Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 111331
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
831 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TODAY BEFORE RETURNING WITH A FRIDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NMRS SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONT THIS MRNG
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER TODAY. MDL PROGGED AND
OBSERVED UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...WITH THE
UPR TROF SHIFTING E. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPD N OF I 80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVY CONTINUES. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE LT TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLRG SKIES. TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEG BELOW AVG ARE EXPD USING THE LATEST NR TERM CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FRI BRINGING INCRG SNOW
SHOWER CHCS. THIS WAVE IS EXPD TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT
LT FRI. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER UPR TROFG AND
LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FRI NGT AND SAT...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD TO REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS DRY ARCTIC AIR RESULTS
IN UNFAVORABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SNOW GROWTH RGN. BLDG HIGH
PRESSURE SUN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER.

WIND WITH SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT AND COLD TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADVISORY LVL WIND CHILLS ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD WITH
READINGS NR OR BELOW ZERO SAT NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE ECMWF QUICKLY WEAKENS THE WAVE UPON ARRIVAL.
STILL...EXPECTING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY.

MODELS NOW SHOW ANOTHER DEEPER WAVE IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY
SYSTEM. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK INTO
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY. WILL
NEED SEVERAL MORE MODEL CYCLE TO SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BETWEEN KBVI AND KFKL THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOCAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
MOST SITES...HOWEVER NO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD AFFECT ANY
SITE. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST SITES BY TONIGHT

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE GENERALLY DRY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001.
OH...NONE.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ008-
     009-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$


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