Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
149 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD INTO VERMONT...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 139 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST VERMONT
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
STILL POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO CHANGES
MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY TRENDS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD AND IS BRIDGED ALOFT BY CYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN MEAN ERN CONUS LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WILL STILL ADVERTISE
JUST AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED WITH SUCH DRY LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND THE LARGER VALLEYS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD RANGING
THROUGH THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
SEASONABLY COOL FROM 45 TO 55 ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 329 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THERE`S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY AMONG 00Z/23 GUIDANCE SUITE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WELL
SPECIFIED MID- TROPOSPHERIC REGIME ADVERTISED IN SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES FEATURES PHASING OF A LARGE NORTHEASTERN NOAM UPPER LOW
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THAT RESULTS IN
WESTWARD RETROGRESSION OF MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT AND MAINTAINS
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN A LIKELY SLOW-EVOLVING PATTERN THE 00Z GFS
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST IN ITS DEPICTION OF EJECTING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THEREFORE...PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TOWARD THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WX HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/PSBL STORMS - THOUGH NOTHING THAT SEEMS
TO BE A WASHOUT ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY - AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPS.

I CARRIED A TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LEFTOVER DIURNAL SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER/MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TRENDING
DRY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOK TO
BE UNSETTLED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SHOWN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH
RETROGRADES WESTWARD...LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED INSTABILITY OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT FEEL CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD
BE LOWER EACH DAY GOING FORWARD AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT GETS
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...HAVE TIMED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS...2-3 HRS
AT A TIME. ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE AND MORE LIMITED THREAT OF HAIL. SOUTH WINDS 10-12 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-22 KTS...BUT NOTABLE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS LOOK TO
DROP OFF SOME THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...THOUGH INDICATIONS FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT POST-
FRONTAL OBS ACROSS ON/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STILL SUGGEST LOWER
CEILINGS TO LINGER WELL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GREATER
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...THEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITY IN
FOG 06-12Z FOR MPV AND SLK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND WINDS
PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z THU - MON...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG/MIST AT MPV AND SLK
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1131 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAINLY NORTH OF A PLATTSBURGH-SAINT
ALBANS LINE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS
LIGHTNING. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...NEILES/LOCONTO
MARINE...WGH







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.