Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251111
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
711 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass will linger into Monday as a cold front
approaches from the northeast. The front will meander just off
the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in from
the west Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 705 AM Sunday...Only a few spotty light showers now
observed inland as most of the precipitation is now offshore. A
few showers and embedded thunderstorms may skirt the coast from
the southwest over the next few hours. Have scaled PoPs back to
chance coast to slight chance inland with no PoPs over the far
northwestern counties by midday. Latest high-resolution HRRR
and NSSL WRF models indicate some redevelopment along the sea
breeze this afternoon. Stream of deep-layer moisture indicated
by water-vapor satellite will keep skies on the cloudy side
today, but there should be enough breaks in the clouds to allow
high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sunday...Latest GFS and ECMWF models show ribbon of
deeper moisture and omega right along and just off the coast
tonight and will keep low chance PoPs over the coastal/Sounds
portion of our CWA tonight with no PoPs inland. Numerical
guidance indicates some lower dewpoints and slightly cooler low
temperature readings tonight behind weak frontal boundary with
mid 60s inland ranging to mid 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Scattered showers expected Monday and Tuesday.
Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into Eastern NC
Wednesday through late week. Typical summertime pattern
re-develops late week and next weekend.

Monday through Tuesday...Frontal boundary will linger along the
coast through Monday morning, and could see isolated to
scattered showers along the coast. A strong mid-level shortwave
will move through Virginia and the Carolinas Tuesday,
supporting scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Marginal instability but strong shear and much cooler temps
aloft, 500mb temps drop to -12/-13C, could see some small hail.
Will continue chance pops. Will keep sc thunder mention both
days, but think it will be isolated. Low level thickness values
and pred N/NE flow support highs in the low/mid 80s Mon and
Tue, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will move
overhead on Wednesday, and off the coast late week into the
weekend. While overhead, this high will provide a somewhat
refreshing airmass with lower humidities and cooler temps.
Temperatures quickly warm back up however, as southwest winds
return on Thursday and highs creep back to the upper 80s/90
degrees late week and the weekend. Low temps for the period will
range mostly from the upper 50s/low 60s inland to upper 60s/low
70s along the coast. Typical summertime redevelops late week
into next weekend, with troughing inland and high pressure
offshore. Dry wx will continue through late week, with scattered
diurnal convective chances next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 12Z Monday/...
As of 705 AM Sunday...IFR/LIFR conditions continue at KOAJ/KISO
and KPGV early this morning, but with better mixing expected,
these conditions should improve to VFR by 14z or so. Anticipate
mostly VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF as most of
the expected precipitation remains east of the TAF sites
although a stray shower or thunderstorm could occur near the sea
breeze this afternoon. Numerical guidance and NARRE model does
indicate some potential for fog late tonight given light winds
and wet ground, so will include a period of MVFR vsbys after 08z
tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Scattered showers and storms may produce brief period of
sub-VFR conditions Tuesday. As usual, patchy fog/stratus will
be possible most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 710 AM Sunday...Based on trends from buoy observations,
have dropped the SCA south of Ocracoke early with seas at 5 feet
now off of New River Inlet with winds at or below 20 knots. Will
continue the SCA from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke through 10 AM as
seas continue to hover around 6 feet at Diamond Buoy with gusts
into the lower 20s. Winds should subside to 10 knots or less
with seas 2-4 feet by later this afternoon into tonight. Winds
will veer to more W/WNW later tonight behind an initial cold
front ahead of a stronger front around Tuesday night or so.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Generally benign and pleasant boating
conditions expected through the period. Models now showing a
stronger surge behind the initial front Monday morning.
Increased winds to 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft, but there is the
potential for a brief period of 15-20 kt Mon morning. Surface
high pressure will build in over the area Tuesday night, crest
over the waters Wednesday, moving offshore Thursday. N/NW 5-10
kt Tue, N/NE 5-15 kt Wed, becoming S/SE 5-15 kt Thu, with seas
generally 2-3 ft.

&&


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD



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