Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 161418

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
918 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

High pressure will build in from the west tonight through
early next week. A complex frontal system and low pressure area
may affect the area by mid to late week.


As of 915 AM Saturday...High pres will cont over the region
with mainly sunny skies and cool temps...highs upr 40s to lower

Prev disc...Another chilly start this morning with temperatures
in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations. Strong high
pressure centered over Alabama will continue to build east
across the Carolinas today. High clouds are now well to our
south and we should have a mostly sunny day, but temperatures
will be chilly as weak cold air advection continues. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Winds have subsided inland and NW breezes should subside near
the coast this morning.


As of 335 AM Saturday...Axis of surface ridge will be over the
eastern Carolinas tonight. With generally clear skies, expect
another cold night with most areas in the upper 20s to lower
30s, except mid 30s along the Outer Banks.


As of 3 AM Sat...Weak ridging builds into the area this
weekend through early next week followed by a complex system
moving into the region mid to late week.

Sunday...Weak ridging and sfc high pressure will keep
conditions dry. High pressure moves offshore Sun with
increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching shortwave.
Return flow will bring a warming trend Sun with highs expected
in the mid 50s to around 60.

Sunday night through Tuesday night...A slightly better chance
of rain expected early next week, though 16/00Z global model
suite has backed off on strength of this shortwave as it dampens
moving towards the East Coast from the MS River Valley. Have
lowered POP`s to around 20 percent for the area through this
time frame. Temps expected to be above normal this period with
predominant SW to W flow across the region with highs generally
in the 60s, warmest day on Tuesday where some places may reach
70. Lows will be mild in the 40s inland to around 50 coast.

Wednesday through Thursday...Have raised POP`s this time frame.
Tricky forecast for the mid week period, as timing of a
southern stream system ejecting out of the SW CONUS could bring
a good shot of rain across the region mid week. 16/00Z
operational ECMWF/CMC/GFS all have the compact shortwave and
attendant sfc low moving through the SE CONUS Wednesday or
Thursday. Taking a look at the ensemble suite for this system
however, still indicates quite a bit of uncertainty with timing
and strength of this feature. Also, would like to see more run-
to-run continuity amongst models before raising POP`s any
higher than low chance at this time. Temps during this period
will remain above climo as heights/thicknesses will be above
normal for late December.

Friday...It appears that the potential mid week system will be
offshore by late in the work week, and behind it there is a
fairly good signal that heights/thicknesses rise and warmer and
drier pattern takes hold temporarily with building SW Atlantic


Short Term /through 12Z Sunday/...
As of 645 AM Saturday...A few patchy high clouds are being
observed over the far CWA, but generally clear skies expected
today and tonight. High confidence continues for VFR conditions
through this TAF cycle. Winds should diminish with NW winds of
10 knots or less expected for today into tonight with clear

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...High pressure builds into the region over the
weekend but will see increasing clouds Sun in advance of the
next system approaching the region. Rain chances however will be
very low as this system will be quite weak. A better chance of
rain and sub VFR expected by mid week as potential stronger
system moves into the area.


Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 915 AM Saturday...Dropped SCA central wtrs as winds cont
to decrease and that trend will cont today with wind dir
becoming more W this aftn.

Prev disc...Based on continued gusts to around 25 knots off the
central waters, have extended the SCA until 16Z for the Oregon
Inlet to Cape Lookout leg. Seas have subsided and are generally
3-4 feet. Model trends are for diminishing winds later this
morning as axis of surface high pressure builds east from
Alabama to the eastern Carolinas by tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Sat...Winds will be generally SW Sunday through Tue
as zonal flow takes hold. Good boating conditions as the winds
will only be in the 5-15 kt range through the period with
generally 1-3 ft seas. Winds increase to 10-20 kt Tue night
ahead of a potential stronger system that moves through mid week.
Seas will increase to 2-4 ft with locally higher seas by Tue
night into Wed.




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