Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 021432
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY WILL BE FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS COVERING
ALL LAND ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA AND PATCHES FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH METAR OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THAT FOG OVER
LAND IS LIFTING OUT IN FAVOR OF LOW STRATUS...THIS STRATUS SHOULD
ALSO BURN OFF BY MIDDAY. ALONG THE BEACHES...WEB CAMS AND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WHILE SOME FOG IS BLOWING OFF THE LAND
INTO THE TAMPA BAY...MOST OF WHAT IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE OVER
THE GULF IS LIKELY LOW STRATUS AND NOT YET SEA FOG. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SEA
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS VERY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR
TODAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OFFSHORE...SO ANY
SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
AND RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. LAND BASED FOG AND SOME LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG FROM THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT...WITH
LIFR/IFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...ALL TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.
FOG AND LOW STATUS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE INTERRUPTED EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST BY
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL TURN THE WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE.
SEA FOG WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH
PATCHY SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY...IF SIGNIFICANT SEA
FOG AREAS ARE GOING TO DEVELOP...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  65  78  64 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  84  65  83  64 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  82  64  82  64 /  10  10  10   0
SRQ  81  64  78  63 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  82  61  82  58 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  78  65  76  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




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