Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 140707
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN ID...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CREST A WRN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE...MOVING EWD ACROSS WA AND NRN ID...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS SERN
ID AND SWRN MT BY EARLY TUE. A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TSTM
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH MAINLY WET TSTMS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PAC NW...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL ID
SWWD ACROSS CNTRL NV AND THE NRN SIERRA FRONT. MEANWHILE...ENHANCED
MIDLEVEL ELYS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...CONTINUING TO SPREAD RICHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE W/NWWD ACROSS CA AND NV. FARTHER E...A SEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST...DRIVING AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWD WITH A
MUCH DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN...
SCATTERED DRY TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL/SRN ID. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.7-0.8 INCH AS MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN DRY/WELL-MIXED WITH SFC RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20
PERCENT. STORM MOTIONS OF 20-30 MPH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES COULD
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 0.1 INCH. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF
DRY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A CRITICAL RISK AREA.

ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL EXTEND SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN
NV...WHERE STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS. WHILE
COVERAGE MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL
NV...VERY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL YIELD SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS
THAN 10 MPH/...AND ENOUGH MIDLEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE A MIX OF WET/DRY TSTMS. THUS...ONLY AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
RISK WILL BE INCLUDED.

PRIMARILY WET TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NRN ID...ERN WA...AND WRN
MT...WHERE PW VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.3 INCH. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAXIMIZED
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

...SRN/CNTRL CA...
AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL YIELD PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.8
INCH...AND WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
QUANTITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE PRESENT...A MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE WET...BUT WITH LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSISTING...SOME RISK FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS MAY EXIST OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE CORES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIGHTER.

..ROGERS.. 07/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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