Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 300010
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
510 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...A COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE SANTA YNEZ
MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND TO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE RANGE
AND IN THE VICINITY OF CANYONS. THE GUSTY SUNDOWNER TYPE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 154. OTHERWISE LOW TO MID
LEVEL DESENDING NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR SHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE CENTAL COAST THIS MORNING HAD MIXED
OUT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR NEAR SHORE AT THIS TIME. A NARROW BAND OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BORDERING THE OFFSHORE AND COASTAL WATERS WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO MIX OUT WHILE MOVING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE MARINE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND PROBABLY REMAIN
ISOLATED NEAR SHORE. THE CLOUD FIELD WILL REDEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND EXPAND AND BECOME ORGANIZED AND REDEVELOP
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROBABLY RANGE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY STRONG ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY FROM YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A MODERATE
ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE
COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 3 TO 6
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL BY TUESDAY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
LITTLE CHANGE WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...GUIDANCE BETWEEN SUITES WERE CONSISTENT WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES EAST AND SHIFTS INLAND.
OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
AS A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MARINE
LAYER PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/0010Z

AT 0000Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS AROUND 800 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS AROUND 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 00Z INLAND TAFS  AND KSBA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER COASTAL TAFS. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT NO CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KLGB AND KLAX AFTER 08Z.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR LLWS AROUND KSBA AFTER
23Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z THIS EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DENSE FOG FROM 09Z-14Z.

KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE AIRFIELD THRU SUNDAY MORNING. 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR
CIGS AFTER 11Z-14Z

&&

.MARINE...29/200 PM.

ALL OUTER WATERS WILL HAVE NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INNER WATERS...80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AND LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE. ZONE 645 FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL WILL
ALSO EXPERIENCE SCA LEVEL WINDS AND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SIMILAR PATTERN COULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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