Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 212154
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
354 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Broke out a late afternoon grouping in the zone forecast product
to deal with rainfall expected to become more areal pronounced as
late afternoon hours progress. But only expecting light amounts.
Otherwise, like this time yesterday, an unsettled generally
unseasonable warm wx pattern brings with it some degrees of
certainty, and some uncertainties also. As for tonight, expect the
areal coverage of best light rainfall associated with our upper
level low which continues to move slowly SEWD will be across
mainly southern and eastern portions of the mid state region
as the nighttime hrs progress. Maybe enough of a break to
experience and end to the rainfall across western portions of the
area late tonight through the mid morning hours on Wed, with
patchy fog development. Look for that slight chance of light shwrs
to remain across the Cumberland Plateau Region as Wed progresses
also. Dry conditions are expected on Wed night. A weak disturbance
might bring a slight chance of light shwrs to eastern portions of
the highland rim and Upper Cumberland Plateau Regions on Thu
morning, but dry conditions expected thru Fri morning. Main
frontal system looks to cross the mid state from the west Fri
evening, and push quickly eastward of the mid state by sunrise
on Sat. Expect main convection potential to be Fri night, and it
is still looks like there could be some potential of strong to
severe thunderstorms for locations north of the I-40 Corridor,
especially as one approaches the TN/KY Border region, with strong
to damaging winds the main concern as best dynamics associated
with sfc and upper level lows race NEWD well to the north. Breezy
conditions may be possible as Fri afternoon and into Fri evening
progresses also. Expecting some lingering moisture behind this
frontal passage on Fri night, with rainfall ending by Sat morning
across the entire mid state. Look for dry wx over the weekend per
Rockies building sfc high pressure influences, and then the
pattern will once again become swly progressive with a WAA pattern
in place with increasing chances of shwrs, and possibly even some
iso tstms wrn half, on Tue., as another frontal system develops
to our west and is expected to eventually move eastward across our
area.

As for those temps, in generally, thru the remainder of the work
week, overnight lows and afternoon highs will be unseasonable
warm, and in some cases 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal normal
temps, highlighted by highs on Thu and Fri afternoon`s in the
mid to upper 70s, lower 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on
Sat, per the above mentioned CAA pattern per Rockies high pressure
influences, will be only in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and with
lows Sat night around freezing. That WAA pattern expected to
develop as next work week progresses will bring afternoon high
temps back into the upper 60s, mid 60s Cumberland Plateau Region
by Tue afternoon, with lows Tue night in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Look for VFR to continue through this afternoon with a few light
showers crossing the area. Cigs and vsbys will fall to MVFR this
evening as a low pressure moving across the deep south brings a
swath of moisture over the area. Scattered light showers will
continue with areas of fog/mist. CSV is expected to fall to
IFR/LIFR. Other sites may also dip to IFR overnight, but
not confident. Low level moisture will linger into Wednesday
morning, making conditions slow to improve.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  71  56  76  59 /  40  10  10  10  10
Clarksville    55  71  55  74  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
Crossville     53  65  53  71  55 /  60  40  10  20  10
Columbia       56  71  55  76  58 /  40  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   56  71  55  76  58 /  40  20  10  10  10
Waverly        55  71  55  75  58 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13


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