Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 302011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA...IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
NOTHING MUCH GOING ON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT THE FEW STORMS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH MODELS AND
NEIGHBORS FORECASTS. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAND UNTIL A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL...TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 35

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SET UP OVER THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERING DETAILS ON WHEN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SCATTERED PRECIP DURING
THE DAY AND ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MCB WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z
FOR A FEW HOURS. 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE LIGHT FOG
PERHAPS AT BTR AND HDC...BUT WITH OBS THIS MORNING NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING LESS THAN 7 MILES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

ANSORGE

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 3 FEET /MAINLY OUTER WATERS/ WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINANTS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ANSORGE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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