Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
MIDDLE BAY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND THEN
NE NC. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH HAVE OCCURRED WITH
THE FRONT THOUGH THESE GUSTS HAVE BEEN BRIEF AND ONLY RECORDED AT
A FEW STATIONS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
OVER WEST VA AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN VA CONTINUES TO DIVE SE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL IN TURN
ALLOW A CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE
PUSHING ACROSS THE BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WAVE ARE ALSO MOVING ACROSS THE TIDEWATER
INTO HAMPTON ROADS AND ACROSS NE NC. RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
VA HAS DECREASED AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL VA FOR THE NEST SEVERAL HOURS. THE BEST FORCING FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST. SOME HI RES WRF RUNS
AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL VA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGERING INTO MID MORNING.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS FOR WED MORNING INCREASING CHC POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL VA THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 40S...TO
LOW/MID 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE WED. AFTER A BRIEF
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PIEDMONT AND
THE THE COAST. THE ERN SHORE IN PARTICULAR APPEARS TO BE SET FOR
A CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. GIVEN RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE PULLED THE CHC POPS FURTHER WEST WED MORNING TO COVER CENTRAL
VA. BELIEVE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE UPPER LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
LIMITED TO THE TO THE EASTERN VA WITH LIKELY 60-70% POPS ON THE
EASTERN SHORE. FAVOR COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WED...MID
60S SW TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NE. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE WILL BE
THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES FAIRLY
RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE WED NIGHT INTO THU...LOCATING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z FRIDAY. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER CHANCES
BY THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SHORE (20%). DECREASING
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. COOL AGAIN THU WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60-65.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW
OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN
SHORE...15-25 MPH ELSEWHERE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND MILDER
TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPORARILY. MWS ISSUED FOR BRIEF
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CHESAPEAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
VIRGINIA RIVERS. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
WITH LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS
     BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST WIND IS
GENERALLY 20-25KT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY
THE 21/12Z NAM. AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT SCA WAS MAINTAINED GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS...WITH AN ONSET
GENERALLY AT OR BEYOND 24HR FROM 4PM TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN. WITH THE
FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FROM THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED
AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
10-15KT AND SEAS SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/JAO
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ/LSA






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