Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 302237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND STALL ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND AN
INLAND TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 623 PM THU...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY WITH FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HELPING TO
PUSH VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TOWARD SHORE. ALSO A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...VERY SLOW MOVEMENT WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT WIND AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STALLED ALONG
THE COAST. THE EXACT LOCATION WILL INFLUENCE WHERE PRECIP
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES RIDE THE BOUNDARY. AS FOR FRIDAY...A MORE POTENT
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MERGE WITH THIS BOUNDARY HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME LIFT. HOWEVER...WITH THIS LOW MOVING NORTH AND
EAST...THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THIS MERGER SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE. IT
MAY ALSO CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS
IT LIFT NORTH. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG
THE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE...CONVERGENCE
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE CHC POPS CONFINED ALONG THE COAST
AS DYNAMICS LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE IN THIS AREA. IF THIS STALLED
BOUNDARY MEANDERS INLAND OR OFFSHORE...THIS WILL ULTIMATELY
INFLUENCE THE LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS DEVELOP.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SIMILAR TREND TO PREVIOUS DAYS...PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO LESS. HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...WITH THE GFS/NAM KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER OFFSHORE
AND THEN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SYSTEM...KEEPING
THE FRONT CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TRENDS OF
WPC AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FAVORING A SLIGHTLY DRIER ECMWF
SCENARIO. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING WITH THE FRONT...HIGHEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP
ALONG THE COAST WITH GULF MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. LOOKS LIKE THINGS START TO DRY OUT MON NIGHT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MID WEEK AS GFS SHOWS TROUGHING ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND PUSHES A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED/THU
WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BERMUDA HIGH
AS MAIN FEATURE AND TROUGHING INLAND. WILL TREND WITH WPC/ECMWF
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGH OFFSHORE AND PRED S/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE SC POPS...THINKING PRIMARILY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AT THIS TIME.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S/LOW 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 636 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAF
SITES THIS LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING CUMULUS AND VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS MOVES NORTH OFFSHORE. MODELS
DIFFERING IN TIMING OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME FOG/LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO
SEE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...WITH BEST CHANCES AT EWN/OAJ.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ESP FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM THU...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS LATE AFTERNOON RUNNING 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH
SEAS IN SOUTHERN WATERS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AFTER LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...FLOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACTS ON MARINE...OTHER THAN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL SURGE IN WINDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
OR JUST OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRED S/SW FLOW
RETURNS FRI NIGHT 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
THE DAY SAT WITH INCREASING SSW WINDS 10-15KT CONT INTO SUN. A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUN NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TUE...WITH LINGERING 6FT SEAS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/LEP
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...LEP
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/LEP/CQD



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