Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222317
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
517 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions expected through period. Southwest winds this
evening 5-10 knots and gradually veer to northwesterly overnight.
Winds will shift southerly again towards the end of the TAF
period. One line TAFS for all sites as winds are anticipated to
be less than 10 kts for the TAF period. BKN 25kft CIG currently in
TAF will likely transition to SCT or FEW with further TAF Cycles,
no impacts significant enough to justify extra lines to cover for
the reduction in high clouds.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

..Corrected spacing in Climate Section...

DISCUSSION...A strong ridge set up off the California coast
continues to place the region under northwesterly to northerly
flow the rest of the week. Lee side troughing will develop
Thanksgiving Day and Friday, which will help bring downsloping
flow into the area and aid with a warming trend. As shown in the
climate section below, near record to record high temperatures may
occur on Friday. An approaching dry cold front on Friday could
bring breezy conditions, but the strongest low level winds may be
south of the region. After the cold front passes, high
temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler on Saturday before
another warming trend starts. The strong ridge across the west is
expected to migrate east across the area, helping establish a
warming trend with near record high temperatures possible once
more on Monday. The pattern could potentially shift starting
Tuesday next week with another approaching weather system and
associated cold front. At present, have opted not to forecast any
precipitation with this system late Tuesday into Wednesday as,
regardless of which model that is followed, we will be either dry
slotted or the system will be moisture starved.

Bieda

FIRE WEATHER...Approaching cold fronts on Friday and Monday may
aid in the development of lee side troughs that could bring brief
elevated fire weather conditions to the western Panhandles.
Twenty foot winds could potentially approach 15 mph due to an
approaching front on Friday which, in combination with relative
humidities around 15 to 20 percent, could result in the western
Panhandles experiencing elevated fire weather conditions. Twenty
foot winds next Monday may struggle to reach elevated criteria,
though most of the region could see minimum relative humidity
values between 15 to 20 percent. Beyond those two days, the rest
of the forecast period should not see fire weather concerns.

Bieda

CLIMATE...Near record to record high temperatures are presently
forecasted across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on Friday (Nov
24). Provided below are the climate sites which could set new
records:

Amarillo: Nov 24th high temp record 78 (1981), forecast is 79
Borger: Nov 24th high temp record is 80 (1981), forecast is 80
Dalhart: Nov 24th high temp record is 78 (1990), forecast is 79

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                41  72  45  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  73  44  77  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              40  72  42  76  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  44  73  48  80  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              39  73  43  79  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  39  73  44  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               40  75  45  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 40  72  40  79  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  41  72  43  77  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                39  73  43  80  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                39  73  45  79  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   42  72  46  78  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                37  74  44  81  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              36  75  44  83  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/98



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