Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 051942
SWODY1
SPC AC 051940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 05/05/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016/

...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
AS PART OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS...A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  DEEP-LAYER SLY/SELY FLOW AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE NW NV/NE CA BORDER ACROSS ERN ORE TO THE ID
PANHANDLE.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE...IN
COMBINATION WITH MLCAPE AOA 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ORGANIZED /POTENTIALLY SUPERCELL/ STORM
STRUCTURES WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

...CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...
SURFACE HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F
HAVE SUPPORTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL/S CENTRAL NC AS OF LATE MORNING.
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22 TO -24 C AT 500 MB/ WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL LOW FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS SUGGEST THAT
SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND OVERALL RISK FOR HAIL AOA 1
INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES TO
THE OUTLOOK.

$$



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