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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270132
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
932 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic
shower chance for the first half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A vigorous shortwave trough will approach tonight bringing
another round of scattered showers. Showers will push east late
this evening and dissipate upon arrival due to unfavorable
timing in a stabilizing atmosphere. CONSShort (with a higher RAP
weight) was utilized heavily for construction of overnight
PoPs. While some elevated instability does remain overnight,
will keep thunder out of the forecast as it should be very
isolated.

Overnight lows will again will run 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold troughing will keep isolated showers in play through the
morning but will diminish by the afternoon with the upper
trough axis to the east. Temperatures will again be well below
normal but by Wednesday temperatures will begin to moderate as
flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging
across Western Canada. Warmth and humidity are forecast to
enhance via southerly boundary layer flow as that trough
progresses over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, and precip
chances escalate as ejected energy slides over the Lakes and
spawns convection by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned trough/associated cold front is projected across
the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions next weekend. Precip is
thus likely but temperature in the wake of the system is
expected to remain near the seasonal averages given the lack of
amplitude in the progged flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will continue with prevailing VFR through most of the night
across the region, as any showers with the overnight shortwave
passage should be fairly brief overall. Have handled with VCSH
for now. Do have a TEMPO mention for thunder at FKL/DUJ early on
with lingering convection, but overnight activity should be more
scattered and weaker overall. Towards sunrise, MVFR ceilings are
still expected north of PIT, with lesser chances of such to the
south. These ceilings will lift with mixing later in the
morning. Isolated showers will remain possible through much of
Tuesday, before a clearing trend takes hold by sunset.

.OUTLOOK...
Next chance for widespread restrictions comes with the approach
of frontal boundary at the end of the week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$