Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 192120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
420 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A warm front lifts north of the area Tuesday morning. High pressure
becomes anchored off the southeast coast Tuesday and Wednesday
bringing a return to well above normal temperatures. A backdoor
cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region through the end of
the week.


Latest MSAS has the high well off the coast with a warm front
snaking its along and west of the mts. This warm front is progged to
lift north across the area late tonight. Before that happens,
airmass is loaded with moisture from todays rain and with temps/dew
point temps slowly rising, expect drizzle and fog to continue
through the night. Could also have some areas of dense fog before
fropa, but not ready to put that into the grids just yet. Temps
steady in the 50s.


Low clouds/patchy fog will be slow to erode Tues morning. Think
clouds will break up/scour out by noon. Strong sfc high offshore
becomes the dominate "bermuda" high. Thus, with rising H5 heights
and H85 temps, temps will rise into the 70s Tue except in the 60s
at the beaches. Not quite to record highs Tue but feeling spring-
like nonetheless. Mild Tues night with lows in the 50s. Warmest
day will be Wed where record highs will likely fall across the
region. Dry with highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches.

A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and
progged to be near the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture
increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than
previous models had. Will carry low chc pops across the nrn half of
the fa late Wed nite. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60 South.

The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to
central Virginia by 00Z Fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops
across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south.
Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs
mid-upr 50s lwr Md eastern shore...60s over most of the area
with 70s across NC.


Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period, altho
above normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal boundary
just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift back north
as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a 20-40% chc
of showers. That boundary will be just north of the CWA during
Sat, as a cold front starts to push into the OH/TN valley. Will
have slgt chc to chc Pops, mainly nrn and wrn counties. Chcs for
showers will then increase fm the NW Sat night into Sun, as the
cold front approaches and pushes into the region. Expecting
mainly dry wx Sun night and Mon, as the front pushes out to sea
and high pressure builds into and over the area.

Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri, mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s Sat and Sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon.
Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid
40s to lower 50s Sun night.


Steady batch of rain has moved east but TSCTNS loaded with
moisture at most levels to keep IFR conditions due to drizzle
and fog through 12Z. Models showing vsbys as low as 1/2sm in fog
tonight. A warm front will lift north of the region Tues morning
slowly drying out the upr levels while the lwr levels are slow
to scour out. Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range
by or shortly after 15Z Tue with VFR conditions not expected
until the end of the forecast period. Some SW wind sheer noted
ivof the warm front near SBY Tue morning as well.

A back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed night then
drops south across the area Thurs. Expect a return to IFR/MVFR
conditions in rain/fog Thurs behind this feature.


No headlines in the short term tonight thru Wed. A warm front
will lift north of the area by Tue morning. Then, sfc high
pressure will be anchored well off the Mid Atlc coast Tue into
Wed night. This will provide sub-SCA SSW flow tonight into Wed
night, with waves generally 1-2 ft on the Bay, and seas 2-3 ft
on the ocean. With winds remaining below SCA criteria, will need
to monitor for marine fog, esply tonight thru Wed, as dew points
increase into the 50s.

Back door cold front then drops acrs the region during Thu,
turning winds to the N/NE (10-15 kt most areas) into Fri. The
front then lifts back north as a warm front later Fri, and will
move north of the region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase
Thu into Fri.


Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue
2/20 and Wed 2/21:

* Record highs:

* Date: Tue 2/20   Wed 2/21

* RIC:  77 (1930)  75 (1930)
* ORF:  77 (1991)  79 (2014)
* SBY:  75 (1930)  75 (1943)
* ECG:  78 (1991)  77 (2014)


KAKQ radar will be down UFN. See FTMAKQ for details.




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