Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 161312
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
812 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring warmer temperatures today, with
increasing rain chances tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds will be on the increase today ahead of a warm front
approaching from the southwest. Latest model guidance suggests
widely scattered showers may develop starting as early as mid-
afternoon, however, most locations are not likely to see rain
develop until later tonight as the warm front begins to cross the
forecast area. Temperatures will warm well into the 40s south,
and reach near 40 north by evening.

Not much of a diurnal drop in temperatures expected overnight
with increasing deep moisture in warm advection. Temperatures will
fall a bit mainly due to wet bulbing, as rain becomes widespread
across the region overnight with an approaching shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain will continue Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast over
the Great Lakes, with very mild temperatures ahead of the system.
The parent upper trough will cross the region Wednesday with
showers ending and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Eastern CONUS ridge will give dry and mild conditions Thursday.
Deterministic models differ on strong shortwave moving toward the
Ohio valley for Friday, as well as a deepening full latitude mid
level trough moving east toward the weekend. A modified model
blend was used from Friday onward to smooth POPs and temperatures
and for surrounding office coordination.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR through the
day from S-N in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm
front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as
rain overspreads the area.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low
pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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