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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 192001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS MARYLAND ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A RATHER DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES FROM KENTUCKY TO THE
CAROLINAS. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SMALL
RIDGE WAS IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
STATES CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE. A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER TOWARD MID WEEK.

THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL RATHER DIFFUSE. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
IT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ON MONDAY.

A VORT LOBE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A BAND OF TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. THIS
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH 04Z. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AND KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND ON THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE FOG
SHOULD MAINLY DEVELOP FROM LOWERING STRATUS.

LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE THROUGH THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISSIPATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY MOVING RATHER SLOWLY. HAVE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES EAST TO NEAR THE CHOWAN RIVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH READINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
HIGHEST POPS (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AT 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPR 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH POPS. WITH NO
STRONG TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION OR INDICATIONS OF WHERE CONVECTION
WILL FOCUS...KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WED NGT WITH A CHC FOR RAIN...MAINLY
WEST OF I-95...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRNT. S/SW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPR 60S. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THU/THU NGT WITH STILL A
30-40% CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER
FORCING IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO A LACK OF WAA AND MOST S/W
ENERGY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPEED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRNT...WITH THE FROPA NOW EXPECTED TO BE SOMETIME
LATE THU/THU NGT. HIGHS THU IN THE LO TO MID 80S. BEHIND THE FRNT FRI
INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING CHCS FOR RAIN AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS
(BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL NORMS) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM ECG TO ORF AND SOUTH OF RIC. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT RIC INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH AFTER 19Z. AT ORF CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
UNTIL HEAVIER SHOWERS REACH THE AIRPORT AROUND 19Z REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN TEMPORARILY IFR. NELY FLOW AT ORF IS DUE
TO A WEAK BAY BREEZE AND WILL BECOME SLY THIS EVENING. JUST TO THE
NORTH PHF HAS BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE AND WILL REMAIN MVFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SBY HAS CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS BUT
THIS WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF A
FEW STRAY SHOWERS HERE AND THERE. DESPITE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPING CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CONTINUES BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND FOG TO
RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. THESE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING IMPROVING SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MORE COVERAGE OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SE FLOW PREVAILS TNGT AS A WARM FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HIRES
MODELS SHOW A QUICK SHOT OF SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY LATER THIS
AFTN/EVENG...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF OR LONG LASTING ENUF TO ISSUE A
SCA HEADLINE FOR THIS ATTM. WINDS STAY GENRLY 10-15 KT OVRNGT AND
SHIFT FROM SE TO S. SEAS WILL APPROACH 4-5 FT OUT 20 NM OVER COASTAL
WATERS...WITH BEST CHC FOR 5+ FT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO ZONES WHERE
SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. 12Z WAVEWATCH SHOWS 5 FT
SEAS THERE LASTING INTO MON AND MON NGT...BUT WITH WAVEWATCH
RUNNING HIGH DURING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS OF LATE...WILL END THE SCA AT
4 AM TNGT WITH THE NEXT SHIFT EITHER EXPIRING THE HAZARD OR
EXTENDING IT OUT IN TIME. OTW...SUB-SCA SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT WHICH CROSSES
THE AREA LATE THU/THU NGT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE HEADWATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JAO
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...