587
FXUS64 KLCH 152036
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
336 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Beautiful today with plenty of sun, warm temps, and TDs in the
60s. That will change as we move into Thursday.

Thursday will see an increase in moisture advecting into the
region as ingredients come into place for another round of
showers/storms. First round develops and tracks across the region
late Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Heavy rain and the
potential for flash flooding is the main concern with an
additional secondary concern for severe weather.

Latest CAMs show iso/sct convection developing late afternoon,
before a QLCS tracks east across the area during the evening.
With the QLCS, winds will be the main threat, but large hail and
an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. HREF 50kt wind
probabilities show a reasonable chance for swaths of wind
damage/gusts with several areas registering upwards of 60kts. This
will need to be watched closely as the QLCS takes shape.

As the QLCS pushes east, there is the possibility some
backbuilding/training occurs across SETX and/or SW/South-central
LA. This is where the highest probability exists for greater than
5" and 8" of rain. In fact, resonable worst case scenerio (90%
Exceedence) from NBM is 6 to 9 inches. While anywhere could see
significant totals, the best chance is in these locations
mentioned earlier falling on already saturated ground and
swollen/flooding water ways.

Thereafter, additional rounds of more progressive line
segments/clusters of storms move across the region overnight into
Friday morning. As of now, the Flood Watch is in effect until 18Z
Friday, but it is possible an extension into Friday evening or
early Saturday morning is needed. There remains uncertainty if
another round forms and how strong/where it sets up. Current
thinking is more of SW/south-central LA into Acadiana seeing the
activity. This would lead to another round of severe weather with
all modes possible and renewed threat for flash flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Mid level ridging builds into the region this weekend with a
prolonged drying trend into at least early next week. Daytime
highs will generally be in the lower 90s each afternoon with TDs
in the upper 60s and lower 70s, which will push heat indices up a
few degrees.

Some uncertainty then enters the picture by mid week with a
frontal system attempting to dent the ridging a bit. Still plenty
of time to watch how this evolves as we move into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR today and into early tomorrow with increasing mid/upper level
cloudiness overnight. Low clouds increase tomorrow afternoon with
increasing chances for showers/storms. Best chance remains just
outside of current TAF forecast cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday into
Friday as another low pressure system approaches the area. Drier
conditions are expected thereafter through next week along with
light onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  87  65  85 /   0  40  90  50
LCH  70  84  70  85 /  10  80  70  40
LFT  68  89  73  87 /   0  40  70  50
BPT  70  85  72  86 /  10  80  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     LAZ027>033-044-045-141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...78