Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 241056 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Occasional w-nwly wind gusts to 35kt along the central mt chain and
adjacent highlands as a surface low pressure deepens over ne/east
central NM and the TX panhandle. Northwest flow aloft with occasional
high clouds. VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION...251 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017...
The warm and dry streak continues. If no precipitation falls today in
Albuquerque, today will mark the 50th consecutive day without
measurable precipitation, and not much is in sight. High
temperatures today will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal, and despite
a front moving southward across the plains tonight, high
temperatures will remain above normal for Saturday. This warmth will
continue through Monday before a storm system crosses northern New
Mexico on Tuesday. This system may bring light snow to the northern
mountains, strong winds to most other areas, and colder temperatures
area wide. Most areas will see near to slightly above normal
temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week.


Another day with well above normal temperatures is in store. A wave
crossing the northern Rockies will flatten the Baja ridge over NM,
allowing a lee side surface trough to strengthen. Downslope winds
will aid in temperatures jumping another 5 to 10 degrees above
yesterdays readings across the east. In other words, high
temperatures in this area will be upwards of 25 degrees above
normal. The surface low will slide southward by late afternoon,
dragging a weak boundary/back door front into northeast NM.
Meanwhile, across central and western NM, temperatures will be
similar to, if not a degree or two warmer, than yesterday.  Records
will be in jeopardy across much of the area.

The back door front will slide southward through the plains tonight
and temperatures on Saturday will cool on the order of 15 degrees
across the plains, though temperatures will still be above normal.
Not much change across the west, thus records will be in jeopardy
once again.

The above normal temperature streak will continue Sunday and Monday
as the upper level ridge axis moves over NM on Sunday, then as the
ridge breaks down and westerly winds increase on Monday. Expect
breezy to windy west to southwest winds areawide Monday afternoon.

All eyes are then on the approaching storm system. Both the GFS and
ECMWF close off the system and shift it eastward along the NM/CO
border on Tuesday, though the GFS remains a bit faster than the
ECMWF.  GFS is a bit more bullish with QPF than the ECMWF across the
northern mountains. Have stayed relatively conservative with PoPs
since the ECMWF looks to have trended a bit lighter on QPF.
Regardless of precip, temperatures will get colder with this system.
A Pacific front will race from west to east, with strong winds along
and behind it, before a back door front slides down the plains later
that day. High temperatures Tuesday will fall 10 to 25 degrees,
though even with this significant cool down, highs should still be
at or just above normal. After the winds subside, Tuesday nights
temps should be at or below freezing area wide.

The cooler, though still slightly above normal, temperatures will
continue Wednesday through the end of the week thanks to another
front that moves across NM on Thursday.



High pressure aloft will continue to be the dominant weather feature
through Sunday. Ventilation rates today will be good over the higher
terrain but only fair to poor at the lower elevations. Widespread
poor rates are forecast Saturday and Sunday. Near record to record
high temperatures are likely today over the east and at a few spots
west of the Continental Divide. A cold front pushing southward
through the eastern plains tonight will cool temperatures there on
Saturday but overall highs will remain above average. The northwest
and west central as well as the Middle Rio Grande Valley could
experience a few near record to record highs Saturday. Temperatures
rebound in the east Sunday, and will be approximately 15 to 20
degrees above average area wide.

Gusty winds this afternoon along the central mountain chain, Central
Highlands and Guadalupe county will combine with sub 15 percent
humidities to result in spotty/localized critical fire weather
conditions for a brief period this afternoon.

Models remain consistent with a cold front Tuesday, although both
the ECMWF and GFS now develop a closed upper low which tracks
farther south over New Mexico. Given the current forecast path,
light precipitation looks possible over the northern third of the
state Tuesday, which tapers off over the northeast Tuesday night. The
more southerly track affects the westerly wind forecast for
Monday/Tuesday, and gridded wind forecast for Monday/Monday night is
slightly lower than 24 hours ago. However, the wind remains strong
enough to combine with sub 15 percent humidities and high
temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average to produce widespread
critical fire weather conditions over northeast New Mexico Monday
afternoon, as well as for a couple of hours of localized critical
conditions west of the Continental Divide. Given the models haven`t
settled on a consistent path and strength of the upper system,
changes in the potential for critical conditions could be likely with
future model runs. Vent rates Monday are forecast to be good over
the higher terrain and portions of the eastern plains but poor at the
lower elevations central and west.

Look for gusty northerly winds over the east Tuesday afternoon with
significant cooling, to within a few degrees of normal for the end
of November. Temperatures rebound Wednesday, and there is general
model agreement another system could cross the northeast third of
the state Wednesday night/Thursday with more wind and cooler air but
little to no precipitation.




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