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000
FXUS65 KPUB 300223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO PULL IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STARK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE AREAS. DEW POINTS REMAIN
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR. DISTURBANCE IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS SEEN IN THE DRYING ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYING
ALOFT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE SEEN SPINNING NEAR THE CENTRAL COLORADO
AND UTAH BORDER. SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 20Z CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH CAPES OVER
2000J/KG AND WEAK CIN.

TONIGHT...AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING. AS OF 20Z...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO
DEVELOP THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AT
20Z...MOVES EASTWARD. CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS
THE LATEST HRRR MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING. THE HRRR HAS A FIRST LINE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 21Z TO 22Z PM WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAKS REGION AND
THE RATON RIDGE. THEN...A SECOND AND STRONG ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 01Z TO 03Z...WITH PARTS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS GETTING CLOBBERED BY SOME STRONG
STORMS. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS WHICH
MOVES EASTWARDS OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT WATCH LOOKS
GOOD FOR TONIGHT WITH STRONGER CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND MCS
OVERNIGHT. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL BECOME
LESS NUMEROUS LATER INT HE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING DAY FOR CONVECTION AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. AS MCS MOVES INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING WITH EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 1.5KM
ABOVE THE SURFACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE STILL WELL OVER AN INCH
ON THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR. WITH NEARLY SATURATED LOWER
LEVELS...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES
ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG ANY STORMS
CAN BECOME TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO STABLE TO GET STRONG CONVECTION
DEVELOPING...BUT A MORE PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. AM ALWAYS LEARY OF VERY MOIST SOUNDINGS WITH 1.5KM DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS..AS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY GET
PINNED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
WEST...SOME MODEST DRYING WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AFTER 06Z. MODELS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST THU WILL BE A RATHER DOWN
DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS WHERE COOL AND
STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA ONCE AGAIN...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
UNDER AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...AXIS OF DEEPER INSTABILITY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTURN IN TSRA
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AS AIR MASS IS STILL RATHER
STABLE NEAR THE KS BORDER...THOUGH NW STEERING CURRENTS MAY ALLOW
A FEW WEAKENING TSRA TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN OVER AN INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...SO THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN UNDER ANY STORMS
WILL CONTINUE. PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF FAIRLY HEALTHY AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. TEMPWISE...UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING FRI/SAT...WITH TEMPS
WARMING MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF
SEASONAL VALUES.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SUN
INTO MON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR AN INCREASED FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUN...THEN ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS LIFT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...WHICH MAY HELP PUSH MOUNTAIN TSRA ON TO THE PLAINS AS
WELL. SUSPECT CURRENT POPS FOR THE DAY 4-7 PROCEDURE MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO LOW AND WILL NEED TO BE NUDGED UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST CYCLES. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CREEP UPWARD TOWARD
EARLY AUG AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY BY TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

KCOS AND KPUB...LATEST SIMULATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF STRONG STORMS MAY
MOVE OVER KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
AFTERWARDS...SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY NOT
NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.  WINDS MAY HAVE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT
KCOS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS.

AT KALS... SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH
DAYS.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG TONIGHT DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER. --PGW--


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDRESSED IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES AND HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
EXTEND BEYOND THE BURN SCARS WITH RECENT RAINFALLS AND MOIST
SOILS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY MOIST LOWER LEVELS OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD. MAIN FACTOR AGAINST HEAVY
RAINS IS POSSIBLE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO GET STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WINDS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE SO STORMS MAY BE MOVE FASTER.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>089-
093>099.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ058>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PGW