Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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599
FXUS61 KBTV 230614
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
214 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring a few lingering showers overnight and a
westerly wind shift. Quieter, cooler and drier weather
conditions return for Wednesday and through the rest of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1031 PM EDT Tuesday...Severe thunderstorms have cleared
the region to the east and we have cancelled the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch. Trailing cold front east of Lake Ontario
will potentially bring isold/sct -SHRA overnight, with a few
rumbles of thunder possible through 06-07Z. Thereafter, clearing
trend and westerly wind shift areawide. Isold additional
showers are possible Wednesday as trailing upper level trough
makes its way ewd across the North Country. Will be noticeably
drier with dewpoints falling into the low-mid 50s by Wednesday
morning. Likewise, temperatures on Wednesday will be about 10
degrees cooler than Tuesday, much closer to seasonal normals
(mid- upr 70s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Tuesday...Continued 500mb cyclonic flow aloft,
aided by orographic lift will keep some clouds and possible
showers in the forecast in the short term, especially on
Thursday. Decreasing PWATs in northwest surface flow will limit
available moisture, hence only slight chance PoPs at this
point. Temperatures throughout the period will be slightly
cooler than normal with the upper level trough overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 259 PM EDT Tuesday...The upper level trough continues
overhead through the weekend with the upper level ridge moving
in early next week. Surface high pressure looks to hold strong
through most of the period. Cool and dry conditions will
dominate the region through the time period. The exception may
be Sunday when medium range models hint at a slight weakening in
the surface pressure field coinciding with a weak vort lobe
swinging across the region. For now will keep pops at slight
chance or less. Temperatures will continue slightly below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Scattered showers continue for the next
several hours as the cold front moves across the North Country.
Winds shift SW-WSW behind the front with brief period of gusts
around 15-20kts. Generally VFR conditions prevail with exception
of MVFR cigs at KRUT and KSLK. Expect KMSS and KMPV to see
intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions as well and have included
TEMPOs this morning.

As daybreak nears, drier conditions settle in behind the cold
front. Winds generally out of the SW at 8-13kts with gusts
developing between 12Z-15Z. VFR conditions and gusty winds
continue throughout the day Wednesday. After sunset, winds
subside to 4-8kts for Wednesday evening.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...NRR
LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...KGM



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