Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 161850
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NE NC AND CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE...JUST A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER SE NC WITH VERY LITTLE UPSTREAM ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT. SO BASED ON THIS AND HIGH RES MODELS EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY 65-70 DEGREES. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WED AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE/SC POPS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES...NE/E FLOW...AND 850MB TEMPS 12-14C SUPPORT
HIGHS 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...THERE WILL BE A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY AS A BROAD TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY SHARPENS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THU. LOTS OF LOW CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
WED NIGHT AND THU WHICH WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THU. LOWS WED NIGHT LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND UPR 60S
TO LOW 70S COAST.

THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
DURING THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FRIDAY
THRU SUNDAY. THE ONLY CHC ALBEIT SLGT FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COASTAL TROF. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
INTO THE LOW 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT...BUT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN TAFS. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
OCCUR OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DONE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE INDICATED
MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING TO OCCUR AFTER 07Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL REANALYZE THE POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ON THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING
WITH A NE FLOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THU EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG/AND STRATUS. MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI
THRU SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH LESS PRECIP
CHCS AND BETTER LOW LVL MIXING REDUCING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIKELY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RANGING FROM E TO W LESS THAN 10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT. LONG
PERIOD SWELL...13-16 SECONDS...FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. WAVEWATCH
AND LOCAL NWPS CONTINUE TO RUN 1-2FT HIGHER THAN HURRICANE
WAVEWATCH. ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING SCA WAS TO PUSHED BACK THE
TIMING A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE. NE SURGE
10-15KT EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CONTINUES WITH E/NE
FLOW INTO WED. WILL CONTINUE SEAS 4-6FT WED MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD
SELY SWELL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUE...WAVE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING LONG PERIOD
SWELL FROM DISTANT TC EDOUARD AT 5-7 FT THRU WED NIGHT. SWELL WILL
DIMINISH THU AND SHUD BE A PERIOD OF SUB SCA SEAS...HOWEVER NE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THU TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE AND CONT THRU FRI
WITH SEAS AGAIN BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND SPLY ACRS THE CNTRL WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...BM/JAC
MARINE...CQD/JAC






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