Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 221128
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE TRI-STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
PASSES EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING...SO HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERED POPS AND ALSO REMOVED THUNDER FROM THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES ARE MORE DISJOINTED IN THEIR PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE W PORTION OF
THE CWA...SO FOCUS CHANCE POPS THERE...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER FAR E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND ZERO ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA...SO HAVE
ISOLD THUNDER IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY ELEVATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA THERE.

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT BEST BKN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH AT MOST
OCCASIONAL PEAKS OF SUN. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
700-500 HPA TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT...THEN PUSHES TO THE S
SATURDAY. DO RESTRICT POPS THIS EVENING MAINLY TO THE NW 1/2 OF
THE CWA...AND MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA - AS
THIS IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE HAVE ANY FORECAST INSTABILITY - ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCE FALL OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. NOTE THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL
SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING SO
HAVE DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. DO EXPECT SHRA TO RETURN
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FINAL VORTICITY LOBE RIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE 700-500 HPA TROUGH
AXIS.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES...WITH ONCE AGAIN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. LOWS
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...USED
A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 875 HPA WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

EVEN WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL SEE GRADUAL CLEARING FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM SE CANADA. EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE DRY AS A
RESULT.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH
NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 875 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. THIS YIELDS VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METERS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY ON WITH LARGE RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE FLATTENING AND GIVING WAY TO UPSTREAM TROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
COURTESY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA TODAY.

CIGS RIGHT AROUND 3000 FT TODAY...SO BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR IS LIKELY. SCT-BKN CU SHOULD BEGIN TO POP THIS MRNG AS TEMPS
APPROACH 70. SOLID MVFR IS EXPECTED TNGT...WITH BKN MVFR CIGS SAT.

SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION EARLY...BECOMING AROUND 100
TRUE THRU MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHT BACKING TO AROUND 080
TRUE EXPECTED TNGT. SPEEDS GENERALLY BLW 12KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR
TODAY. VRB WIND BETWEEN 100 AND 060 TRUE THRU 15Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR
TODAY. SOME VRB WIND BETWEEN 100 AND 070 TRUE THRU 15Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR
TODAY. LIGHT AND VRB WIND POSSIBLE TIL 15Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: CIGS LIKELY TO BOUNCE FROM VFR TO MVFR THRU
AT LEAST 15Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.SAT...BECOMING VFR WITH ENE FLOW.
.SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

FOR NOW FORECASTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER A PERSISTENT E-NE FLOW OF 10-15KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS COULD POSSIBLY BUILDS SEAS TO AT LEAST 5 FT BY LATE
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS ONLY
REACHING 4 FT...SO HAVE FORECASTED ACCORDINGLY FOR NOW BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SEAS ULTIMATELY BEING 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KT OR
LESS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS AROUND LONG ISLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN
LIGHT WINDS AND RATHER TRANQUIL SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FORECASTING GENERALLY 1/3 AN INCH OR LESS WITH ANY SHRA/TSTMS
THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT






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