Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 050431
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

PCPN CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN DEPENDENT UPON INTERACTION
BETWEEN SFC BNDRY MOVEMENT/SERIES OF VORT MAX OVER THE REGION.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS  WITH
PCPN EXPANDING OUT OF KS AND INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND WED WHERE
VERY STOUT 315K UPGLIDE/LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. EXPECT HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OVER THE SRN CWA DURING
THIS TIME WHERE MAX OMEGA/PWS APPROACHING 2" INCHES WILL PHASE
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL WARM LYR. WED NIGHT...PCPN ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EXITS EASTWARD.


ON THURSDAY...AFTN INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY
ALONG DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES OF 3000J/KG PROGGED OVER CNTRL NEB.
NAM12/GFS20/ECM ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE BNDRY AS IT
APPROACHES THE WRN CWA WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY
EVENING.

RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

GFS/ECM/CMC IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CONUS
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH METEOGRAMS OVER THE CWA ARE CLEARLY SHOWING
A WARMING TREND OVER THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND MAX TEMPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. GIVEN
THIS FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO NUDGE AFTN HIGHS UP A BIT.

OTHERWISE CURRENT POP FCST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW AND PLAN ON ONLY
MAKING MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z WITH POCKETS OF CONVECTION MAINLY
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY AND CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 14Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT



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