Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 240617
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW MEXICO AND UTAH CONTINUES TO EXPAND WEST. TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKENING THIS EVENING. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE IMMEDIATE CENTRAL
COAST. A MUCH BETTER MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK IS FORMING OFF THE
CENTRAL COAST AND MOVING ASHORE THIS EVENING. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE PACKAGE FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS THIS
EVENING. KSBA-KSMX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TIGHTENED TO
-4.7 MB THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE SURFACED
BETWEEN GOLETA AND GAVIOTA THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FOR
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EDDY CIRCULATION FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR COAST AND VALLEY AREAS. WE MAY ALSO SEE THE
RETURN OF A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LYR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND COASTAL LA COUNTY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER SAT, THOUGH
EVEN WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLING TREND HIGHS WILL STILL BE 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...VERY LITTLE CHANGE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
TO RESTRENGTHEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND PUSH TEMPS BACK UP A FEW
DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY HINT AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF IS ACTUALLY A
LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS SO WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

24/0600Z

THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHC OF LIFR CONDS AT KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB FROM
10Z TO 16Z. LIFR CONDS ARE LIKELY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION THROUGH 16Z.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF...EXCEPT FOR A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...23/900 PM.

FOR OUTER WATERS...CONFIDENCE WANING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE....HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

FOR INNER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/MW
AVIATION...HALL
MARINE...HALL
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.