Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 201701
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST CO...A SMALL PART OF
SOUTHWEST NE/SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST KS...

...Central High Plains...
A critical area has been added for portions of the central High
Plains, with critical wind/RH already being observed over portions
of far southeast WY and the NE Panhandle and these conditions likely
to spread southeast during the afternoon.

...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
Critical conditions are still expected to develop over portions of
east-central NM this afternoon, with elevated/locally critical
conditions extending eastward into portions of west TX and northward
into south-central CO. See the previous discussion below for more
details.

...OK/North TX northeast into Iowa...
The elevated area has been expanded to include portions of western
north TX northeast through OK, eastern KS, western MO, IA, and
eastern NE. A strong low-level jet will allow for strong
southwesterly winds this afternoon, with sustained winds of 20-30
mph expected. Morning soundings reveal very limited moisture, with
PW values generally below 0.25". Heating/mixing this afternoon
should allow for minimum RH values in the 20-30% range, sufficient
for elevated fire weather conditions given the strong winds.

..Dean.. 11/20/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern is forecast to become more amplified today,
as a ridge builds over the West.  As a result, strong northwesterly
flow aloft will impinge upon the central/southern Rockies.  At the
surface, a low pressure system will move eastward across
south-central Canada with a trough of low pressure extending
southward across the central/southern High Plains.

...East-central NM into portions of west TX and south-central CO...
Strong downslope flow across the region will aid in the downward
transport of high momentum air from aloft, resulting in dry and
breezy conditions at the surface.  The most likely location for
critical fire weather conditions is expected across east-central New
Mexico in the immediate lee of the higher terrain, where sustained
afternoon westerly surface wind speeds of 20-25 mph (with gusts over
30 mph by late afternoon) will coincide with RH values around 10%.
Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions are expected as RH
values fall below 15% with sustained winds of 15-20 mph.

...Portions of the central High Plains...
The winds aloft will be even stronger to the north, where downslope
flow will contribute to strong and gusty westerly surface winds,
especially in the immediate lee of the higher terrain in
southeastern Wyoming.  However, there is substantial uncertainty in
reaching critical RH values in that region, precluding the issuance
of a critical area at this time.  Farther east over the plains,
sustained wind speeds will be weaker (15-20 mph), but critical RH
values appear more likely, resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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