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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 240155
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
THEN DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL VA TO NE MD.
THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH
MORE REGIONALLY EXTENDS FROM NE PA BACK THROUGH WV. THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CLIP FAR NRN AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING TO THE E
LATE. A BAND OF 40-50% POPS EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NRN AREAS...AND
TAPERS DOWN TO 20% FROM THE RIC METRO TO THE VA ERH SHORE.
OTHERWISE...A WARM HUMID NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SE ACROSS THE FA THU MORNING BEFORE
SLOWING AS IT APPRCHS THE NC/NC BORDER DRNG THE AFTRN. MEANWHILE...
MODELS DEPICT WEAK S/W MOVG NE ALONG THE BNDRY DRNG THE AFTRN AND
EVENING. BEST FORCING COUPLED WITH A 60-70KT RRQ OF UPR JET APPEARS
TO ENHANCE PCPN CHC ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA. APPEARS THAT PORTIONS OF
THE FA THAT NEED RAIN THE MOST (IVOF RIC METRO AREA) MAY LUCK OUT
WITH THE HIGHER QPF`S ONCE AGAIN. SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THE FROPA. GIVEN PW`S AOA
1.5 INCHES...SOME HVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WNDS PSBL IN ANY TSTRM
ACROSS THE SOUTH. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
FA...CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. TMPS TRICKY. HIGHS 80-85 NORTH...
85-90 SOUTH.

BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WITH LINGERING TROF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI AFTRN.
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EVE...WITH CHC POPS AFTER
MIDNITE. DRYING FROM THE NORTH ENDS PCPN THERE. STILL MUGGY THU
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
IN ACROSS NC CNTYS DRNG THE AFTRN. HIGHS IN THE L-M80S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER WRT RETURNING MOISTURE SAT AFTRN. GFS WETTER
FARTHER NORTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY. LOWS FRI NIGHT 65-70. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY TO WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS AT SBY FROM
04-06Z. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.

COLD FRONT FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
RIC/SBY IN THE MORNING AND REACH SE PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. PCPN
BREAKS OUT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY OVER FAR SRN VA AND NE NORTH
CAROLINA. INDICATED SHOWERS FOR RIC/ORF AND PHF IN THE AFTN. TSTMS
WILL BE PSBL DURING THESE TIMES. PCPN SHOULD BE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
OF SBY AND THROUGH 00Z...NORTH OF ECG.

KEPT IFR OUT OF THE FCST. EXPECT ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT FOG BUT
SOME STRATUS WILL BE PSBL. HAVE SCT STRATUS SE PORTIONS BUT IT IS
PSBL THAT MVFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AT SOME OF THE SITES NEAR
SUNRISE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. A COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY AFFECT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE ISSUE.
CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE
DIRECTLY. IN THE MEANTIME...AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE
KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SFC HI
PRES LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE AND A FAIRLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVR THE
MID ATLANTIC. AHEAD OF A PREFRNTAL TROF OVR THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTN/EVENG...SLY WINDS OVR THE BAY WILL RISE TO 10-15 KT...JUST BLO
SCA THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL BLD TO 3-4 FT FOR NRN CSTL WTRS. A COLD
FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS ON THU...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FM SW TO NW...AND
STAYING SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRNT DUE TO VERY WEAK CAA. BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRI AND SAT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STAY AOB 10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVR THE BAY AND
2-3 FT OVR CSTL WTRS. NEXT COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WTRS LATE MON/MON
NGT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
EQUIPMENT...AKQ