Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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982
FXUS62 KMHX 180303
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1003 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest winds will strengthen tonight as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms
are expected as the cold front crosses Eastern North Carolina
early Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will briefly build
over the area Thursday, then another front will move through
Friday. A strong frontal system will impact the area Sunday
night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 pm Tue...A mild evening with a light south to
southwest flow across the area. Light showers are moving east
southeast over the northern half of the area, which lines up
well with current PoP distribution. More showers upstream will
move in after midnight. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. No
changes needed to current zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Tue...Cold front will cross the region early
Wednesday afternoon. Kept slight chance of thunder mention as
some models show some marginal instability over the southern
coastal counties, but most of the convection should be over the
water. Most of the precip should exit off the coast by early
afternoon, and we will again warm up into the mid to upper 60s
and possibly low 70s across the southern coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday, an omega block at the mid-levels over the
southwestern United States will keep the southeast in a mild
airmass through much of the next week. Some disturbances in the
mid-level flow coupled with weak cold fronts, will lead to
enhanced rain chances Wednesday, Friday with a stronger system to
bring more widespread rain Sunday night into Monday.

Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure will briefly
build along the Atlantic Coast leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and dry conditions. Highs on Thursday will be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, ranging in the 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday night through Friday night...A strong mid-level shortwave
will move across the region coupled with an increase in deeper
Atlantic moisture, leading to another round of showers moving into
the western CWA late Thursday night and across our CWA Friday into
Friday evening.

Saturday and Saturday night...This will be another transitional
day between systems as skies will be partly sunny with increased
clouds late Saturday night. Temperatures remain above normal.

Sunday through Tuesday...A very dynamic system is expected to
evolve as the omega block over the Southwestern United States
breaks down and the mid-level low and attendant surface low moves
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. This will increase the low-
level moisture into our region as set up a chance of widespread
showers. The low-level flow becomes strongly backed to the
southeast Monday, so some potential would exist for severe weather
if any instability can develop. Way too early to make that
determination at this point. Temperatures will remain very mild
for January through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wed/...
As of 710 pm Tue...Cont mainly VFR overnight. MVFR cigs early
Tuesday morning as the front passes through with numerous
showers at area terminals. Conditions quickly will improve from
midday on in wake of front with drier air leading to diminishing
clouds. Cont low level wind shear mention later tonight as SW
low lvl jet crosses ahead of front.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday, Weak high pressure builds quickly
Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected.
Another round of showers crosses the region late Thursday night
through Friday with periods of sub-VFR conditions again
expected, before again improving Saturday, the transitional day
between systems.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 10 pm Tue...Zones in good shape. No changes planned this
evening. Winds have picked up a bit this evening, and are now
10-15 kts. Winds will increase overnight to SCA strength, and
have issued a SCA for the waters South of Oregon Inlet late
tonight/Wed morning for gusty SW winds and building seas. Gusty
SW winds 15-25 kts expected to develop ahead of the cold front
tonight, with seas responding and building to 4-7 feet early Wed
morning, south of Oregon Inlet. Confidence is low, but areas of
sea fog could develop early this evening and overnight...making
for hazardous conditions.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday, gusty W/NW winds and rough seas will
continue behind a cold front into late Wednesday night before
subsiding as weak high pressure builds across the waters Thursday
into early Friday. Strong low pressure will pass across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through Saturday with
a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal waters. Winds
will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday as the low
passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20 knots, but seas
may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD/SGK
NEAR TERM...HSA/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/RF/CTC
MARINE...HSA/SGK/CTC



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