Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 290604
SWODY3
SPC AC 290603

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN AND
CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
MONDAY ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWARD ONTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...FLORIDA...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...RAINBANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF ERIKA ARE FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA ON MONDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE
ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA...STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT COULD BE LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL FL
PENINSULA WHERE A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS WHERE
THE MODELS FORECAST POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. WITH FLORIDA AS THE
EXCEPTION...WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CONUS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 08/29/2015



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