Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290538
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LAST OF THE S/W ENERGY (IN THE FORM OF A SCT-BKN AC DECK) WILL
CROSS THE CHES BAY / ERN SHORE AREAS NEXT FEW HRS. KEPT IT DRY
GIVEN DP TMPS DROPPING THRU THE TEENS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY STILL
PSBL ACROSS THE ERN SHORE NEXT HR OR SO. OTW...SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. JANUARY LIKE READINGS BY MORNING
AS WINDS DECOUPLE WEST OF THE BAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADITIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE L-M20S...XCPT U20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. THESE READINGS XPCTD TO FALL JUST SHORT OF THE
RECORD LOWS FOR 3/29. SEE CLI SECTION BLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
DAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%)
WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL
LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE
REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S
W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING
SPLIT FLOW COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS NOW WITH A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NRN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE TUES NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN VA/MD TUES NIGHT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY WEDS MORNING. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NE ZONES LATE TUES NIGHT CLOSEST TO BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT. SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT PUSH WELL OFFSHORE WEDS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE REGION. MODEST CAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S INLAND AND MID-UPPER
50S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDS
NIGHT-THURS AS A SRN STREAM WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
TN VALLEY. MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THANKS TO INCREASING S-SE FLOW.
28/12Z ECMWF QUICKER WITH BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION THURS
AFTERNOON. HAVE DROPPED POPS THURS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SSW FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS
THURS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...CHANCE FOR PRECIP RAMP UP THURS NIGHT-FRI AS THE SRN
STREAM WAVE LIFTS OVER THE REGION. NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST ALSO PROGGED TO FLATTEN AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC LOW LOCATES
OVER SERN CANADA THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THRU SAT
MORNING. SLIGHT WARMER FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND
LOW-MID 60S COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY. NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING WELL OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST. ONGOING CAA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG NW WINDS OF 15-25
KT OVER THE WATER. WAVES AVG 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA.
WAVES REMAIN 2-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SW OF THE
WATER EARLY SUN...WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 15 KT BY MID
MORNING. SEAS SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OF THE WATER SUN AFTERNOON...WITH FLOW BECOMING SLY AOB 10
KT LATE SUN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MON
NIGHT...CROSSING THE WATER LATE MON-EARLY MON NIGHT. PREFRONTAL
SLY SURGE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KT IN
THE BAY AND 20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS INDICATE SCA
CONDITIONS...BUT BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...EXPECT A SHARP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE
WATER. HAVE CAPPED SPEEDS BELOW SCA ATTM. SLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS
TO 5 FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS MON MORNING. SWLY FLOW RETURNS
MON NIGHT- TUES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE TUES WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE WATER EARLY WEDS
NIGHT. WINDS STAY AOB 15 KT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDS-THURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAO
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...MAS/DAP/LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...


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