Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230512
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1112 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Some Severe Storms Later Today Then Much Cooler Tomorrow...

Currently...

At 230 pm, boundary/cold front extended wnw-ese across the northern
part of the CWA. This boundary extended from El Paso county into ne
Prowers county, and was slowly moving southward. A lone supercell
was noted along it across ec El Paso county. Additional weaker
convection was also noted along the boundary.

Elsewhere, isolated high based convection was noted over the mtns
and valleys. and this convection was producing gusty winds at KALS.

Temperatures were once again hot along and s of the boundary on the
plains, with readings of 100F in Pueblo at 230 pm.

Rest of Today...

main concern is the possibility of severe convection along and north
of the boundary which is expected to extend across the greater east
central CO region the rest of the afternoon. Latest SPCDY1 still has
this area in slight for the rest of today. CAPE and shear will be
sufficient for rotating storms, and any storm interacting with a
boundary which has been "cooking" for most of the day will have to
be watched for enhanced low level rotation.

It is possible that additional strong convection could redevelop
late this afternoon or evening over the lower elevations of the
Pikes Peak region as shear and CAPE should increase as flow becomes
upslope behind the boundary.

Tonight...

Cold front will move south down the plains this evening. This storm
will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue during the
early part of the evening, some of which may be strong to locally
severe.

Later tonight, expect skies to be cloud over with low cigs
developing during the early morning hours. Some light precip will be
possible. Towards sunrise, a 2ndry surge of colder air will move
south and this will increase the chance of light rain, especially
along the mtns/plains interface-I25 corridor region.

Tomorrow...

An unseasonably cold air mass will be over the area. Skies will
likely be cloudy over the plains during the morning lasting possibly
into the afternoon time period. Some rain will also be likely along
the greater I-25 corridor region during the morning. High temps will
be much colder, with readings only in the 60s and L70s across the
plains.

Some thunder will be possible tomorrow, but it will be relegated to
the higher elevations of the southern Sangre De Cristo mtns.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Friday night through Monday...Models agree on keeping an upper ridge
of high pressure firmly in place over the desert sw over the
weekend, before it starts to break down on Monday. This will keep
Colorado under nw flow aloft, while at the surface the flow will be
more northeasterly as a couple of cool surges push cooler and more
moist air into eastern CO. This will provide the fuel for a good
shot of aftn and eve convection each day, with the focus areas being
the higher terrain as well as the far eastern plains along the
Kansas border. Expect max temps each aftn to climb into the mid 70s
to lower 80s for most areas.

Tuesday through Thursday...The GFS and EC models agree on the upper
ridge breaking down on Mon, allowing for more of a westerly zonal
flow across the region through midweek. Temps are forecast to climb
back up into the 80s for the high valleys, and 90s for the eastern
plains. Convection is expected to be much more isolated through the
week, with a few showers over the mts peaks each aftn as well as a
few storms possible across the far east, depending on where the
dryline ends up. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Another surge of colder air will spread in behind the cold front
overnight, increasing winds at KPUB and KCOS after 12-13z with
gusts to around 30 kts or greater. IFR CIGS and scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will spread into both KPUB and KCOS
during the morning. Most showers will shift south of the terminals
by 18Z...however MVFR CIGS are expected to persist into Friday
evening.

KALS will see east winds pouring through La Veta Pass and into the
terminal overnight and again Friday morning as another surge of
colder air drops through the plains. Overall forecast looks drier
for the San Luis valley on Friday. Winds will shift out of the
southwest around 10-15 kts by late Friday afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT


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