Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200450 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/ LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN OVER EASTERN NM AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...EXPECT
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO FILL IN AT KAMA/KDHT. HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT KGUY SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TIMING
AND IMPACTS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 08-09Z ALTHOUGH
AMENDMENTS TO VISBYS ADN CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT KAMA/KDHT NOT UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z. SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERIMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AND TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ODILE OVER CENTRAL TX. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SUBTLE FORCING SHOULD KEEP A DOWNWARD TREND
IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AT KAMA/KDHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
CAN ALSO DEVELOP AT KGUY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN THOSE OF MOST
INTEREST...BUT RAIN CHANCES CERTAINLY WON`T LEAVE THE PANHANDLES AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SW TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
PRETTY MINIMAL...BUT PRECIP EFFICIENCY IS PEGGED AT ABOUT THE MAX
FOR THE AREA GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE. WHAT WOULD SEEMINGLY BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE SPITTING OUT A HALF INCH OF
RAIN IN 20 MINUTE INTERVALS AS THEY PASS. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SW TX PANHANDLE, WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME IS WHEN WE WILL SEE MOST OF OUR RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT. THINK ANY FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRETTY LOCALIZED.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MOISTURE REMAINS
DEEP AND PLENTIFUL. A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING MEANS AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED THAN OTHERS...THOUGH THE WEEK WILL
BE NO MEANS BE A WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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