Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
601 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Sunday. Although isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites between 22Z
today and 06Z Sunday, confidence too low at this time to include
in the TAF forecast. West to northwest winds 10 to 15 knots will
become northerly at the Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites after 14Z to
16Z today and after 20Z to 22Z today at the Amarillo TAF site.
Wind speeds will increase to around 15 to 25 knots with gusts to
near 30 to 35 knots after 00Z Sunday, but should diminish at the
Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites after 04Z to 08Z Sunday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 454 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/


Noteworthy items are limited for this forecast package, but will try
to highlight some of the more interesting developments during the
next 7 days.

A cold front will stall out across the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon before pushing through late Saturday night. Height rises
are pretty impressive behind the front at about 10-15 mb/6 hrs, for
mainly central and western parts of the Panhandles. This will create
a strong pressure gradient across the forecast area in the evening
hours. Wind speeds Saturday night will be around 25 to 35 mph for
central and western parts of the Panhandles while gusting in the 35
to 45 mph range before calming down around midnight. That being
said, it will still be breezy overnight with most areas around 20 to
25 mph sustained. With the frontal passage we also have a small
chance for rainfall across northern/northwestern parts of the
forecast area, mainly north of I-40.

After Saturday, we have several chances for rainfall again beginning
Monday and going through the week. Models are not in good agreement
through the work week, so confidence is somewhat low. There is a
little agreement between the European the GFS Wednesday through
Thursday for QPF output, but overall the extended has many factors to
limit confidence for rainfall coverage and timing.

Outside of today, temperatures will be pretty close to normal
through the rest of the seven days. Today`s highs will range greatly
across the panhandles with the cold front sitting across the Texas
Panhandle. Look for highs to range anywhere from the mid-to-upper
70s for northern parts of the forecast the upper 90s
across the southern and southeastern parts of the Texas Panhandle.
For far southeastern areas, in and around the Wellington area, dont
be surprised if it gets to 100 degrees this afternoon.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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