Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 302324
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
724 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid
week. Another disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed to
speed up exodus of shower chances across our southeast this
evening.

Previous discussion below...
Although the front will usher in slightly lower dew points, the
change in airmass is not decisive and overnight temperatures are
projected about 5 above the averages using consensus-short
guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Subsidence with that high is expected to maintain dry weather into
Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s again. Thereafter,
general model agreement is of a mid level trough and associated cold
front approaching Wednesday night and over the region Thursday.
Have generally persisted with precipitation probabilities, which
were gradually escalated on Wednesday night and into Thursday
despite some guidance indicating more rapid onset. Above average
temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in
advance of that feature, forecast for which was constructed via
tweaked superblend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage
through Friday; thus, chance pops were maintained. Despite some
upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus
suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as
a ridge builds in the west. A series of shortwaves within flow are
progged to maintain shower chances through this period. Given the
uncertainty in timing of those disturbances, will keep pops and
temperatures at or below superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Building high pressure will ensure general VFR through the period.
The exception will come in the pre-dawn hours where patchy light
fog is possible. With slightly lower dewpoints...confidence in
placement and extent of fog is rather low...so general MVFR BR has
been carried for all locations.

.OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.