Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 231414
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
700 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... THE WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG...AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WITH...WITH A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
IN COASTAL AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY... AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION TODAY...SO WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...SOME STRATOCU WILL LIKELY FORM. IN GENERAL...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY IN MOST AREAS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THOSE REACHED ON FRI...BUT SHOULD STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE VLYS...MTNS AND DESERTS. STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL
MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY DAY IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA TODAY...ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL BE LOCATED SE OF THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE WRF IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS OR THE EC.
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ON ALL MODELS IS VERY SIMILAR... KEEPING
THE CENTER ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OWING TO ITS
TRACK ACROSS LAND...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THAT HAVING BEEN STATED...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS L.A. COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS TONIGHT. N-S GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY...AND THROUGH THE I-5
CORRIDOR.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS TO THE SE. SOME
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

A WEAK FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. EXACTLY HOW ORGANIZED STRATUS BECOMES W OF THE MTNS
SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT THE WRF WOULD
SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY EDGE UP A BIT
MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.


.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC WILL LIKELY KEEP
COOL CONDITIONS TUE...WITH PLENTY OF NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT A
WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON WED...SO THE EXPECTED
WARMING TREND MAY BE TEMPERED A BIT. STILL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
UP SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION THU AND FRI...WITH A DECREASE IN
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1200Z...

AT 1210Z...THE MARINE INVERSION WAS 2900 FEET DEEP WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 4.5 DEGREES C NEAR LAX.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. CIGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...SALINAS VALLEY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT -RA OR DZ...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE TERRAIN.

LAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH 19Z. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL BECOME SCT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF MVFR CIGS RETURN THIS EVENING MAY
DIFFER UP TO 2 HRS FROM TAF TIME OF 03Z.

KBUR...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF AS VARIABLE CIGS MAY
AFFECT THE SITE TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR. TIMING/HEIGHT OF CIGS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS LOWER CERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...23/300 AM.

OUTER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR ALL OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
MORNING WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WINDS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THE SCA WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.

INNER WATERS...THERE WILL BE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS. LOCAL SCA GUSTS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
PZZ655 THIS EVENING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN/SMITH
SYNOPSIS...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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