Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031838
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN US NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED AT BEST THIS CYCLE THUS HAVE
LEFT OUT OF SITES FOR NOW. BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
CKV/CSV. VFR OTHERWISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...

EARLIER UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOW DIED OFF BUT AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TODAY BUT WILL
NOT ADD JUST YET. TEMPERATURES SEEMINGLY IN LINE. WILL LET
ONGOING FORECAST RIDE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...

VFR. EARLIER PATCHY FOG AT CKV/CSV HAS DISSIPATED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT
AIRPORTS...WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY COME TO
AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN
MODELS SUGGESTED THIS MORNING...AND THUS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED A BIT LOWER AS WELL. SOME SITES ARE REPORTING FOG PROBABLY
IN PART DUE TO CALM WINDS AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CWA. PUT
IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CWA SINCE OTHER SITES HAVE
CALM WINDS AND ARE APPROACHING 100 PERCENT RH THIS MORNING.

SOME SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT...AND
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
EVEN INTO THE 70S LATER IN THE EVENING. HAVE SOME POP IN THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...BUT MORE CONFIDENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA. STILL CANT
RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER TODAY
THOUGH.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BETTER ALIGNED ON THURSDAY...SO WENT LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST OF THURSDAY. FRIDAY STILL HAS CHANCE POPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO HINTS OF ANOTHER SMALLER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY COULD HELP OUT.
THIS WILL ACT TO CARRY PRECIP CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY STILL...WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRYING TO BUILD IN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ON THE PLATEAU LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY THOUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR FLOW PATTERNS NEXT WEEK...BUT PRECIP OUTPUT
IS QUITE DIFFERENT...SO KEPT THINGS MOSTLY DRY AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  93  72  91 /  10  10  20  40
CLARKSVILLE    71  91  71  89 /  10  10  20  50
CROSSVILLE     66  87  68  86 /  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       70  94  71  92 /  10  10  10  30
LAWRENCEBURG   69  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  30
WAVERLY        71  92  72  89 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07


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