Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010927
NEZ000-SDZ000-011200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0427 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 010927Z - 011200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY TSTMS EVOLVING
FROM PARTS OF SWRN SD INTO CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENED BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAX
AND RELATED INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A NW/SE-ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE ANALYZED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY
IS FOSTERING AN UPSWING IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM THE BLACK HILLS REGION
INTO CNTRL NEB. EARLIER 00Z RAOBS AT LBF AND RAP SAMPLED MODERATELY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- E.G. AROUND 7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THE H7-H5
LAYER -- PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL NWLYS SAMPLED BY
AREA VWPS IS ENHANCING DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CELLS OFFERING SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. SIMILAR
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REGION IS
DEVOID OF ANY SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS STRONGLY
ENHANCING DEEP ASCENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NO MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK. FURTHERMORE...THE DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE
PBL SHOULD RESULT IN ABOUT NIL SVR-WIND RISK.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   40889935 42750195 43790309 44510273 44330176 43360023
            42209894 41009804 40889935



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