Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 200831
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY...WITH CLEAR AND MILD
WEATHER LEADING UP TO IT.

WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED THROUGH MOST TO THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE
SPILLING IN BEHIND. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA TODAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RULE THE DAY TODAY...WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COMMENCING LATER TONIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...THEN OVER ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE ROCKIES.

THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF IT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO MID
AMERICA...WITH RIBBON OF TROPICAL MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING
NORTH AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL RH AND PRESSURE DEFICIT
PROGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN OR SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ADVECTING
ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE MAXIMUM MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO AT
LEAST AM EXPECTING A CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT AMOUNT AND
DEPTH OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY AFTERNOON.

CORE OF UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE/JET SEGMENT ROUNDING BASE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRIGGER SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

DEEP MOISTURE ATTENDANT TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SETTLE ON A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IN SWINGING
BULK OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEYOND...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY MAJORITY OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS TO FILL IN BEHIND AND REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND. SO A RETURN TO OUR MILD AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE
LOOKS LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE THE LOW TO
MID 70S FOR HIGHS WITH 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD



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