Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
140 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A weak cold front will move through Eastern North Carolina today.
High pressure will build over the region Saturday with another
cold front crossing Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure
will rebuild over the area through the middle of next week.


As of 950 AM Fri...Latest sfc analysis shows the cold front north
of the Albemarle Sound and extending into Central NC. The front
will push through the area and be off the coast by late morning
into early afternoon. Radar showed a few isolated to scattered
showers this morning over the Albemarle Sound and moved towards
the OBX area. Now, most of the showers have either diminished or
pushed off the coast.

High pressure will build in from the northwest behind the front
today, bringing northerly winds across the area, though very
little change to the airmass. Low level thickness values and
northerly flow support highs ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s
for the northeast counties and Outer Banks...and mid 70s across
the southwestern counties.


As of 255 AM Fri...High pressure will build over the region
tonight. Good radiational cooling expected overnight with mostly
clear skies and calm winds...with lows dropping into the mid to
upper 40s inland and low 50s along the coast.


As of 330 AM Friday...Dry regime expected to persist through
period with broad surface and upper ridge prevailing. Only
interruption will be a quick short wave trough and associated dry
cold front late Sunday night/early Monday. Temps expected to be
5-10 degrees above normal most of period.

Saturday-Sunday...Upper riding and winds becoming west-southwest
will lead to a warming trend over weekend. Increasing low level
thicknesses and downsloping winds will likely result in diurnal
temp rises near 30 degrees for inland sites Saturday with highs in
mid to upper 70s after lows in mid-upper 40s. Southwest winds will
keep temps in mid 50s to mid 60s Saturday night and push inland
highs into low-mid 80s Sunday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Shearing short wave trough in W-NW flow
aloft will push a dry cold front through area late Sunday night
into early Monday. CAA will produce cooling trend but will be
offset by heights rebuilding quickly behind short wave, allowing
temps to remain above normal Monday-Tuesday with highs from mid
60s northern OBX to mid 70s inland.

Wednesday-Thursday...continued ridging surface and aloft will
produce warming trend for Wednesday with inland highs near 80
again. More vigorous short wave trough will approach from NW
Thursday with weak initial dry cold front passage indicated during
the day Thursday with only minor cooling of warm temps.


Short Term /through 18z Saturday/...
As of 130 PM Friday...High confidence of VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. A cold front has pushed through all TAF
sites late this morning/early afternoon as winds have shifted
northerly. Dry high pressure will build into the area and dominate
the region through tomorrow. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots this
afternoon and then becoming calm tonight. Winds will veer SE
Saturday afternoon as the high pushes farther south. Not
expecting fog development tonight under a dry airmass, but cannot
out a brief period of shallow fog for inland TAF sites

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 am Friday...VFR/dry weather forecast through the
period. High pressure across the southeast states will be the main
feature into Sunday. A dry cold front will pass through late
Sunday night, but little moisture associated with it so no rain is


Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 950 AM Fri...Latest buoy obs show WSW winds 10 to 20 KT
with seas 3-4 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. There can be
occasional gusts up to 25 kt across the outer central waters this
morning. The front will push through the waters late morning and
early afternoon with winds becoming northerly 10-20 KT and seas
around 2-4 ft across the southern waters and 3-5 ft northern
waters. High pressure will build in behind the front late today
and tonight. N/NE winds 10-15 kt tonight will gradually diminish
to 5-10 kt late with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Friday...Surface high moving across waters from NW to
SE will result in light/variable winds Sat morning becoming W-SW
and increasing 10-15 KT Sat evening into Sunday. Dry cold front
will push through from NW-N late Sunday night with post-frontal
surge of N-NE winds around 15 KT moving across water Monday. NE
winds will gradually diminish Mon night into Tuesday.

Wave guidance in general agreement of heights mainly 2-3 feet
Sat-Sun, building to 4-5 feet Monday and subsiding to 2-3 feet




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