Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220215
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO EASTWARD TO RIGHT
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL BLD FM SE OH EWRD TO RIGHT OVR THE REGION TNGT
INTO SAT MORNG. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWS
RANGING FM THE UPR TEENS TO THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HI WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST LATE SAT INTO SUN. SSW WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO NEAR 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS LATE SAT MORNG THRU THE AFTN
HELPING TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S UNDER A SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THICKEN FM
THE SW LATE SAT NGT INTO MIDDAY SUN...AS GULF CST MOISTURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWRD INTO THE SE UNITED STATES.
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY SAT NGT WITH LOWS
RANGING THRU THE 30S.

THE WARM FRONT WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NNE AND ACRS THE REGION SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT. HAVE POPS FOR RAIN INCREASING TO 80% EVERYWHERE
BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 70% NE TO 40% SW BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MON. HIGHS ON SUN RANGING FM THE MID 50S INTO THE LWR 60S.
LOWS SUN NGT RANGING THRU THE 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL
NNE OF THE REGION AT 12Z MON...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TWD/INTO
OUR EXTRM WRN CNTIES BY 00Z TUE. AFTER LWR CLOUDS AND FOG MON
MORNG...SW WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 70S UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. FOR NOW...JUST
HAVE A SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST BY 12Z TUE. BNDRY THEN
STALLS OVR THE GULF STREAM TUE & WED IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
S/W`S PROGGED TO DVLP THEN MOVE NE ALONG IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRS
(OF PACIFIC ORIGIN) OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION BUILDS S&E THRU
THE MID WEEK PRD. UPR LVL LOW AND TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED TO DIVE
SE FROM THE GT LAKES THU WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING INTO THE ARA FRI.

GRIDS WILL INDICATE SLGHT CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER
AS CAA SET IN BEHIND THE FRNT. LOWS M-U40S NWRN HALF 50-55 SERN
HALF. TUE THRU WED FCST DEPENDS ON HOW FAR N&W MSTR GETS FROM THE
DVLPNG LOW OFF THE SERN COAST. GFS HAS A TRACK A BIT FRTHR EAST
KEEPING THE PCPN CONFINED TO SERN CSTL AREAS BY LATE TUE...AND GNRLY
E OF I95 WED. ECMWF SLOWER WITH A DRY TUE...PCPN MOVG ACROSS SERN
CSTL AREAS TUE NIGHT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA WED BEFORE
PULLING OUT TO SEAS WED NIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF WITH THE COASTAL LOW TUE & WED...BUT THNK
IT IS OVERDONE WRT THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST
TURKEY DAY. WILL INDICATE 20-30 POP ACROSS SERN CSTL AREAS TUE. DRY
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS M50S-L60S. A GENERAL RAIN OVRSPRDS THE FA SE-NW
TUES NIGHT AND WED...THEN ENDS WED EVE AS THE LOW PULLS FRTHR
OFFSHORE. PCPN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS TUE NIGHT M30S-M40S.
HIGHS WED M40S-L50S. PCPN ENDS WED EVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOWS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS FALL INTO THE U20S-L30S W OF THE
BAY...M-U30S SERN CSTL AREAS.

CLIPPER TYPE S/W DIVES SE THU. ENUF MSTR SEEN WITH THIS FTR FOR AT
LEAST SLGHT CHC DIURNAL SHWRS (PSBLY MIXED WITH IP???) THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGHS 45-50. DRYING OUT THURS NIGHT AND FRI. LOWS U20S-M30S
XCPT 35-40 SERN CSTL AREAS. HIGHS FRI M-U40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKY AND LIGHT
WIND. LOW DEWPTS MEAN NO FOG IS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE N-E AND WILL GRADUALLY SHFT TO SW BY SAT AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SAT...MOVING
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING GOING ON ATTM TO KEEP THE CRNT SCA HEADLINES GOING FOR
ANTHR FEW HRS. WNDS QUICKLY DMNSH AFTR 00Z AND THUS THE SCA SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THEN. NE WINDS ACROSS SERN CSTL WTRS XPCTD TO
KEEP SEAS ARND 5 FT THRU THE EVENING HRS.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SAT...THEN MOVES
WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. MODELS NOW SLOWER WITH THE APPRCH OF THE
NEXT SYSTM FROM THE SW. THUS...NXT CHC FOR SCA HEADLINES COMES SUN
NIGHT AND MON AS PRS GRDNT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MPR





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