Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 261802
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
202 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered off the North Carolina coast
through tonight, then pushes well off the Mid Atlantic coast on
Friday. Low pressure slowly approaches from the south Saturday,
and will move into the southeast coast Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Late morning analysis indicating high pressure at the surface and
aloft centered off well off the Carolina coast, bringing a light
SSW flow to the local area. The upper ridge stays in place today
and should limit convective coverage later this aftn and evening
despite a significant increase in low level moisture/sfc dew pts
as compared to yesterday at this time (mid 60s today vs. low-mid
50s 24 hrs ago). Skies are still mainly cloud-free, but area 12z
soundings off to our W/SW at RNK and GSO suggest that convective
temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with at least SCT if not a
period of BKN cu developing later this aftn over the interior.
This may keep highs from getting above the upper 80s for most
areas, though still expect a few areas to hit 90 F (if any of our
primary climate sites reach 90 F, it will be the first time this
season (see climate section). High res models not very excited
about tstm activity, and have opted to cap POPS at slight chc/20%
and not occurring until late this aftn. Any sfc-based convection
should wane rather quickly after sunset, but a weak upper level
shortwave could bring some isolated showers and tstms through
midnight and will have 20% POPS acrs mainly the nrn 1/2 of the
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy, warm and somewhat humid tngt with
lows in the mid to upr 60s. Forecast soundings again not real
enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs for Fri aftn/evening, with just
some minimal forcing due to lee trof and weak instability
along/east of the mountains. So, will generally maintain ~20%
POPS Fri aftn/evening. Highs on Fri in the mid to upr 80s, and an
increase in sse flow should keep it a tad cooler than Thu along
the cst with highs in the upr 70s to lwr 80s. Mostly clear to
partly cloudy Fri ngt with lows in the lwr to mid 60s. For Sat,
models remain in generally good agreement at keeping the deeper
moisture associated with the low off the SE cst to our south. So,
will keep only a minimal chc for aftn showers/tstms confined to
extreme srn VA and ne NC, with a partly sunny sky south to a
mostly sunny sky north. Highs in the mid to upr 80s
inland/piedmont areas, and in the upr 70s to lwr 80s along the
cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast by late this weekend into the middle of next week will
be largely dependent on the evolution of the low pressure system
expected to develop off the southeast U.S. coast within the next few
days. 12Z suite of model guidance supports the development of this
low by this weekend but then greatly diverge on its eventual
movement next week. The low could develop sub-tropical or tropical
characteristics (see latest NHC TWO) as it drifts toward the
southeast U.S. coast this weekend. Even if it does so, it`s impact
would most likely be minimal across our FA...with the exception of
increased shower/thunderstorm chances and possible elevated
seas/increased rip current risk starting Sunday. For now, will
continue to carry chc pops (30-50%) Sun-Tues...lowering a bit by
next Wed. Temperatures, tempered by clouds and possible convection,
should be near normal through the period. Highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Remaining mild at night due to influx of higher dew point
air. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic this
afternoon, resulting in VFR conditions and southwest winds at or
below 10 knots. Latest visible satellite imagery depicts cumulus
popping across the region with ceilings around 5k feet AGL. Expect
few to scattered clouds around 5k ft AGL to linger through the
overnight. Fog is possible again over the Piedmont, but sufficient
dewpoint depressions (warm temps) will prevent fog at the TAF
sites. South to southwest winds remain at or below 10 knots.

High pressure pushes farther offshore Friday with afternoon and
evening isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low
pressure lifts toward the southeast coast into Saturday, lingering
along the Carolina coast through early next week. Clouds increase
and lower Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms possible
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary through Sat. Hi pres sfc-aloft rmns nr the
mdatlc wtrs through Fri...providing mnly SSW wnds aob 15 kt.
Beyond that...SE wnds around 10 kt are expected Sat. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst this
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs. For now...SE winds avgg 10-15 kt Sun/Mon...seas
may approach 5 ft...esp off VA/NE NC.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

* 1st 90 deg day has not yet occurred this year at climate sites:

                 (Avg Date / Last Yr):
*  RIC:           May 13   / May 12
*  ORF:           May 17   / May 12
*  SBY:           May 27   / Jun 1

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ Radar will remain offline for maintanence through Thursday.
New parts are on order.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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