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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 092050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
350 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE REGION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DIGGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. VIGOROUS ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS HAS TRIGGERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING NORTHWARD OF THIS AREA WITH MODEST
ASCENT...BUT THE SOUTHERN BATCH OF RAIN IS LIMITING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH. NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE TIDEWATER
SHOULD RECEIVE STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHTER INLAND...BUT COULD BEGIN AS
SLEET IN THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND RICHMOND AREA BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. SNOW...SLEET...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
NECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE...BUT ALSO DRAW MID LEVEL
WARM AIR NORTH...CHANGING SNOW AND SLEET TO RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE.

THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AS
COLD AIR RETURNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES. SNOW SHOULD EXTENDED WEST INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA IN THE MORNING REACHING SOUTH TO NEAR THE RICHMOND
METRO AREA. SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
EASTERN SHORE. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION...8 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DORCHESTER COUNTY MARYLAND...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FROM THE
NORTHERN NECK TO LOUISA COUNTY. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TOWARD THE RICHMOND METRO AREA...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
SOUTH OF THE PETERSBURG AREA. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN AS IS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...WITH NOTTOWAY...DINWIDDIE...AND PRINCE GEORGE COUNTIES
REMOVED AS THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER THAN NRML WX PTRN CONTS THROUGH THE XTNDD PD. NAO RMNG
NEG...W/ STRNG LO PRES CIRCULATING INVOF XTRM ERN CANADA/CANADIAN
MARITIMES...KPS ANOMALOUS/DP TROUGH LOCKED OVR THE ERN CONUS. LO
PRES STILL XPCTD TO STAY S OF THE RGN FRI INTO SAT. AFT THAT...XTNDD
GUID SUGGS THAT THERE WL BE A BRK IN THE SRN STMS TRACKING FM THE
LWR PLAINS TO THE E CST FM THE WKND THROUGH ERY NEXT NEXT WK.
RE-ENFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR SUGGD LT SUN INTO MON. OTRW...DRY/NW FLO
XPCTD ERY NEXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS WL CONTINUE THRU THIS AFTN AS RADAR SHOWS SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED MOISTURE DVLPMNT IN CENTL VA. RIC AND SBY WILL SEE
A MIX OF SN/RN/IP WITH TIMING CHANGE OVER DIFFICULT. THREAT OF ZR
HAS DIMINISHED FOR RIC AS MOISTURE LACKING THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE
RA PSBL RAPL LATE AFTN 21Z AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RA THRU
09Z AND SN BY SR. SBY COULD SEE A MIX LATE THIS AFTN BEFORE CHANGE
TO RA THIS EVE AND THEN SN ARND SR. SERN SITES PHF/ORF/ECG WILL BE
RA OVERNIGHT BECOMING SN WED AM. ONCE PRECIP BEGINS ALL SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THRU WEDS AM.

STILL LOOKING AT STRONG NW WINDS TO DVLP ALONG THE COASTAL THIRD
(35-40 KTS+)...INLAND RIC COULD SEE GUST 25 TO 30 KT... WED AS
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OFF THE NJ/SRN NEW ENGL COAST WED/THU. POSSIBLE
LIFR WED PM IN SNOW (ESP NEAR/AT SBY). WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STRONG INTO THU AS PRECIP CHCS ENDS QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE.
VFR RETURNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SCNDRY LO PRES WILL DVLP ONCE AGN INVOF VA CAPES OVRNGT...THEN
INTENSIFY SGFNTLY AS IT EXITS THE CST AND TRACKS NE TUE THROUGH
WED/WED NGT. ONSHR WNDS AHD OF THAT SYS INCRSG LT TUE THROUGH TUE
NGT (TO SCA - EVENTUALLY)...THEN A SWING IN DRCTN TO WNW XPCTD ON
WED. W/ STM INTENSIFYING OFFSHR...AND STRENGTH OF LLVL CAA IN ITS
WAKE...GALES XPCTD ALL WTRS...DVLPG WED MRNG/MIDDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
HI PRBLTY OF STM SPDS (AT LEAST GUSTS) ON THE OCN WTRS...MOST LIKELY
FM WED AFTN INTO (ERY THU). INSTEAD OF TMG RAMP-UP HEADLINES...PLAN
IS TO SIMPLIFY THEM...GALES ON THE BAY/SND...STM WRNG ON
THE OCN (STARTING BTWN 12-15Z WED)...LASTING THROUGH WED NGT
(PTNTLLY ERY THU NRN OCN WTRS. MOD NW WNDS CONTS THU INTO FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WRNGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE CHOWAN
RIVER BASIN. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER MEHERRIN AND NOTTOWAY RIVERS HAVE
CRESTED AND THE LOWER NOTTOWAY CONTINUES GRADUAL RISES. SEE FLSAKQ
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING ARND/A TOUCH BLO NRML ATTM. MAIN CONCERN IS W/ WNDSHFT
TO NW (AND INCREASE) ON WED...CONTG INTO THU. PSBL MINOR FLDG ON THE
ERN SHR OF THE CHES BAY...INVOF DORCHESTER CTY...(AND THOUGH GUID
CURRENTLY NOT REALLY SHOWING IT)...THE PTNTL BLOW OUT TIDES ON THE
CST/SRN BAY WED AFTN THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ021>025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     060>073-079>084-087>098.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ099.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     VAZ074>078-085-086-099-100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VAZ060>062-068>071-082>084-090.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     063-064-072>078-085.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AZ
NEAR TERM...AZ
SHORT TERM...AZ
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...CY
MARINE...ALB
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ALB