Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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654
FXUS65 KABQ 012119
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm system progressing east across the Great Basin will
move into the central Rockies Monday and push a Pacific cold
front across New Mexico during the afternoon and evening hours.
Windy conditions are forecast Monday both ahead of and behind the
cold front as it moves east over the state, with the potential
for wind advisory-type conditions across the northeast quarter. A
few showers or storms are possible along and ahead of the front,
but very little measurable rainfall is expected. Drier and cooler
conditions are forecast behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday as
daytime temperatures remain below normal across western portions
of the area. Breezy to locally windy conditions can be expected
both Tuesday and Wednesday as the jet stream remains positioned over
northern New Mexico. Another cold front will push south across the
state Thursday, helping to keep temperatures at or slightly below
normal through the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry air is working over New Mexico, but is slow to mix into the
lower boundary layer this afternoon. That said, surface dewpoint
24hr change values are -5 to -10 relative to yesterday across
central and western New Mexico. Isolated showers and storms
over eastern New Mexico are having a hard time sustaining updrafts
this afternoon given limited instability and dry air entrainment.
A shortwave ridge will shift slowly east over the state tonight
into Sunday and give way to increasing west-southwest flow aloft
ahead of a potent upper low, currently offshore of the Pacific NW.
Sunday will be the warmest day of the forecast period, with highs
above normal areawide and plenty of sunshine.

The 12z GFS and ECMWF are finally in good agreement with the
progression and position of the upper low through Tuesday and the
trailing trough on Thursday. Model QPF has trended less and less
with each model run, so am not anticipating much in the way of
measurable precipitation ahead of the Pacific front Monday,
although strong west-southwest flow would favor Chama and
surrounding terrain for orographically forced precip. The best
instability and moisture will be over our southern zones Monday,
so if thunderstorms break-out then locales such as Socorro,
Ruidoso, Roswell, Portales and Clovis might be impacted. All that
said, winds will be the big weather story Monday as the polar and
subtropical jets phase over the state and a deep lee side trough
develops. Our wind speed forecast has trended up from the previous
forecast cycle and wind advisories look like a good bet for the
northeast quarter or so of the state Monday afternoon/evening.
Windy conditions are forecast elsewhere both ahead of and behind
the Pacific front as it progresses east across the area into
Monday evening.

Cooler conditions will move in behind the front and keep
temperatures across western New Mexico below normal through
Wednesday. The polar jet will remain over southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico through mid week, resulting in breezy to
locally windy conditions during the afternoon and evening hours
with at least some potential for mountain wave activity,
especially to the lee of the Sangre De Cristos.

The trailing trough on Thursday has trended deeper/colder and is
looking to pack a punch. The trough will push another cold front
through and the backdoor segment is looking stronger Thursday
night with some precipitation possible between the northern
Mountains and the Texas border. Our high temperature forecast for
Thursday and Friday across the eastern plains may be a bit
optimistic given the magnitude of the cold air advection being
output by both the GFS and ECMWF.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not a log of big changes made to the gridded forecast. Increased
wind speeds above model guidance for the earlier two thirds of next
week, especially afternoon hours, due to the Pacific trough/jet
stream presence.

Upper ridge currently found over the state will begin to break down
later Sunday but especially Sunday night into Monday as a deep
trough of low pressure moves inland. Stronger wind flows will be the
main result but also look for cooler temperatures and higher
humidity, especially across the east. Moisture will flow
northward ahead of the Pacific trough and provide some showers and
thunderstorms favoring the mountains on Monday. Ventilation will
also improve areawide. Localized strong wind and low humidity
conditions show up in the gridded forecast for the Chuska mountain
area during the afternoon.

The localized critical conditions in terms of strong wind and low
humidity shift eastward over the east central plains on Tuesday.
Haines values are 5 and 6 across the northeast plains during this
period.

The Pacific trough will see some reinforcing energy over the
northern/central Rockies Wednesday. This means continued higher wind
speeds and cooler than average temperatures most areas except for SE
and EC areas due to downslope effects. Local strong wind and low RH
conditions show up again across portions of the EC plains. Haines
values look to be pretty low across that area however. Ventilation
will remain pretty good except for potentially the NE plains due to
a wind shift and moisture push from the east/southeast.

The operational GFS/ECMWF models are fairly similar on Thursday as a
cold front pushes in from the north. At this time, precipitation
would be relegated to the northern tier of the forecast
area, primarily the NC mtns and NE plains/highlands. Will be
monitoring that trend. Residual NW breeziness would be found along
a line from Farmington to Clines Corners with a distinct and
cooler wind shift across portions of the eastern plains. Obviously
timing of the front could change.

Both GFS and ECMWF show some sort of ridging and a warming/drying
trend late week into the earlier portion of the following weekend.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will occur at the terminal sites during the next 24
hrs. There is a slight possibility of some low cigs sneaking up
from the south impacting far SE areas late tonight. Will be
monitoring that trend in low level moistening. Otherwise...a few
spot SH/TS will impact the SW and SC mtns this aft to early eve.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  77  53  71 /   5   5  20  10
Dulce...........................  42  75  48  69 /  10  10  30  30
Cuba............................  43  74  47  68 /   5  10  20  20
Gallup..........................  41  75  48  70 /   5   5  20  20
El Morro........................  38  72  45  68 /   5   5  20  20
Grants..........................  43  75  47  73 /   5   5  20  20
Quemado.........................  46  73  49  72 /  10   5  20  20
Glenwood........................  53  80  54  78 /   0   5  20  20
Chama...........................  37  72  44  65 /  10  10  30  40
Los Alamos......................  50  73  50  71 /   5   5  10  20
Pecos...........................  46  73  48  70 /   5   5   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  41  73  44  69 /   5   5   5  10
Red River.......................  33  63  40  59 /  10   5   5  10
Angel Fire......................  28  66  39  62 /  10   5   5  10
Taos............................  38  75  44  71 /   5   5   5  10
Mora............................  44  72  46  69 /   0   5   5  20
Espanola........................  48  78  49  74 /   0   5  10  20
Santa Fe........................  48  74  51  72 /   0   5   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  47  78  49  76 /   0   5   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  79  56  77 /   5   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  80  57  78 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  82  53  81 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  80  55  79 /   0   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  51  83  54  81 /   0   5  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  53  80  54  79 /   0   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  54  85  55  84 /   0   5  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  74  50  71 /   0   5  10  20
Tijeras.........................  51  75  51  74 /   0   5  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  77  47  75 /   0   5   5  20
Clines Corners..................  48  76  51  74 /   0   5   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  52  77  52  75 /   0   5   5  30
Carrizozo.......................  54  82  55  79 /   5   5   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  50  75  52  73 /  20  20   5  30
Capulin.........................  46  77  52  76 /   5   5   5  10
Raton...........................  44  79  47  78 /   0   5   5  10
Springer........................  46  80  48  79 /   0   5   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  43  79  48  74 /   0   5   5  10
Clayton.........................  51  83  54  82 /   5   5   5   5
Roy.............................  48  79  51  78 /   0   5   5  10
Conchas.........................  52  85  57  84 /   0   5   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  53  87  56  83 /   0   5   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  52  90  59  88 /   0   5   5  20
Clovis..........................  54  84  55  84 /   0   5   5  20
Portales........................  56  84  56  85 /   0   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  54  85  55  84 /   0   5   5  20
Roswell.........................  53  87  57  87 /   0   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  52  82  54  82 /  10  10   5  20
Elk.............................  50  78  53  77 /  20  20   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

11



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