Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310829
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
429 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNG...COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THRU NE NC WITH SCTD
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVR SE VA INTO
NE NC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND OFF THE CST DURING TODAY...WITH
HI PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FM THE WNW. THE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LWR (MORE COMFORTABLE) ACRS JUST ABT THE ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT
FAR SE VA AND NE NC...WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP
OVR THESE COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENG. HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID 80S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR DRY WX AND A MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO INCREASE A LITTLE
ON SAT. LOWS TNGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. HIGHS ON SAT IN THE LWR
90S...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 80S AT THE CST.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW SHOWN TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA SAT AFTN INTO
SUN MORNG. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN
MUSTER UP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS NOT ALL THAT
CONVINCED THAT IT WILL. MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
SAT NGT IN THE 60S TO LWR 70S. REMAINING DRY MOST PLACES ON
SUN...AS HI PRES REBOUNDS. THERE`S A MAINLY SLGT (20%) CHC OF
ISLTD SHOWERS ACRS THE FAR SE WITH A WEAK CSTL BOUNDARY STILL IN
PLACE. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S...EXCEPT MID 80S
AT THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW
CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP INTO TUE...BUT THEN
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WED/THU...THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING MUCH
STRONGER/PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE
ECMWF (OR THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS). TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID
80S/AROUND 90 F ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND. GENLY
LOOKS DRY ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A 20-30% POP IN NE NC DUE TO
POTENTIAL SEABREEZE. FOR TUE-WED...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN HOT WX FOR
TUE...AS BOTH MODELS HAVE RISING H8 TEMPS AND A W/SW FLOW IN LOW
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A 20% POP DUE MAINLY TO A WEAK CAP WITH H5
HEIGHTS ONLY 585-588 DM. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
90-95 F AT THE COAST. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR WED/THU...GFS WOULD
SUGGEST MUCH COOLER CONDS...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO PERHAPS 100 F. WHILE THE ECMWF/WPC PATTERN WILL
GENLY BE FAVORED (COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THU AFTN)...THINK
THE DRIER/HOTTER WX WILL ULTIMATELY NOT BE AS HOT AS PREDICTED DUE
TO ANTECEDENT WET/HUMID CONDITIONS OF THE PAST MONTH. FOR NOW WILL
SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING WITH HIGHS WED 90-95 F AND THU UPPER 80S TO
LWR 90S. DEW PTS ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW
60S WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENLY STAYED A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THIS...MID 60S WEST TO LWR 70S EAST. FOR NOW THIS YIELDS HEAT
INDICES STAYING BELOW 105 F NEXT WEEK. AS FOR POPS...WILL ONLY
HAVE ~20% POPS WED...RISING TO 30% MOST AREAS THU W/ THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE N.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE
RE-DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENINSULA FROM PHF TOWARD ORF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE SHORT LIVED, BUT WE ARE NOTING PERIODS OF MVFR
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS SHORT LIVED
CIG RESTRICTION IN THE TAF. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH PHF/ORF BY 08-10Z AND ECG BY ~12Z. MOS HAS
MVFR VSBYS AT SBY THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT, CLEARING BY AROUND/JUST
AFTER DAWN AND WITH HI RES MODELS IN AGREEMENT, HAVE GONE IN THIS
DIRECTION WITH THE TAF. N/NW WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
W/ A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS SATURDAY. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS IS IN
THE FCST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SERN PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AS
LATEST OBS SHOW W-NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS, WITH W-SW
WINDS PERSISTING OVER SOUTHERN WATERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS
OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS BECOME NNW BY MID-MORNING AS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SLOWLY E-NE OF THE VA/NC COAST
TODAY DRAGGING SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA BY
MIDDAY. FRONT WEAKENS JUST SSE OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WON`T TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO YIELD WIDESPREAD
SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET ~15 KT WINDS THIS
MORNING WITH SFC WATER TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 80 F OVER THE LWR
BAY/RIVERS. COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL CARRY PREDOMINATE 15 KT
WINDS IN THE BAY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS
WORTH OF GUSTS TO 20 KT. THIS LIKELY WON`T BE LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBS AND ISSUE A
STATEMENT FOR THE BAY IF NEEDED. WAVES 1-2FT ATTM INCREASE TO 2-3 FT
BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. SEAS
AVG 3-4 FT N AND 2-3 FT S. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNE MIDDAY...BECOMING
E TONIGHT. WINDS THEN TURN BACK TO THE SSW FOR TNGT AND SAT...AND
REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 10 KT) AS THE FRONT WEAKENS JUST TO OUR SSE ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST.

WINDS BRIEFLY VEER OFFSHORE (W-NW) EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BACK TO THE
E-SE SUN AFTN/EVE...AND SSW MON/TUE, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WAVES SAT INTO NEXT WEEK AVG 1-2
FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH QUICKER
FRONTAL TIMING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WATERS/EASTERN SHORE. WATER
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD TODAY AS FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOMALIES MAY RISE AGAIN WITH EVENING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON SLY (CHANNELING) FLOW UP THE BAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT. AS WITH YESTERDAY, TIDAL ANOMALIES LOOKING
TO BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL AT BISHOPS HEAD/CAMBRIDGE COULD YIELD SOME SPOTTY
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ


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