


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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999 FXUS61 KAKQ 160643 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 243 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern continues through Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms and localized flooding possible. Hot and humid conditions, with a somewhat lower storm coverage is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch has been cancelled all areas with no additional heavy rainfall and flash flood potential expected overnight. - Areal Flood Warnings have been extended into early Wed morning for portions of southside VA where widespread road closures remain in place due to lingering areas of high water. The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge centered across the western Atlantic, ridging into the SE CONUS, with an upper level trough across the northern Plains and central/ern Canada. At the sfc, a weak pressure pattern is in place, with a quasi-stationary boundary now mainly N of the local area. Earlier showers and storms have diminished, with just a few spotty showers with embedded tstms over the MD eastern shore (mainly along the coast). Additional heavy rain and flash flooding is not anticipated, allowing the cancellation of the Flood Watch. Given a fairly widespread region of lingering high water and road closures, decided to extend the Areal Flood Watch across southside VA into early Wed morning. Otherwise, mainly dry overnight, with perhaps a few additional showers manly along the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will probably develop overnight, but widespread dense fog is unlikely. LOws will mainly range in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion of our area reach the 105F+ criteria. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is very light out of the SSW. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to persist at RIC through 10-12z (along with some MVFR vsby). Otherwise, MVFR cigs are possible at PHF and SBY after 09-10z. Any lingering MVFR cigs after 12z are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wednesday aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish Wednesday evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 240 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River from tonight through Thursday morning. - Gusty southwest winds persist through Thursday night before benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend. SW flow prevails across the waters this morning with strong Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds through today will generally be 10-15 kt, with a few gusts to 20 kt possible later this afternoon and evening. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight as the pressure gradient tightens with low pressure moving well N of the region. SCAs have been raised with this forecast package across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River for SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. SCAs are in effect from 05z/1 AM Thu until 17z/1 PM Thu. While gusts to 20-25 kt are also possible on the coastal waters, seas hovering below 5 ft should mitigate the need for headlines here. Confidence is also lower on the upper rivers, but these zones could eventually be added to the SCA. Winds should gradually diminish over the open waters by Thursday afternoon. However, gusty SW winds should continue across the rivers and lower Chesapeake Bay through most of Thursday afternoon and the SCA may eventually need to be extended into this timeframe. Another brief period of SCAs are possible Thursday night before winds quickly diminish from the daytime hours Friday through most of the weekend. Seas build to 2-3 ft later today and then 3-4 ft tonight through Thursday night. Waves in the bay should average 2-3 ft tonight through Thursday, but could momentarily increase to ~4 ft early Thursday morning. Seas/waves return to a benign 1-3 ft from Friday into the weekend. After analyzing latest wave model data, will keep a low rip current risk for all beaches today. The northern beaches could near MODERATE by the later afternoon/evening, but will hold off on that possibility in the surf forecast for now. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief stronger wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early Wed afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/NB SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB LONG TERM...AJZ/NB AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SW HYDROLOGY...