Area Forecast Discussion
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332
FXUS61 KPBZ 221840
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY. OTHER THAN A PASSING
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY UNTIL MEMORIAL
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY LINED UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. NO THUNDER IS
EXPECTED...BUT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS SHOULD RAPIDLY END AFTER SUNSET.

TAKING A LOOK AT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
MADE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR FORECAST...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASING
THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE. EVEN THE HRRR/RAP MODELS...WHICH SHOW
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN OTHER MODELS...DO NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FORECAST. CONSIDERING THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...WILL NOT
FOLLOW THE MODEL TREND OF RAISING TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL INSTEAD
KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST. NATURALLY...THIS ALSO RESULTS IN NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.

SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL INCH UP A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CALM SATURDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S. MODEL
TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER IN MOVING THE STORM TO THE EAST. THE DELAYED
TIMING SHOULD NOT ONLY KEEP ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD ALSO KEEP SUNDAY NIGHT RELATIVELY
DRY WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT INCHES EAST ON MONDAY...MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON MEMORIAL
DAY...BUT STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP.
USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT AND
SUPPORT VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
RESTRICTIONS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PITTSBURGH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...32
DEGREES IN 1963.
ZANESVILLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...32
DEGREES IN 1963.
MORGANTOWN RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY MAY 23...34
DEGREES IN 2006.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     OHZ041.
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ001-002-023-041.

&&

$$



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