Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240116
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE CONUS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
BACK CLOSER TO HOME...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR STREAMING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA. THIS
DRY AIR ALOFT IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE ABOVE
600MB.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH
OF I-10 WILL DECAY OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE FL PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LATE AT
NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY/AREAS OF GROUND FOG.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE
AREAS...AND THIS LOWERED VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL
BE THE ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE WATER. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THAT
WILL BOTH PROPAGATE INLAND AND COLLIDE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVES INLAND...BUT IT WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT AREA BEACHES IN
ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...A FEW SEA-BREEZE COLLISION SHOWERS
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN TODAY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE MORE DEFINED. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE LACKING..SO ANY
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW TOPPED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. MANY OF THE
LOCAL AND NATIONAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF
SCT LATE DAY SHOWERS WELL INLAND AND THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS WILL
SHOW THIS CHANCE.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE RESULTING DECREASE IN SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE AS CLOUDS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
EVENING. KEPT MENTION OF BR IN FORECAST AT LAL AND PGD STARTING
AROUND 09Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TOMORROW AFTN AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY MODERATE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  83  68  84 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  65  87  66  88 /   0  10   0  10
GIF  66  86  66  86 /   0  30  20  10
SRQ  63  79  65  81 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  57  85  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  68  82  69  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN





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