018
FXUS61 KAKQ 200018
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
818 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions Monday, with a warming trend leading to a more
summerlike pattern by the middle and end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Clouds temporarily scatter out later this evening, then build
  back in overnight. Lows in the mid-50s tonight.

- Areas of fog possible in the Piedmont late tonight.

Cloudy conditions persist over portions of the area this
evening. Some clearing is possible before clouds build back in
later this evening. Sfc high pressure centered over Atlantic
Canada is still ridging into the local area while low pressure
spins well offshore. Guidance continues to show the potential
for areas of fog, generally along and west of I-95 after
midnight. Fog could become dense in spots with visibility
dropping below 1/2 mile. Fog and low stratus should mix out
quickly inland but likely hang on along the coast. Lows tonight
will be in the mid-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

- A noticeable warming trend this week, though it remains cooler
  at the coast relative to inland locations.

Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week
as an UL ridge builds in and the sfc high over Canada shifts south.
Onshore flow will continue through Tues, though, so coastal areas
will remain slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start.
Highs on Mon will be in the upper 70s in the piedmont, low-mid 70s
in the E, and upper 60s immediately near the coast. Tues will have
highs in the low 80s inland and low 70s at the coast. Will likely
still see some gradient in temps Wed as winds shift to the SE, then
S. Mid 80s are expected for most locations, but upper 70s to near 80
close at the coast. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s during this
period. Regarding cloud cover, starting out mostly cloudy Mon
morning, then scattering out in the afternoon. Mostly sunny/clear
skies for Tues and Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

-A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for showers
and thunderstorms

-Warm with additional chances for afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend

Hot weather continues into Thursday as the ridge aloft gets
suppressed/pushed offshore ahead of the approaching system. Highs
will be close to 90 with slightly cooler temps in the Eastern Shore.
A cold front will then cross the region, bringing chances for
thunderstorms. Still far enough out that there is some uncertainty
in the timing and coverage of precip associated with the front, but
global models are in general agreement that the frontal passage
occurs Thursday night. Still maintaining Chnc PoPs moving from the
NW in the afternoon and moving E later in the evening. Thunderstorms
are probable given plenty of sfc-based instability. Certainly cannot
rule out any severe weather at this time given 40-50 kt of upper-
level flow overspreading the region. Likely cooler on Friday if the
front has passed. Still showing temps around 80 across northern
counties and low-mid 80s elsewhere. Warm temps stick around through
the weekend with highs around 80 both Sat and Sun. There will be
daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms Fri-
Sun, though uncertainty is high due to disagreement between global
models in sfc and upper air features.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...

Most areas have improved to VFR this evening as some drier air
moves in aloft. MVFR stratus continues for the areas around ORF
and ECG. Will maintain prevailing MVFR in these areas despite
some guidance showing a short period where scattering out is
possible. Winds are generally onshore (NE-E-SE) 5-10 kt but are
expected to become light and variable away from the coast by mid
evening. Guidance shows the potential for widespread fog in the
Piedmont and extensive IFR CIGs near the coast tonight. RIC will
be tricky on which will dominate but IFR looks likely either
way. Fog and stratus will mix out inland on Monday morning but
MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger near the coast.

Outlook: Lower CIGs potentially lingering along the coast
through Monday evening with flight restrictions possible. VFR
expected elsewhere Monday. Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Lingering SCA conditions over much of the coastal waters and
  lower bay due to seas.

- Generally quiet marine conditions starting Monday night and
  continuing for much of the week.

A high pressure ridge continues from New England south-southwestward
through the Virginia Piedmont. Meanwhile, low pressure is over South
Carolina and Georgia. This has led to persistent NE flow across
all of the waters, with the strongest being mainly south of
Cape Charles where the pressure gradient is strongest. As the
low moves offshore later tonight into Monday, the high will
gradually build southward, then eventually move offshore. Expect
NE winds to persist at 10 to 15 kt tonight, then perhaps
increase slightly on Monday to as high as 15 kt over the coastal
waters. The persistent NE flow has allowed seas to build to 4
to 6 feet across the southern waters and 3 to 5 feet across the
northern waters. Waves in the bay generally 2 to 3 feet
(although perhaps up to 4 feet in the entrance to the bay).
These seas will continue through Monday, especially given the
possible increase of NE winds forecast on Monday. Will leave all
small craft advisories in place for now, although it is noted
that north of Cape Charles the winds/waves are very marginal.
Better chances for 5 ft waves well north of Cape Charles may be
on Monday.

Winds will turn southerly by Tuesday  evening as the high shifts
offshore. After Monday, am not expecting any further SCA for the
remainder of the forecast period.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast through Monday for the
southern beaches given a NE wind of 15-20kt and nearshore waves of 4-
 5ft. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern
beaches as the NE wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt with 3-
4ft nearshore waves. Lower risk of rip currents for Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with
Sebrell now expected to go to minor flood later this afternoon.
The river will likely stay in flood through tomorrow before
falling tomorrow night and Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may
cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites
should stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday....

Astronomical tides will gradually increase over the next few days.
With the persistent NE flow through Monday and water level anomalies
already at 1 to 1.5 ft above normal, expect some nuisance to
minor coastal flooding during tonight`s high tide, and most
likely again with the Monday evening high tide. Will issue a
coastal flood advisory during high tide tonight the bay side MD
eastern shore with a statement in Hampton Roads and the Northern
Neck highlighting nuisance flooding with many sites reaching
action stage.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ652-654-656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM/RHR
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MRD
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...