Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222355 AAB
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
655 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED POPS/SKY FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA
REMAINING CURRENTLY. EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS THE NW LATER TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BRIEF DRY INTERLUDE SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE RAINFALL RAMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES UPDATED PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPR TROF WL CONT TO DVLP AND ADVN ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS
THRU THE WKEND. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN SUN NGT. WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP MOISTURE...LLVL JET AND UPR SPPRT MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL RAIN
CHCS WITH IT/S PASSAGE.

THE MAIN UPR TROF IS EXPD TO SLOWLY ADVN INTO THE GT LKS TO MS VLY
RGN BY ERLY NXT WK. ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS
PROGGED FOR A MON PASSAGE. MSTR IS EXPD TO BE LTD WITH FROPA SO
MAINTAINED CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WNDS
ARE EXPD MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ARND A DEEPENING UPR GT
LKS SFC LOW.

COLD ADVCTN IS EXPD MON NGT INTO TUE UNDER THE BROAD UPR TROF.
BNDRY LYR FLOW IS PROGGED TO RMN SW SO NO LK CONNECTION IS EXPD.
ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SNW SHWRS IN THE RIDGES
BUT WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LTD ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS. AFT WELL
ABV AVG TEMPS ERLY IN THE PD...EXP READINGS BLO SEASONAL LVLS
AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
EASTERN STATES SIT UNDER A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH AREA NOW COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISO...NON-RESTRICTIVE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
NEXT STORM MOVES THROUGH. POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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