Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 301453
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 301700Z - 011200Z

OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...THOUGH SOME
MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ORE WERE REMOVED...WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN NV AND CA AS WELL.
THIS IS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND DEPICTS WHERE THE BEST
OVERLAP OF LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS AND AVAILABLE FUELS EXISTS. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

..LEITMAN.. 09/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. COAST WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RESULTING
IN STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IN DRY AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON.  AT THE
SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE CASCADES...AND A HIGH
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN COLORADO.  THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST.

...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
OREGON...
THE AFOREMENTIONED GRADIENT...ALONG WITH VERTICAL MIXING OF
HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...WILL FOSTER 20-30 MPH SURFACE
FLOW IN MUCH OF THE REGION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S DURING PERIOD OF PEAK HEATING.
EACH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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