Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 061341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH 930AM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO HOURLY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKEST...CREATING MORE OF A
GRADIENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING
SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH
THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE
TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER.
SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A
BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD
COMPROMISE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3KFT...HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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