Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 242338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
738 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A series of weak low pressure troughs forming over land each
day will move offshore each night through Tuesday night, while
strong high pressure remains well to the southwest. The high
will eventually build in on Wednesday. A warm front will
approach on Thursday and move through at night. A cold front
approaching from the north on Friday will stall nearby into the
holiday weekend, with unsettled weather.


730 PM Update: Forecast on Track - lowered winds this evening
and a few minor T/Td changes. While HRRR suggests some
sprinkles or perhaps a shower in the Hudson Valley, the
southern extent to the PCPN in the model is overdone based on
current Radar. Have thus kept the northern zones dry.


Sunday should be another mostly sunny and pleasantly warm day,
with highs 75-80. Another weak inland trough/pseudo-cold front
should set up over land, and move offshore at night. As this
takes place, an afternoon sea breeze should give way to stronger
W winds for a while from late day into the evening. Low temps
will be just a touch cooler than those fcst for tonight, ranging
from the lower 50s inland, to lower 60s in/just outside NYC.


Looks fairly dry with comfortable humidity and slightly below normal
temperature though mid week. A warm front approaches on Thursday as
low pressure passes across southern Canada. In its wake, a cold
front sags south into NY State on Friday. The front becomes
stationary near the region into the weekend - which appears will
be "unsettled."

Region is in the right rear entrance to a strong 120+ KT polar jet
streak along with SFC trof over the Hudson valley on Monday
afternoon.  Fortunately, instability is limited to below 500 HPA -
at least based on SREF and GFS. NWP QPF is near zero and have thus
confined any PoP to extreme NW area.

Similar situation on Tuesday with perhaps a tad more instability and
pseudo cold FROPA.  Have a 20 POP for the AFTN.

Wednesday is dry and then warm advection starts in on Thursday.
Frontal boundary in the region, or just north, on Friday and have
POPs in for TSRA. Looks to remain unsettled through the holiday
weekend at this time.

Temps come back to near seasonable on Thursday and then go above
Friday into the weekend.  No heat issues foreseen though.


High pressure builds into the region thru Sunday.

VFR thru the TAF period. Winds diminish tonight with many
locations becoming light and variable. Seabreezes are expected
to develop Sunday late morning/afternoon.

.Sunday Night...VFR. Afternoon sea breezes expected.
.Monday...VFR. Coastal sea breezes expected.
.Tuesday...VFR. Isolated TSRA north and west of NYC.


Ocean seas running 5-7 ft at the offshore buoys, but with winds
below 15 kt, SCA for hazardous seas now in place.

There could be a brief lull in seas Sunday afternoon before a
tighter pressure gradient ahead of an approaching trough
possibly brings them back to 5 ft. have held off on extending
SCA that far out in time to see if the 1-2 ft anomaly between
observed and model forecast seas continues into Sunday.

For the longer term...tranquil on Monday and continuing through
Thursday morning. Ocean seas will likely build to SCA criteria
late Thursday and continue as such on Friday.


See Public Information Statement for area rainfall reports from
this morning`s heavy rain.

No hydrologic impacts expected Sunday and through at least the
end of next week.


Astronomical tides are running very high, especially during the
evening high tide cycles.

NW flow has pushed enough water away from most susceptible
locations to keep water levels tonight below flood benchmarks.
This does not look for the be the case however for the Nassau
south shore bays, where water levels should briefly touch or
barely exceed minor thresholds early this evening, from 8-10 PM.


* The KOKX Doppler Weather Radar (WSR-88D) remains unavailable
  due to required maintenance. The radar could return to
  service as early as Sunday.

* Surface Observations from KFRG (Farmingdale, NY) are not
  available. Observations from KHPN (White Plains, NY and KHVN
  (New Haven,CT) are being disseminated through backup methods.
  All is due to an FAA communication line outage. Return to
  service time is unknown.


NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-
     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ080-081.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ353.


NEAR TERM...Goodman/Tongue
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...Tongue
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