Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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788
FXUS61 KAKQ 221038
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
638 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Post-Tropical Storm Jose will continue to weaken as it lingers off
the New England coast through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure
will expand into the Mid-Atlantic. Hurricane Maria is forecast to
move northward between the offshore Atlantic waters and Bermuda
through the early part of next week. A cold front is expected to
cross the region by mid-week as Maria passes well to our east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure in control
of our weather pattern while Post-Tropical Storm Jose lingers well
north of the area off of the New England Coast. Patchy fog will
remain possible, especially in typical fog-prone locations, across
portions of the Piedmont and NE NC through early morning before
quickly dissipating after sunrise. Another day of mostly sunny skies
is expected for much of the area. The only exception will be some
higher clouds, as a result of PTC Jose, working in from the
northeast through the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be
unseasonably warm (4 to 6 degrees above average for late September)
on Friday under an upper ridge. Temperatures may remain slightly
cooler over portions of the Maryland Eastern Shore depending on
cloud cover. No precipitation is anticipated for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will be in control of our
weather pattern through the weekend. High pressure in combination
with NNE flow will allow for continued dry weather and above normal
temperatures. Highs will generally range from the low to mid 80s,
except mid to upper 70s at the beaches. Lows will range from the
lower 60s inland to upper 60s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior
NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon before weakening
thereafter. Meanwhile...a much weakened/remnant circulation (of
Jose) slowly circulates SSE of New England. Other than periodic
clouds...esp at the coast by/over the weekend-Mon due to light
onshore flow...expecting dry/mainly warm. Lows Sun night mainly
in the m-u60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the
coast...m80s inland.

Wx conditions Tue-Wed remain dependent on track of Tropical
Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose)
would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more
to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally
going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center on Maria through the
weekend. Dry/warm wx expected Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will influence the
weather pattern with VFR conditions and mostly light wind.
Patchy fog that has mainly developed in outlying locations this
morning will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Higher clouds
work in from the NE this afternoon due to Post- Tropical
Cyclone Jose.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through early next week due
to the influence of high pressure over the reason.

&&

.MARINE...
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose remains centered SE of Cape Cod
early this morning and is forecast to remain nearly stationary
through Saturday morning, before gradually pushing ewd through
Sunday. Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria is located near the Turks and
Caicos early this morning and is forecast to track to the NNW
through Saturday and then on a northerly track through Tuesday about
equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall below
5ft over the next few days. However, the SCA for hazardous seas will
continue, and has been extended to 10z Sunday as energetic ENE swell
will continue. Swell arrives from Maria most likely beginning late
this weekend and continuing into next week. SCAs for seas will
likely be needed into early next week. The bulk of the forecast
guidance keeps Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of
next week. Monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track
of Maria. A further increase in seas is expected Monday through
Wednesday along with an increasing northerly wind Tuesday-Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures continue to fall today, with tidal departures
generally averaging less than 1.5 ft above normal tide. This has
allowed all of our sites to stay below flood stage during
today`s high tide, with the exception of Lewisetta, Bishops Head
and Bayford, which may go one more high tide cycle late this
afternoon into this evening with minor flooding. As such, will
cancel/expire all of the coastal flood advisories with the
exception of the central Bay. Water levels should remain
elevated all all sites through the weekend, but given that the
swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just
below flood after tomorrow. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially in the bay, as the swell from
Maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today and possibly tomorrow as swell/nearshore
waves will be slow to subside.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/ALB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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