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FXUS61 KPBZ 200452
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES OF PA/WV/MD MAY REMAIN IN TACT.
NAM AND GFS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. KEPT POPS
THERE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE THRESHOLD...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE LIKELY TO KEEP CONVECTION CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY KEPT RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES AND CLOSE
TO MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THIS STRETCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OFF SHORE...BUT THINK THAT DIURNAL CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE RIDGES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SLIP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...BUT THINK THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE BACKED
OFF FROM CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY. WITH UPPER
RIDGE BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GO UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN CONUS
AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WITH HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES A FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL BE THE BEST COURSE...UNTIL BETTER
SHORTWAVE TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH WARMER
AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS SUN
AND MON.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office