Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 011745
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
145 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST VERMONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN OCCURS BY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER MORE SEASONABLE EARLY FALL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HAVE ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS UP AND DOWN
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON WHICH AREAS WERE
GOING TO SEE SUNSHINE AND WHICH AREAS WERE GOING TO REMAIN IN
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FAR SOUTH AND
EAST TO COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS UPPER H5 LOW EXITS OFFSHORE
TOWARD THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER...WE`LL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER OUR
GRUNGY/MOIST AIRMASS WITH VERY LIGHT BL FLOW AND NO REAL MECHANISM
(WIND OR OTHERWISE) TO AID IN SCOURING VARIABLE/LOW CLOUD COVER
OUT OF OUR REGION. THUS EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR NIGHT TO TONIGHT...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS WE LIKE TO SAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE WHERE
PARTIAL CLEARING IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

THEREAFTER (THU/FRI)...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS OVERALL CONTROL OF
REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MID AND UPPER FLOW SLOWLY
AMPLIFIES AND DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. PBL DRYING PROCESSES FINALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MID TO UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND SKIES TREND CLR/PTLY
CLOUDY IN MOST SPOTS. A QUICK LOOK AT MODEL-AVERAGED 18Z 925-850
MB THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SOME
4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY FALL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE ON BOTH DAYS AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ALSO
A GOOD BET IN FAVORED LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM PRIOR DAYS. GLOBAL SUITE OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PORTEND A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND...TRANSITIONING FROM MEAN
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO ONE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEGATIVE AO TELECONNECTION PATTERN. AFTER A
SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT/SAT NIGHT...EXPECT A RETURN TO AT OR
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

POTENT 500 MB CYCLONE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT WITH ACCOMPANYING WELL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SAT/SAT NIGHT. A SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH HOW AMPLIFIED THE
PATTERN IS. 00Z/01 GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FROPA COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING WITH THE ECMWF. SHAPING
UP TO BE A BREEZY FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WIND FIELDS
INCREASE MARKEDLY /BY 12Z SATURDAY 850 MB WINDS NEAR 60 KTS PER
THE GFS/. COULD SEE BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN
SPOTS ON SAT IF BETTER MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE. STRONG
DYNAMICS/FRONTAL FORCING ALSO OFFERS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR A FINE
LINE OF AT LEAST MODERATE RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SIMILAR TO
PRIOR FORECAST...I`VE SHOWN HIGH LIKELY POPS SAT FOR NORTHERN NY
AND SPREADING INTO VT SAT AFTN/EVE. HIGHS SATURDAY UNLIKELY TO
CLIMB MUCH MORE THAN UPPER 50S/MID-60S UNDER OVERCAST. THERMAL
PROFILES COOL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT /925 MB TEMPS +3 TO +5C BY
12Z SUN/ WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN VT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS (PRIMARILY FROM
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS). HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL -
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IN THE MEAN
CYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS AN INCREASE IN POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WAA
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALLOWS TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...ANOTHER CHALLENGING AVIATION FCST WITH
REGARDS TO LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG/BR THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HRS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...FOLLOWED BY PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONDITIONS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS.
1ST WL CONT IFR AT BTV THRU 20Z...ASSOCIATED WITH BLOCKED FLW AND
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS...AIDING IN LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE EAST
OF THE CPV. ELSEWHERE...MIXING HAS OCCURRED AND CIGS HAVE GONE TO
MVFR AT PBG/MPV AND MSS WITH VFR AT RUT/SLK. THINKING VFR/MVFR WL
PREVAIL THRU 00Z...THEN FOG/BR WL QUICKLY DEVELOP AT SLK AFT
SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...LLVL JET OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WL LIMIT FOG/BR POTENTIAL THRU 04Z...THEN JET SLACKENS WITH IFR
CIGS OR VIS LIKELY AT BTV/MSS/MPV AND PBG. THESE CONDITIONS WL
PREVAIL THRU 14Z THURSDAY...BEFORE A SLOW IMPROVING TREND. AT
RUTLAND...SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLW OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP CIGS AT
MVFR LEVELS WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TWD SUNRISE. GIVEN EXPECTED
MOISTURE SOUNDINGS...AREAS OF DRIZZLE WL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CPV...WHERE LLVL
FLW ACRS LAKE CHAMPLAIN WL HELP ENHANCE MOISTURE FIELDS. SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT SUSTAIN WINDS BTWN 10-14 KNTS FROM THE NE AT MSS THIS
AFTN...BEFORE DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS ON THURS AFTN...WITH FOG/BR
POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MPV. A STRONG
COLD FRNT WL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...WITH A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH AREAS OF LLVL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LINGER AT SLK/MPV ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...TABER






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