Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 280847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
447 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain showers track into areas mainly near and
east of the Hudson River today with the most widespread and steady
rain in western New England. Rain diminishes tonight with dry yet
breezy conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest GOES16 water vapor and IR imagery shows a plume of
moisture streaming northward from the Southeast into the
Northeast. With a 300hPa jet intensifying over southern Ontario
and much of the Northeast positioned in its right entrance
region, increased upper level divergence and synoptic lift
focused along the moisture corridor has allowed rain showers to
blossom and spread into eastern NY and western New England but
have remained mainly east of the Hudson River. MRMS and NYS
mesonet observations should the steadiest rain in western New
England with 3-hrly rainfall amounts ranging 0.10 - 0.25" in
the mid-Hudson Valley, southern/central Taconics into the
Litchfield and Berkshire County. As expected, there is a sharp
east-west QPF gradient straddling the Capital District likely
coinciding with the wind shift boundary with the City of Albany
and Troy on the far western fringe of the rainfall while
Schenectady and Saratoga remain dry. Areas along and east of
this wind shift boundary have remained foggy as well through
early this morning given the mild/moist air mass over the still
cold ground (especially where a deeper snow pack remains). Our
Special Weather Statement alerting motorist to reduced
visibility mainly near and north of I-90 will remain in place
through 12 UTC.

Periods of rain continue through about 12 UTC or so before
turning more scattered this morning for a few hours. However,
this brief lull will be short-lived as rain becomes steady
again by midday and continues into the afternoon. This is due to
a southern stream shortwave in the Southeast that will round
the base of the parent trough and take on a negative tilt
resulting in increased height falls for much of the East Coast
as a plume of rich moisture continues to stream northward. The
steadiest and most widespread rain will likely be directed east
of the Hudson River with western New England experiencing nearly
a washout of a day. Probabilistic and ensemble guidance
suggests that the east to west QPF gradient will be sharp and
likely focused along an incoming mid- level boundary where
strong low- level convergence will overlap the region of highest
low and mid-level moisture. This corridor was used to decide
the western extent of likely POPs which again only extended as
far west as the Hudson River. POPs quickly trend downwards to
chance for much of the Capital District and eastern Catskills
with slight chance into the eastern Mohawk Valley and northern
Catskills. The western Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley
likely remain dry today.

Total QPF amounts today should range 0.25 - 0.50" for western
New England, the mid-Hudson Valley, and the Taconics but
quickly trend downwards to just around a 0.10" for the Capital
District and Upper Hudson Valley. Given extensive clouds and
incoming rain showers, temperatures today will be similar to
yesterday, only rising into the mid to upper 40s. As our sfc
wind shift boundary pushes east into New England this morning,
west-northwest in its wake will strengthen becoming sustained
5-12kts. This will help scour our morning fog.

Rain exits from west to east this 00 - 06 UTC tonight as a
coastal low rapidly develops off the Carolinas and tracks
northeastward towards New England. While previous forecasts
discussed if the western fringe of this coastal low would
scrape our western New England areas, latest guidance suggests
the bulk of the rain will remain focused to our east thanks to
the sfc wind shift boundary exiting to our east earlier in the
day. Rain will linger over western New England the latest but
should still exit by or shortly after Midnight. While the
highest rainfall amounts for our hydrologic service area fall
over the Housatonic River Basin which is already elevated given
recent heavy rain events, latest forecast from the River
Forecast Center still keep crest levels below flood stage.

Although clouds will be slow to erode away tonight even after
rain ends, breezy northwest winds with reaching gusts up to
25kts will result in cold and dry air advection. Overnight lows
will drop into the low to mid 30s with mid to upper 20s in the
higher terrain areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Both Friday and Saturday will feature gusty northwest winds as
our coastal low rapidly deepens off the New England coast and
tracks into the Canadian Maritime. The tightening sfc pressure
gradient overhead combined with cold and dry air advection will
support deep boundary mixing both days, raising questions if
guidance is adequately representing just how gusty we may
become. We collaborated with neighboring WFOs to blend in more
of the NBM90th and our latest forecast now shows northwest winds
reaching up to 30-35kts on Friday and 25-30kts on Saturday. The
strongest wind gusts should be focused down the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District and Berkshire County.

