Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 302044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
344 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

This afternoon a mid-level trough stretched from the northern
Rockies south-southeastward across the High Plains, with surface low
pressure also centered over the High Plains.  Water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave trough over Oklahoma with a stream of moisture
located east of the trough. This moisture from the Gulf extended
into Missouri, resulting in dewpoints into the 60s. Enough forcing
was present from this wave to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  Short-
range models show this precipitation becoming more widely scattered
across portions of northeast and east central Kansas late this
afternoon through early this evening before dissipating.  While
there was 2000-2500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE present, 0-6km bulk
shear values were weak at 20kts or less.  As a result, the potential
for any severe storms across eastern Kansas late this afternoon into
early this evening is very low but cannot rule out an isolated
stronger storm. The main hazards would be hail and perhaps some
gusty winds due to the pulse-y nature of the storms.

Models show the mid-level trough tracking eastward across the
Northern Plains overnight into Tuesday, which will help to push the
surface low pressure eastward into the area as well.  There is
fairly decent model agreement with the associated cold front
advancing into north central Kansas early Tuesday morning, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms likely developing along and
behind the front. As a result, models show increasing precipitation
chances across north central Kansas after midnight with the
scattered storms gradually spreading eastward across the CWA as the
cold front slowly advances to the east. Models show the north-south
oriented boundary bisecting the CWA by around 18z and not exiting
east of the area until Tuesday night.  Cannot rule out the potential
for a few stronger storms across north central Kansas overnight as
there may be slightly better 0-6km bulk shear possibly upwards of 20-
30kts.  This marginal risk for a few strong to severe storms will
extend into northeast and east central Kansas through the day on
Tuesday with 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE possible and 0-6km bulk shear
values possibly upwards of 20-25kts at times.  Again, main hazards
would be hail and gusty winds, but will also need to watch for
locally heavy rainfall with PWAT values of 1-1.5 inches. As for
temperatures, increasing cloud cover overnight should keep low
temperatures in the lower 60s with Tuesday high temperatures a bit
cooler in the mid/upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Wednesday, the upper level trough across the northern and central
plains will move east into the upper midwest. A cold front will move
southeast across the CWA during the morning hours. Any morning
showers and thunderstorms will move east of the CWA by noon. Skies
should clear from northwest to southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Highs will reach the mid 70s.

Wednesday night through Monday, a broad upper level ridge will
amplify across the western US while a closed southern stream upper
low develops across southern TX and remains nearly stationary as
it slowly fills. Expect mostly dry conditions through the period.
Some of the models show a weak trough digging southward across NE,
which may provide enough ascent for isolated showers and
thunderstorms Friday night. Highs through the period will be in
the lower 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

For the 18z TAFs, some scattered thunderstorms have developed
across southeast Kansas and these storms may become more widely
scattered near the TAF sites through this afternoon and early
evening. Expect this scattered precipitation to clear out later
this evening into the overnight hours. Several models are
suggesting that MVFR cigs/vis will be possible before sunrise Tuesday
morning as a stratus deck builds into the area. Some guidance is
even suggesting cigs could drop to IFR conditions at times.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible near
the TAF sites Tuesday morning as a front moves through the area,
however there is still some uncertainty in the timing and location
of this scattered precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke



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