Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 270746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SUPPORT COOL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SOUTHWEST FL.

TONIGHT ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE STATE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING
THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN ITS WAKE WITH COOL DRY WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL UNDER COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID 40S
CENTRAL INTERIOR...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE WEAK RIDGING OVER TEXAS IS MARKED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PIVOT SOUTH AND SETTLE IN OVER FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING IN
PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND DRAG A WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW IN TEXAS THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND WILL PULL THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TREK NORTHEAST AND PASSES
NORTH OF FLORIDA...IT WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER...IT WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TRENDS FROM C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOW WINDS ARE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE
THE SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS THOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE A WHILE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE SO WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THROUGH 12Z...AND THROUGH 15Z FOR THE OFFSHORE. THEREAFTER
EXPECT WIND AND SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE CAUTIONARY RANGE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WIND AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
INCREASE BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS...FIRST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THEN SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO AROUND 7 FEET. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED
TRENDS THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO RE-ISSUE THESE SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES DURING THE AFTERNOON COASTAL WATERS PACKAGE. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SHOULD CONTINUE AT AREA BEACHES
SO WILL EXTEND THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT AREA BEACHES SLOWLY SUBSIDING SHOULD BE ABLE
TO ALLOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z.

LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL RETURN TO THE GULF WATERS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WATERS ON FRIDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOL DRY AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE DRY AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT 3 TO 4 HOUR DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THOUGH LOW ERC VALUES
AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
WINDS VEER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  47  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  69  50  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  66  44  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  67  49  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  64  39  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  51  61  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





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