Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 180046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180046
ARZ000-OKZ000-180245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AR AND ADJACENT ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180046Z - 180245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER LOCALLY ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN AR VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING SWD/SWWD INVOF THE NWRN AR/ERN OK BORDER ATTM...NEAR AND JUST
TO THE COOL SIDE OF AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  EVENING RAOBS
CONFIRM THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS
AREA...AS HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...THUS ASSISTING
IN CONTINUED CELL REGENERATION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

THE STRONGEST STORM -- NOW MOVING SWD ACROSS CRAWFORD CO -- HAD
SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED.  WHILE SHEAR OVER SRN MO/NRN AR IS SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS WITH SWWD EXTENT -- AND
THUS EXPECT A GRADUAL/CONTINUED DECREASE IN SEVERE RISK AS STORMS
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THAT
SAID HOWEVER...DEGREE OF CAPE SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF
STORMS...AND THUS SEVERE RISK MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS
STORMS CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE OK/AR BORDER AREA.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 09/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   36529510 36289495 35879434 35409353 34729336 34539443
            35379567 36469559 36529510



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