Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 300139
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREFRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FROM MOVING INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT. IT NOW CONSISTS OF MAINLY A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HUG THE RIDGES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT EXPECT THESE TO FALL APART/MOVE OFF
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR
TOLEDO AND EXPECT IT TO ARRIVE NEAR PIT AROUND 12Z. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVERNIGHT
WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OCCASIONALLY.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND REDUCED THUNDER CHANCES TO SLIGHT. ANY SHOWERS COULD
YET PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN...GIVEN 10K+ WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE MAINLY JUST TWEAKED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY...

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE
LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL
VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND.

NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
IS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION
OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.


OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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