Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 230059
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER LEE COUNTY WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CAME IN AT 0.81 INCHES PWAT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO A HALF
INCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WHICH WILL FURTHER
THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD CUBA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM THE YUCATAN TO EASTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  86  70  83 /  30   0  20  40
GIF  63  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  83  53  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  69  82  68  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





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