Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 281147 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
Sheets of high clouds will continue to cross today into tonight.
Some mid level cloudiness should also spread across western areas
this afternoon into tonight. Additionally, a lee trough on the
eastern plains should cause southwest winds to become breezy this
afternoon despite the clouds.
.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016...
Thick high clouds will spread over New Mexico today and make it feel
a bit cooler. Temperatures will however manage to be up to 15 degrees
above normal. Winds will increase over the weekend as a lee trough
deepens over eastern New Mexico. This will raise temperatures well
into the 80s over the plains with overnight lows only falling into
the 50s. Monday will be the windiest day as a fast moving upper
wave shifts across Colorado. Clouds will begin to thicken Tuesday
ahead of a potential storm system for Wednesday or Thursday. This
will cool temperatures down closer to normal and increase chances
for showers and storms.
00Z soundings and water vapor loop confirm thick high cloud cover
above 300mb spreading northeast across much of the southwest CONUS.
Surface dewpoints generally in the 30s and 40s across NM along with
a deepening lee trough across the plains is resulting in well above
normal overnight temps. Many areas are still in the 50s and 60s at
3am! These warm morning temps will help force max temps well above
normal, despite the thick cloud cover streaming over the state.
The 3rd weekend in a row of near record temps is on tap as skies
clear with faster, dry southwest flow aloft and lee troughing over
eastern NM. Tucumcari will edge 90F which is very close to record
territory. The ABQ metro area will also be very warm with readings
near 80F both Saturday and Sunday. This will likely squeeze October
2016 into the 2nd warmest on record after 1950. A fast moving upper
wave will shift through Colorado Monday and generate the windiest
day of the forecast period for NM. Otherwise, much of the same is
expected with well above normal temps.
Potential changes are on the horizon beginning Tuesday as a trough
axis approaching the west coast runs into a strengthening, blocking
high developing over the plains states. Several operational models
and associated ensembles develop a closed upper low near the Great
Basin Wednesday, but then have a difficult time with it`s evolution
as a weakly forced, complex upper pattern evolves Thursday to Friday.
Nonetheless, thicker cloud cover is expected to increase over NM
Tuesday and allow for a slight cool down. A back door cold front
will attempt to shift southwest across the plains and into the RGV
late Wednesday. Precip chances will be on the increase but forecast
confidence is very low at this time. This brings us to November 4th
with no low temp forecast less than 40F at the ABQ Sunport, which is
getting very close to the record latest date of November 7, 1987.
Wetting precipitation looks unlikely until Wednesday or Wednesday
night as a series of upper level troughs pass north of NM.
Temperatures will continue to vary around 8 to 18 degrees above
normal each day/night through Monday, then highs should moderate
some Tuesday into the middle of the coming week.
A ridge of high pressure will continue shifting southeast of NM
today as an upper level trough crossing the Great Basin clips the
Four Corners. A persistent lee trough will induce breezy conditions
across east central and northeast areas this afternoon. With the
upper trough passing NW of NM today, then eastward across the
central Rockies Saturday, an improving ventilation trend is
generally expected both days. A weak Pacific cool front will shift
eastward across the state tonight and Saturday inducing only a few
degrees of cooling across northern and western areas.
A more significant upper level trough will pass north of NM Sunday
and Sunday night with stronger winds aloft and a pronounced lee
trough that should result in a gustier day on Sunday, and possibly
into Monday as directions shift from southwesterly to westerly. Some
of the strongest winds may occur Sunday night in the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains, where there will be a risk of a moderate mountain
wave. Ventilation now looks to remain good or better Sunday and
Monday, except for a pocket of poor readings near the Four Corners
GFS and ECMWF are both struggling to define an upper level low or
trough that will approach NM from the west Tuesday into Wednesday.
Models start to break out low QPF precip across western areas
Tuesday night as another trough crossing the central Rockies sends a
dry back door cool front into the plains. Then a moist, low-level
return flow will develop out of the southeast Wednesday and
Wednesday night, probably increasing the coverage and intensity of
precipitation. Current model runs are at odds on how well defined
the upper level system will become and how progressively it will
move, so its a bit early to say what areas will be favored for
wetting rain Wednesday into Thursday.