Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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483
FXUS62 KMHX 241351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will gradually move northeast of the area today.
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore tonight
through Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...Minor adjustments made to hourly trends.
Otherwise, forecast is on track. A beautiful day in store as high
pressure builds into the area from the west and the upper level
trough exits the east coast. This will provide west winds and
rebounding temperatures under sunny skies. Highs will range from
the lower 80s inland to mid 70s along the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...The upper low will lift out to the NE and
away from the region with heights beginning to rise and the low
level flow becoming westerly with a warming and drying
atmosphere. Surface high pressure builds in from the west then
moves to the south tonight as surface low continues moving NE.
Milder temperatures are expected tonight with lows in the upper
50s inland to the lower and mid 60s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Main changes with this issuance were to
drop POPs for Thursday and Friday, and increase POPs Friday night
through Monday. Latest guidance indicates diminished precip
chances for late week, but has trended wetter for holiday weekend
with mid level weakness moving towards area from Bahamas.

Wednesday through Friday: Surface high pressure will persist over
the the Atlantic and extend into NC during period, producing a SW
flow of warm/humid air across the area. Persistent upper ridging
will limit forcing and latest guidance in good agreement on precip
threat remaining to west and north, thus have dropped slight
chance POPs for Thu-Fri. Highs are expected in the mid to upper
80s inland to around 80 along the coast and lows in the mid 60s
inland/upper 60s coast.

Friday night through Monday: Increased POPs to 20/30% Friday night
into Sunday and 30/40% Sunday night and Monday. 00Z GFS and ECMWF
operational runs continue recent trend of subtropical low
approaching from SE Fri night and Sat, then stalling near or south
of area Sun-Mon. At very least, moisture will be increasing over
area with surface to mid level flow becoming SE-S, resulting in
scattered shower/thunderstorm threat, more cloudiness and max
temps a few degrees cooler than Wed-Fri period.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through 18Z Tuesday/...
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Some isolated MVFR radiational fog at OAJ
through about 10z. Light west winds 10 mph or less today under
sunny skies. Mainly VFR conditions continue tonight with light
westerly winds.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Ridging surface and aloft is expected to
prevail across the region Wednesday through Friday producing predominant
VFR conditions outside any brief early morning fog. Guidance
continues to trend to moisture increasing Friday night into
Saturday with possible subtropical low approaching from SE-S. This
may result in threat of sub-VFR conditions with scattered
convective activity and onshore flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 945 AM Tuesday...No changes on update. Currently west winds
10-15kts and seas 3 to 4 feet. An upper level trough will continue
to move northeast off the mid- Atlantic coast through the period
with a weak sfc low moving further out to sea. Seas are currently
2-5 feet, highest northern and central coastal waters. Expect very
nice boating conditions today with west winds 10-15 kts and seas
subsiding to 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...A Bermuda high surface pressure pattern
will develop and persist over the Atlantic through Friday,
producing improved boating conditions with mainly SW winds 5 to
15 KT and seas 2-4 FT. Recent model trends indicate possible
subtropical low approaching from SE-S Friday night-Saturday. Have
adjusted winds more to SE with seas building to 4-5 FT to reflect
this trend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JAC/JBM/HSA/LEP



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