Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 170510
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
110 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary remains over the region tonight and
Thursday as high pressure builds over the Northeast states. The
next cold front affects the area Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A surface trough is located from the PA/NJ border to the VA
Piedmont this evening, with another trough near the Carolina
Coast. Meanwhile, Gert is quickly departing to the NE well off
the coast. A few lingering isolated showers will drop into nrn
tier of the area late this evening, but should dissipate around
midnight. Warm and humid this evening with temperatures in the
mid/upper 70s. Patchy fog is possible tonight, primarily over
S-central VA/NE NC and the Ern Shore, although mid-clouds
arriving from the W overnight could inhibit coverage and
duration of any fog. Lows tonight will generally be in the
low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture pooling along a trof over the mts Thursday morning results
in sct convection developing with the activity progged to drift into
the Piedmont into the aftern hours. Will carry chc pops for now
(highest nwrn most zones). Dry sern zones. Otw, partly to mstly
sunny. Highs in the upr 80s to near 90 except 80-85 at the beaches.

Frontal boundary begins to sag south across the Mid Atlantic region
Thursday night. Enough moisture and support noted to keep chc pops
across the area. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

Plenty of moisture around the region Friday with a sfc trof providing
the trigger for convection to develop. Not expecting a washout, but
do think the chc for pcpn will be around all day. Some sun in
between individual cells will make it rather humid. Nothing
severe expected at this time, but gusty winds and locally heavy
downpours possible. Highs upr 80s to lwr 90s.

Frontal boundary slowly drifts se across the region Friday night and
Saturday keeping the chc for pcpn going. Drier air behind the front
will likely cut off any convection across nwrn most zones Sat. Lows
Fri night 70-75. Highs Sat 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front remains stalled near the Mid Atlantic Coast Sat
night into Sun morning before sagging well south of the area
by Sun aftn. Any showers/storms invof the front will diminish
as the front moves farther south of the region. For the rest
of Sun into Sun night, sfc high pressure builds north of the
area, and although temperatures should experience little to
no change, dewpoints will drop around 5 degrees thus feeling
a tad cooler. High pressure slides off the coast on Mon...
bringing a return to warm air advection and increasingly more
humid conditions. Sfc features rather diffuse during the
early part of next week, however seabreeze boundaries with
plenty of moisture present will keep a chance for
thunderstorms in the forecast during this time.

Highs generally mid-upper 80s to lower 90s; low-mid 80s
beaches. Lows Sat/Sun nights generally upper 60s NW to around
75F SE. Lows Mon/Tue nights generally 70-75F.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions to start the forecast period with just
some low vsbys at KECG. Sub-VFR aviation conditions are expected
at the other TAF sites as well except KORF due to patchy fog
and some stratus. All fog dissipates quickly after sunrise
with VFR conditions returning to the region. Widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms may once again develop this
afternoon, particularly across the piedmont. Generally light and
variable winds are anticipated this morning with winds becoming
southerly and increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon.

Outlook: A cold front approaches the region Friday into Saturday
bringing another chance for showers, thunderstorms, and sub-VFR
conditions. High pressure builds back into the region Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A boundary stalled just south of the Mason-Dixon line will
drift nwd tonight into Thu as Hurricane Gert continues to move
well away from the Mid Atlantic Coast. Seas average 3ft all
waters by this evening...dropping to 2ft in srn waters by Thu
morning. Winds generally E-SE 10kt or less this evening
through Thu morning. Pressure gradient begins to tighten as a
slow-moving cold front tracks into the Ohio Valley Thu,
crosses the mountains Fri, and moves over the waters late Fri
night into Sat. Winds speeds increase to an average of 10-15kt
Thu aftn...initially SE and then becoming more S early Fri
morning into Fri evening. Seas average 2-3ft during this time
span but may touch 4ft out near 20NM as the front crosses the
waters. Winds become more SW-W with speeds aob 10kt early Sat
morning into Sun morning as the front stalls near the Mid
Atlantic Coast, and then become more onshore Sun aftn into Mon
as the front sags well south of the area.

SCA flags not anticipated with the wind speed increase Thu/Fri
except with thunderstorms associated with the front. If any
headlines are necessary, they can be handled with short-fused
MWS or SMW products.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...BMD



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