Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 281729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1229 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

VFR conditions all terminals on prevailing light north winds. KNEW
may see some nocturnal enhancement due to marine instability.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 830 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

The sounding this morning is generally still similar to the past
couple days. The drier airmass has not made it to the Gulf coast
just yet, but is close. A drier profile is evident to the north on
the Jackson sounding. Winds are northwest beginning just above the
surface with a peak wind of 95 kts at 200 mb.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

Cold front just moving into the CWA yesterday morning was "supposed"
to move to around the gulf coast but that didn`t quite happen
despite the northerly winds moving well into the coastal waters
south of the area. Upper level low centered around the Great Lakes
didn`t move much which is likely the biggest inhibiting factor for
fropa. Latest surface obs do indicate that the boundary has made
some southward progress overnight and is somewhere in the vicinity
of the I-10/12 corridor. Daytime heating will likely put a halt to
that movement today until the secondary surge moves in later this
week. So a generally tranquil day is expected with partly cloudy
skies except for locations along the LA coast and offshore waters.
It`s in that portion of the CWA isolated/scattered convection is
most likely to occur. Temperatures should top out in the mid/upper
80s which is at to a degree or 2 below yesterday.

Models still show that the upper low to the north will steadily move
south to the Ohio River Valley and generally remain in place through
the rest of this week. The aforementioned second shot of cold/dry
air will spread to the region early Thursday morning. This will be
the first real fall-like air mass to impact the region since May.
Temperatures will drop a good 5 to 10 degrees through Friday. Expect
Friday to be the coldest with morning lows in the mid 50s to lower
60s and highs barely reaching 80 degrees that afternoon. A gradual
moderation will ensue this weekend as the trough lifts out and 500mb
heights begin to increase due to the upper low weakening and
tracking off to the northeast. Rainfall may not return till
possibly sometime later next week.


AVIATION... Cold front will move south of all terminals by the 12z
taf period.
Behind the front, VFR conditions will continue through the next
several days.

MARINE... Leading edge of shallow frontal zone continues to slowly
push off the coast this morning. The boundary is expected to stall
later today over the outer coastal waters. The front will get
another push by Thursday causing it to move past all coastal waters
and into the central gulf. Better advection takes place Thursday
with offshore winds likely to respond to boundary layer instability
Thursday night and possibly again Friday night. Northeasterly winds
should then prevail over the coastal water for the duration of this
forecast package.


DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  86  60  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  63  82  54 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  88  66  85  55 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  88  71  85  64 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  87  66  85  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  87  59  85  54 /  10  10   0   0


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