Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271043
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
643 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
TURNS NORTHEAST AND TRACKS NORTH OF BERMUDA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN STALLS ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRS OVR THE MID ATLNTC RGN WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVG SE FROM THE GT LAKES RGN. MEANWHILE...HRCN CRISTOBAL IS
LCTD ABT 400 MILES WSW OF BERMUDA MOVG NNE AT 15 MPH.

CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NE AS DAY PROGRESSES THEN ACCELERATE
WHILE TRACKING N OF BERMUDA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ARND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM KEEPS IT DRY
TODAY AS ANY PCPN STAYS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND MAINLY OUT OVR THE
GULF STREAM WATERS.

CALM TO LGT NE WNDS HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM ALONG WITH
AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF
SHORTLY ARND 12Z. M SUNNY SKIES XPCTD TODAY ALTHOUGH SERN CSTL AREAS
MAY SEE PERIODIC BKN SC DECK RESULTING IN PT SUNNY SKIES. ANY PCPN
WITH APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO REMAIN NW OF RGN THRU 00Z. H85 TMPS
RISE TO NR 17C...RESULTING IN HIGHS GNRLY BTWN 85-90...XCPT 80-85
AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
APPRCHG CDFRNT WILL HELP TO KICK CRISTOBAL NE AND FRTHR AWAY FROM
THE COAST TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW CONVECTION WITH CDFRNT DSPTG ACROSS
NRN AND WRN VA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY LIMITED MSTR WITH THE BNDRY
AS IT CROSSES THE FA LATE TONIGHT AND THURS MORNING. OTHR THAN SOME
CLOUDS...KEPT A DRY FROPA ACROSS THE RGN TONITE. LOWS 65-70.

BNDRY SLOWS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE VA/NC BRDR THURSDAY AFTRN. MODELS
OFFERING UP DIFFERENT SOLNS WRT TO HOW MUCH MSTR IS AVBL FOR SCT
CONVECTION TO DVLP ALONG IT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NRN NC. GFS THE
WETTEST WITH THE NAM/SREF RTHR DRY. FOR NOW...BEST SPRT FOR ISLTD
DIURNAL CONVECTION WUD BE ACROSS SRN THIRD OF FA (MAINLY S OF RT
460). HIGH THURS 85-90...XCPT L-M80S ERN SHORE AREAS. LOWS THURS
NIGHT IN THE 60S.

HIGH PRS MOVES ACROSS NRN STATES FRI WITH BNDRY STALLED OVR NC.
AGAIN...SOME DISSAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN THE BNDRY BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. GFS IS QUICKER...NAM/SREF SLOWER WITH
THE ECMWF A COMPROMISE. THUS...XPCT ISLTD CONVECTION ACROSS SRN
TIER CNTYS LATE. DRY NORTH. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH...M-U80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES EXITS OFF NEW ENG FRI NGT...THEN BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY INVOF WCNTRL ATLC THROUGH THE WKND. A SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS N ACRS THE FA FRI NGT THROUGH SAT MRNG W/ PSBL ISOLD PCPN.
OTRW...BALANCE OF THE PD FM SAT THROUGH SUN WILL BE PC...WARM AND
MORE HUMID. A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHES FM THE WNW LATE SUN.
INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS
CLOUDS AND POPS BY LATE SUN (W)...THEN ACRS THE REST OF THE FA INTO
MON. LO AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT TO RMN IN PLACE INVOF SE CONUS STATES
EARLY NEXT WK...RESULTING IN CONTD WARM/HUMID WX OVR THE RGN FOR
EARLY SEP. HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND SAT/SUN...
L/M80S AT THE CST. BY MON/TUE...HI TEMPS MNLY IN THE M/U80S. LOW
TEMPS THROUGH THE PD FM THE U60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AROUND
1500 FT WILL AFFECT KORF AND KPHF THROUGH 13Z. IN ADDITION...
A SHALLOW LAYER OF IFR/LIFR FOG/STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE AND INTERIOR NE NC WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND
1/2SM AT KSBY/KECG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 13-14Z.
VFR ELSEWHERE WITH EITHER CALM OR LIGHT NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT/THURS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGION
FRI/SAT. SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY AM FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN
06-12Z BOTH FRI/SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID MS VLY
CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THAT FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE WATERS BY
THU AFTN/NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E INTO NEW ENGLAND.

MOST SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS REMAIN SUB-SCA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER INCREASE IN SEAS (HIGHEST SRN PORTION...POSSIBLY TO
7-9 FT?) WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO THU AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSES
WELL OFFSHORE.

AFTER CONTINUED NE WINDS TODAY...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE WINDS
SHIFT TO OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. ONCE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIPS S
ACROSS THE WATERS THU...DIRECTION BECOMES N-NE THEN E INTO FRI (W/ A
POSSIBLE SURGE IN SPEEDS TO JUST BELOW LOW END SCA...ESP NRN
PORTIONS THU MORNING). A TRANSITION FROM ONSHORE WINDS TO MOSTLY S
OCCURS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
     AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/JDM






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