Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 211122 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
522 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, little change from previous aviation AFD
reasoning. Expect redevelopment of low clouds, generally in the
MVFR category, later today and persist through the end of this
fcst cycle. There could be some light wintry precipitation later
today as well. However, confidence remains low with respect to
coverage amount and whether or not any of the terminal sites will
be impacted. As a result, have decided to omit mention of this
weather element from this fcst as it currently appears the
greatest threat for wintry precipitation will be just east of the
TAF sites. Amendments may become necessary later today, depending
on how the overall above mentioned scenario unfolds.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 420 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
To coin a phrase from a popular book series, the theme of the
forecast is of fire and ice (but not quiet in that order).

Our post-frontal airmass remains in place across the Panhandles.
Given the better performance of the short-range models with
mentioned cold front the past few nights, the near-term forecast
will lean closely to the NAM/HRRR. These show as our overrunning
pattern sets up, we expect for a mixed bag of wintry precip to
develop across the Panhandles. Current regional RADAR imagery
shows this precip has already developed around the Midland/Odessa
area. We could see precip develop as early as 6 AM, but chances
really ramp up after 10 AM. This evening we will see precip clear
the Panhandles from west to east before ending around Midnight.

Precip types will heavily depend on how quickly a warm nose
develops this evening. For the daylight hours we will likely see
a combination of snow and sleet. Snow will be favored for the on-
Caprock counties while while sleet will be favored across the off-
Caprock counties. Naturally there will be a transition zone where
a combination of both is possible and this zone should be moving
eastward throughout the day. This evening the above mentioned warm
nose is expected to develop between 700mb and 800mb. The warmer
temperatures aloft will allow for a transition from snow/sleet to
freezing rain. This is mainly expected across the southeastern
Texas Panhandle. Amounts will be greatly dependent on how long
(if any) precip undergoes a transition. As things stand right now,
snow amounts are expected around 1 inch across the eastern
Panhandles while the western Panhandles will see less than 1 inch.
Light ice amounts of a few tenths are possible across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. As such a Winter Weather Advisory
has been issued for the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles from
6 AM until Midnight.

One item of note, there is some indication that a higher band of
snow could develop across the northwestern portions of the
Panhandles. If this band does in fact develop then amounts within
the band could result in greater than 1 inch. This will have to be
watched in case the advisory needs to be expanded westward.

Another round of light freezing rain could be possible Thursday
morning before we warm above freezing. Any ice glazing which does
develop should quickly melt. This will be the last round of precip
through the next seven days. A gradual warming trend is expected
through the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Thursday. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible
Friday through Monday as relative humidity drops during the
afternoon. There is some question concerning the recovery of the
fuels over the weekend with the expected precip/cold weather over
the next 36 hours. If fuels return to the 90th percentile range
then our Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI) of 1 to 2 may require an
RFD.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...
     Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Beaver.


&&

$$


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