Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 261900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure off the southeast coast will lift northeast
tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will pass through from the west
Tuesday night. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes
Wednesday will move into the mid-Atlantic states Friday and linger
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Latest sfc analysis shows 1022mb high pressure
centered over eastern MA extending into the Carolinas...with weak
low off the SE coast. High will continue to weaken and shift
eastward tonight...while weak warm front lifts through the
region...and weak low lifts NE towards the NC coast. Think most
of the area should remain dry overnight. An isolated shower
possible, but expect most of precip to hold off until early
Tuesday morning. Models showing showers and iso tstms coming in
off the waters around or shortly before sunrise Tue morning...mainly
impacting Hatteras to the Crystal coast region. Think widespread
cloud cover and light winds should limit fog development
overnight. Overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A cold front will approach from the west, while a
weak low lifts NE along the NC coast. Expect decent coverage of
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the day, best chances
along the coast early then shifting more inland in the afternoon.
Better moisture and forcing as cold front and upper trough
approach the region. High res guidance in agreement showing precip
coming in off the water early morning, mainly impacting the
Southern OBX down to the Crystal coast...and adjusted previous
pops accordingly. Will continue to cap pops at high chance with
models backing off slightly from previous runs. Low level
thickness values and cloud cover support highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the
weekend. Did not make significant changes to previous forecast.

Tue night through Thu...The low will depart to the NE Tue Night
however the front will sag into the region Wed and Thu as upr low
drops into the Ohio Valley region keeping decent chc of shra
going...again will cap at 50 percent given uncertainty on coverage
and timing. Temps close to seasonal for late Sept with highs 70s
to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70 beaches.

Fri through Sun...The upr low to the NW will slowly move E or NE
into the weekend. Does look like drier mid lvl air will grad spread
E pushing bulk of the precip offshore Fri into the weekend. Cont
prev fcst of slight pops imd cntrl and srn cst with no pop inland this
period. Highs will be mainly 75 to 80 with lows around 60 inland
to around 70 OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 1250 PM Mon...Expect pred VFR conditions through the
period...with BKN SCU 4-5kft. Guidance continues to develop fog
and stratus overnight, but think widespread cloud cover and light
winds should limit development. Though confidence is low at this
time regarding potential sub-VFR development. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of a cold front.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Decent cvrg of shra into Thu with poss some
isold trsa. The precip will lead to a few periods of sub VFR thru
Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of
shra and mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Latest obs show NE/SE winds 5-15 kt with seas
2-4 ft. High pressure to the north will continue to weaken and
slide off the coast tonight, while a weak area of low pressure
along the SE coast lifts NE. The low will lift along the NC coast
Tue as a cold front approaches from the west. E/SE winds 10-15 kt
with seas generally 2-4 feet...could see 5 ft on the outer central
waters by Tue afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Wind dir will be tricky much of the period. Winds
become more E to poss NE as low lifts NE just offshore late Tue
into Tue night. The low will depart Wed however the front is
expected to stall near of just W of region leading to variable
winds Wed becoming more SW late in week with speeds aob 15 kts.
Seas expected to be in the 2 to 4 foot range thru the period.
There is potential for a bit stronger winds and higher seas assoc
with the low Tue and will have to monitor later model runs.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RF
MARINE...CQD/RF



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