Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 060423
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1223 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
MAINLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED GREATLY OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES AS DRIER AIR
WRAPS SOUTH ON NORTHWEST QUAD OF CAROLINA CLOSED LOW. LOW WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH LATER TODAY BUT UNTIL THEN ONLY CHC POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. BY AFTERNOON BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT
SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF LOW
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES DECREASING TO CHANCE TOWARD I-79.
NO POPS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO. NOT A GREAT AMOUNT OF
TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. A BIT WARMER
FRIDAY WITH WARMING ALOFT AND LESS CLOUD COVER THAN RECENT DAYS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO THE POPS FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER
GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS
TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA TEMPS RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF FRI IN DRY NE FLOW. AN
UPR LVL LOW ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC RGN SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SHOWER CHCS ESP E OF PIT BY FRI AFTN...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS SHOULD END FRI NGT AS THE LOW EXITS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT...AND A LATE
MON/TUE WARM FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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