Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 140513
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
912 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

SOME COASTAL FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER ON SUNDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY AGAIN BELOW SOME
PASSES AND CANYONS INTO MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAYS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. FOR THURSDAY...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE STATE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...

...POSSIBLE ADVISORY STRENGTH SANTA ANA WINDS BELOW THE CAJON PASS
AND THE SANTA ANA CANYONS SUN NIGHT/MON...

...MORE RECORD HEAT ON TAP FOR MON/TUE...

...CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED AT MOST COASTAL SITES AND A FEW
INLAND SITES AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A
VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ONCE AGAIN WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOTHER
INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR ALONG THE COAST AND 10 TO 20 MILES INLAND
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH RES MODELS AGAIN ARE SUGGESTING
LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL KICK THE MOISTURE BACK OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE
SUNDAY.

DENSE FOG MAY LINGER AT THE BEACHES THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...A RENEWED SURGE OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN OVER OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY...BECOMING QUITE UNSEASONABLY
WARM ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WILL LIKELY EXCEED RECORD LEVELS AT AT LEAST A
FEW SITES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS.

WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONG OFFSHORE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND IMMEDIATELY BELOW THE PASSES ALONG THE
COASTAL AND VALLEY SLOPES.

GRADUAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL
COOLDOWN. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
SOME MODEL INDICATIONS OF MODERATE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THIS
TROUGH...OTHER TRENDS ARE SHIFTING THE BEST FORCING WELL TO THE
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MEDIUM...AT BEST...FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...

140500Z...COAST...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 5-10 MI OF
THE COAST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH TIMING OF THE FOG AT COASTAL AIRPORTS
IS MODERATELY LOW CONFIDENCE. MOST LIKELY...THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
WILL HAVE CIGS BELOW 400 FT MSL AND VIS BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES 06Z-14Z
WITH POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT CLEARING DURING THE VERY LOW STRATUS/FOG.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN MOST AREAS WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS BY 16-17Z
SUNDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT.

VALLEYS/MTNS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30
KT VCNTY KONT...KSBD AND IN THESAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND SPEED SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

900 PM...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED. THE WNW SWELL OF 8 FEET/15-
16 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

900 PM...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY SHOW
WAVE HEIGHTS/PERIODS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAVE DECREASED TO 8
FT/16 SECONDS...WHILE NEARSHORE BUOYS CONTINUE TO SHOW 6-7 FT/15
SECONDS. THIS SWELL WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT STRONG RIP CURRENTS
AND HIGH SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHEST SURF NORTH OF NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. THE SWELL AND
SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING...WILL BEGIN TO TURN OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...THEN STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORCING VERY DRY
AIR BACK OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BELOW THE CAJON PASS...AND THROUGH AND
BELOW THE SANTA ANA MTS...BUT AREAS BELOW THE SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
IN THE WIND-PRONE COASTAL FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MTS WILL
SEE  STRONG GUSTS AS WELL...AND VERY LOW MINIMUM RH MON
THROUGH TUE. MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL OR NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JUST BELOW THE
CAJON PASS...THROUGH INLAND ORANGE COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL
FOOTHILLS LATE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 45
TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BELOW THE CAJON PASS AND NEAR THE SANTA ANA MTS. LOWEST
INLAND HUMIDITY OF 10-15 PERCENT IS EXPECTED BOTH MON/TUE...THEN
INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL
FUEL CONDITIONS...AND THE LIMITED NUMBER OF HOURS FORECAST AT
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JMB/JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL


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