Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 032350
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
750 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON HAS SINCE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
WEAK AIRASS IN PLACE...CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY INLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...THIS WILL
HELP TO MIX OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LOWS
AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM THU...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH A NELY SURGE INCREASING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. FRONTAL
FORCING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND BUT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS WILL LEAD TO A MORE BROADBRUSHED AND BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED/SHOWERY BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL (ONSHORE) FLOW, CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXPECTED UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A MULTI LAYERED RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE (THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA?) WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRODUCING
A CYCLONIC AND MOIST ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WITH PW VALUES AOA
1.75" SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT
TIMES. FORECAST DIFFICULTIES ARISE WHEN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN
THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
A RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW RETREATING
TO THE GULF COAST AND FILLING AND WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING LEADING
TO A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
MEANDER OFF OF THE COAST THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL TRY TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP...MAINLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THU...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...CALM WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING IFR OR BELOW AFTER 05-06Z THROUGH ABOUT
13Z-14Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY WITH NE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM THU...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE WATER
TONIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT MAINLY
OUT OF THE S TO SW, THOUGH SOUTHERN WATERS COULD SEE SW WINDS UP
TO 15 KT THIS EVENING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING N AROUND 5-10 KT IN THE
MORNING WITH A NE SURGE INCREASING TO WINDS TO 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM THURSDAY...VEERING MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW 10
TO 20 KT EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS 15 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS OR
DISSIPATES. THE MODERATE POST FRONTAL FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE STEEP 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WITH SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/SK/LEP
MARINE...JME/SK/LEP



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