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000
FXUS65 KPUB 161740
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Storms Favoring the Pikes Peak Region This Afternoon...

Upper level disturbance progressing from east to west across
southern Colorado this morning, roughly over the I25 corridor at
this time.  This disturbance will continue moving slowly eastward
this morning, ending up along the eastern Colorado border by around
noon.  During the afternoon, it will move into western Kansas.  As
the disturbance tracks east today, it will provide some weak forcing
across the eastern mountains and plains.  Potential Vorticity (PV)
fields show an elongated PV anomaly moving across the region on the
backside of the upper disturbance that is moving through.  This
forcing appears to be just enough to trigger some early afternoon
convection over the Pikes Peak Region, including both Teller and El
Paso Counties.  It could even extend a little farther south down
into Fremont, Custer and Pueblo, Crowley and Otero Counties as the
afternoon progresses.  Then, as the afternoon turns into evening and
the upper disturbance pulls away from the area, it looks like
convection will tend to weaken and dissipate through the early
evening hours.  The hi res models tend to support this scenario the
best but the other models also show this scenario to one degree or
another.  So, for today, it looks like the best chance of storms
will be over and near the Pikes Peak Region.  Other areas could see
isolated storms as well but the signal is not as strong.  Aside from
the Pikes Peak Region, a lot of the mountains and valleys to the
south and west will likely see another down day in convection, with
little or no storm activity.  Surface dewpoints are widespread in
the 30s up in the high country with even some 20s way up high.
Additionally, morning precipitable water values derived by satellite
are running a little shy of average over the mountains with even
lower values off to the west advecting eastward.  So, it will be
hard to get any kind of strong convection going over the mountains
and high valleys today. The exception to this could be right along
the eastern flank of the southern front range, where there is better
low level moisture to tap.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Thursday and Friday...A couple of upper level disturbances are set
to cross the region through Friday under northwest flow. Southerly
surface winds across the east on Thu will swing around to a more
easterly upslope flow for Fri, as these shortwaves tap into
available moisture. The combination of shear and cape could provide
for a few strong storms Thu along the CO/KS border, and there is a
marginal risk for severe storms over the southeast corner of the
state. Look for high temps in the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and mid 70s to near 90 for the eastern plains.

Saturday through Tuesday...A trough of low pressure system develops
over CA late Fri night, and strengthens into the next work week.
Southwest flow aloft will draw moisture up into the western half of
the state, as well as producing warming and drying downslope winds
for the eastern plains. Convection will be tied more to the higher
terrain through Mon, with just isolated activity for the east. Long
range models indicate that convection will increase in coverage for
the entire area on Tue. Max temps are forecast to be in the 70s to
around 80F for the high valleys, and 80s to lower 90s for the
eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the Pikes
Peak region this afternoon and could affect the KCOS terminal
between 20-24z. Have included a tempo group for this as forecast
model simulations continue to indicate a high probability of
occurrence for this region. Brief moderate rainfall, with VFR
Cigs and gusty erratic outflow winds up to 30 kts will be the
primary storm threats. Elsewhere thunderstorms will be more
sparse...so KPUB will carry a VCTS during the late afternoon. KALS
will remain dry. Winds outside of thunderstorms will remain
relatively light with speeds under 15 kts. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT