Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 241721
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1221 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind gusts above 20
knots possible at most terminals this afternoon but should ease
around sunset. Cannot totally rule out a little radiation fog at
normally prone terminals around sunrise Thursday, but threat too
low to mention in forecast. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

UPDATE...

Updated the marine/coastal waters forecast to add a Small Craft
Advisory valid through this evening for the tidal lakes, and all
waters are now under the advisory for winds mostly just above 20
knots and associated hazardous waves/seas to small craft.

Also updated the forecast to account for lower dewpoint
temperatures and relative humidity that had moved into/developed
over the forecast area faster than expected due to strong
subsidence behind the cold front. Remainder of forecast appeared
on track at this time. Enjoy the rather pleasant conditions for
late May, as conditions more typical of June and summer will
return Friday into the holiday weekend. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 906 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
No problems with launch this morning, which burst near Cook`s
Corner Road in central George Co MS at an altitude of 20.1 miles.

A profile somewhat representative of a frontal zone in that there
is some noisiness and varied degrees of saturation below a
subsidence inversion based at 6200 ft up to 8400 ft, then pseudo-
adiabatic thereafter to a low tropopause found at 173 mb,
temperature -59.5C. A higher tropopause is noted at 90mb, -67C.
Sounding becomes quite dry above 15kft. Precipitable water is 1.34
inches.

Winds were NW 10-30 kt surface to 3200 ft, then SW 30-150 kt
above. Peak wind was 241/150kt at 38.3kft. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Cold front slowly making its way through the area this morning.
Strong short wave moving out of the base of the upper trough as
well. But strong dry air intrusion from 850mb up is coming in
ahead of the actual cold front. This deep layer is devouring
anything that tries to develop along and ahead of the front. This
case is just the opposite over the gulf this morning where severe
thunderstorms are developing. Once the front moves through, dry
air will gradually move in behind it making for a very nice few
days. Friday will be a transition day as southerly winds begin to
bring back deep moisture ahead of another front that is expected
to start affecting the area over the weekend. Memorial Day may see
some thunderstorm activity, but there may be a few windows of
opportunity for outdoor activities honoring our fallen veterans.

LONG TERM...
The cold front stalls along the coast through what looks to be a
good part of next week. Activity along the boundary may also
become a diurnal hit and miss each day. A few upper disturbances
may also move along the stalled trough interface to produce some
overnight thunderstorms one or two nights as well. Resolving this
may come on a daily basis.

AVIATION...
BKN015-030 ceilings with some -shra will move through this
morning. There is the possibility of a TSRA for south shore
terminals but chances are not high enough to set for any one site.
Once the cold front moves through later this morning, skies will
begin to clear and VFR conditions should remain through the
remainder of the taf period.

MARINE...
A cold front will move through this morning causing winds to
rapidly increase from the NW up to 25kt. Small craft advisories
have been continued for this through this evening. Winds should
start to lay late tonight and become light westerly by Thursday
morning. A steady southerly fetch is expected to begin Thursday
night and remain into next week.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...Blue.
DEPLOYED...None.
ACTIVATION...None.
ACTIVITIES...Monitoring Mississippi River flooding.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  52  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  77  55  84  64 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  79  56  84  67 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  79  60  84  68 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  80  59  84  70 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  79  55  83  65 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-534.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534.

&&

$$



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