538
FXUS65 KPUB 150907
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot this afternoon, with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s
  on the Plains.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the higher
  terrain this afternoon and evening, with lightning and wind
  gusts the main concerns.

- Cold front to cool temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.

- Daily afternoon and evening shower and storms are expected
  through the long term period, with perhaps decreasing
  coverage starting Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently...upper level  high pressure is sitting over southern
Nevada early this morning with energy exiting east into western
Kansas.  This has led to mid and high level cloud cover across much
of southern Colorado.  Temperatures are mild, with mid 60s to near 70
across the Plains, and 50s over the San Luis Valley.

Today...upper level high pressure will sit over Nevada through this
afternoon, while and upper trough begins to drop south out of the
Northern Rockies.  Dry air associated with the upper high will push
eastward across Colorado this afternoon, with dewpoints falling into
the 30s to lower 40s across the region, with the highest values out
near the Kansas border.  With the drier air in place, shower and
thunderstorms coverage will be less today, and mainly across the
higher terrain.  We are forecasting develop over the Mountains by
mid day, spreading south to southeast with a couple of storms
possible across the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa this afternoon.
The main concerns from thunderstorms today will be lightning, and
given the high LCL heights, strong outflow wind gusts.  Wind gusts
could approach 50 to 55 mph with stronger cells.  Temperatures this
afternoon will be hot, with upper 90s to lower 100s across the
Plains, and mid to upper 80s across the San Luis Valley.  A weak
boundary will drop south late this afternoon on the Plains, but
provide nothing more than a northerly wind shift.

Tonight...the upper trough across the Northern Rockies will track
southeast tonight, forcing the upper high into Arizona.  Showers and
thunderstorms will be ongoing early in the evening, but look to
dissipate around sunset.  At this time, not anticipating much
movement off the higher terrain, with may a storm or two in the
adjacent Plains west of I-25.  Winds and lightning will remain the
main concerns.  Once thunderstorms dissipate, dry conditions are
forecast overnight.  As the upper trough begins to dig southward, it
will send a secondary cold front south across the Plains by
Wednesday morning.  Dewpoints look to increase behind the boundary
with  upper 50s to lower 60s readings by morning, and will help set
the stage for precipitation Wednesday.  Overnight lows on the Plains
will be mild with mostly 60s, while the San Luis Valley falling
into the upper 40s. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Model output from yesterday to today has done a 180 on the timing of
the incoming cold front, which in turn makes for dramatic forecast
changes to Wednesday. The extended forecast from Thursday onward
looks very similar, however, with a daily shot of afternoon and
evening convection. Look for cooler temperatures through Thu due to
frontal passage, then elevated precipitation chances into the
weekend.

Wednesday...Hi-res models are now showing the cold front pushing
across the eastern plains very early Wed morning, with cooler
easterly upslope flow in place for much of the plains soon after
sunrise. Abundant llvl moisture gets pushed west back up against the
eastern mts, providing the fuel for widespread showers and
thunderstorms by midday across the higher terrain and I-25 Corridor,
then across the plains through the afternoon and evening. Models are
indicating around 2000-2500 j/kg of CAPE, and 30-40 kts of bulk
shear by the afternoon, and SPC has painted the eastern mts and
plains within a Marginal area for severe weather. WPC has also
included much of the area within a Marginal for excessive rainfall,
and model QPF for that time frame has a broad area in excess of 1-
1.5 inches of rain. Overall, plan on an active day and outdoor
activities will probably have a better chance earlier than later. As
for temps, an earlier frontal passage has dropped expected highs
across the plains to below normal, with 80s for highs across much of
the forecast area. This may get adjusted in following forecasts
downward.

Thursday...A Day 2 scenario setting up, with abundant llvl moisture
remaining in place producing widespread 2500 j/kg of CAPE across the
plains. The one difference is that bulk shear is more limited.
If the morning stability can be broken, then it will be another
active day. Some isolated convection across the higher terrain
through the morning will give way to likely to categorical
precip chances for much of the area, and QPF bullseyes are
leaning towards the southern mts and southern border. Thu will
be the coolest day of the forecast period, with max temps only
warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations.

Friday and Saturday...The upper pattern is still sporting a monsoon-
like look through Saturday, with an upper high over the Gulf and an
upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection potential remains
elevated and widespread, with temperatures climbing back up to
seasonal normals both days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Long range models are now hinting at the upper
high over the Gulf spreading west, and effectively crimping down the
moisture feed out of Old Mexico and up across the Desert SW. There
will still be a daily shot of convection, but it looks like it will
be tied more to the higher terrain, with just isolated activity
possible across the eastern plains. Temps will remain normal for
Sunday, but then creep up to slightly above normal for Monday.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the San Luis
Valley on this afternoon in the 23-01z time period. Gusty
outflow winds will be the main concern along with brief reductions
in CIGS and VIS.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A
cold front will arrive this afternoon, bringing a northerly
wind shift with gusts near 25 kts possible into the evening.
There is a very low probability of an isolated shower, but
confidence in occurrence is low at this time. A secondary cold
front will arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning with
continued northerly winds.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY