Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062355
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THIS EVENING...AND
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY AFFECTED DEPENDING ON DECOUPLING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOWER READINGS AS THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...THOUGH IF
LIMITED MIXING OCCURS READINGS COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A WEAK GREAT LAKES REGION SHORTWAVE. MODEL PROGS AND
UPPER AIR CHARTS UPSTREAM SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE...SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELEGATED TO JUST BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
ALONG THE NORTH.

DEEPER MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF LAKE
ERIE AND DAMMED UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR EAST.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB IS TRANSIENT AND MOVES QUICKLY
EAST OF THE AREA. THINKING THAT REALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE TOP OF THAT MOISTURE AROUND -8C...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND TIMING...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WITH FUTURE RUNS OF HIGHER-RES MODELS.

FLOW BEGINS TO GO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH GENERAL VFR OVERNIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WITH CIGS DETERIORATING TO LOW MVFR AROUND 12Z
NORTHERN PORTS SPREADING SOUTH INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRAY SNOW
SHOWER POSSIBLE NORTHERN PORTS BUT COVERAGE NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY...WITH GENERAL VFR INTO MID
WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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