Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262003
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Monday. A cold front will move through Wednesday morning. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday. A cold
front will move through Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...added isolated shower/20 pop/ for western
and southern sections early this evening with radar continuing
to indicate some light activity moving in from off the water.
This activity expected to weaken with loss of heating. Dampening
short wave will move across overnight from w-se but all models
indicate current associated scattered shower activity will dry
up trying to move east and kept no-pop forecast overnight.
Guidance indicates current widespread SCU across area will
thin/scatter this evening, but some additional SCU moving in
overnight with short wave. Light southerly flow will keep min
temps in low-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...mild warm sector conditions will continue
with orientation of offshore surface high and low pressure to
west and north resulting in return of more SW surface flow. Weak
short wave will move across in afternoon and atmosphere will be
slightly more conducive to convective activity to support 20%
POP over coastal plains. Low level thicknesses rising about 10
meters supports max temps 75-80 inland and low-mid 70s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday... Minor tweaks to the long term forecast
as models continue to show good agreement.

Monday night through late Tuesday...High pressure will be somewhat
anchored over Eastern NC through early Tuesday morning as mid-level
shortwave and cold front approaches the area Tuesday. Rain chances
increase Tuesday and taper off from west to east late Tuesday night.
Expect the bulk of the rain to be during the afternoon as peak
heating is max and forecast soundings are showing marginal to
moderate instability. The GFS forecast sounding is a stronger MU
CAPE values increasing to 1400-2000 J/kg, LI around -6 C and 0-6km
shear around 25 kts and then increasing to 45 kt by evening. While
the NAM shows MU CAPE increasing to 1000-1400 J/kg, LI around
-4 to -5 C and 0-6km shear around 25 kts increasing to 50 kts by
early evening. Overall, there is a good chance for thunderstorms as
SPC currently has the area under general thunder, plus with high PW
can not rule out a brief downpour. Expect highs in the upper 70s/low
80s inland to 60s along the coast.

Wednesday through Thursday....Will dry as high pressure builds in
from the north...bringing cooler airmass into NC. Have dropped
dewpoint and high temperature slightly as the area will be influenced
under a northeasterly flow. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland to
low/mid 60s along the coast (it wouldn`t surprise me if temps trend
lower) for Wednesday and temps will be lower on Thursday... with
highs reaching to the 60s inland to mid/upper 50s OBX. Overnight
lows will be in the 40s.

Thursday night through Sunday...Low pressure system develops over
the Southern Plains and tracks into the OH valley while it develops
a secondary low around DELMARVA on late Friday night as the warm
front lifts north. Rain chances will increase late Thursday night
through Friday with 60% PoPs. Cold front will push through Saturday
morning and rain should taper off from west to east during the day.
By Saturday night, the area should be rain-free as high pressure
builds into the region through Sunday. Highs will be in the upper
60s/low 70s inland to 60s along the coast on Friday, while Saturday
and Sunday high temps will reach into the low 70s inland to low 60s
over the OBX.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 115 PM Sunday...VFR conditions expected for most of the
short term, with some MVFR fog possible again tonight. Winds
this afternoon are around 10 knots out of the SSE and gusting to
around 15 knots. Widespread cumulus clouds have formed across
the region, with bases around 5k ft. Expect these clouds to
dissipate soon after sunset. Skies will be mostly clear
overnight and winds will calm down to 5 knots or less. This,
combined with ample low level moisture, leads to the possibility
of fog again overnight. Have MVFR fog conditions from 4 to 7 AM,
but confidence is still fairly low on whether the fog will
materialize. Fair weather again expected for Monday with winds
shifting to be more SW.

Long Term/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/....
As of 330 PM Sunday...Expect sub-VFR conditions late Monday
through Tuesday and again Friday as showers and thunderstorms
move through ENC. VFR conditions after the frontal passage on
Wednesday and lasting through Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...Subtle change in offshore surface high
orientation will lead to SE winds 5-15 mph tonight becoming SW
10-15 MPH Monday. Current 2-3 foot seas will gradually build to
3-4 feet late tonight and Monday.

Long term /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/....
As of 330 PM Sunday...High pressure will remain anchored off
the coast through Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches the
waters. Expect S/SW winds 10-15 knots late Monday to Tuesday
and then increases to 15-20 knots ahead of the front. Frontal
boundary is expected to cross the waters Wednesday morning as
high pressure builds back again through Thursday with N/NE winds
10-20 knots. Winds will start to veer from NE to S Friday as a
warm front lifts through the area as southerly flow increases to
15-25 knots. In general, seas will be 3-5 ft through most of
the week, except for Tuesday afternoon as seas build 4-6 ft
between Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout with the frontal passage.
Seas are expected to build again Friday above 6 ft as southerly
flow increases ahead of the next approaching cold front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...BM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/BM


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