183
FXUS64 KLCH 130340
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1040 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Wx map showing weak surface high pressure over the Eastern U.S.
and broad surface low pressure trough over the Central Plains.
Slightly tighter pressure gradient between the two features
across the Northern Gulf of Mexico keeping southeast winds around
15-20 kts across the coastal waters, thus Small Craft Exercise
Caution continues. Further inland, southeast winds around 5-10 mph
along and south of the I-10 corridor, and 5 mph or less further
north.

Radar showing less activity than a few hours ago, with the
strongest thunderstorms and heaviest rainfall across Northeast
Texas and North Louisiana just outside our area. Intermittent
light to moderate showers continue to stream northward across our
region, and expected to continue for the remainder of the evening
and overnight hours. WPC has trimmed back the Moderate Excessive
Rainfall outlook further east, mostly out of Texas except near
Toledo Bend, but remains across Central Louisiana along and north
of U.S. 190. Ongoing forecast for chances of rainfall this evening
and overnight shows the eastward and diminishing trend, with a
little increase overnight over Central Louisiana.

08/DML

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are still moving through our northern
counties and parishes, some of which are severe.

With no further activity expected in the southern counties and
parishes, they have been removed from the tornado watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Strong/severe convection associated with advancing shortwave/sfc
warm front ongoing across the forecast area at this time and
expected to continue through the afternoon before gradually ending
with the passage of the shortwave later. In the interim, as the
storms appear to be weakening somewhat as they move ewd, not
anticipating expanding the ongoing tornado watch to include the
remainder of the forecast area. Thereafter, the remainder of the
night should be quiet with just some patchy fog likely with
copious low-level moisture in place.

Monday should see another round of strong/severe storms as yet
another disturbance sweeps through and interacts with our very
moist airmass. Forecast soundings indicate better severe potential
and thus the entire area has been highlighted in a slight risk. As
of now, WPC has shifted the moderate risk of excessive rain to
east of the Atchafalaya, although the entire CWA remains in a
slight risk. No changes to the going flood watch have been made
this afternoon.

Convection will end from west-to-east Monday night into Tuesday
morning as the mid-level trof/sfc frontal system push ewd across
the forecast area.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Dry weather is expected to start the period on Wednesday. Moisture
begins to return late Wednesday into Wednesday night as high
moves off to the east. As the next disturbance moves into the
region early Thursday the signals for heavy rainfall returns to
the region as PW`s get above 2 inches. While much of the area is
under the risk for very heavy rainfall most signals continue
across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana which have been hit
by multiple rounds of heavy rainfall the past month and half.
Precip then moves out of the area by Friday morning.

Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal norms through
Thursday then trend warmer than normal the remainder of the
period.

27/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

For 00z TAFS, starting out VFR to MVFR for southern sites as most
of the storms have passed now, and IFR is expected at times as
the thunderstorms pass through KAEX.

By the 02 to 04z range, expect patchy fog and lower ceilings to
develop due to all the rain seen today to warrant IFR forecasts
through the overnight hours. MVFR to VFR returns in the morning
Monday, before another round of thunderstorms is expected later in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Expanded the SCEC headlines to include Sabine/Calcasieu Lakes and
Vermilion Bay...otherwise no changes to inherited headlines with
this package.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  85  65  86 /  80  70  50  10
LCH  72  85  69  88 /  70  60  50  10
LFT  73  87  70  89 /  70  70  70  10
BPT  73  87  68  90 /  50  60  40   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ027>032.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...15