Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 262022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262021
MNZ000-WIZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262021Z - 262115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING TSTMS OVER CNTRL MN...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
EWD INTO ERN MN AND PARTS OF NWRN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS INCREASINGLY VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM
N-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL MN...WITH A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED
RECENTLY. A NARROW MOIST PLUME PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 50S-LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS...WAS NOTED
ON THE 20Z SFC ANALYSIS...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT...AND MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING A
SRN CANADA UPPER LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW /50 KT AT 500 MB/
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   48019038 46899099 45979148 44949317 44809413 45179518
            46069529 47839470 48589431 48679332 48319120 48019038



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