Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 241636
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN SRN ID...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SW AND CNTRL WY...

...MUCH OF SRN ID INTO NE UT...WY AND CNTRL/ERN MT...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS
TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST FORECAST MODEL DATA.
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...E-CNTRL NV INTO FAR SW UT...

NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 07/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0347 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER WRN WA PER 06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD...REACHING SRN ALBERTA BY 00Z WITH A MORE
EWD MOTION INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL DAMPEN AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EWD WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS EWD. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN MT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY. CYCLOGENESIS
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WRN SD
WITH THE LOW TRANSITIONING ESEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN SD OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL/ERN MT...MOST OF WY...S-CNTRL/SE ID...
MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL EXTEND OVER MUCH OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER N-CNTRL
AND NERN MT WHERE WLY WINDS MAY REACH 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...RH VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
CAST DOUBT ON THE RECEPTIVENESS OF THE FUELS. AS A RESULT...ELECTED
TO REMOVE THE CRITICAL DELINEATION FROM THE AREA. ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. DIFFERENCES IN
FRONTAL TIMING AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AROUND BIL. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO OUTLOOK A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.

FARTHER S /MOST OF WY AND S-CNTRL AND SE ID/...DEEP MIXING BENEATH
MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED
SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT QUICKLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
S-CNTRL AND SRN ID WHERE RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
LIKELY PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS CNTRL WY AS WELL. RESULTANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED OVER BOTH OF THESE AREAS WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SURROUNDING THEM.

...NE/CNTRL/SW UT...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...
DEEP MIXING AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS SWLY WINDS APPROACH 20 MPH AND RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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