Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251728
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1228 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area
this evening. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will build
in behind the front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS of 1005 AM Saturday...Now that the fog and low clouds have
dissipated this morning, record breaking warm temperatures and a
threat for severe thunderstorms will be our main concerns today
ahead of a approaching strong cold front.

The SPC has expanded the slight risk for severe weather this
afternoon to right along our northern border, just clipping the
extreme northern part of our area, with the "Marginal" risk now
over all but the immediate coast. Sufficient shear with 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear values of 45kt+, SB CAPES of 500-1500 j/kg and lifted
index values of -4/-6 all support severe convection. Limiting
factors are weaker forcing along the southern portion of the
strong cold front, veering surface flow and limited low level
convergence, and the inland penetration of stabilizing marine
air with advancement of the resultant sea breeze this afternoon.
Have fine tuned PoPs based on latest high resolution model runs
and added mention of gusty winds in the "Marginal" outlook area.
Still looks like greatest risk will be north of Highway 264
beginning around 20Z.

Full insolation through mid afternoon and southerly flow will
lead to record warmth across the area this afternoon with the
mercury exceeding 80 degrees in the normally warmer inland
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS of 330 AM Saturday...

Breezy conditions this evening with gusts over 20 kts will usher
in cooler, drier weather. Mixing from the wind and lowering
dewpoints should keep tonight fog free. Lows will near 40 inland
to 40s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Near-normal temperatures Sunday, with a
gradual warm up through mid-week with increased rain chances
Monday night through early Thursday. Another cold front will
push through the region Wednesday night or early Thursday with
high pressure building in for the latter half of the week
bringing dry conditions and relatively cooler temperatures,
although they will still be above seasonable norms for early
March.

Sunday through Monday...High pressure builds into the region
through Sunday bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the
region, which then slides offshore Sunday night and Monday with
southerly return flow commencing a warming trend Monday. Low
level thickness values and sunny skies support highs near
climo in the 50s Sunday. Lows drop back down into the 30s by Mon
morning with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies
and calm winds. Could see some inland locations drop to around
freezing Monday morning. Temps will rise into the 60s on
Monday.

Monday Night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through
SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into
Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching
from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid-
week. 00z model suite in better agreement with good coverage of
showers Mon night into the first half of Tue, however models
continue to diverge Tue night into Thu with the GFS wetter and
slightly faster pushing the cold front through Wed night/early
Thu while the ECMWF has limited QPF until late Wed night and
doesn`t push the cold front trough the region until Thu morning.
Will keep slt chc of tstms Tue as models moderate instab and
shear across the region. A high shear/low CAPE environment will
be in place Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold front and
continued slt chc of tstm mention this timeframe as well.
Guidance continues to indicate further warming through the week
as heights/thicknesses rise well above climo once again and
yield high temps in the 70s most areas Tue and Wed. Could even
see some low 80s inland Wed ahead of the front. Cooler temps Thu
behind the front with highs in the low/mid 60s except upper 50s
OBX.

Thursday night and Friday...High pressure will build into the
area from the west late week bringing dry conditions and cooler
temps. Lows drop back into the 30s to lower 40s Thu night with
highs in the upper 50s/60 degrees inland to low/mid 50s OBX
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through Sunday Afternoon/...
As of 1220 PM Saturday...VFR conditions expected to hold on
through the short term. Only exception would be brief IFR
conditions with any showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, but chances for precip remain low. SW winds this
afternoon are gusting 15 to 20 knots under mostly sunny skies
and could gust as high as 25 knots. Cold front is expected to
cross the region this evening bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Winds remain gusty behind the front as they
veer to the NW and gust 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear conditions
expected for Sunday.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 AM Sat...Mainly VFR through Monday then increasing
shower chances mid week with periods of sub-VFR conditions
possible. Moisture increases across the area Mon night through
Wednesday bringing a threat of showers/isol tstms with sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1005 AM Saturday...Small craft advisories remain in
effect. We are still observing 7 to 8 foot seas from just off
Duck to Diamond to New River, all thanks to swell from a distant
low. Winds remain light out of the northwest at less than 10
kts this morning. Winds will back toward the southwest by
afternoon with gusts over 20 kts likely late. Southwest winds
veer into the northwest tonight with gusts 30-35 kts. With the
increase in wind, the elevated wave heights will be maintained.
Have added the Albemarle Sound and Alligator River to small
craft for tonight, with frequent gusts to 25 kts with the cold
air surge expected behind the cold front.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 225 AM Sat...High pressure will build over the waters
Sunday, then slide offshore Sunday night and Monday. Gusty NW
winds and elevated seas early Sunday will gradually diminish to
10-15 kt in the afternoon with seas 2-5 feet. Light winds are
expected Sunday night, becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday
afternoon. Southerly winds increase to 10-20 kt Monday night,
becoming SW Tue. SCA conditions likely to develop south of
Oregon Inlet early Tue morning. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement showing seas building to 4-6 feet early Tuesday
morning south of Oregon Inlet, subsiding slightly Tue
night...though elevated seas could linger across the central
waters into Wed. SW winds then increase to 15-25 kt Wed ahead of
an approaching cold front, with seas 3-6 ft early building to
5-9 ft Wed afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temps for Sat 2/25

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday
     for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/EH
NEAR TERM...JME/EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...JME/EH/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX


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