Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 042059
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 459 PM EDT TUESDAY...INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS ALSO DECREASING.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWS ALBANY AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER...ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT WE CAN GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE
WATCH AS OF 500 PM. HAVE REMOVED ENHANCED WORDING FROM THE
FORECAST AND TAPERED PRECIPITATION DOWN INTO THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 352 PM EDT TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. EXPECT RATHER NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH
HIGHEST POPS NORTH. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN...AND WITH COOL POOL ALOFT AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS DURING
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ZONES AS COOL
POOL ALOFT AND UPPER TROUGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ONCE AGAIN WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH A
SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO CYCLONIC
FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY NOT BE A CONCERN TO US AND THAT IS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
FRI/SAT WANTING TO MAKE A MOVE NNE TOWARD SE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT
FOR NOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NOT TO THREATEN AREA. HOWEVER...MID-
LEVEL TROFINESS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THIS WEEK DIMINISHES A TAD FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND
WITH A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN A RETURN TO
CYCLONIC FLOE NE NOAM TROFINESS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIGHT NOW...FRI AND SAT LOOK DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE WITH MAX T
IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR PREDOMINATES...BUT EXPECT BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IN SCT THUNDERSTORMS THRU 00Z
WED. SHOWERS/STORMS END BY EVENING WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 KTS BY EVENING.

VFR WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED -SHRA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE WITH MVFR-IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV-KSLK BETWEEN 07-12Z.

SCT -SHRA IN DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY IN NY AFT 15Z WED.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z WEDNESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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