Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241123
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
623 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
The main aviation concern will be low ceilings and VSBY
restirctions early this morning with low stratus and
drizzle from SRQ northward. Will keep TEMPO IFR condtions
for the northern sites through 14Z, then becoming MVFR
through 17Z, then VFR expected region wide for the remainder
of the period. Winds will remain out of the north-northeast
at less than 10 knots. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 258 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Models forecast upper level trough west of area to slowly
fill through the period. Deep layer dry air will over
spread the area with clouds breaking this afternoon. Expect
cool temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler
tonight, ranging from 48 in Williston to 60 in Fort Myers.
Saturday will be mostly sunny with light winds and highs a
few degrees warmer in the 70s.

MID-LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Longwave trough down the eastern seaboard to move into the W
Atlantic Sunday leaving short wave troughiness over the Deep South
and Gulf region through early next week then next upper low/trough
moves out of the Desert SW east-northeastward mid week.

Stronger reinforcing surface Canadian high pressure builds into the
region Sunday bringing dry and cooler airmass to the area into
Monday with temps near seasonal averages through Monday which should
feel fairly pleasant. The high pressure center moves along the Mid
Atlantic states Tues then into the W Atlantic Wed/Thu. Low level
flow to veer easterly with surface humidities moderating and temps
increasing back to above normal.

AVIATION...
Weak cold from from KPGD to the Space Coast with IFR CIGS behind it.
Front will slowly move south today. Radar showed showers moving into
southwest Florida and patchy drizzle in KTPA area. Visibility
forecast to be tricky through 15Z, then conditions improve to VFR
around 17-19Z. Clear skies and patchy fog expected later Friday
night.

MARINE...
A cold front will moving slowly south through Punta Gorda
this morning. Will issue a Small Craft Exercise Caution for
coastal waters offshore of Tampa Bay and northward for this
morning. Buoy 42036 110 miles WNW Tampa reported north
winds 16g19kts with seas at 5 ft. Winds will slack off as
the center of high pressure moves closer to the area. A
second cold front will move through Saturday night but it
will be weak and dry. Winds and seas below advisory criteria
through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
High humidity levels will preclude any fire weather concerns
through the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  59  74  59 /  30   0   0  10
FMY  76  60  77  59 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  70  55  75  55 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  71  58  73  58 /  20   0   0  10
BKV  70  51  74  52 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  71  59  73  60 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin



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