Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 221646
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Latest guidance suggests surface winds may be a bit stronger farther
south than initially thought, as such have expanded the critical
area southward.

Additionally, given cured fuels and a dry airmass in place, gusty
northwest winds will yield an elevated fire-weather threat across
much of Nebraska and portions of north-central Kansas. This area has
been added to the elevated delineation.

Lastly, relative-humidity values are expected to fall into the low
teens across more of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles than
expected. Given cured fine-fuels in the presence of low relative
humidity, have expanded the elevated area farther east to account
for these conditions.

..Marsh.. 02/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

...Synopsis...
In the mid levels, a trough will amplify over the Western States,
which will be accompanied by a belt of strong flow spreading across
parts of the Southwest to the central and southern Plains. As the
stronger flow and associated large-scale ascent emerge over parts of
the central and southern Rockies, a surface trough will deepen
across parts of the adjacent High Plains.

...Front range of the CO/NM Rockies eastward across portions of the
central/southern High Plains...
Enhanced downslope winds extending off portions of the Rockies will
support warming/drying over the adjacent High Plains. Westerly to
west-southwesterly winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are forecast
to combine with RH of 10-20 percent in support of elevated to
critical fire-weather conditions.

Present indications are that overlap of critically strong winds
(speeds of 20-25 mph) and low RH (10-15 percent) will be most likely
across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, and extreme western
parts of the TX and OK Panhandles. A Critical area is in effect for
these locations.

Across the surrounding Elevated area, elevated to
borderline-critical fire-weather conditions will be possible.
However, critically strong winds are not forecast to combine with
critically low RH on any more than a brief/spotty basis.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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