Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 260450
SWODY1
SPC AC 260448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

WEAK LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH A DOMINANT UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS KS INTO NRN MO.  THIS ENHANCED
BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD AID ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL OF
CONVECTION AS IT MATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATE THURSDAY EVENING...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WAS
OBSERVED FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NEWD INTO SERN KS.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REINFORCE A SFC FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED IN A
SW-NE ORIENTED FASHION ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY
NWD...POSSIBLY DELAYED EARLY IN THE DAY DUE TO ONGOING TSTMS.  BY
LATE AFTERNOON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD RETURN INTO SRN KS WHERE
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE
WIND SHIFT.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHICH SHOULD REMOVE
ANY INHIBITION.  WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INTO SWRN KS.  WHILE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...STRONGER
UPDRAFTS SHOULD EVOLVE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OVER THE SLGT RISK
REGION.  FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS AND WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR
GIVEN THE FAVORABLY MOIST AND STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH EWD-PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH AND MODEST SHEAR WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT...SFC DEW POINTS
COULD RISE TO NEAR 50F INVOF OF THE BLACK HILLS AS TEMPERATURES RISE
TO NEAR 70F.  A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 08/26/2016

$$



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