Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 181403
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1003 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM FRI...ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REDUCE FORECAST HIGHS
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW MAKING TEMP RECOVERY SLOW THIS MORNING. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL TO WEAKENING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYS IN THE GULF MEXICO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYS MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. CLOUDS FROM THE ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH. CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S INLAND AND
UPPER 50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WILL
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. ENHANCING THE SPREAD OF RAIN INTO OUR
AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS RANGING 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...DEEP TROF MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST REGION
WILL CUT OFF THEN MOVE THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AND OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS WILL SET UP A MAINLY CLOUDY AND WET PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SFC LOW TRACKS ENE TO THE
S.

WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SAT AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
MOST AREAS WITH LIKELY NRN TIER. BEST CVRG WILL BE IN MORN WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING A BIT LATE ESPCLY INLAND. CLOUDS...PRECIP AND
NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY 60 TO 65. THE
LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY AND THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION THRU SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIP ACROSS THE N AND NW TIER SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE CHC TO GOOD CHC CST TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC
OR NO CHC DEEP INLAND SUNDAY. HAVE TEMPS ON SUNDAY RANGING FROM
LOW/MID 60S CST WHERE WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TO UPR 60S INLAND.

MODEL AGREE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AT MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILDER LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM THE NW TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE PRECIP WITH THE FROPA LATE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MODEL
TRENDS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT. DRY IN WAKE OF FRONT MID WEEK WITH
TEMPS A BIT COOLER WED AS UPR TRF CROSSES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 730 AM FRI...INCREASING STRATUS CLOUDS THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL
HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN
BECOME MVFR BY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WITH CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCING DOWN. AT THIS KEEP
CONDITIONS AT A LOW END OF MVFR..BUT LIKELY BECOME IFR. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD RAIN SAT WITH REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES LIKELY IN IFR RANGE MOST OF THE DAY. LOWER CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL CONT ALONG THE CST THRU SUNDAY WITH CONT REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES...OVER THE INLAND SITES WILL SEE SOME GRAD
DRYING SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS LATE. MAINLY VFR
EXPECT MON HOWEVER WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE NEAR CST
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SW FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH VFR EXPECTED WITH LIMITED
PRECIP CHCS THRU THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 10 AM FRI...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST BUOY OBS...WINDS
NE 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 7-10 FT NORTH OF
HATTERAS AND ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS...SEAS ARE 4 TO 7
FT.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL TO WEAKEN AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYS IN THE GULF MEXICO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
TODAY. PERSIST NE FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING...BUT WILL REMAIN IN SCA
CRITERIA. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 6 TO 7 FT BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 245 AM
FRI...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THRU MONDAY. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF
THE CST TO OUR SOUTH SAT THEN SLOWLY LIFT ENE THRU MON. COMBO OF
THE LOW TO THE S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP GRDNT TIGHT
ALONG THE CST ESPCLY LATE SAT THRU SUN WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KTS EXPECTED...COULD FLIRT WITH GALES AT TIMES OUTER CNTRL WTRS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E AND THE HIGH WEAKENS WINDS WILL GRAD
SUBSIDE MON AND BECOME LIGHT MON NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH CROSSES.
WINDS WILL GRAD BECOME SW 10 TO 15 KTS TUE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE GUSTY NE WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER THE
OUTER WTRS LATER SAT THRU SUN NIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCA FINALLY ENDING ALL WTRS BY 12Z
TUE. SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...MAY HAVE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE SAT
THRU SUNDAY AS THE INCREASING AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW BUILDS LARGE
SEAS. THIS WOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER BANKS FROM HATTERAS
NORTH. THE PERSISTENT POUNDING WAVES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/BM/RF
MARINE...RF/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF






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