Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Next wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
spiral northwestward across central and eastern portions of the
area as shortwave continues to lift northward from New Mexico.
HRRR seems to have a good handle on this as echoes fill back in
along the lee of the Wets and Sangres once more. Although rainfall
rates are likely to be lighter than earlier this evening...given
the saturated conditions on the Hayden burn scar...this area will
require close monitoring through the overnight hours. HRRR still
indicates activity shifting northward out of the burn scar by 1
AM...however focus will shift into Chaffee/Lake counties...as well
as the Pikes Peak region. So burn scars in these areas as well as
Chalk Creek will need to be monitored overnight...though rainfall
rates are more likely to remain below flash flood thresholds.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Rainfall intensities on the Hayden burn scar have decreased though
radar estimates of around an inch to 1.5 inches in and upstream of
the burn scar will likely keep flash flooding going for a few
hours yet. Will have to watch the evolution of another round of
rain...now taking shape along the CO/NM border. High res models
send this wave northward which could impact the burn area again
around 05-06z. Although rainfall intensities are not expected to
be particularly heavy...susceptible areas such as burn scars will
be vulnerable to additional flooding...so this threat will
continue to be monitored into the late evening hours. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

...Monsoonal Disturbance Headed This Way...

A monsoonal disturbance is visible rotating over northwest New
Mexico at this time.  It is tracking to the northeast and will come
across southern Colorado tonight.  This disturbance has been a
prolific shower and thunderstorm spawner over southwest Colorado
this afternoon.  Radar and satellite imagery show widespread showers
and storms developing in an arc ahead of the advancing disturbance.
Showers and storms over southern Colorado are likely to increase
through the rest of the afternoon into the evening as the
disturbance moves through.

High resolution models have some activity continuing over
the plains through or a even little past midnight.  It
appears that the heaviest and most widespread activity will
be over the southwest mountains, central mountains and Pikes
Peak region.  Burn scars will need to be monitored as heavy rain
potential continues.  Other possible storm threats this evening
will include lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph and small hail.

As we saw along the crest of the northern Sangre De Cristos
last night, some snow will be possible across the higher
elevations of the mountains tonight.  The heaviest amounts
are likely over the central mountains, where 1 to 3 inches could
fall primarily above 11 thousand feet.  For the rest of the
mountains, local accumulations up to an inch or 2 are possible
primarily above 11 thousand feet.

A cold front will slip south through the plains tonight and be in
place along the mountains by morning.  This will bring cooler
weather to the region tomorrow.  Temperatures will be about 15
degrees cooler over the plains and about 5 to 10 degrees cooler
elsewhere.  With another monsoon disturbance working across
the region and upslope flow in place across the plains, storm
coverage should be pretty good tomorrow.  Primary threats will
be lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, heavy rain and small
hail.  Flash flooding will also be possible, particularly in and
near area burn scars, including both the Hayden Pass and Waldo
scars.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Relative active meteorological conditions are expected to continue
over the majority of the longer term into at lest the weekend as
adequate atmospheric moisture interacts with upper disturbances
at times.

Meteorological challenges during the longer term include pops/qpf
and storm intensities at times in combination with temperatures.
Latest longer term computer simulations...PV analysis and forecast
model soundings continue to suggest that relatively moist zonal to
southwestern upper flow will prevail into the weekend with upper
ridging then developing into southwestern Colorado by next
Tuesday.

The combination of the available atmospheric moisture and upper
disturbances will continue to allow daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms...the strongest of which will be capable of
producing locally heavy rain/hail and gusty winds at times.
As always...WFO Pueblo will monitor for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flash flood potential as well as for any
stronger thunderstorm activity during the longer term. In
addition...some higher terrain snow also not out of the question
at times and have depicted in grids.

Both the ECMWF and GFS longer range computer simulations then
indicate that drier and warmer conditions should develop over the
forecast district by early next week as upper ridging builds into
the area.

Finally...near to below seasonal temperatures are projected from
Thursday into Saturday with near to above seasonal temperatures
developing over the majority of the forecast district from Sunday
into next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1059 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Another band of rain showers will move northward...which may
bring a period of -shra to the KCOS and KPUB terminals through
07z. CIGS will remain VFR overnight for both terminals. KALS
should remain VFR with sct clouds at times. Showers may affect the
KALS terminal with VFR CIGS spreading in around 12z. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all three
terminals 19-20Z. Brief moderate rainfall and gusty erratic winds
up to 40 kts will be possible with -TSRA tomorrow afternoon. Winds
will be predominantly W to NW overnight with gusts to around 25
kts at times near showers for both KCOS and KPUB. -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
AVIATION...KT



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