Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 242327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
627 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Latest water vapor imagery in addition to 12z upper air analysis
shows a weak ridge axis moving across the High Plains this
afternoon. Also of note off the 12z upper air analysis was
extremely dry layer around 850mb, which if realistic, will take
quite some time to moisten. Surface high pressure ridge axis
currently extends to the east of the region with dry southeasterly
return flow increasing across our forecast area.

Isentropic upglide will increase overnight in strong low level warm
air advection regime but moisture will be a limiting factor to
produce any significant precipitation until later on Tuesday. A
bit of drizzle/fog can`t be completely ruled out overnight as the
NAM would suggest, but do think much of the area will remain dry
until later Tuesday. A quick moving and subtle shortwave trough
will roll east across Nebraska Tuesday afternoon while a surface
low deepens over eastern Nebraska. A warm front is forecast to
extend southeast into western Missouri with near 60 degree
dewpoints in the warm sector. Forcing for vertical ascent will
increase during peak heating as the upper shortwave approaches
eastern Nebraska. Short-lived window of opportunity for a few
strong storms will exist across far southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa as marginal instability works north before sunset.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into late Tuesday
night until the upper shortwave trough axis and associated surface
low finally push east.

Behind this system, unidirectional flow and a tight surface gradient
should bump northwest winds up to the breezy category.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Upper ridging will build east toward the area by late in the work
week with temperatures returning to above normal. A week cold front
will slide through the region Friday or Saturday but should come
through dry. Return flow increases by late in the weekend with
above normal temperatures for next Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions are expected through at least mid-afternoon Tuesday at
all sites. Clouds will increase and lower from cirrus to mid-level
through tonight and into Tuesday morning. There is a very low
chance of showers near KOFK in the morning, but with the chance so
low, did not mention for now. Higher chances for showers and
perhaps thunder begin mid-afternoon, with KOMA most at risk.
Included a PROB30 mention there for now and will address other
sites with 06Z issuance, as coverage of showers and storms
is forecast to increase after 00Z. Also, MVFR ceilings may start
to sneak into KOFK by 21-00Z.




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