Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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880 FXUS62 KJAX 140003 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 803 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A messy and complex forecast through Tonight as a batch of convection associated with a shortwave impulse rides along a moisture/instability boundary lying near the the FL/GA state line. Light rain and isolated embedded storms ahead of the primary wave have already spread eastward along and north of I-10. Intensity and coverage of thunderstorms will increase through the rest of the afternoon along the I-75 corridor where instability will be more supportive. In that corridor, given robust deep and lower level shear the potential exists for isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible capable of strong wind gusts 40-60 mph, isolated tornadoes and small hail. Elsewhere surface-based instability will be at a premium and anticipate most of the precip to consist of light/moderate stratiform rain with embedded storms through the evening hours before activity shifts south and offshore between 10 pm and midnight. Overnight convection will take a break before the next round of what appears to be a more considerable squall line pushes across the Panhandle of FL and into the Suwannee Valley toward daybreak. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Active weather continues through Tuesday and Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward, followed by a cold front moving in from the northwest on Wednesday. Convective models are indicating an early start to convection Tuesday, with our western most counties seeing strong to isolated severe potential beginning just before sunrise. Storms will sweep eastward across NE FL and SE GA through the morning and early afternoon, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall being the primary hazards, although a tornado cannot be ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded most of NE FL/SE GA to a `Slight` risk (2/5) for severe weather Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will linger through the evening, as the front progresses southeastward overnight. By Wednesday morning, precipitation chances will be mainly limited to northeast Florida through sunset. Several rounds of heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms will create a risk for localized flooding issues, especially in urban areas and areas with poor drainage over the next few days. Gusty southwesterly winds and clearing skies behind the front will allow a warm-up in temperatures Wednesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s area-wide. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Drier air will temporarily be in place on Thursday as the cold front sits south of the area, ahead of the next system incoming this weekend. A warm front will lift northward on Friday, followed by another frontal boundary moving in from the northwest on Saturday, allowing for widespread scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Strong storm potential will be present, along with heavy rainfall causing localized flooding issues. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s each day during this period, with mild lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 803 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Complex forecast over the next 24 hours with multiple waves of thunderstorms, some severe. The first wave of rain and embedded storms will continue over the next few hours and should come to an end around 03-06z. Combination of rainfall and a lifting warm front tonight will lower ceilings to a low-MVFR and IFR. Winds will turn south-southwesterly to around 10 knots by 12Z. There is more uncertainty regarding the second round of storms on Tuesday which appears to accelerate across the area between 12-16z. Threats with the second round will be considerable winds potentially up to 50 knots, isolated tornadoes and small hail. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Enhancing east to southeast winds across the local waters will trend southerly tonight with small craft advisory conditions likely through Tuesday morning. Rain and embedded storms will pass over the waters this evening and through overnight hours while a warm front slowly lifts northeastward into the waters by daybreak. Another wave of strong to severe storms will develop and move eastward into the waters during the late morning hours Tuesday and be capable of considerable thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and waterspouts. Winds will trend lighter and offshore behind the warm front Tuesday morning. This will be followed by a slow moving cold front that will pass into the waters on Wednesday. Conditions begin to improve Thursday as an area of weak high pressure consolidates to the east. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA beaches, remaining moderate for SA GA Tuesday, but low for NE FL. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 From Monday to Wednesday, forecast storm total rainfall amounts are from 2 to 3 inches for southeast GA to about 1 to 2 inches for northeast FL. This may be enough to raise river levels a bit but for now no minor river flooding is forecast. The high- end potential total rain is over 5 inches in some locations, mainly favoring nrn half of the area, so we will need to monitor trends in the guidance for further updates to the forecast rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 67 82 70 87 / 80 70 60 20 SSI 70 82 72 87 / 90 70 50 30 JAX 69 86 70 90 / 90 70 70 40 SGJ 71 89 70 88 / 90 70 80 60 GNV 69 87 70 86 / 80 80 80 70 OCF 71 90 71 86 / 70 70 70 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$