Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281107

National Weather Service Topeka KS
607 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Return flow has developed in the wake of the retreating surface high
pressure in the Ohio river valley. Low level moisture that resided
in far southeast KS yesterday is currently advecting northward
through east central KS within the return flow. This moisture is in
the form of very low stratus and fog, which is dense in some
pockets. Based on observational trends the leading edge of the
moisture might be predominately fog, which may transition to less
fog and lower ceilings as the advection continues. It also appears
that the light wind speeds may inhibit prolonged dense fog at any
particular location. The model guidance has been fairly consistent
in handling the fog and stratus, which is forecasted to stay mainly
along and east of a line from Emporia to Hiawatha. The moisture will
quickly mix out later this morning around 10am give or take a few
hours. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest today.
Temperatures are forecasted to quickly rise today ahead of the front
with highs ranging from 80 to 85. The record highs for Topeka and
Concordia are both 85 therefore record heat is definitely a
possibility. Southwest winds will increase during peak heating with
gusts up to 30 mph. Windy warm conditions will cause high fire
danger this afternoon mainly in north central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Next front is on approach into Saturday from the north and leaves
the area under the thermal ridge into the afternoon hours, which
should make for another day of above normal high temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Surface high behind the front is
shallow, but brings in a cool down for the day on Sunday with
highs around 70. Another shortwave trof moves across the
US/Canadian border on Monday, once again laying a band of warm mid
level temps right over eastern Kansas and making for another fall
day with highs near 80. Overnight lows through this period also
remain mild with lows in the 40s and 50s. The front that crosses
the northern plains into Tuesday is only forecast to take a
glancing blow across the northern part of the state, and current
forecast with highs in the lower 70s could be on the cool side.
Moisture return into mid week takes a little more direct flow off
the gulf, such that the next front that comes in later Wednesday
may have a better chance to develop some showers or thunderstorms
as it passes through. Uncertainty increases into Thursday as
models differ on how they take an upper trof over the prevailing
ridge. Temperatures at this time moderate back toward more
seasonal temps late in the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Less fog and stratus has occurred than previously thought. The low
level saturation appears to be inhibited by the wind speeds. The
current haze should begin to mix out later this morning. Gusty
southwest winds will continue through most of the day and even
into the overnight although speeds should slightly decrease.




SHORT TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.