Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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647
FXUS61 KAKQ 250005
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
705 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area tonight, then slides off the
coast Wednesday. A cold front crosses the region Thursday
morning. More seasonable temperatures return this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Latest regional radar mosaic indicates ongoing light
precipitation wrapping around a ~986mb surface low south of
Long Island. A band of light rain has developed across the
extreme northeast portion of the forecast area this afternoon,
but otherwise, dry conditions have prevailed. GOES water vapor
imagery places a shear axis generally across the northeast half
of the local area, but the added dynamics have been met with a
drying atmosphere and warming temperatures aloft. Have limited
remaining chance POPs to the Maryland Eastern Shore through the
afternoon. Cloud cover that has split the local area in half
this afternoon will also push toward the coast as upper and
surface high pressure builds into the region. A clear sky is
expected inland by late afternoon, and clearing toward the coast
through this evening. Upper and surface high pressure locate
over the region tonight. A light westerly wind is forecast with
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridge axis locates along the eastern Seaboard
Wednesday as the next upper level trough pushes across the
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure centers over the Bahamas
with a warm front lifting through the region late Wednesday in
the amplifying flow aloft. Dry conditions are forecast along
with sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Clouds increase late
Wednesday into Wednesday evening ahead of the approaching upper
level trough and associated cold front. Continue to undercut
guidance for high temperatures Wednesday, as a strong low level
inversion and limited return flow/mixing prevent temperatures
from reaching their full potential. Highs forecast in the low to
mid 60`s. 50`s Eastern Shore. Mild Wednesday night as the sky
becomes mostly cloudy ahead of the approaching front. Lows in
the upper 40`s to low 50`s. Cold front reaches the local area
late Wednesday night and pushes across the region Thursday
morning. Latest guidance continues to indicate a moisture tap
from the Gulf of Mexico, with good moisture flux into the region
ahead of the front and potent upper level shortwave. Likely
POPs have been retained from central Virginia eastward to the
coast Thursday morning. The front quickly pushes offshore
Thursday afternoon with dry westerly flow expected over the
region. Dry conditions and a mostly sunny sky is forecast
Thursday afternoon. Highs warm into the mid to upper 50`s to
near 60, as the strongest push of cold air advection is delayed
until late Thursday/Thursday night. Trough axis pushes offshore
Thursday night, but broad cyclonic flow persists Friday across
the Northeast. Deep layer, dry westerly and downslope flow over
the local area results in a dry forecast Friday. Temperatures
drop into the low to mid 30`s inland to upper 30`s near the
coast Friday morning, before warming into the mid to upper 40`s
Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper level trough is expected to develop over the Ern Conus
Friday through the weekend bringing dry and seasonably cool
conditions to the region. Highs are forecast to be in the low/mid
40s with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. A moisture starved system
tracks through the base of the trough and pushes off the Carolina
coast late Sunday night into early Monday. There could be some light
snow or flurries with this system despite limited moisture. This
system will re-enforce the trough with dry and seasonably cool
conditions continuing into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail as strong low pressure off the New
England coast continues to move NE and broad upper level ridge
builds towards the Mid Atl region. A few low and mid level
ceilings will affect the eastern portions of the CWA early
tonight but clouds are expected to mostly clear during the
overnight. Winds will become W-NW through the night and then SW
on Wednesday. Some gusty winds to 20-25 kts will persist along
the coast.

OUTLOOK...The ridge of high pressure slides acrs the area and
off the coast during Wed. Then, there will be a chance for
showers late Wed night thru Thu morning associated with a cold
front moving acrs the region. Dry conditions expected for Thu
aftn thru Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure off the New England coast will
gradually lift to the NE tonight into Wednesday as high pressure
build into the region from the NW. The wind will remain 20-25kt with
gusts ~30kt over the ocean into tonight, with 15-20kt for the
Bay/Sound into the evening, and 10-15kt for the rivers. Seas remain
5-8ft this aftn, and will slowly subside to 4-5ft N to 3-4ft S later
tonight. SCAs for the nrn Bay zone has been extended through 10 pm,
with the remaining Bay zones and Sound through 7 pm. The nrn ocean
zones have been extended through 7 am Wed, with 4 am Wed for the srn
ocean zones. A cold front approaches form the NW Wednesday night and
crosses the coast Thursday morning. The wind will become SW 10-
15kt/15-20kt ocean Wednesday night, and then become W 15-20kt/20-
25kt ocean Thursday into Thursday night with the cold frontal
passage and the subsequent CAA. Seas build to 4-5ft out near 20nm,
with 3-4ft waves in the Bay. Low-end SCA conditions are likely for
most of the marine area. High pressure builds in from the W Thursday
night into the weekend bringing an extended period of offshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM/JEF
MARINE...AJZ



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