Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 190453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1253 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A cold front will move into the area late tonight and stall
through the weekend. This front will move south of the area
early next week. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday.
Another cold front will approach the area in the middle of next


As of 1245 AM Saturday...Based on current radar coverage, will
drop PoPs through the remainder of the overnight hours as expect
the overnight to remain dry. Raised minimum temperatures a
degree or so with yet another very warm and muggy night with
lows in the 76-81 degree range.


As of 300 PM Friday...A unstable conditions will continue
tomorrow with CAPE values ranging 3000-3500 J/kg, LI -8 and PW
remaining above 2 inches. The cold front is progged to be over
Eastern NC by morning and becoming stationary. This will lead to
good sfc convergence and result to more showers and
thunderstorms to develop late morning into the evening. Expect
highs near 90 degree inland and mid 80s along the coast.


As of 300 PM Friday...For the remainder of the weekend, A cold
front will move into the area Saturday Night and Sunday but
quickly weaken and waver across the area. The best chance for
storms this weekend will be Saturday Evening and with PWATS
still above 2", locally heavy rain is possible. By Sunday much
drier air moves into the northern 2/3 of the area, with PWATS
here dropping under 1.5". Continued low chance pops across the
southern portion of the area where lingering front or sea breeze
could interact with slightly higher moisture values.

Monday/Tuesday...No big changes to this period of the forecast as a
cold front mentioned above washes out across our area.  The biggest
impact from the front will be the much drier air, with PWATS
mainly around 1.5 inches. This is a bit more moisture than in
previous forecast and carried a low chance of mainly diurnally
driven convection both days. Expect highs in the low 90s inland
to mid 80s along the beaches..

Wednesday/Thursday...The next front will move into NC Wednesday,
and our area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture will
increase ahead of the front through the period. Will maintain
the previous forecast of rain chances close to 50% during this
time with the passage of the front. Temps near 90 Wednesday will
slide back into the 80s Thursday with the passage of the front.

By Friday with the frontal passage through the area, expect much
drier and cooler weather. Lows Friday morning will dip into the
upper 60s to around 70 inland and highs Friday will be in the
lower 80s. Carried low chance PoPs for potential for widely
scattered afternoon convection on Friday should the front
linger in the area, but if trends hold, Friday could be a very
pleasant and dry day.


Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...Skies have cleared over eastern NC with
VFR conditions prevailing. With SW winds at 5-7 knots, think
there will be sufficient low-level mixing to preclude much in
the way of any significant fog or stratus. Scattered showers
and storms expected to develop again Sat afternoon, with best
chances at EWN and OAJ.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Sub VFR conditions possible Saturday
night with the passage of a cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms most likely . shifting to coast during evening
hours. Beyond Saturday night, mainly VFR weather expected
through mid week until the next front approaches Wednesday into
Wednesday Night with a better chance of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms.


Short Term /through Saturday/...
As of 1250 AM Saturday...SW winds continue at 10-20 knots with
a few gusts in excess of 20 knots ahead of a cold front tonight.
Seas are at 2 up to 5 feet at Diamond Buoy. Most guidance winds
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots during the late night hours into
Saturday. Seas on Saturday should run 2-4 feet. Only minor
tweaks to the current marine forecast.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Quiet boating conditions continue on the
waters through early next week. Winds will be 10 KT or less and
waver direction as a front lingers and dissipates in the area
through the area through Monday Night. Seas will run 1 to 3 feet
through that period. Winds become southerly and begin to
increase Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday Night and into
Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. Winds will be
around 15 KT Tuesday Night and increase to 15 to 20 KT Wednesday
with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet.





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