Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 181937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN
FROM CANADA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT...THUS
EXPECT WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE FINALLY ERODING. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS FROM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL COMBINE WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TO CREATE FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS. FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...EXCEPT GRAND ISLE COUNTY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
VERMONT. MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD WILL BE FROM 1AM TO 8AM
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS QUICKLY COME
TO AN END IN THE MORNING AND SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS FROM FULL
SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS HIGHS WILL BE WARMER
THAN THURSDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS CHANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR THAT MATTER AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT REALLY LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EDT THURSDAY...12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE BIG PICTURE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, AND BE PRETTY MUCH
DONE WITH BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. STILL HAVE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION WITH A COUPLE OF MINOR SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS WOULD MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN THOSE DAYS
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THEN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (AND
PROBABLY INTO THE WEEKEND) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE
SURFACE AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS (AKA
"RIDGE-O-SAURUS"). "WARM" SUNDAY, THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY. STILL WANT
MORE GORY DETAILS? WELL, KEEP READING ON MY FRIENDS...

SUNDAY: BELIEF HERE IS THAT THE SLOWER GFS IS BETTER ON TIMING.
MAKES SENSE WITH THE EXPECTED DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND POSSIBLY A
HYBRID LOW PASSING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ACTING TO SLOW THINGS
DOWN A BIT. THINK THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NY WILL
BE IN THE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON, WHILE VERMONT IS MORE EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG SOUTHERLY JET
STILL IN PLACE, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR SOME SURFACE GUSTS TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE & CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS PRIOR TO
THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S AND 70S (ESPECIALLY VERMONT
WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN). GFS, NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND. THOUGH IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED
T-STORM FORMS, AT THIS POINT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SHOWERS END AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. PROBABLY
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WITH FLOW FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO REMAIN RATHER
CLOUDY. CAN`T RULE OUT SPOT SHOWERS EITHER DAY AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH. KEPT WITH THE MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY WARM -- THOUGH EVEN SHORT CLEARING
BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY. PLAYED IT MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BOTH NIGHTS AND HAVE LOTS OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE REGION. COULD VERY WELL HAVE A MUCH BIGGER SPREAD.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: PRETTY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (AT LEAST 1035MB)
MOVES IN. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WHAT
LOOKS LIKE THE START OF A BLOCKING HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD MEAN PRETTY MUCH WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE. SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW WARM IT WILL BE BOTH DAYS. EURO INDICATES 925MB TEMPERATURES AT
10C WEDNESDAY UP TO 12C THURSDAY -- WHICH WOULD MEAN HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY TO 70S THURSDAY. GFS IS MUCH COLDER
WEDNESDAY (3C @ 925MB) AND THEN 10C ON THURSDAY.  OF LATE, THE GFS
IS DOING BETTER WITH THESE 925MB TEMPERATURES, SO HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS. ANTICIPATE HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MID/UPPER 60S THURSDAY. COOL OVERNIGHT, PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY WHILE WARMING
SOME MORE FOR THAT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN
ITS WAKE IS A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES IN
THE 2000-4000FT RANGE. SO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST, BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING BREAKS DEVELOPING. THUS EXPECT BY 22Z VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE EVERYWHERE. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING. UNLIKE OTHER NIGHTS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF FOG.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DOWN IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY (SO IF
WE DID A TAF FOR SPRINGFIELD/VSF, IT WOULD SHOW IFR), BUT FOR OUR
OFFICIAL TAF SITES, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. JUST FROST. FRIDAY WILL
BE VFR THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AS WELL.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
IFR IN LATE NIGHT FOG MAINLY FOR KSLK AND KMPV. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25KT
POSSIBLE. LLWS ALSO A POSSIBILITY DUE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

12Z MONDAY ONWARD...LIKELY VFR, THOUGH A MIX OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 150 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING SEPT 19TH. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED BLAST OF CHILLY AIR, WE MAY BE APPROACHING RECORDS AT
SOME LOCATIONS.

LOCATION...............RECORD...YEAR
MT MANSFIELD (MMNV1)...24F      1979
RUTLAND (RUTV1)........27F      1990
MONTPELIER (MPV).......29F      1959
ST JOHNSBURY (SJBV1)...29F      1943
MASSENA (MSS)..........30F      2008
BURLINGTON (BTV).......32F      1959

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-016>018.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ002-005-009-
     011-012-019.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH








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