Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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332
FXUS64 KLIX 120931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
BUT TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN PREV NIGHTS. PATCHY FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GRT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION REINFORCING THE
NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE ALSO DRIVING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DRY FRONT.
THE REGION WILL SEE A DECENT COOL DOWN WITH THIS FRONT AS H925 TEMPS
DROP TO AROUND 5-7C WHICH IS ABOUT 6-7C DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

HEADING INTO SUN WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE PATTERN BREAK DOWN WITH
THE MID LVLS BECOMING ZONAL. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION SAT NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST CENTERING OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO SRLY FLOW ALLOWING MOISTURE TO
RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM ON MON WHICH WILL BE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE SUN. TEMPS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
ON SUN GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. AS FOR LOWS SUN
MORNING...IT WILL BE QUITE COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
DOMINATING THE REGION AS OF SUN MORNING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
20S. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT FREEZE OVER A FEW LOCATIONS. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MDL CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
GOOD. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES MON
AND A QUIET FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCE B/T THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST
IS WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS FOR THE SECOND OF THE WORK WEEK BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT.

THE TIME FRAME WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT IN THE FCST WILL BE MON. THE
MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE A STRONG PAC NW S/W WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHARPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY MON.
THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY CAUSING H5 HGHT FALLS OF 12-13DM THROUGH THE DAY MON. IN
RESPONSE TO THE S/W A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
ARKLAMISS OVERNIGHT SUN. THE SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK EAST
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOISTURE WILL FINALLY INCREASE WITH PWS
EXPECTED TO BE ABV 1". THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE HGHTS FALLS COMBINING
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
PROBLEM LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHRA DURING THE DAY MON. AS FOR
TSRA...STILL EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA AS THERE WILL BE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH COMBINING WITH A MID LVL JET APPROACHING
100KTS PUNCHING INTO THE REGION.

BOTH THE S/W AND SFC LOW WILL PUSH OUT MON NIGHT WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING BACK IN BUT THIS WILL BE ONLY TEMPORARILY. THE
PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH NW FLOW OVER THE REGION TUE
BREAKING DOWN OVER THE WEEK AND A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA
THU/FRI. LL TEMPS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE AFTER TUE WITH TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... SOME SHALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG WAS DEVELOPING AT KMCB
AND SPREADING SOUTH TO AFFECT KBTR-KHDC-KASD BEFORE 12Z. IFR CIGS
AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CAVOK BY 1430Z...THEN CONVECTIVE
CLOUD BASES AT LOW END VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
NORTH WINDS BEFORE 13/09Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE... MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN WEAKENING HIGH OVER
CENTRAL GULF AND ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT
WILL BE ENTERING NORTH GULF OVERNIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING BUT SETTLE TO BELOW CRITERIA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH STRONGER CLIPPER FRONT MOVES THROUGH COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  41  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  73  45  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  71  45  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  71  49  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  69  45  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  71  44  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 24/RR



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