Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 030035
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING VIA 88D RETURNS. COLDER AIR ALOFT AGAIN HELPED
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES WHICH IN TURN CREATED STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH A SEVERE STORM NOTED
OVER LEE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS
OBSERVED NEAR BONITA BEACH. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES MAY POSSIBLY
SEE A FEW MORE STORMS FIRE OFF ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOWS...OTHERWISE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WEAKEN AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. WILL WAIT UNTIL MOST OF THE CONVECTION ENDS THEN WILL
UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE EVENING RAIN CHANCES...OTHERWISE NO
OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THEN
SOME  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS SHRA/TSRA RE-
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND HAVE DEPICTED VCTS AT ALL SITES AFTER
16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8
T0 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SURFACE RIDGE POSITION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS
FROM THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO BONITA BEACH...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN ENHANCED ONSHORE SEA BREEZE
COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO REAL CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY



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