Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271130
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH QUIET AND COLD WEATHER.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 629 AM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA...ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...AND A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE PLANS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST. SNOWFALL WILL
BE LIGHT WITH BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY FALLING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EST FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND IT WILL BE
FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY HOWEVER...AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE JUST A BIT
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

DRY AND A BIT COLDER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS THEN
QUICKLY RETURNING ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LOW WILL TAKE A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER AIR TO STREAM INTO
FORECAST AREA. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND +4C ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO
TRANSITION TO A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO AROUND .75 INCHES...IT IS SHAPING UP AS A MODERATE
PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH BEST FORCING INDICATED TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERRUNNING ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
LOW DEPARTS TOP THE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS REGION
AND TEMPS TURN COLDER ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TODAY
WITH SKIES TRENDING TO SKC BY 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS WEST TO
NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 KTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY-18Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z SUNDAY-00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS WITH SNOW
LIKELY BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.

00Z TUESDAY-18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z TUESDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR AS WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS


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