Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 290203
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
903 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND IS PRODUCING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. RESULTING
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LEADING TO RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FLY IN THE OINTMENT
IS HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MOVING
TOWARD THE REGION. TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IS FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE, PLUS THE MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS
JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR DUE TO THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
COVERAGE AND OPACITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT WITH LIGHT
SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING BRINGING A WARMING TREND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH OR POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE MILD 60S AREA-WIDE UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY
SKIES. WITH THE HIGH ELONGATED TO OUR SOUTH...MONDAY SHOULD ALSO
BE PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. BACK DOOR FRONT DIVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS PIECE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MOVES ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT ANY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT PRODUCING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH LOWS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CROSS-OVER TEMPS SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG
TONIGHT WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM FRI...ALL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED. HIGH
PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS LEADING TO DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SEAS. MID EVENING OBS INDICATE NW WINDS 5-15 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 2-4 FT
SOUTH. AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
BECOME SWLY SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE
SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. SEAS SAT WILL GENERALLY
BE 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...A
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS QUITE POSSIBLE. WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A GOOD
SURGE OF NE WINDS BEGINS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS LIKEWISE BUILD TO SCA CRITERIA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME/SK





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