Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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114
FXUS61 KAKQ 200859
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning. High
pressure becomes anchored off the southeast coast this evening
through Wednesday bringing a return to well above normal
temperatures. A backdoor cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic
region through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface analysis reveals surface warm front along the
Chesapeake Bay, extending SSW into NE NC and into the central
and western Carolinas. Widespread fog has developed along and
ahead of the boundary, as moisture pools ahead of the front.
Have extended Dense Fog Advisory east to include much of the SW
tier of the area, from AKQ south to Bertie County, NC...and the
US-58 Corridor from South Hill to Franklin, VA. Will go with an
SPS with more patchy lower VSBY farther north into RIC metro
and Hampton Roads...with Hi-res CAMs indicating that a further
extension north with Dense Fog Advy is possible before 5-6 AM.

Clouds will be slow to scour out today, with models indicating
that we don`t really break out until early to mid-aftn. Slower
timing has resulted in taking temps down a few degrees. Still a
warm day nonetheless. Summer-like pattern setting up with strong
high in the western Atlantic will allow thicknesses to jump
appreciably today. After a slow start, look for temps to quickly
climb into the 70s this aftn except in the 60s along the eastern
shore and at the beaches.

Stratus and patchy fog re-occurs tonight, with additional
locally dense fog a possibility. Mild Tues night with lows in
the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Warmest day of the week comes Wed, where record highs will
likely fall across the region. Once again, concern for temps
getting off to a slow start with Fog lingering into the mid-
morning hours, but with the warm start, won`t take long to reach
expected highs 75-80, except 60s at the beaches.

A backdoor cold front approaches from the north Wed night and
progged to be near the northern AKQ zones by 12Z Thu. Moisture
increases along and ahead of this feature but is a bit slower than
previous models had, and will continue to side toward the slower
ECMWF depiction for the period. Will carry low chc pops across
the nrn half of the fa late Wed night. Lows 50-55 north. 55-60
South.

The front is slow to move south and is progged to only get to
central Virginia by 00Z Fri. Cooler with chc to likely pops
across the north, warmer with low chc pops across the south.
Temps tricky and will all depend on the frontal position. Highs
mid-upr 50s lwr Md eastern shore...60s over most of the area
with 70s across NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect more chcs for rain showers in the extended period,
Although above normal temps will prevail acrs the area. Frontal
boundary just south of the area Thu night, will gradually lift
back north as a warm front later Fri into Fri night, providing a
20-40% chc of showers. That boundary will be just north of the
CWA during Sat, as a cold front starts to push into the OH/TN
valley. Will have slgt chc to chc Pops, mainly nrn and wrn
counties. Chcs for showers will then increase fm the NW Sat
night into Sun, as the cold front approaches and pushes into the
region. Expecting mainly dry wx Sun night and Mon, as the front
pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into and over the
area.

Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri, mainly in the mid 60s to
lower 70s Sat and Sun, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon.
Lows will range thru the 40s to near 50 Thu night, in the upper
40s to mid 50s Fri night, in the 50s Sat night, and in the mid
40s to lower 50s Sun night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Poor Aviation conditions this morning, as a steady stream of
moisture continues to overspread the region ahead of an
approaching warm front. Further deterioration of IFR/LIFR
conditions across terminals is expected, with only slow
improvement expected through the morning. A warm front will
lift north of the region later this morning, slowly drying out
the upr levels while the lwr levels will be slow to scour out.
Thus, CIGS will be slow to rise into MVFR range by or shortly
after 15Z Tue, with VFR conditions not expected to return until
mid to late afternoon into the early evening.

Outlook... A back door cold front approaches from the NW Wed
night then drops south across the area on Thu. Expect a return
to IFR/MVFR conditions in rain/fog Thu/Fri behind this feature.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary with this forecast package. A stationary
frontal bndry is located over the area this morning, allowing for
light winds and marine dense fog to develop. Attm, the dense fog
advsry continues over all wtrs through mid morning. The front should
gradually dissipate or slide north as a warm front later today,
allowing for southerly flow to increase to ~10-15 kt this evening
into tonight. 1-2 ft waves over the Bay with 2-3 ft seas over
coastal wtrs. Sfc high pressure will remain anchored offshore into
Wed, with continued south flow over the local wtrs. With winds
remaining below SCA criteria and dewpoints in the 50s, marine fog is
expected at times through the period.

Back door cold front then drops into the region during Thu, turning
winds to the N/NE (10-15 kt most areas) into Fri. The front then
lifts back north as a warm front later Fri, and will move north of
the region Fri night. Waves/seas will increase Thu into Fri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Another round of record highs will possibly be challenged Tue
2/20 and Wed 2/21:

* Record highs:

* Date: Tue 2/20   Wed 2/21

* RIC:  77 (1930)  75 (1930)
* ORF:  77 (1991)  79 (2014)
* SBY:  75 (1930)  75 (1943)
* ECG:  78 (1991)  77 (2014)

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ radar will be down until further notice with an antenna
pedestal issue. See FTMAKQ for more details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ012-013-
     030.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ065-066-
     079-087-088-092.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...



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