Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301403
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUE...FCST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISC...MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPS TODAY WITH
HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND TROF DEVELOPING TO THE W. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE A BIT THRU THE DAY BUT STILL REMAINS LIMITED AND MAJORITY
OF MDLS KEEP CONVECTION W OF REGION THRU 00Z SO WILL KEEP MENTION
OF PRECIP OUT. INCREASING LOW LVL THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS
REACHING 90 TO 95 INLAND WITH MAINLY UPR 80S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM TUE...MOISTURE WILL CONT TO CREEP UP TONIGHT AS SW
FLOW INCREASES. MDLS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER FORCING AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE W. HAVE CHC POPS DEVELOPING INLAND
AND SLIGHT CHC CST. MODEST SW SFC FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A WARM NIGHT
WITH LOWS 70 TO 75 INLAND AND 75 TO 80 CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DURING AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE HEATING PERIOD. THE REGION WILL BE IN BROAD SW FLOW
WITH SEA BREEZE INITIATING A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT NEAR 90 INLAND TO MID/UPR 80S COAST.
WED NIGHT LOWS DROP BACK TO LOW 70S INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...30/00Z MODEL SUITE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER E
CONUS TROUGH ON THUR. IN ADDITION...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY INLAND AS INC PWS AND GOOD MID AND UPR SUPPORT
COMBINE TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
LINGERED THE HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ACTING TO KEEP PRECIP THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MAY BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GIVEN 84 HOURS OUT AND IN CONVECTIVE SEASON...DECIDED
TO CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW. INCREASING SRLY 850MB FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH STALLED LOW LEVEL SFC BOUNDARY OVER E NC. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND INTERACTING
WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. ECM INDICATES LAYER MIXING RATIOS
INC TO AROUND 16 G/KG AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
MAY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING HOURS...ESP NEAR THE COAST. EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE 80S AND
KEEP AFTERNOON CAPES RELATIVELY LOW. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE COAST FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMO...NEAR 70 INLAND TO MID 70S COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN INTO THE 4TH
OF JULY WEEKEND AS UPR AND SFC PATTERN DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF
CHANGING ACCORDING TO NAEFS PROBABILITIES AND ENSEMBLE FIELD FROM
BOTH ECMWF AND NCEP. WILL ADVERTISE 30-40 POPS FOR NOW DUE TO
DAYS 5-6 FORECAST PERIODS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP LIKELY DURING
THE CONVECTIVE HEATING PERIOD...AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NEAR AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH AROUND 90 DURING THE DAY AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT PC TO MSUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND SFC TRF DEVELOPING TO THE WITH W. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF REGION LATE TODAY THEN DRIFT
TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. MOST MDLS SHOW
CONVECTION DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING SO GIVEN LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CVRG WILL NOT ADD ANY MENTION TO TAFS
YET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSHOWERS
THUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY AM FOG/STRATUS
AT TERMINALS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 5-15 KNOTS BY
DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUE...LIGHT WSW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SSW
AND GRAD INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS AS
SFC TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W. GRDNT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...POSS SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING EVENING. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET LATE
TODAY. SOME 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CNTRL WTRS
TONIGHT AND CONT SCA FROM LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH KEEPING THE
MARINE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY
BE 5-15 KNOTS ON THE RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...10-20 KNOTS ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIND WAVE DOMINATED 6 FOOT SEAS FOR OREGON
INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT SECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO
THE TIGHTENED SW GRADIENT. FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA BY THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HERE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/BTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RF/TL
MARINE...RF/TL



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