Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 261829
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
229 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Thursday)...
Dry stable conditions under deep layered ridging will maintain
pleasant dry weather across the entire forecast area tonight
through Thursday. Shallow Atlantic moisture advecting into the
region on a breezy northeast to east wind flow will support some
intervals of cu/strato-cu clouds, while some upper level moisture
(cirrus clouds) streaming in from the Caribbean will result in
partly cloudy skies through the period, otherwise no measurable
rainfall is expected. Temperatures tonight and Thursday will
remain a few degrees above normal with lows tonight falling into
the lower 60s across the Nature Coast, and mid to upper 60s
central and south, with highs on Thursday climbing into the lower
to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)...
A strong surface ridge is positioned along the eastern seaboard
producing an easterly low level wind flow across the state with no
significant chance for showers over the forecast area. The
models are in agreement a short wave moving towards the eastern
seaboard down the backside of a strong upper ridge situated over
New Mexico. The short wave brings a cold front toward Florida
Friday as the shortwave fills and lifts out as the easterly
surface flow continues. By Sunday the surface high is elongated
east-west across the southeastern state keeping an easterly flow
across Florida as another shortwave pushes eastward across the
middle U.S. By Tuesday the upper ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico
and the surface high is realigned along the eastern seaboard which
is maintaining the dry easterly wind flow.
VFR will prevail at all terminal sites during the next 24 hours.
Northeast to east winds in the 12 to 15 knot range with gusts up
to 25 knots this afternoon will diminish to 6 to 8 knots after
02Z tonight then increase to 10 to 15 knots again after 15Z on
Surface high pressure along the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon
will move offshore into the Atlantic tonight through Friday as an
area of low pressure moves from the mid Mississippi valley
northeast toward the northeastern states. A 4-5mb pressure
gradient between the high and lower pressure over the western
Caribbean will keep northeast to east winds and seas elevated in
the cautionary range across the northern Gulf waters, and in the
small craft range for the central and southern waters through the
end of the week. During the upcoming weekend and into early next
week wind and seas will diminish and subside as the gradient
relaxes as the high settles in over the region.
Elevated 20 foot winds and transport winds combined with mixing
heights in the 3-4KFT range will support high dispersion indices
across the forecast area the next couple of days, otherwise no
other fire weather issues are expected at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 68 83 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 68 84 69 85 / 0 10 10 0
GIF 65 84 66 85 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 68 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 64 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 69 83 70 84 / 0 0 0 0
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal
waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL
out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/Paxton