Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 290048
SWODY1
SPC AC 290047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION OF
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms will persist across the parts of the southern
Great Plains this evening and into the overnight hours.  Very large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are likely.

...Discussion...
Several clusters of strong/locally severe storms are ongoing at this
time across western portions of Texas and Oklahoma this evening.
One main cluster of storms -- now crossing western North Texas and
adjacent southwest Oklahoma -- is the result of a congealing of
earlier/more isolated supercells.  This band will continue shifting
north-northeast, with damaging winds possibly likely emerging as the
primary risk, along with hail and perhaps a tornado.  This
convection will spread across western and central Oklahoma over the
next several hours, possibly reaching eastern portions of the state
overnight.

Meanwhile farther south, a few isolated cells are ongoing west of a
roughly CDS/ABI/SJT line, ahead of an evolving band of storms moving
east out of the Transpecos and South Plains region of West Texas.
This band of storms -- extending in a more loosely organized fashion
north-northwestward into northeast New Mexico -- is evolving along
the Pacific front.  The storms will continue to organize linearly
and spread east through a moderately unstable environment across
western and central Texas over the next several hours -- ingesting
isolated cells occurring ahead of the line.  While these
leading/isolated cells -- such as a lone supercell near DRT -- will
remain capable of producing very large hail and possibly a tornado,
damaging winds and inch- to golf ball-sized hail will be the primary
risks within the organizing line.

..Goss.. 03/29/2017

$$



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