Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1038 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSITY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY COASTLINE LATE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
MOVES NORTH IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM TO THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...WILL RESULT IN SOME DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE SNOWFALL
WILL END FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EST MONDAY...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH MOST
SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROCEEDING AS EXPECTED EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/SRN NJ...WITH WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF
EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY. RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM
IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW
CONTINUES NNEWD TO NEAR THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BY 12Z TUESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. DELAYED ONSET OF SNOW BY SEVERAL HOURS
DURING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND LOWERED SNOW AMTS THRU 12Z.
TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MID-UPPER CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WELL NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH 08Z WITH DRY PBL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY
WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
N-NNE...REACHING 10-15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK...HIGHEST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

NO SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL VERMONT THRU AT LEAST 06Z. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE STEADY LIGHT SNOW ADVANCE INTO RUTLAND/WINDSOR/ORANGE
COUNTIES...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND CONTINUED DRY
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH
OVERCAST CONDITIONS...AND LOOKING AT LOW GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WILL SEE SOME LOW WIND CHILLS DEVELOP DURING
THE PRE- DAWN HOURS WITH THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. WILL
SEE SOME WIND CHILL READINGS 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW...AND LOCALLY
APPROACHING 20 BELOW IN THE IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST MONDAY...STEADY SNOW WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTH
AND WEST ACROSS VERMONT DURING TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP GRADIENT IN TOTAL SNOWFALL AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE QPF WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOW FAR EAST THAT GRADIENT ENDS UP BEING AT THE
MOMENT IS A TRICKY DECISION. THE HIRES WINDOWS SHOW THE SNOW VS NO
SNOW LINE BEING MUCH CLOSER TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHEREAS THE
NEWEST ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL INCREASE QPF AND SLIDING THAT
PRECIP SHIELD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND BRING
IN NEARLY 8/10THS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION. I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM/HPC WITH SOME SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO THE LATEST WRF RUNS. THE SHADOWING OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM THAT WAS INITIALLY A CONCERN IS NOW BECOMING
LESS OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE WINDS NOW SHIFTING MORE NORTHEAST AT
850 VERSUS EAST. I TRENDED THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM BACK JUST A BIT
BECAUSE THERE STILL COULD BE SOME MINOR SHADOWING. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL RANGE FROM 4-8. IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE IN THE 2-5 INCH
RANGE.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WILL STAY COLD IN THE MID
TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT WILL ENABLE DRY FLUFFY SNOW TO FALL
COMPARED TO THE WET HEAVY SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THIS SNOWFALL EXPECT
THAT POWER OUTAGES WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THAT WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
AN HOUR IN THE MORNING TOMORROW TRAVEL WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED
AND THERE WILL BE DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THOUGH WITH ONLY HIGHS IN THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT BRING SNOW INTO THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST. ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE
ADIRONDACKS AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...LEADING TO LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE.
ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WOUL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS
A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HAVE OPTED TO GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS
THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST IN DEVELOPING LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES FOR MOST TERMINALS BUT MSS.

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING LIGHT ECHOES/INFERRED LIGHT SNOW
ON COMPOSITE RADAR AT BAY. GREATEST IMPACT FROM AN AVIATION
PERSPECTIVE ISN`T UNTIL AFTER 09Z AS LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT
SNOW BEGINS AT RUT AROUND 09Z WITH INITIAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 1
TO 1.5 SM, THOUGH NOT SPREADING INTO BTV UNTIL AROUND 14Z. EXPECT
A PERIOD OF 1/2 SM MODERATE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE VT TERMINALS
INTO TUESDAY AS WESTERN FRINGE OF SNOW BANDING LIFTS NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-17Z. DURATION OF THIS SNOW BAND SHORTENS WITH
WESTWARD/NORTHWEST EXTENT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT MSS AS LIGHT SNOW
IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT IN BEFORE 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-10 KTS (EXCEPT NORTHEAST
AT 15 KTS AT MSS DUE FAVORED CHANNELING). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY AT RUT
AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM
DEEPENING STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT
TERMINALS AND KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR. ALSO EXPECTING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KMSS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV


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