Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 240441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240441
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-240645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Maryland into New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240441Z - 240645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Areas of storms may increase across the region, but are
expected to mainly be non-severe over land. A few strong wind gusts
appear most likely.

DISCUSSION...Modest warm advection in the low-levels is helping to
create lift, resulting in a rash of thunderstorm development from
eastern MD into southern NJ. Recently, an impressive supercell had
developed near the NJ coast and is now offshore. To the west, cells
have shown mainly weak/broad rotation at times. This corresponds
well with observed wind profiles, which show veering winds with
height, but with weak magnitude resulting in small hodographs.

Models show this general area of storms lifting east/northeastward
tonight, with perhaps some increase in storm intensity over the
ocean. A few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with any cells
over land, especially if they show signs of rotation, or, if they
conglomerate into larger clusters. The weak lapse rate environment,
unfavorable time of day, and modest low-level shear should keep
tornado threat minimal. However, trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 07/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39297369 39157487 38897653 39057674 39537688 39937642
            40287562 40567364 40727240 40637214 40197188 39617214
            39457233 39297369



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