Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 290739
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
339 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today-Saturday)...
A strong U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula will begin to slide
east of the region with the ridge axis remaining across the
forecast area. Heights will lower a bit which will cause a slight
decrease in large scale subsidence over the forecast area which
will be sufficient for an increase in convection the next couple
of days. W/V imagery indicates higher PW airmass over the bahamas
poised to advect west/northwest across the Florida peninsula today
and Saturday which will also promote greater areal coverage of
afternoon thunderstorm activity. Surface ridge axis will persist
across the central Florida peninsula today and Saturday with light
boundary layer flow. The west coast sea breeze is expected to push
further inland this afternoon with thunderstorms developing over
the coastal counties during the early/mid afternoon pushing inland
to the interior during the late afternoon/early evening.
Temperatures will continue to run above climatic normals and
combination of strong insolation, boundary collisions, and
residual dry air aloft will allow for a few pulse strong
thunderstorms this afternoon.
A TUTT cell is expected to approach the southeast Bahamas on
Saturday and may act to inhibit convection a bit across the forecast
area due to being on the northwest subsident side of the TUTT.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Thursday)...
An upper low will move over the area and linger across the region
through Tuesday, with weak upper ridging returning through the end
of the period. High pressure will be in place at the surface
through the period. This will keep south to southeast winds across
the area with an afternoon sea breeze turning winds onshore each
day. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze and
outflow boundary collisions. Temperatures will be a bit above
normal through Tuesday, then near normal Wednesday through
VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop over the coastal counties during the early/mid afternoon
hours and may impact PIE/TPA/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW primarily from 16-
20Z...moving over the interior and may impact LAL primarily from 19-
23Z. thunderstorms will create lcl MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys.
Surface ridge axis will remain across the waters through the weekend
into early next week. Relatively light winds each day remaining less
than 15 knots with seas less than 4 feet through the period. Main
hazard will be mainly nocturnal and early morning scattered
thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds a rough seas.
High dew points across west central and southwest Florida will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels each day.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 92 80 91 78 / 40 10 40 20
FMY 91 78 92 77 / 50 20 40 20
GIF 96 77 95 76 / 50 30 40 20
SRQ 91 79 90 77 / 40 10 40 20
BKV 92 76 92 74 / 40 10 40 20
SPG 91 80 91 80 / 40 10 40 20
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard