Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 020106
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STABLE AND SAMPLING A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PW VALUE OF 1.26 IS ACTUALLY
THE NEW MIN FOR TODAY IN THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY. THE TEMPERATURE TRACE
FOLLOWS THE DRY ADIABAT TO AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 800 MB. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. DRIER AIR MADE INROADS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAS BEEN MAINLY OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF MOBILE BAY THAT
COULD CONCEIVABLY APPROACH OUR PORTION OF MISSISSIPPI SOUND IN A
FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S...DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...SO HEAT INDICES HAVE ONLY TOPPED OUT AROUND
100 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. CONVECTION
COULD CREEP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE
LIMITED TO LOWER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. AS FRONT
WASHES OUT AND WINDS TURN ONSHORE TOMORROW...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL BEGIN...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE 20-40 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FAR SOUTH.

EXPECT FAIRLY COMFORTABLE LOWS NEAR 70 NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
10-12 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RETURN TO THE MID 70S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HEAT
INDEX READINGS LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE 100-105 RANGE...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN 2/3 OF
THE GULF AND COASTAL STATES. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. IN OTHER
WORDS...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY OVER
LAND...AND EARLY TO MID MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS.
EXPECT DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 70S. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS OVER LAND AREAS. TRANS-GULF FLIGHTS
WILL ENCOUNTER LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS 30 TO 80 MILES SOUTH
OF LA COAST THROUGH 03Z. 24/RR

MARINE...

FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND SEAS IN THE NEAR SHORE AND
SOUND WATERS NOCTURNALLY DUE TO DRY AIR MIXING OVER VERY WARM
WATER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ABATE WITH EACH
PASSING NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE DISSIPATES AND DEEPER LAYERED
SOUTHERLY FLOW ONSETS EARLY IN WEEK. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE
ZONE. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  71  96  75  96 /   0  10   0  20
ASD  71  94  76  93 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  77  93  79  92 /   0  10  10  30
GPT  75  91  77  91 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  73  92  75  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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