Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 290819
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN -- MOVING
SEWD. AS THESE SHORTWAVES CONTINUE SEWD...ENHANCED NWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
CONTINUED SEWD PROGRESS OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
BROAD TROUGHING FROM CNTRL ONTARIO SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
00Z/MON. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH ONTARIO WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY BY 00Z/MON. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT SEWD...MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 06Z/MON.

...PLAINS...
A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS GUSTY NLY WINDS OCCUR AMIDST A
DRY...POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SEWD/EWD...RESULTING AT LEAST SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND THE LOW RH VALUES/WARMEST
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH -- I.E. FROM
AROUND 25 MPH AT 18Z TO CLOSER TO 20 MPH BY 21Z -- TO WARRANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES
DROP INTO THE MID 20S /CNTRL PLAINS/ AND UPPER TEENS /SRN HIGH
PLAINS/. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
WITHIN THIS REGION -- SRN/CNTRL PLAINS -- IS WRN OK BUT EXPECTED
DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY TOO SHORT TO MERIT A
CRITICAL DELINEATION.

FOR AREAS FARTHER N /MID MO VALLEY/...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT
THE TREND WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE ABOVE 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AT 21Z. NAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND RAP
SUGGESTING DEWPOINT VALUES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. THE DRIER
SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH RH VALUES LIKELY AROUND 20-25 PERCENT AT
18Z AND CLOSER TO 20 PERCENT BY 21Z. THESE RH VALUES COUPLED WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIKE AREAS FARTHER S...THE FACTOR PRECLUDING
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS THE SHORT DURATION OF WINDS GREATER THAN 20
MPH AMIDST RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT.

..MOSIER.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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