Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES...STILL IN PLACE. A TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. ON
TUESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT TO INDICATE ISOLATED POPS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AND
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THESE COULD EFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  50  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





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