Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 240305
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over northern New England this evening lifts up into
the Canadian Maritimes overnight into Wednesday. High pressure
builds in for the rest of the week, followed by a frontal system
over the weekend. The front will usher in colder air for the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Upper low and associated surface low continue to deepen while
lifting up into the Canadian maritimes. Cold advection on the
backside of the system will usher in cooler on gusty west winds
overnight. Skies may end up being mostly cloudy by morning, if
stratocu deck continues at a steady state to the east. Some
uncertainty on how far east these BKN ceilings make it. Lows
will remain well above normal, in the lower to mid 30s, but
relatively cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary cold front passes through in the morning. High pressure
will build east from the mid section of the country while low
pressure tracks northeast across the Canadian maritimes.

Nearly seasonable weather will follow for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with continued cold advection and winds veering
to the NW. It will remain gusty during the daytime hours up to
about 25 mph, then diminish in the evening.

Highs will be slightly above normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s, with near normal lows ranging from the mid teens inland, to
the lower 20s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are beginning to come together on a soln for
the weekend frontal sys. Because of this, a blend of the 2 models
was used for temps, with a broad blend of raw model data used for
pops. This breaks down to low chcs for lgt rain Sat aftn, with rain
chcs increasing Sat ngt and likely rain on Sun. As the front comes
thru, there could be a quick changeover to snow, primarily away from
the coast, Sun ngt. The models however are still not very robust
with pcpn on the back side of the sys. For Mon, the colder air flows
in with a chc for rain and snow shwrs into Mon ngt. Dry thereafter.

Otherwise, high pres builds in this Thu and Fri. Dry wx was fcst as
a result. The superblend was used for temps except for Thu ngt due
to the position of the high. With lgt winds, the fcst there is a
blend of guidance to better capture radiational cooling, a few to
several degrees blw the superblend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A secondary cold front approaches from the northwest tonight and
then pushes southeast through the area Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period.

WNW winds around 10-15kt backs to W-WSW overnight. Should see
some gusts to 20-25kt overnight, mainly at city terminals. Winds
then veer to the WNW Wednesday morning with 20-25kt gusts
through out by mid morning. Winds veer to the NW by early
Wednesday evening, with wind gusts abating outside of city
terminals.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible.
.Thursday night-Saturday...VFR. SW winds G15-25+KT possible
Saturday.
.Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR or lower possible with showers.
LLWS possible Saturday night. W-NW winds G20-30KT possible
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
On the heels of a cold front passage, winds may briefly drop
this evening before strengthening again. SCA W-NW gusts in the
25 to 30 kt range are expected tonight into Wednesday on all
waters. Winds should gradually fall below SCA late Wednesday
into Wednesday night, with ocean seas following suit.

Winds and seas will creep up towards sca lvls on Thu as low
pres deepens over the atlc. Winds and seas blw sca lvls on Fri,
then sw flow increases over the weekend ahead of a frontal sys,
with sca cond likely Sat and Sun on the ocean, and possible
elsewhere.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through next
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$



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