Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 232106
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
506 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE CENTER NEARBY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL PROBABLY STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT OVERALL DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A MAV/NAM
MOS BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS WELL WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING OVER THE AREA.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED STARTING WITH THE COOLER MAV MOS
AND KNOCKED OFF A DEGREE OR TWO. THIS CONSIDERS THAT WE WILL LIKELY
NOT HAVE AS MUCH INSOLATION AS TODAY...AND TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER DO NOT INCREASE ALL THAT MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE AND ITS MOISTURE CONTINUE TO HEAD NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT RAIN BECOMES LIKELY AT
LEAST FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE AT NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING
GOOD 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND A LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING IN DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ENHANCING THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW WITH THE NAM CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE GFS THE MOST EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A WET
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HAVE
LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED
OF THE LOW PRECIPITATION COULD LAST A LITTLE LONGER.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EAST WILL
HAVE DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A DEEPENING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RIDGE MONDAY AND A SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SEA BREEZE AT
IMMEDIATE COAST...RESULTING IN SW-SSW FLOW 5-10 KTS WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER IT REACHES KEWR AND KLGA. FEW-SCT HIGH LVL
CLOUDS THRU TONIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB FLOW OVERNIGHT...INCREASING FROM THE ENE WEDNESDAY AFTER
12Z...WITH OCNL GUSTS MIXING IN BY 15/16Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION FORECAST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERALL THROUGH
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION FORECAST INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WED...VFR. E FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.WED NIGHT-THUR...LOW PRES TRACKS UP THE COAST. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH PCPN. NE FLOW 10-15G20-25KT.
.FRI...BCMG VFR WITH N WINDS 10-15KT.
.SAT...VFR WITH LGT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

WINDS THEN PICK UP WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
EAST...SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDITIONS
WILL BE MET ON THE OCEAN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO
WITH A SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE IT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OTHER WATERS...THERE COULD BE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SOMETHING THAT WOULD OCCUR IN THE 3RD PERIOD...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING FOR NOW.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
DURING THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS MAINLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST AND EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL
BE A SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WIND
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES...IS
LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT  NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A NEW MOON WEDNESDAY...WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE  E CYCLE...MAINLY
ALONG VULNERABLE NY HARBOR...NYC/WESTERN LI BACK BAY AND WESTERN
SOUND LOCATIONS.

MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE LIKELY WITH A 2 DAY DURATION OF ROUGH
SURF SWEEPING DOWNSHORE FROM EAST TO WEST...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM/SEARS
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









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