Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 230545
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pulls away from the region to the east through
Monday. A slow moving frontal system approaches Monday night,
impacting the region Tuesday into Wednesday with strong winds
gusts and potentially heavy rain. This frontal system slowly
moves east Wednesday into Wednesday night. An upper level
disturbance passes Thursday before high pressure returns for the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Adjustments made to temperatures, dewpoints, cloud coverage and
min temperatures to better correlate to current trends. Patchy
fog is developing across parts of Eastern Long Island and
Southeast Connecticut with more fog development expected
overnight. Moistening under a subsidence inversion should allow
for patchy stratus and fog development overnight. After
radiational cooling across far outlying areas, where stratus
develops would stabilize or raise temps late tonight into early
Mon Morning. Lows generally in the 40s across far outlying
areas, 50s coast, to around 60 for NYC metro (close to normal
highs for this time of year).

Strong western Atlantic upper ridging will remain in control. At the
surface, high pressure slowly drifts east of the New England coast
with an increasingly moist s/se flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Models in good agreement with strong western Atlantic ridging slowly
shifting offshore, as vigorous PAC shortwave/jet energy digs through
the Central US Monday and all the way to the Gulf coast by Tuesday
Night/Wed. The resultant -3 to 4 STD deep eastern US longwave trough
will then tilt towards the NE US for Midweek.

Its associated frontal system will approach the region Monday night,
and then crawl across the region Tue into Wed in the longitudinally
oriented steering flow. Trend with this system has been slower based
on the upper pattern and dprog/dt.

Moisture remains relatively shallow on Monday afternoon into Monday
Night, with lighter rain shower activity, as well as stratus/drizzle
development. Moisture and forcing increases Tuesday as the frontal
system approaches, presenting the following potential hazards
Tuesday into Wednesday:

Heavy Rain: The slow movement of the front, deep lift (potentially
right rear of 150+ kt jet streak), weak instability, and
interaction with an increasingly moist and tropical airmass (+3
to 4 std) signal potential for multiple bands of heavy rain as
weak waves lift north along the front. Lower resolution
ensembles continue to range between 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain
Tue thru Wed. Higher res operational NAM/GFS and SBUWRF models
indicating potential for localized swaths of 3-4 inches, much of
which falls in a 6 hr period. This looks to be a credible
threat based on synoptic pattern, but location/timing is very
much uncertain based on front and frontal wave timing and
location. See hydrology section for associated flooding threat.

Strong Winds: The other potential hazard is for strong winds during
the Tue into Tue Night period as a 50-60 kt 950 hpa llj moves
overhead Tue afternoon into Tue NIght. NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings
indicating a 12-15 hr period of southerly winds gusts of 30 to 40
mph, with potential for any low topped convective line/s ahead of
the cold front being able to drag down localized 45-55 mph wind
gusts to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deepening negative tilting trough will move into the region
Wednesday through Wednesday night. A stalled cold front in the
region Wednesday into Wednesday night will shift slowly eastward as
a wave of low pressure travels northeastward along it late Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing the front to move across late
Wednesday night.

The trough axis moves across Thursday and well northeast of the
region Thursday night. The front moves slowly farther east of the
region Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure then moves in on
Friday and quickly goes offshore, shifting eastward heading into the
start of next weekend before another frontal system approaches for
next Sunday.

Thunderstorms chances will be slight Wednesday morning for eastern
sections of the region, highest omega and elevated instability will
be shifting from SE CT and Eastern Long Island to east of the region
later Wednesday morning. Rain showers could still be heavy at times
Wednesday morning. The rain showers will linger the whole day across
much of the region and even into the night, but that will be mainly
for Long Island and Southern CT. Winds will be trending down as the
frontal zone will be right across the region with the pressure
gradient being rather diffuse and weak.

Rain shower chances continue into Thursday behind the cold front but
coverage and probabilities will be lower than before as westerly
flow will promote more dry conditions. The factors still favoring a
chance of showers though will be the cold pool aloft and mid level
omega associated with the upper level trough axis moving across.
Drier low level conditions will keep showers light without much QPF.

Dry weather will then return Thursday night through Saturday as
upper level ridging becomes strong as it quickly moves offshore. The
surface high pressure area quickly moves offshore as well and will
not be that strong, but should keep the dry weather along with
another warming trend with SW flow increasing in the atmospheric
column. A chance of showers returns for next Sunday with the
approach of the next frontal system.

Temperatures overall will continue to average at least few degrees
above normal for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves east of the area overnight and Monday. A
slow moving cold front approaches Monday night.

VFR initially. Patchy fog and stratus is expected to develop,
especially outside NYC terminals late tonight into Monday
morning. As such, MVFR or IFR ceilings/vsbys cannot be ruled
out. Already seeing fog develop over eastern Long Island.

During the late morning and afternoon hours, generally VFR
conditions are anticipated, but patchy MVFR ceilings are
possible. An isolated shower or patchy drizzle is also a
possibility during the day Monday. Showers become more
widespread from west to east late Monday night into Tuesday
morning with MVFR/IFR cigs.

Light SE winds tonight remain SE and increase Monday. Speeds of
5 to 10 kt after 13-14Z increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the
afternoon. A late day gust or two to 20 kt is possible,
especially near the coast (NYC and LI terminals). Wind increase
and gust Monday night to around 20kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Mon night-Tue...Potential period of S/SE G30-40 KT with LLWS
SSW 45-55kt@2kft for coastal terminals. MVFR/IFR SHRA continues
with low prob/sparse TSRA Tue.
.Tue night-Wed...IFR possibly continues in SHRA Tue night, low
prob/sparse TSRA early evening, improving to MVFR and possibly
VFR by late Wed.
.Wed night-Thu...VFR, with iso-sct MVFR in SHRA.
.Fri...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on all waters expected through Monday as high
pressure over the area slowly shifts east. The pressure gradient
will begin to tighten Monday night as low pressure strengthens
over the Great Lakes.

SCA conds are expected to develop Mon night with the potential for
marginal gale force gusts Tue into Tue night on all waters. High
seas are expected to develop n the ocean. Will hold of on 4-5th
period gale watch...based on marginal potential and perhaps
more convectively correlated. Winds subside late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning int the wake of the frontal system.

SCA conditions will still be probable across all ocean and Eastern
waters Wednesday morning due to both winds and for the ocean, the
high seas as well. For Wednesday afternoon and thereafter, SCA
conditions will linger on the ocean mainly due to the high seas.
The non-ocean waters are forecast to have below SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread 1 1/2 to 3 inches of rain is likely Tuesday into
Wednesday morning, with locally 3 to 4 inches. Concern is that
much of this rain could fall in a 6 hr period in slow moving
and/or training bands of low topped convection/heavy rain, but
the predictability on location of where this occurs is low.

Despite antecedent dry conditions, these potential rainfall rates
present an areawide potential for minor urban and poor drainage,
with a localized threat for flash flooding. In addition, if the
heavier rain amounts occur over Northeastern New Jersey and the
Lower Hudson Valley, rapid rises in flashy small streams and minor
flood impacts to adjacent areas would be plausible.

Heavy rain threat diminishes Wednesday afternoon, with drying
conditions expected Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...JM/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...Tongue
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV



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