Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CAUSING SCT-BKN STRATUS FORMATION OVER MOST OF WI.  STRATUS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT CAUSES
STRATUS TO LIFT AND THIN.  STRONGER SFC CDFNT OVER NORTHWEST WI WL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI DURING THE AFTN.  ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT TO SET
OFF AT LEAST ISOLD -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  BEFORE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...STRATUS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WHICH SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

A QUIET NIGHT LIES AHEAD AS THE FIRST WAVE OF COOLER AIR SETTLES
INTO SRN WI.  SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY APPROACHING UPPER LOW ON MONDAY.

.MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. 850
TEMPS TUMBLE TO THE 5-7C RANGE BY 00Z. THE ECMWF HAS CAUGHT UP TO
THE QUICKER GFS AND NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE PACE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
WI. HOWEVER LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGESTS A FEW RIPPLES TO
CONTEND WITH. ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGIME ESP AFT
18Z. WILL HAVE SOME SLGT POPS IN THE WEST AND CHCY IN THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MODIFIES A BIT. 925 TEMPS IN THE TEENS
CELSIUS SO WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER 60S.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE WEDNESDAY THOUGH
SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL
CHANCE OR SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR
NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THEN
FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK ZONAL REGIME FOR END
OF THE WEEK. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM
NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN AROUND BY THE GFS. PREFER THE ECMWF
WITH OVERALL LOW LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
DRY LOOK. ANY RENEWED WAA/LLJ INDUCED PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SCT-BKN IFR STRATUS SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
MIX DRIER AIR TO THE SFC. A BRIEF -SHRA MAY AFFECT TAF SITES LATER
THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS STRONGER CDFNT SAGS THRU SRN WI.

&&

.MARINE...WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG ON THE LAKESHORE
AREAS SINCE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP FROM THE NORTHWEST. WL CANCEL MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVY WITH NEW NEAR SHORE ISSUANCE. HOWEVER PATCHY FOG COULD
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AS DEWPOINTS WILL LINGER IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS LIKELY 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN WATER. STRONGER CDFNT WL PASS ACROSS NEAR
SHORE THIS AFTN WITH DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT
RESULTING IN NORTHWEST WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR



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