Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 220723
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry
weather today and Monday as high pressure remains over the area.
Eventually a large upper level trough of low pressure will start
to approach the area Monday night and then move across the North
Country Tuesday into Wednesday. As a result...clouds and
precipitation chances will be increasing with fairly widespread
rain expected Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Sunday...Expecting only high level clouds
across the area today which should result in mostly sunny skies.
Low level temperatures...925/850 mb...will be a little warmer
than yesterday and thus looking at highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s...which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Looking at another night tonight of wide ranging temperatures
with lows anywhere from the upper 30s in the mountains to mid
50s in the larger valleys...and 40s everywhere else. Should
start to see a little better chance for fog over eastern
Vermont.

On Monday...mid and high level moisture will start to be a
little thicker and this should keep highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s...which is still well above normal. Not looking for
any precipitation during the day...but lower level moisture
should start working into parts of eastern Vermont as the day
progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Signs of change will be in the air by
Monday night as background southerly flow and clouds increase
ahead of a deep, neutrally tilted upper trough and attendant
surface front. Model trajectories indicate Atlantic, maritime
moisture advecting northward into the eastern half of the
forecast area overnight where some spotty very light showers or
drizzle will be possible under increasingly cloudy skies.
Showers will also encroach into western counties later at night
as deeper moisture associated with aforementioned upper trough
advances eastward. Low temperatures to remain quite mild from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

By Tuesday the upper trough and front trundle slowly east with
a deep subtropical moisture plume advecting northward from the
Bahamas (pwats to 1.5 inches) and widespread showers/steadier
rain advancing west to east over time. Temperatures will be
somewhat tricky given clouds, maritime airmass trajectories and
very mild 925-850 mb southerly flow. Blended guidance supports
values in the mid 60s to lower 70s and at this point I`m in no
position to argue given such anomalous recent warmth. Speaking
of the winds, they`ll likely trend quite gusty through the
morning and early afternoon ahead of the primary rain shield and
I wouldn`t be surprised to see solid 25 to 35 mph gusts from
the south with locally higher values in the Champlain Valley to
near 40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...Steadier rain and the surface front
will continue to advance slowly east into Tuesday night,
becoming more focused across eastern counties into the late
night hours as temperatures hold in the 50s east and in the
upper 40s to around 50 west.

Uncertainty begins to arise by Wednesday into Thursday as strong
energy diving from the northern plains into the base of the
mean upper trough spawns cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary
to our south across the Mid Atlantic states. This morning`s GFS
and ECMWF show varying ideas on how this will occur, but in
essence additional rainfall will be possible during this period,
especially across the eastern half of the area as the mean
geostrophic flow backs to southeasterly ahead of the surface
wave and now negatively tilted upper trough. With the mean
surface frontal position to our immediate east high temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday, and in
the 50s for Thursday as the surface wave passes.

Looking further out it looks at this point that fair/dry weather
will likely return by weeks end as western Atlantic high
pressure becomes re-established, albeit briefly for Friday into
Saturday. Temperatures should respond by moderating into the
upper 50s to mid 60s under a lighter wind regime.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with only high level clouds expected. Winds will
generally be less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy FG over easter Vermont.
Monday: VFR. Patchy FG.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Likely RA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.

MPV is not transmitting due to a communications outage. FAA is
aware of the problem. We do not have an estimated return to
service.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Evenson
EQUIPMENT...BTV


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