Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 191629
SWODY1
SPC AC 191627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO PARTS OF WISCONSIN...AND OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS MT/DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
AFFECT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.  MULTIPLE AREAS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

...NORTHERN MN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHERN MN...IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.  HOWEVER...DECREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  12Z
CAMS CONSISTENTLY SHOW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS IN THIS REGION DURING
THE 22-02Z PERIOD...POSING A RISK OF HAIL.  THIS THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

...NEB/IA INTO WI...
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF
NEB/IA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING...WHICH WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF
STRENGTHENING SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE CAPE VALUES SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS FROM
NORTHEAST NEB...ACROSS NORTHERN IA...INTO WESTERN WI THIS EVENING.
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI INTO MI OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
ODDS OF VIGOROUS STORMS APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS IN
THIS AREA.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/19/2014



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