Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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227
FXUS66 KSGX 020423
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
923 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY FAIR AND WARMER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS AND SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE CLOUDS...PERIODS OF SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS EVENING...MOSTLY CLOUDY INLAND AS THE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE REGION. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE COAST AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SEVERAL MILES INLAND WITH FOG DEVELOPING
WHERE CLOUDS AND TERRAIN INTERSECT.

LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP SOME LOWER CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE
MTNS MON AFTERNOON. TEMPS INCREASE AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE
REGION...TUE WILL BE FAIR AND WARM AFTER THE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON WED AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL
BRING A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING
WELL INLAND WED MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
LATE MORNING FOR MOSTLY FAIR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE GENERAL PATTERN AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE TIMING...TRAJECTORY AND
ASSOCIATED WEATHER STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE SYSTEM
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY SW TO
WEST WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR FRI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TSTMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOCAL IF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES A FAVORABLE PATH.

&&

.AVIATION...
020400Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC CIGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1500 AND
2500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 13Z. GREATEST COVERAGE
AND EARLIEST ONSET OF CIGS WILL BE WITHIN 35 MILES OF THE COAST. LOW
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE
WITH FEW-BKN THROUGH 16Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO FEW-SCT FOR
ALL AREAS AFTER 16Z...WITH PREVAILING FEW-SCT AFTER 19Z. LIGHT
WESTERLY SEA BREEZES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO THE COAST AFTER 02Z TUESDAY.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SKC AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z MONDAY. FROM 18Z MONDAY TO 03Z TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT AND MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KT EACH AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 4-8 FT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURF HEIGHTS TO FALL TO 3-6 FT
MONDAY ALONG LOCAL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. BEACHES WITH
A MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ASPECT WILL SEE SURF OF 2-4 FT ON MONDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SWELL WILL REMAIN MIXED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH A MODERATE PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL BRINING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA



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