Otherwise, Friday will feature limited sunshine as the parent
trough moves overhead and cold air advection supports lake
effect clouds extending off Lake Ontario into eastern New York
and western New England. It will also feel cooler given drier
air mass and gusty winds, despite highs reaching into to the
mid to upper 40s to around 50 in the Hudson Valley. Gusty winds
continue Friday night with skies gradually clearing towards
sunrise as subsidence in the wake of the parent trough spreads
into the region. Overnight lows again drop into the mid to upper
20s with around freezing in the Hudson Valley. Breezy winds keep
temperatures a bit elevated.

We finally will see the sun again on Saturday as large scale
subsidence keeps skies mainly sunny, at least for the first half
of the day. Deep boundary layer mixing and dry air advection
(PWATs dropping under 0.25") will maintain the gusty northwest
but winds should not be quite as gusty as Friday. Given deep
mixing and the incoming dry air mass, we lowered dew points to
match NBM10th guidance. We may check in with Fire Weather
partners to check on fuel levels for Saturday as the dry air
mass and breezy winds may raise some fire weather concerns.
Otherwise, high temperatures Saturday should reach into the low
to mid-50s for the Hudson Valley with mid to upper 40s for the
hill towns and higher terrain.

Some clouds return late in the day as mid-level ridging slides
into New England and a warm front from the mid-Atlantic inches
northward. Depending on the northern extent of the front, a few
showers may graze our far western zones Saturday night but
there is still a decent amount of spread in the guidance so
limited POPs to just slight chance. Otherwise, temperatures
should once again drop into the upper 20s to low-mid 30s for
much of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the start of the extended period, dry weather looks to be in
place on Easter Sunday.  Fairly zonal flow will be in place aloft
and our area will be in between any potential storm systems,
allowing for a mix of sun and clouds with seasonable temps.  With
high pressure nosing southward from southern Canada, dry weather
looks to also continue for Sunday night into Monday with temps near
normal (30s at night and 40s/50s during the day).

The next storm system looks to impact the region for the middle of
the week.  This will be large storm system approaching from the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.  As it heads toward the Northeast, the
large upper level low associated with this storm system may cut off
over the region.  Steady precip looks to arrive on Tuesday and
continue into Wednesday.  Some high terrain and northern areas could
see some snow or mixed precip at the onset, although most areas will
see primarily rain with this storm system.  However, some ensembles
do suggest a changeover to snow showers before ending, as the large
cold pool moves across the region by late Wed or Thursday.  With a
good chance for precip, have gone with high CHC or likely POPs for
the midweek, along with plenty of cloud cover.  Daytime temps will
be held into the 40s with the expected clouds/precip and some 30s
are possible for the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread low level moisture is allowing for plenty of low clouds
and fog early this morning. Most sites are currently seeing IFR/LIFR
conditions, although there may start to be some improvement towards
daybreak for KGFL/KALB, as model soundings suggests enough low level
dry air moving in from the north could allow for ceilings to rise
back to MVFR levels for those sites. Otherwise, it will remain
overcast with ceilings around 500 to 1000 ft and some fog/mist at
times.  Can`t rule out a passing shower through the rest of the
night (mainly KPSF/KPOU).  Surface winds will be light and variable
at 5 kts or less.

After daybreak, KALB/KGFL should trend towards MVFR, with ceilings
around 2 kft.  There could be some passing showers in the mid to
late morning, but it should be dry most of the time and visibility
should improve for these sites, as a light north to northwest wind
around 5 kts should help keep widespread fog from forming.
Meanwhile, KPOU/KPSF will see light rain through the day on
Thursday, as a slow moving frontal boundary continues to push west
to east across the area.  This should keep flying conditions
generally IFR (mainly for ceilings) through the day, although there
could be some improvement back to MVFR by late in the day.  Light
northerly winds are expected for these sites as well.

For Thursday night, the boundary will be shifting eastward and rain
will be ending.  All sites should see MVFR ceilings around 2-3 kft.
There should be enough of a north to northwest breeze in place to
keep fog/mist from forming.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis


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