Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 251639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1239 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A cold front will continue to drift south through the Tri-State
Region today. An unsettled weather pattern continues Sunday
into the middle of next week. Cold front to our south returns to
the region Sunday night into Monday and moves offshore Monday
night. Another frontal system approaches on Tuesday and moves
across Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns
Thursday ahead of the next front on Friday.


Lower 60 degree temps across NYC/NJ and LI early this afternoon
will fall back into the lower to mid 50s under N/NE winds during
the mid to late afternoon...and likely hold in the lower to mid
50s for coastal CT...and mid 40s to 50 across far northern
portions of the region through the afternoon.

Spotty light rain shower or sprinkle activity expected along
the nearly stationary baroclinic zone across the coastal plain
into this afternoon. Mainly dry across far northern zones. This
activity should slowly sink south through the afternoon.

Meanwhile...upper jet streak induced shower activity across
central NY/New England will likely not approach northern
portions of the Tri- State until late in the day. By that is likely to weaken to scattered shower/sprinkle
activity as jet forcing moves east.


Warm/moist advection will continue above the surface in broad
westerly then southwesterly flow, while cooler conditions at the
surface behind the cold front will maintain a strong inversion
over the area. Overall a favorable set up for stratus
tonight...but low-levels may be too dry for fog/drizzle tonight.
Increasing chances for drizzle/light shower activity as the day
progresses Sunday as low-level flow veers
easterly...particularly across far W/NW hills with upslope lift.


Rain chances increase Sunday night into Monday as a short wave
passes through the area, allowing a warm front to return
northward. A second short wave quickly follows for Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the attendant surface trough/cold front moving
through Tuesday night. Temperatures Tuesday are expected to be
above normal as southerly flow strengthens following the warm
frontal passage. By Wednesday, flow returns to a west-northwest
direction with subsidence, enhanced by downslope flow and
clearing skies again leading to another potentially above normal
temperature day. The unsettled pattern continues through the end
of the week, with a degree of uncertainty for Thursday and
Friday depending on the overall evolution of a series of upper
waves emanating from the Pacific.


A cold front moving slowly south through the terminals will move
south of the area this afternoon. High pressure builds to the
north and into the region tonight.

Big changes with latest AMD, as it now appears the building high
will dominate. Bands of light rain or sprinkles passing by this
afternoon not expected to have impact on flight category, and
larger area of rain approaching from to the north also looks
like it will dry out to our north tonight. MVFR cigs are still
however expected to develop from north to south, possibly
becoming IFR at KHPN from about 22Z-02Z. Improvement to VFR
from NE-SW expected after midnight.

Winds are light/variable in NYC metro and N 5-10 kt elsewhere,
but should become a steady NE to ENE 5-10 kt throughout
tonight. Could see some G15-18KT at the coastal/NYC metro
terminals late tonight as winds increase a little.

.Sunday...VFR to start. then becoming MVFR in the afternoon.
.Sunday night...MVFR in the evening, then IFR/LIFR after
midnight, with periods of rain, drizzle and fog.
.Monday...IFR/LIFR in the morning, possibly improving to MVFR in
the afternoon NYC metro/Long Island.
.Monday night-Tuesday night...MVFR or lower conds possible.
.Wednesday...becoming VFR. NW winds G15-20KT in the afternoon.


A back door cold front is expected to move slowly across the
waters today. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet are running
4 to 6 feet due to a southerly swell. With the passage of the
cold front an east to northeast flow develops and persists at
least through the weekend as the cold front remains south of the
waters. The long fetch easterly flow will allow for ocean seas
to remain at minimal small craft levels into at least Sunday and
possibly into the beginning of the week. There may be a brief
period late this afternoon into this evening when ocean seas
will be below small craft levels.

With seas being the main hazard have converted to a small craft for
hazardous seas, Sunday west of Fire Island Inlet, and today through
Sunday east of Fire Island Inlet.

From late Monday through Monday night, sub-sca conditions are
forecast with an overall weak pressure gradient. Seas may build
again to around 5 feet Tuesday as a cold front passes through the
waters. Otherwise winds and seas should remain below SCA levels into


Measurable rain chances gradually increase late Sunday through
Monday, with around a half inch to an inch accumulation overall.
Unsettled conditions will continue through the week. With rain
expected over a broad period of time, no hydrologic concerns are
anticipated at this time.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353.


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