Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 111807
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
107 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the Gulf coast region through tonight,
as low pressure moves through the northern tier of the nation.
A more prominent low pressure system will move from the Great
Lakes into New England Tuesday through Tuesday night, pushing a
strong cold front through the local area. Expect markedly colder
temperatures across the region for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis reveals a broad area of high pressure
(~1030 mb) centered from the western Gulf coast across the deep
south. To the north, Low pressure continues to slide across the
Adirondack Mtns, with the associated surface front extending
back into the Ohio Valley. To the northwest, a shortwave diving
south from southern Saskatchewan across the Dakotas, dragging a
strong cold south across the upper midwest/Western Great Lakes
today and through the Ohio Valley tonight.

Ahead of the front, lingering mid to high clouds, associated
with another vort lobe pivoting across the Delmarva at sunrise,
exiting with the departing upper trough. Sky again turns mainly
sunny behind this feature today. Temperatures do moderate
slightly, with milder highs today into the mid-upper 40s most
areas to lower 50s SE coast.

After a clear start, sky will become partly to mostly cloudy
late tonight ahead of the approaching front to the west.
Veering low-level flow to the S-SW should bring a slightly
milder night with early morning lows in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Day begins with potent upper shortwave pinwheeling across the
interior northeast, with the strong cold front pushing across
the area from late morning through early evening Tuesday. Should
be enough pre-frontal SW flow Tue to bring one last relatively
mild day Tuesday, with highs into the mid- upper 50s SE to the
upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the day from NW
to SE. Wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph Tuesday afternoon...gusting to
30 to 40 mph Tuesday night.

Temperatures quickly tumble into the 20s/30s early Tuesday
night, with early morning lows in the teens NW to 20s elsewhere
Wednesday morning under a clearing sky. Brisk NW winds will
quickly knock wind chills down into the 10-20 F range Wed
morning. Even with mainly sunny skies Wed, highs will struggle
to get above the lower 30s N and mid 30s S...with wind chills
remaining in the 20s or colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive WNW flow pattern is expected for the latter half
of this week through next weekend, featuring a series of nrn
stream (moisture-starved) clipper systems. The first wave
pushes through during the Wednesday night/Thursday timeframe.
The 10/12z ECMWF is about 12hrs quicker than the GFS, but
regardless PoPs are less than 15% with limited moisture and
downslope flow. Another wave quickly follows Friday. The GFS is
more nrn stream dominated while the ECMWF pushes a srn stream
wave off the Southeast coast. Again, there is little support for
pcpn locally, so forecast PoPs are less than 15%. Shortwave
ridging prevails Saturday with another quick moving trough
pushing through the region Sunday. High temperatures Thursday-
Saturday will generally be in the 40s to around 50F SE, then
low/mid 50s by Sunday as the aforementioned trough will provide
mixing with limited CAA. Low temperatures will primarily be in
the 20s for much of the area to low 30s SE later this week, and
then rise to the upper 20s/mid 30s (upper 30s/around 40F far SE)
by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 18z TAF period and beyond.
SKC for today with light S/SW winds. Some increasing clouds
tonight into Tue ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and
associated strong sfc cold front. Mainly just some SCT-BKN mid
clouds with this. SW winds shift to W then NW as the front
slides through the area Tue, with gusts up to 20-30 kt at times
Tue aftn. Expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the week
ahead.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slide over the area and to the coast during
today. Sub-SCA conditions expected everywhere fm this morning
into Tue morning, as high pressure slides acrs the area and to
the coast while a cold front starts to approach fm the west.
That cold front will push thru the waters Tue aftn into early
Tue evening, with strong CAA expected behind the front on NW or
W winds thru Wed aftn or Wed evening. SCA conditions expected
over much of the marine area fm Tue thru Wed aftn/evening. Low-
end gales will be possible Tue night and Wed, esply over the
coastal wtrs.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ633.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...TMG


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