Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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308 FXUS64 KLCH 110201 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 901 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 858 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High level cloudiness will be moving across the forecast area tonight is the only type of clouds expected. Dewpoints are in the 60s so it should feel less humid with low temperatures a little closer to seasonal. Current forecast is on track and no changes at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows the cool front which passed the area earlier this morning now southeast of the forecast area, extending from an area of low pressure near KMOB to the nwrn Gulf. Meanwhile, high pressure centered over the Rockies/srn Plains was building sewd over the region, with obs showing a mainly nrly/nerly low-level flow. The airmass associated with the building high is definitely drier as dewpoints have dropped 10-15 degrees in 24 hours. Water vapor imagery shows the troffing associated with the sfc front and last night`s severe weather now well to our east with weak ridging building overhead and to our west. Regional 88Ds show a few showers/storms associated with an approaching disturbance still off to our west, but the drier air noted in this morning`s KLCH sounding was winning out as earlier activity never made it close to the area. The bulk of the short-term remains dry again this afternoon as the weak ridging aloft and encroaching sfc high pressure control our area weather through Saturday. Cooler temps are in store for tonight with lows back in the much more seasonal 60s for all but the immediate coastline. Despite highs again the 80s for Saturday, dewpoints in the 50s will make it feel much more pleasant. Rain chances return to the forecast on Sunday as a shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 2.0 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Sunday night. Although forecasted rainfall amounts during this period aren`t overly scary, given the antecedent conditions from the recent constant periods of (sometimes heavy) rainfall, WPC is highlighting all but the sern zones in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for day 3 (marginal risk for the sern zones). 25 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Trending into the long term starting at the beginning of the upcoming work week, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is present across the entire watch area Monday into Tuesday AM. Synoptically, a shortwave and associated precipitation will continue to progress from the central Plains toward the Ohio Valley with notable forcing along the cold front to realize thunderstorm activity across portions of SETX and SWLA. Then an all too familiar scenario of an unsettled wet pattern comes into mind yet again. Low level subsidence builds behind the front by Tuesday evening and persists with more zonal upper level flow aloft through early AM Thursday. Hereafter, the next system begins to take shape out west near the Four Corners region. Global models are split on the evolution of the shortwave, but more importantly, there is great disconnect from the deepening downstream surface low developing on the Plains late Thursday. Meanwhile, upstream flow higher aloft (around 250mb heights) detaches vertical continuity and amplifies the trough from the Great Lakes to California. Thus, while pops are reintroduced toward the end of the forecast period, confidence is not strong to detail any potential hazards when considering the number of variances among deterministic forecast guidance with the National Blend of Models. However, what is understood, are the signals for a continued opportunity to have precipitation enter SETX and SWLA toward the end of the work week once again. Kowalski/30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure at the surface will be moving across the forecast area during the period with mainly light northeast winds tonight becoming more easterly on Saturday. The easterly winds will be a little bit stronger and more gusty on Saturday for KBPT and KLCH. The northeast flow will bring in drier air in the low levels with just high level cloudiness moving overhead. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected during the period. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Inserting caution headlines for the wrn/cntl coastal waters for late tonight and part of tomorrow as nerly winds increase to criteria. Winds could briefly touch advisory criteria, but not sure for how long if it even happens. Winds are expected to shift serly and increase again on Sunday as the gradient over the nwrn Gulf tightens...SCA conditions are expected at that time. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 62 83 63 77 / 0 0 10 40 LCH 66 85 68 82 / 0 10 10 50 LFT 67 87 68 85 / 0 10 10 30 BPT 67 86 69 83 / 0 10 10 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...07