Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 251933
SWODY1
SPC AC 251931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR A COLD FRONT TODAY FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  A FEW OF THEM MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND
WISCONSIN.  THE OVERALL SEVERE-STORM THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL IN BOTH
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.

...DISCUSSION...

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO 1630Z OUTLOOK.

ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING THE WESTERN-MOST EDGE OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...ACCOUNTING FOR THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC
FRONT...A MRGL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN IL INTO SERN WI.

CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
NRN EXTENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXPAND
IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD SRN
LAKE MI.

..DARROW.. 09/25/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

...WI/IL/LM...
A BROAD TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND
ROCKIES...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MN/WI
INTO KS/OK.  A PLUME OF MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...MOST MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT OF A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF WI/NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MI LATER TODAY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE
THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$


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