Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 272149
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO WARM ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. COLD SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE BLIZZARD SYSTEM OFF THE
THE EAST COAST WILL BE ADVANCIN SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN THE
DRY BUT SOMEWHAT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THAT AIR
MASS MOVES EAST AND MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY ON THURSDAY FOR A
WARMING TREND THAT SHOULD RESEMBLE TODAY`S TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...
A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-PLAINS STATES THURSDAY
WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDING FROM CANADA AND WEDGING INTO THE
AREA WHILE THE BULK OF COLD AIR SHUNTS EAST. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF
LOW DYNAMICS DEVELOPS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT EVENTUALLY INDUCES
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WEST GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO BRING A GOOD COVER OF COLD RAIN AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HELD AT 70 PERCENT BUT
SHOULD FLUSH OUT IN LATE EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING
NORTH IN THE APPALCHIANS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS LIKE KMCB AND KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...
A BIT OF WIND ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME MODEST ADVECTION AND DRAINAGE
IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF. WINDS VEER TO EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AND ONSHORE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BETTER SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THOUGH BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR 15 KT WITH SOME GUSTINESS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT DAYBREAK OVER THE SOUNDS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...SOME GRADIENT RESPONSE AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WEST GULF AND BEGINS TO RIDE NNE
ALONG PACIFIC MARITIME FRONT SUNDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  39  69  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  42  67  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  42  62  44  70 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  46  62  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  43  59  46  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  40  61  43  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






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