Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280456
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1257 AM SAT...OVERCAST SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY
OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY
SUNRISE...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT AS COLD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO
REMAIN LIQUID...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW OVER INLAND
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADD A
CHILL TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AND A
DEEP UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL REACH ONLY THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY
PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST FLOW HIGHS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER WITH
MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
DURING THE DAY MONDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED SO HAVE KEPT POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40%. THE FRONT WILL
STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY. SEE NO NEED
TO CHANGE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1247 AM SAT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES THIS MORNING AS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE. STILL HAVE ISOLATED MVFR AT THIS TIME BUT OTHERWISE VFR.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY 12Z. RADAR COMPOSITE
SHOWING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ENERGY. WILL
HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY OF THESE SHOWERS. SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT
AFTER THIS ENERGY MOVES THROUGH BY 12Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THEN VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...

AS OF 1253 AM SAT...NORTHERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH 850 FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SEAS DIMINISHING...BUT REMAIN 5 TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

PREV DISC...WINDS/SEAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY
POST FRONTAL FLOW AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY
WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 6 TO 9 FT. HAVE ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO
THE ADVISORIES BASED ON OBSERVATION BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK WINDS
THERE SHOULD SUBSIDE JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING
AT THE SAME TIME AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. ON MONDAY THE HIGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WITH A SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS
ARE FORECAST BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND CAPE LOOKOUT MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY BECOMES PINCHED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS
2-5 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CGG/HSA
MARINE...CGG/JME/HSA/LEP



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