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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 112056
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 PM EST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. TWO
DRY COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVES OFF THE
COAST FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES LOCATED INVOF COASTAL NC THIS AFTN WILL SLOLY DRIFT
OFF THE CST THROUGH THIS EVE. A POLAR CDFNT MOVING THROUGH THE OH
VLY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC FNT FM THE WRN LAKES TO NE KS
THIS AFTN. THE INITIAL POLAR FNT WILL CROSS THE FA AFT MDNGT...W/
THE ARCTIC BNDRY FOLLOWING (THU MRNG). PATCHY MNLY HI LVL CLDNS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FNTL PASSAGES. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL OFF
(THE USUAL ERY EVE DROP)...REACHING LOWS IN THE M/U20S INLAND AND
U20S TO L30S AT THE CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC BNDRY TO QUICKLY WISK ACRS THE FA THU MRNG. POST FROPA...A
SURGE IN NNW WNDS (GUSTING TO 20-25 KT) AND A SHARP DROP IN DEWPTS
(THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS). OTR THAN A FEW PATCHY MNLY HI LVL
CLDS...MNLY SUNNY CONDS XPCD ON THU. HI TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE
30SM IN MD/VA...TO THE ARND 40F ACRS NE NC.

MDT SFC HI PRES FM THE W REACHES THE FA LT THU NGT/ERY FRI. YET
ANOTHER FNTL BNDRY WILL BECOME DRAPED E-W N OF THE FA ON
FRI...MAKING VERY LMTD PROGRESS S THROUGH FRI NGT. A COLD NGT THU
NGT UNDER SKC...THEN MNLY SUNNY (DESPITE SOME INCRS IN HI LVL
CLDNS IN THE AFTN) AGN ON FRI AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE.
LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE UPR TEENS/L20S INLAND...TO M/U20S AT THE
CST. HI TEMPS FRI RANGING THROUGH THE 40S (L/M40S N...M/U40S S).

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GATHER/SPREAD N THROUGH THE TN INTO THE OH
VLYS FRI NGT AS LO PRES ORGANIZES OVR THE LWR MS VLY. NO
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR XPCD FRI NGT/ERY SAT AHD OF THAT SYS
AS WLY FLO ALOFT FROM THE LAKES RGN THROUGH NEW ENG PREVENTS A
PUSH SWD. TIMING DIFFERENCES (ALBEIT SUBTLE) EXIST IN THE MDLS FOR
THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN LT FRI NGT/SAT. ACCORDING MDL TSECTIONS...DP
LYRD SW FLO TO RESULT IN CONTD WARMING ABV THE SFC AHD OF THAT
AREA OF LO PRES APPROACHING FM THE SW. THE 12Z/11 GFS IS ABT 3-6
HRS QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF COMBO W/ ARRIVAL OF PCPN. WILL HOLD
OFF ON MOST PCPN ACRS THE FA FOR THE MIDDAY HRS THROUGH THE AFTN.
FOR FAR WRN COUNTIES...WILL INCLUDE CHC MIXED FZRA/PL ERY SAT
MRNG. LO TEMPS FRI NGT MNLY 30 TO 35F. TRIMMED HI TEMPS ACRS MUCH
OF THE FA...(CLOSER TO COMBO GFS/ECMWF)...W/ U30S/L40S NW TO
U40S/L50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. P-TYPE IS NOT REALLY IN QUESTION ATTM WITH PLAIN RAIN
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WHAT IS IN QUESTION IS JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND ENDS PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF LINGERS RAIN INTO SUNDAY AFTN. PLAYED THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WRT TIMING...AND LINGERED CHC POPS THROUGH 18Z
SUN. DRY WX RETURNS TO START NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 40S TO
LOW 50S. COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRES WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THIS AFTN THRU FRI...PROVIDING DRY
WX AND VFR CONDITIONS. LGT SW WINDS (ARND 5 KTS OR LESS) THIS
AFTN/EVENG...WILL BECOME NW OR N 10 TO 15 KT ((POSSIBLY GUSTY)
DURING THU MORNG...AS STRONGER HI PRES AREA BLDS IN FM THE WNW.

OUTLOOK...LWR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SAT INTO EARLY SUN MORNG...AS
LO PRES AND ASSOC COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BACKING THE WINDS TO THE
SW. THEN...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST CAA WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NW 15
TO 25 KT OVER THE BAY AND 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. HAVE ADDED THE COASTAL WATERS/RIVERS/SOUND
TO THE SCA BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO 3-4
FT ON THE BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY REACH 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
THURS NIGHT-FRI. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DOX RADAR IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...JDM
EQUIPMENT...AKQ