Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
272
FXUS66 KLOX 111057
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
257 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND A COOLING TREND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-SAT)

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED
EASTWARD...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROTECTING
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM ANY RAIN CHANCES. WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES
WHILE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT TO
THE NORTH. THE HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
L.A/VTU COUNTIES...A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVERALL...WHILE MOST OTHER
AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 70S...AND 60S ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
LVLS LOWERING A BIT...LOOK FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF
COOLING...ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE MORNING OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL BE VERY WEAK BEFORE TURNING WEAKLY ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR LA/VTU COAST AND
VALLEYS...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.

ON SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING DRY SYSTEM WILL
CAUSE TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN WITH ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR AREAS N OF
POINT SANTA BARBARA...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S FOR L.A./VTU COUNTIES. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SBA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST...AS WELL AS THE I-5
CORRIDOR AND WIND PRONE AREAS FROM SANTA CLARITA TO THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY INTO THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLE THE SBA SOUTH COAST
SATURDAY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING TROUGH...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LATEST 00Z-06Z NAM WRF WAS NOW
SHIFTING THE NORTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE WHAT WAS ONCE SHOWING SOME COOLING SUNDAY WILL
NOW WARM UP QUICKLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE SANTA ANA WINDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST FOR THE MARATHON RUNNERS...BUT TEMPS
WILL CLIMB QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS KEEPS THE SFC GRADIENTS NORTHERLY UNTIL SUNDAY EVE BEFORE
SHIFTING NE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM
USUALLY DOES A BETTER JOB INDICATING THE WIND SHIFT DUE TO THE
SURFACE HIGH PLACEMENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

FOR SUNDAY THEN...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD JUMP UP 4-7 DEGREES INTO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE L.A/VTU COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS SUNDAY
MORNING. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY MODERATE IN THE USUAL WIND PRONE
AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A WEAK
CUT OFF LOW PLACED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF BAJA. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH APPROACHING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY ENVELOPING THE CUTOFF LOW. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WERE THE USUAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWING THIS. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL
TOTALS LOOK ANEMIC...BUT ITS STILL EARLY. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...11/11Z...WILL BE UPDATED WITH 12Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...10/800 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...SCA WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY SCA
WINDS...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 34-35. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
      SUNDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 39. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO NOON PST
      SUNDAY FOR ZONES 40-41-87. (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM
      FRIDAY TO 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ZONE 645. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
      PST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 673-676. (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN
AVIATION...BRUNO
MARINE...BRUNO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.