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000
FXUS63 KMKX 250817
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT.  850/700 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  700 MB MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE PUSHES EAST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST AND WEAKEN AS THEY REACH THE DRIER AIR FROM
THE RECEDING SURFACE HIGH.  THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS TAKE THE
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE NAM/GFS...AND PREFER
THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR.

SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A 500MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI OR
NORTHEAST IOWA SUNDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/
NOSING INTO IL/WI AND THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTHWEST
WI...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED CAPE. EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT MAKES IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI
TO BE LIGHT. CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND.

THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THAT A
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATER
IN THE NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE LLJ NOSES INTO SOUTHEAST WI AND THE
700-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD. THERE IS SUPPORT
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET AND
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED BUT WITH A
LITTLE HIGHER ELEVATED CAPE VALUES.

BY MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 850MB WILL BE MUCH STRONGER OVER
SOUTHERN WI...WITH ONGOING 700-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH THE
WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN SOUTHERN WI THAN THE ECMWF
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. KEPT THE POPS LIMITED TO CHANCE FOR THIS
PERIOD. DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S INLAND WITH THE STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CAPE AND STRONG BULK
SHEAR. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT
ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD ROLL THROUGH LATE MON NIGHT AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY WITH A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DRAWS WARM AND MOIST
AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW LAKESHORE
AREAS TO ENJOY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS WELL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN WI BY THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LEAD TO AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVE
WEATHER.

THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. QUITE
DIFFERENTLY BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THERE ON
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING BUT STILL MAINLY VFR.  SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR.

&&

.MARINE...

PERSISTENT EAST WINDS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC