Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FNUS21 KWNS 281641
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VALID 281700Z - 291200Z

...FAR ERN CO/WRN AND SRN KS/NRN OK...
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO SURFACE LOWS...ONE CENTERED OVER
CNTRL NEB AND THE OTHER OVER N-CNTRL SD...WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS ALREADY
THROUGH DDC...WHERE NWLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A CONTINUED SEWD PUSH OF
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS -- SUSTAINED SPEEDS
ABOVE 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH -- ACROSS WRN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
/MID 60S TO LOW 70S/ WITH RESULTANT MIN RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT.
AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION.

FARTHER S AND E -- S-CNTRL/SE KS AND NRN OK -- TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE 60S AND SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS ARE OVER 20 MPH.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED HERE WITH MIN RH
VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
ELEVATED AREA WAS TO SLIGHTLY EXPAND IT EWD/SEWD ACROSS NE OK/SE KS.

..MOSIER.. 01/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0308 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OFFSHORE
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS TOWARDS THE ERN
CONUS. FARTHER WEST...A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRANSIT E/SE
FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SRN TROUGH...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S/E ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST.

...FAR ERN CO/WRN AND SRN KS/NRN OK...
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN
KS/FAR ERN CO...DEEP W/NW FLOW AND DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSLOPE
FLOW/DIURNAL MIXING AND A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL YIELD RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE.

FARTHER SE...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS TO RESULT
IN MIN RH VALUES AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL. WITH
CONTINUED DRYING OF FINER FUELS...THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS ELEVATED
AREA WAS MAINTAINED AND EXTENDED SE TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SRN KS
AND NRN OK.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.