Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 292059
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
459 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue through the weekend with a chance
for showers and storms...mainly Sunday morning. A cold front
will bring more widespread precipitation on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Warm air aloft will keep things capped the remainder of the day
and through the evening before a small shortwave crosses early
Sunday raising chances for a few showers an possibly a
thunderstorm. Model guidance shows no apparent trigger on Sunday
to help overcome warm air aloft with ridging overhead despite
temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s....so
expect the area to remain largely dry after the aforementioned
shortwave moves out of the area. These temps/dewpoints will
make Sunday feel much more like summer than spring.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday
night with continued warm and humid conditions. Ridge begins
to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western
Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers
and thunderstorms with FROPA. Much cooler temperatures will
arrive Tuesday, with shower chances especially toward I-80 as a
closed mid level low moves into eastern Canada.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A southern stream trough will begin to spread moistures north
toward the region by later Wednesday, with shower chances into
the weekend as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN
CONUS. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below the
seasonal average through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR to IFR ceilings should persist N of PIT this evening behind
an exiting shortwave/precip, with a slow improvement from S-N as
shortwave ridging builds in. Elsewhere, VFR is expected through
Sunday, though a few thunderstorms are possible Sun aftn with
building instability. Lack of an organized trigger should limit
coverage, precluding a TAF mention at this time. Winds should
slowly veer to SW by Sunday.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely with a strong cold front Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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