Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 011621
SWODY1
SPC AC 011619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF KS/MO INTO
AL/GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST US...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...SUMMARY...
CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
MISSOURI...POSSIBLY INTO NEIGHBORING EASTERN KANSAS...OFFERING
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.
DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL ALSO ARE HAZARDS FROM SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ARIZONA.

...TN VALLEY INTO AL/GA...
A REMNANT MCS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KY/TN.  THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCS
IS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
RE-INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS...POSING A THREAT OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS TN INTO PARTS OF AL/GA.

...MO/KS/AR...
DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THIS AREA LAST
NIGHT...RAPID HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF MO INTO EASTERN KS.
 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT OVER EASTERN NEB WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THIS REGION.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES LIKELY.
 HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CONSIDERABLE
VEERING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EFFECTS OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS.  STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER MCS DURING THE
EVENING...TRACKING INTO AR.

...MT INTO NEB...
VARIOUS 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS AND
CLUSTERS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO EASTERN NEB THIS
EVENING.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF AREAL COVERAGE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
MRGL RISK AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED
TO SLGT RISK LATER TODAY.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NY BENEATH A COOL UPPER TROUGH...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NEW
ENGLAND BY EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME HAIL.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL.

...AZ...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT HAVE TENDED TO STABILIZE THE
REGION SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY FORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN AZ AND PROPAGATES WESTWARD.
FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME RISK OF ROTATING
STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ...WHERE MARGINAL HAIL PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN ADDED.

..HART/COHEN.. 07/01/2015



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