Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181902
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
302 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through late this
week then slide offshore over the weekend. A strong cold front
will approach from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

As of 245 PM Wednesday...1030 MB high pressure over southern VA
will control our weather again tonight. With a clear sky and
near calm conditions especially inland, lows will once again be
on the chilly side. Afternoon dewpoints are slightly higher than
yesterday and support lows from the mid 40s inland to 60s along
the Outer Banks. Patchy fog is possible after midnight
especially in our coolest areas inland and near bodies of water.
A coastal trof may produce a few showers near the coast but
they should remain out over the waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...Aside from a few clouds along the coast
early in the morning (near the coastal trof mentioned above),
high pressure will give us a nice bright sunny day. Warmer air
aloft will translate into highs about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than
today, or mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 pm Wed...High pressure will be the dominant feature
through the long term with temps moderating back to above climo
by the end of the week, then a strong cold front progged to push
through the region early next week bringing a shot of cooler
weather by midweek.

Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
region with clear and dry weather and light northeast winds.
Low relative humidities will spell mild days and seasonably cool
nights. High temps will creep back above climo with readings
75-80 on Fri, cooler low 70s on the OBX after morning lows in
the mid/upper 40s coastal plain to lower 60s OBX.

Saturday through Sunday...High pressure will slowly ease offshore,
and winds will veer a bit more to the east by Sunday with
slight increase in RH vals. Low lvl thicknesses on par with MOS
guide in forecasting high temps around 80 for most areas, with
lows 50-55 interior to 60-65 coast. Column moisture remains very
low so continued dry forecast with mostly sunny skies.

Monday through Wednesday...Next significant shortwave/cold
front moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. Ahead of
the system, winds become southerly and strengthen by Monday
bringing surge of increasing deep layer moisture into the
region, with increasing clouds and shower chances. Still
differences in timing as run-to-run consistency amongst global
model suite having a tough time resolving amplitude of short
wave trough and thus timing of the associated cold front. Have
maintained the small chance pops for Monday, increasing a bit to
40-50% Mon night and Tuesday when this looks like the best
chance for showers attm. Too early to tell if thunder will be a
factor, but have included slight chc thunder mention as at least
some weak instability will be present with decent shear
parameters. Highs in the upr 70s/near 80 and lows quite mild in
the 60s with strong southerly flow. The area dries out Wed as
much cooler and drier air surge in behind the front. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 60s with lows Wed night in the lower to
mid 40s to near 50 inland and mid 50s OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 145 PM Wed...SKC through
early tonight with northeast winds 5 to 10 kts. Conditions
again look favorable for shallow radiational fog tonight.
Guidance continues to show fog potential with overnight lows
tonight in the 40s or roughly near or slightly below our
afternoon lowest dew point (cross over temp). Still expect best
bet for IFR to be at PGV after 08Z, with MVFR vsbys elsewhere
08z-12z. I did add a tempo group for IFR at PGV to account for
possible brief IFR during the period when our overnight mins
will begin to approach the crossover temp. VFR returns by 1230Z
Thursday.


Long Term /Thu night through Mon/
As of 205 pm Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term as high pressure builds into the region. However,
there will be optimal radiational conditions each morning, and
some patchy steam fog may be possible at both KPGV and KEWN with
their proximity to rivers. Sub-VFR possible in light showers
Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight through Thursday/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...While seas remain borderline at 5 to 6
feet over the coastal waters, wind gusts have really jumped up
especially over the central waters from Diamond Buoy south.
Gusts here are over 25 kts the past hour. Will continue small
craft advisory all coastal waters through midnight. Based on the
slightly higher winds, held onto 6 foot seas a bit longer and
end the SCA for all waters at 12Z Thursday. After that time
winds will gradually diminish to 10 to 15 kts out of the
northeast with seas 3 to 5 feet.


Long Term /Thu night through Mon/
As of 205 pm Wed...The gradient relaxes Thursday night through
the weekend with high pressure nearby. N to NE winds through Sat
becoming more easterly on Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt
through the period with seas 2-4 ft bringing excellent boating
conditions throughout the marine zones. Flow will be southerly
Monday and increase to 10-20 knots as the high moves off the
coast and a cold front approaches from the west. Seas will
remain 2-4 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154-
 156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EH
NEAR TERM...EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...EH/HSA
MARINE...EH/HSA


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