Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 312135
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
535 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)...
Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue across the
area with the main streaming focus remaining over the greater
Tampa Bay area. The flood watch will remain in effect through
Friday as these areas of rain will continue to stream across the
area through tomorrow. TS Hermine is expected to move to the north
and then northeast through Thursday, with conditions deteriorating
especially across the Nature Coast, through the period. Winds will
shift from the S/SE to the S/SW through the period and become
breezy, with tropical storm conditions possible across the Nature
Coast. Winds will also contain strong gusts within the rain bands.
The threat for isolated tornadoes will continue through the period
as well with the storms. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to
around 80 for lows, and in the lower 80s north to mid-upper 80s
south for highs Thursday. In addition to the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch in place across the Nature Coast, and
the Flood Watch for Sarasota county north, there is also a High
Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk in place.

.Long Term (Thursday Night-Wednesday)...
What is currently Tropical Storm Hermine will be located across the
far northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night, moving toward an
early Friday morning landfall somewhere near the Florida panhandle.
Local impacts for Thursday night into the first part of Friday will
include heavy rainfall and flooding as well as some gusty winds and
some coastal impacts including a higher risk for rip currents. We
are also looking at an increased risk for tornadoes mainly across
the northern portion of the forecast area and the Storm Prediction
Center keeps that area within a slight risk.

During the rest of Friday and through the weekend, this system will
move off to our northeast up the eastern seaboard. Even as Hermine
makes its way more to our northeast, there will still be plenty of
moisture in place trailing the system, and will keep fairly high
rain chances in the forecast through the most of the weekend.
Additional high rainfall amounts will be possible with some
localized flooding over already-saturated areas.

For the start of the next work week, surface high pressure will
build back over the mid-Atlantic coast, with some relatively drier
air moving into the region and rain chances returning back to
normal. We will generally see an easterly wind flow for this time
period with scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms each day and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
Periods of rain continue for mainly the northern terminals with
scattered showers across the southern zones. Generally MVFR
conditions will be in place with clearing periods seeing VFR
conditions and IFR conditions during heavier rain bands.

&&

.MARINE...
TS Hermine will continue to bring heavy rain and increasing winds
across the coastal waters. The SCA will remain in place across the
central and southern waters, with the Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch continuing across the northern waters through mid-
day Friday. Conditions will be improving later Friday and through
the weekend as the storm is expected to be lifting out to the NE and
high pressure building in across south FL from the Atlantic
through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  85  78  84 /  70  70  70  70
FMY  77  88  79  89 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  75  86  77  85 /  50  70  50  50
SRQ  78  87  81  86 /  70  70  70  60
BKV  75  84  77  83 /  70  70  70  70
SPG  77  85  79  85 /  80  80  80  70

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Friday evening for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Sumter.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle



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