Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 291945
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAIN QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING? THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDONE ON PRECIPITATION IN THE
SHORT TERM AS THERE ARE NO ECHOS CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR DISPLAY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
SUGGESTING THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE VORT MAXIMUM COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AND EXCITE SOME LIFT OVER THE REGION. WITH THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WILL WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AND MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WHERE
ONSHORE FLOW/SPEED CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL SUPPORT
BETTER CHANCES. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AND NOT EXPECTING THIS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY AFFECT ON TO
NIGHTS WEATHER.

GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO ADDING FOG AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST
AND THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BRING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH BUILDS INLAND. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE A TYPICAL
SUMMER...HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MON THROUGH WED
WILL BE A BETTER DAY WITH CONVECTION AS A BROAD TROF WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30/40 POPS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE AREA...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT IT. EXPECT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM FRIDAY...PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE CLOUDS COULD
BRIEFLY SPREAD TO KEWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT JUST MOVED SOUTH
OF THERE. WOULD EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR LEVELS POST FRONT
WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FIRE IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT NEAR NEW BERN THIS AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. LATE TONIGHT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE THAT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN FOG AND
STRATUS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AN ALMOST SATURATED LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF FORECASTING PREVAILING MVFR FOR NOW
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID
MORNING SATURDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
WITH HVY RAINFALL. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. 10 TO 15 KT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT LATE TONIGHT THEN
BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

2 TO 4 FT SEAS LATE TODAY WILL BECOME 2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL S/SW 5 TO 15 KTS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/BM
MARINE...JME/BM








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