Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Flooding concerns will continue across the North Country today
with several rivers currently above flood stage and a number of
rivers continuing to rise. Otherwise the only weather will be
some lingering snow showers...especially in the mountains. High
temperatures will generally be in the 30s to around 40. Warmer
weather is expected on Monday with highs generally in the 40s.
Even warmer conditions are expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
along with increasing chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 626 AM EST Sunday...Overall forecast in good shape with
no changes needed at this time. Flood Watch continues through
700 pm tonight. Several rivers in flood right now and several
rivers continue to rise early this morning. Thus the potential
for more flooding will continue. The good news is weather should
not be a factor today to further increase the flood potential.
Colder air aloft will stop any snowmelt and only scattered snow
showers are expected today...so additional precipitation amounts
will be minimal. High temperatures today will generally be in
the 30s. The snow showers will come to an end tonight but
developing southerly flow in the low levels will limit cooling
overnight and lows should generally be in the upper teens to
upper 20s with some lower 30s in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Warming trend begins on Monday and
continues right into Tuesday. Highs will be in the 40s on Monday
and in the 40s to around 50 on Tuesday. Other than some light
showers in the mountains on Monday...not really expecting much
in the way of precipitation. Chances will increase beginning
Tuesday as flow aloft backs to the southwest ahead of an
approaching upper level trough of low pressure. Temperatures
will be warm enough on Tuesday for the precipitation to be in
the form of rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Extended forecast looks similar to
yesterday with continued southwest flow aloft Tuesday night into
Thursday morning. Moisture and dynamic support increases during
this time period in advance of the approaching trough.
Precipitation should become fairly widespread during this time
period and temperatures will remain warm enough for the
precipitation to be in the form of rain. At this time Wednesday
looks to be the day with the most rainfall...but heavy rain is
not expected at this time. Despite the clouds and precipitation
on Wednesday...highs will be in the 50s and a few spots could
hit 60. A transition will take place on Thursday as the upper
trough moves east of the area and more pronounced northwest flow
aloft develops on the backside of the upper trough. This will
allow for colder and drier weather to move back into the region
by the weekend and we may actually see below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...Scattered snow showers will exist through
about 18z today...but visibilities will be VFR through the
entire period. Ceilings will be a mix of MVFR and VFR through
about 00z before areal coverage of clouds decreasing and any
ceilings will generally be VFR. Gusty west winds will continue
through about 00z with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range. Winds
taper off after 00z and become more southwest at speeds of 10
knots or less.

Outlook 06Z Monday through Thursday...

12Z Monday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions.

12Z Tuesday - 00Z Friday...Conditions will trend toward MVFR/IFR
by 00z Wednesday and then remain in those categories for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 351 AM EST Sunday...Several rivers in flood and several
are continuing to rise and/or are cresting. No more
contributions from snowmelt and rainfall are expected as colder
air is helping to end the snowmelt and only scattered snow
showers are expected today. Nevertheless...the threat for
flooding will continue and the flood watch remains in place. And
of course ice jams are possible anywhere there is a
constriction in the river such as a bend or bridge abutment to
stop ice movement and potentially create more flooding. River
crests on rivers that are in flood will likely be occurring
around midday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through this evening for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Evenson
HYDROLOGY...Evenson


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