Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 040759
SWODY3
SPC AC 040758

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY.
OCCLUDED LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL WEAKEN...WHILE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOVED
INLAND THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD FORCE THIS
BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST AND OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA.
INFLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE
STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH INITIALLY
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PROMOTING A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 12/04/2016

$$



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