Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
695
FXUS61 KAKQ 011109
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA MONDAY...THEN PUSHES TO THE COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME EROSION OF THE PERSISTENT LO LVL WEDGE BEGINNING ACRS THE FA
AS WNDS BECOMING MORE SE AND CIGS RISING. A RATHER WIDESPREAD OF
RA CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH AREAS OF PIEDMONT MNLY W OF I95. TEMPS IN
THE L-M50S.

CONTD EROSION XPCD THROUGH THE MRNG HRS AS FCST BY THE RISING LI
VALUES (THROUGH 18Z/01). LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS (60-100%) FOR
AREAS MNLY NW OF A LINE FM AVC-RIC-WAL THIS MRNG...TAPERING TO
20-30% CHCS (SHRAS) IN FAR SE VA/NE NC. TRANSFORMATION FM STABLE
CONDS TO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTN AS WARMING OCCURS. WILL
CONT W/ PSBL SCT SHRAS/TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE (ESP W OF THE BAY). HI
TEMPS FM THE 60S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE M-U70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEEPING CHC-LIKELY POPS OVR THE FA TNGT...THOUGH TAPERING OFF AFT
MDNGT. VRB CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVE...THEN WIDESPREAD STRATUS
PSBL AFT MDNGT IN LGT SSW LO LVL FLO. LO TEMPS MNLY IN THE L-M60S.

MDLS SUGGESTING A BREAK IN PCPN AND EVEN WIDESPREAD CLDNS FOR MUCH
OF MON AHEAD OF SLOLY MOVING CDFNT APPROACHING FM THE NW. BECOMING
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AGN BY MON AFTN W/ VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY CONDS.
FORCING RMNS VERY WK. HI TEMPS IN THE L-M80S...THOUGH 70S NR THE
CST.

UPR LVL LO PRES EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO
THE MDATLC STATES BEGINNING MON EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF
MOISTURE XPCD TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/TUE MRNG THEN EXIT BY TUE
AFTN. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE AFTN. WILL
HAVE A SEVERAL HR PD OF HI CHC (S)-LIKELY (CNTRL/N) POPS MON
NGT/TUE MRNG THEN XPCG PCPN COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE SCT TUE AFTN.
WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST SLGT CHC TSTM MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL
AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS
MON NGT FM THE ARND 60F NW TO THE M60S SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE
U60S N TO M70S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO
SLGTLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FOR TUE NGT/WED...A FRNTAL BNDRY SLOWLY
SAGS S INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS LO PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRNT.
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE FRNT CLOSER TO THE
FA WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES THE FRNT FARTHER S. CHANCES OF RAIN
RANGE FM 20% NW AREAS TO 50% SE AREAS. LO TEMPS TUE NGT IN THE
LO/MID 50S WITH HI TEMPS WED IN THE LO/MID 70S. CHC POPS CONTINUE
THU AND FRI WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. HI TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ON AVG EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR ALL SITES THRU 14Z WITH -RA
MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE. WARM FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AT KRIC AND KSBY. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR ALL SITES
(EXCEPT LINGERING MVFR KSBY) WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND/OR TSTMS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
E-SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. CONTINUED S WINDS
10-15 KT TONIGHT MAY PUSH SEAS TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER NORTHERN
WATERS...AND FOR THAT REASON HAVE HOISTED AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS
SEAS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED THRU MON AFTN....WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 10
KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE N-NE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
     TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR/MRD
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.