Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS01 KWNS 051616
SWODY1
SPC AC 051614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHERWISE...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS POSITIVE-TILT MS VLY
TROUGH CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC...LEAVING BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION DOWNSTREAM FROM WEAK REX-TYPE BLOCK OVER
THE FAR WEST.

COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO MS VLY SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE STEADILY E/SE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SERN U.S...CLEARING ALL BUT S FL BY 12Z
FRI. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...NOW CENTERED
OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN CONFLUENT NATURE
OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH.

...WRN GULF CST/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY AFTN...
BANDED...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS
VLY/WRN GULF CST INTO THE AFTN...WHERE FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE WILL
FURTHER UNDERCUT DEEPENING POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR DOME. UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AS LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER THE LWR TN VLY CONTINUES NEWD AWAY FROM REGION.

...N FL/GA/SC THIS AFTN...
RELATIVELY THIN/BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CROSSING THE S ATLANTIC CSTL PLN
TODAY. COUPLED WITH WEAK MID-LVL COOL ADVECTION AND MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT WARM LAYER ALOFT SAMPLED BY 12Z AREA
SOUNDINGS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ERODED TO FOSTER SCTD SHOWER AND...
POSSIBLY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT. BUOYANCY
WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
FRONT WILL QUICKLY UNDERCUT SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO FORM. THUS...SVR
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE PRESENCE OF AMPLE MOISTURE/DEEP
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 03/05/2015



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.