Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 290515
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
115 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
.Aviation (29/06Z through 30/06Z)...
VFR conditions prevail for the TAF period at most locations. A brief
period of MVFR visibility is possible toward dawn at mainly
KLAL/KPGD, but not significant restrictions are expected and any
lowered VIS will end quickly after sunrise. Light and variable
morning flow turns SW/W during the afternoon hours and increases to
around 10 knots as the sea-breeze evolves slowly inland from the
coast toward the I-75 corridor. Winds decrease with sunset this
evening and become variable again before the end of the TAF
.Prev Discussion... /issued 828 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
SHORT TERM (Rest of tonight)...
An upper low over the southern high plains lifts up into the central
plains by Wed afternoon as a ridge from the eastern half of the Gulf
of Mexico to the Upper Midwest shifts east...from Fl to the upper
Great Lakes. Through Wed afternoon - A surface low tracks from
eastern NM to southern OK...with a cold front moving east across
TX...and a nearly stalled frontal boundary stretching to the
southeast U.S. coastal waters. Closer to home high pressure ridges
across Fl from the Gulf to the Atlantic.
The ridging aloft and surface will dominate with a stable and
generally dry airmass. The evening RAOB from TBW came with a
PWAT of 1.05 inches with most of that in lower layers. There
are a few clouds this evening but these will melt away and
leave clear skies. However...there will be enough low level
moisture for patchy late night fog. The ridging continues
into Wed with a dry forecast and few to scattered clouds.
Afternoon onshore flow will give way to light and variable
winds for the overnight hours. Lows tonight around normal
with highs Wed above. Current forecasts on track.
Onshore flow with the afternoon sea breeze is collapsing with winds
shifting back to easterly toward morning then shifting back to
onshore Wed afternoon. Speeds will be 10 knots or less.
A cold front approaches Thu night into Fri with an increase in
southerly winds to cautionary, possibly advisory levels, and a
potential round of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Winds shift to west and northwest and diminish behind the
boundary Fri night and Sat.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 82 67 83 68 / 0 0 10 10
FMY 86 64 85 65 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 88 65 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 81 63 80 66 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 86 58 86 61 / 0 0 10 10
SPG 82 69 82 68 / 0 0 0 10