Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 121203

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
703 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

A low pressure system will move east from the Great Lakes
region into the Northeast states today. The associated strong
cold front will push across the region from midday through mid-
afternoon. Expect markedly colder air across the region then
for Tonight and Wednesday, with temperatures moderating for
late week into next weekend.


Latest wx analysis features strong upper level trough digging
southeast from the western Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Surface low is pushing across E OH/W PA early this morning,
with the associated surface front extending SW into the Mid-
South and lower Mississippi River Valley.

Front still on track to cross the local area from late morning
into the mid-afternoon hours today. Pre-frontal SW flow will
get temperatures off to a mild start, with stable to slowly
falling temperatures by afternoon. Highs into the mid- upper
50s SE to the upper 40s NW. Turning blustery and dry late in the
day from NW to SE. Wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph by mid to late
afternoon, gusting to 25 to 35 mph tonight.

Becoming clear, blustery and cold tonight. Lows in the teens to
low 20s most areas...mid 20s to near 30 along the SE coast. Wind
chills in the upper single digits (mainly north) to teens


Short term period will feature below normal temps on avg with a
couple small chances for pcpn as a couple of clipper systems
traverse the region.

Dry conditions continue into Wed, as weak sfc high pressure
slides south of the area. Expect wind chill values in the 20s
through the day, with winds gusting up to 20-30 mph and high
temps only in the low to mid 30s most spots...15-20 degrees
below normal.

Next chance of (light) pcpn arrives Wed night with an
approaching clipper system. Emerging model consensus is that
most of the moisture is north of the region, with low-levels
quite dry. Still, potential for a brief period of flurries or
snow showers is there, so have introduced a 20% of snow showers
everywhere for Wed night into Thu morning. Quick clearing behind
this system into Thu, with a dry day then expected for Thu.
Temps moderate then into Thu with highs in the 40s under a
partly cloudy sky.


Next clipper system approaches from the WNW Thu night. Models
coming into better alignment with slowing this feature down
slightly, then crosses the local area Fri aftn/night as weak
sfc lo pres passes just S and E. 00Z/12 GFS and ECMWF both
suggest there is a potential for wintry pcpn on Fri (esp N and
NW sections)...maintaining cold air across the region. During
the weekend...upper level flow relaxes allowing for moderation
into early next week.

Lows Thu night from the m20s NW to the m30s at the coast in SE
VA-NE NC. Highs Fri from the m30s NW to around 50F in far SE
VA-NE NC. Lows Fri night from the m-u20s inland to 30-35F at the
immediate coast. Highs Sat in the l-m40s. Lows Sat night in the
l-m30s. Highs Sun in the l-m50s. Lows Sun night in the 30s to
l40s. Highs Mon in the l-m50s.


VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period but clouds
will increase across the region from later this morning through
this afternoon/evening. Light SE-SW wind will prevail early
this morning but increase by 15-18z, as a strong cold front
approaches the Mid Atlantic region. SW winds shift to W then NW
as the front slides through the area Tue, with gusts up to 20-30
kt at times Tue aftn. Cloud ceilings will lower to around 3.5kft
to 5 kft AGL as the front moves across the area and eventually
offshore by mid to late afternoon.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to prevail for much of the week


An extended period of elevated winds are expected through at least
Wednesday night as a strong CAA surge occurs behind an arctic cold
front late today into Wednesday. Pressure gradient tightens ahead of
the approaching cold front this morning into the afternoon allowing
for SCA conditions all waters initially. Gale conditions should
begin around sunset and last into Wed afternoon (save the
York/Rappahannock/upr James Rivers where SCAs will remain). With
gale conditions beginning within 24 hrs will go ahead and initiate
gale warnings as of 4 am. Again, SCAs conditions expected much of
today with Gale conditions by this evening into Wed. Gusts will
reach as high as 40 kt coastal waters and lower Bay. Waves 4-5 ft
Bay; seas 5-7 ocean.

Conditions improve on Thursday, then next system progged to cross
the region late in the week.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ630>634-638-650-


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