Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 232001
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM...STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING COULD POSE AN IMPACT.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS AREA CONTINUED TO
SHRINK WITH ONLY A SMALL PATCH IN SCNTRL NEBR AT 1930Z. A WEAK
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NRN NEBR TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
STRATUS WILL EXPAND OR REDEVELOP OVER THE FA LATER THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 17Z HRRR/RAP INDICATED AREA WOULD MOST LIKELY
BE NEAR MO RIVER AND INTO WRN IA ALTHOUGH FORMER MODEL HAD BEEN
STEADILY DECREASING THAT NOTION LAST FEW UPDATES. ANY LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD THEN SHIFT NE AS SWRLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
A GOES FOG PRODUCT SIMULATOR FROM CSU SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE FA
COULD GET SOCKED BACK IN WITH LOW CLOUDS IF NOT FOG TOO. ALTHOUGH
ONLY A PATCHY FOG MENTION WILL BE MADE DUE TO THE INCREASED BLYR
WINDS...DID INCREASE SKY COVER TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ST AND THEN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS MORE CI LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WARMS INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK
WAVE PASSES AND FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ANY STRATUS MIXING OUT
OR SHIFTING NE OF THE FA EARLY IN THE DAY. NO BIG CHANGE FROM PREV
FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY A BIT...MAINLY NORTH AS SHIFT TO NW WINDS COULD PROVIDE A
BIT BETTER MIXING TO COUNTER WEAK COOL ADVECTION IN AFTN.

SATURDAY STILL SHOULD BE COOLER THAN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
MILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN NRN PLAINS BEHIND WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA.

ALTHOUGH UPPER HGTS BEGIN FALLING ACROSS PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
NEXT TROUGH...MILD AIR SPREADS BACK NORTHEAST WHICH COULD
CONCEIVABLY PRODUCE MAX TEMPS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER THAN
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH SOME HINT AT STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING...KEPT
READINGS A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW THOSE EXPECTED FRIDAY...MAINLY
NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PASSAGE OF NEXT TROUGH APPEARS IT WILL BE A TOUCH SLOWER THAN IT
LOOKED LIKE YDA. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT PCPN CHANCES TO MAINLY WRN
ZONES MONDAY BUT ALSO LINGER SOME CHC ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW POPS WERE KEPT IN SLGT CHC OR
LOWER CHC RANGES. WITH THE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE...MAX TEMPS
WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY.

COOLER WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY BEHIND TROUGH/FRONT IN THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODEL SMOOTHING/BLENDING
PRODUCED UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S MOST AREAS THOSE THREE DAYS...WEAK
WARM ADVECTION WITH A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY COULD PROVIDE A BOOST IN
TEMPS AT LEAST A CATEGORY HIGHER THEN. ALSO MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
COLDER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS NEXT WEAK WAVE. BOTH OF WHICH
SHOULD WORK THEMSELVES OUT IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KLNK BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT KOMA/KLNK. AM THINKING THAT THERE IS
SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE TEMPERED
BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...BUT COULD SEE
TEMPORARY MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR AT ALL THREE SITES FROM 07-14Z.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...DEWALD



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