Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 070753
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
253 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today - Thursday)...
A rather messy air mass remains over the forecast area after a
cold front partially crossed the Florida Peninsula Tuesday. The
front has stalled out over southern Florida, but the low level
environment left behind remains very moist. This has allowed dense
fog to develop across the area early this morning, and a dense fog
advisory has been issued for Pasco/Polk counties southward. Areas
not under the advisory are still seeing patches of fog, and may
need to be added in before the fog lifts out shortly after sunrise.

Despite this abundant low level moisture, the profile aloft is
now rather dry, particularly north of Interstate 4. Rain chances
today will be very low, with the possible exception of extreme
southern portions of the forecast area late this afternoon where
the highest deep moisture remains. Temperatures this afternoon
will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but will still be 2-4
degrees above normal. However, weak cold air advection will
continue today and tonight, with dew points also dropping a few
degrees by tonight. Patchy fog will still be a concern tonight and
Thursday morning, but the risk will perhaps be less than it is
this morning.

High pressure will build in northwest of Florida on Thursday,
setting up north winds over the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures
will drop a couple more degrees and should top out near normal
Thursday afternoon. Atmospheric moisture will still be fairly
elevated over the southern half of the area, allowing for 20-30
percent rain chances Thursday afternoon, generally south of the
Interstate 4 corridor.

.MID/LONG TERM (Thursday Night-Tuesday)...
Models continue in good agreement with progressive troughy
pattern over the eastern U.S. as series of shortwaves drops
through the region into the weekend. Large dome of high pressure
to bring arctic airmass to the Deep South with cold below normal
temps areawide Friday and Saturday. Coldest conditions over the
Nature Coast and at this point, don`t expect widespread freezing
temps. But overnight winds will make for very cold wind chill or
feels like conditions areawide.

On Sunday, the high pressure area moves into the Western Atlantic
with moderating temps and dewpoints back to near normal levels.

Warmer above normal conditions early next week as the next frontal
system moves into the region with generally 10-30% chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog and low stratus have settled in across much of the region as
ample low level moisture remains in place behind the frontal
passage. Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to
continue past sunrise, with periods of LIFR expected as well.
Although every site in the area has the potential for prolonged
visibility and ceiling restrictions this morning, areas over
Southwest Florida have the deepest moisture and look to be the
most susceptible. Conditions should improve after around 13-14z,
but some MVFR clouds could linger through much of the morning. Fog
and low stratus will be possible again Thursday morning, although
the setup is not forecast to be as extreme at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will hold around 10 knots or less through Thursday afternoon
as weak high pressure ridges in across the waters from the
northwest. Winds will begin to increase late Thursday as a strong
cold front approaches the area. Periods of advisory or cautionary
level winds are expected from Thursday night through Friday night,
with conditions moderating through the weekend as high pressure
sets up to the north of the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity will stay above critical levels today and Thursday. The
main fire weather concern will be widespread fog continuing
through mid morning today. Patchy fog will be possible again
tonight/Thursday morning.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  60  73  52 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  80  65  78  59 /  20  10  30  40
GIF  77  57  75  52 /  10  10  10  20
SRQ  74  61  73  56 /  10  10  20  40
BKV  73  54  72  48 /   0   0  10  20
SPG  73  60  73  55 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Polk.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis



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