Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 271017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
417 AM MDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Building high pressure will bring dry conditions with
a warming trend into the middle portion of the week. A storm system
moving up from the south is expected to bring moisture back to the
area midweek, and this moisture will linger over the area into the


.SHORT TERM (Through 12z Friday)...Mid level ridging extending
from the northern Great Basin eastward across northern Utah and
northwest Colorado will maintain a dry and mild airmass across the
forecast area through today. This ridge is forecast to shift east
on Wednesday, allowing an upper low currently centered over Baja
to lift northward. Moisture associated with this low will spread
into southern Utah late tonight through Wednesday, then eventually
across northern Utah late Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest
model runs have slowed the timing of this moisture advection, and
as such trimmed POPs across northern Utah Wednesday
afternoon/evening while bumping them a bit in the south. Forecast
soundings suggest instability will be limited through this time
across the forecast area owing to marginal mid level lapse rates.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Friday)...Primary focus in the long term keys
in on the evolution and track of the next pacific trough that
will be amplifying the long wave pattern across the western conus
through the period. Relatively good agreement exists in globals
and associated ensemble member output regarding said trough
digging south along the pacific coast Fri-Sat aiding an increasing
southwesterly flow aloft across the eastern Great Basin during
that time. Remnant mid level moisture in place post passage of the
shearing low from the south does look to maintain a threat of
isolated to widely scattered precip potential across namely the
the mountains and points east during that time, but BUFR profiles
lack profiles to suggest more than light to modest precip.

Thereafter heading into the weekend, consistency in trough
evolution both model to model and run to run wanes, specifically
regarding short wave location and timing of each ejecting from the
trough inland. Have continued to advertise a fairly significant
cooling trend early next week, with the threat of precip greatest
across the north...but as a whole net confidence in details
remains low.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns remain minimal at the KSLC
terminal through the valid TAF period. Light southeasterly
drainage winds currently in place are expected to switch to a
typical northwest between 18-19z per norm. VFR conditions will
continue to be maintained under clear skies.


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will remain centered across
the region today resulting in a continued warming trend along
with dry conditions and terrain driven winds. This high will move
east Wednesday allowing a limited amount of moisture to return
northward Wednesday through Thursday bringing a threat for showers
and thunderstorms.





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