Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290539
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
139 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER COOLER WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER
THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED
DOWN WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY NOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
PWATS WILL BE HIGH AS A FEED OFF THE GULF STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MODEST LAPSE RATES
THOUGH...PRETTY WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH SOME CAPE DOES SHOW UP
ON THE SREF AND NAM. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA...FEEL STRONGER STORMS MAY COINCIDE AND REMAIN NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
REMAINS THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LINE OF THINKING
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VERMONT AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
ALIGNED IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL VERMONT. NEARLY ALL
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABILIZED
BEHIND THE FRONT SO THE DECENT SHEAR OVER CANADA WILL ALL BE WELL
NORTH OF ANY INSTABILITY.

AFTER THE LINGERING SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO SEE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
BY WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 80S IN THE VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FROST AS
TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S TO UPPER 30S. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST DOESN`T INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FROST BECAUSE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE 36 DEGREES ON MONDAY. FROM THERE WE WILL SEE THE
GRADUAL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...1028MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BUILDING INTO OUR TAF SITES WITH CLRING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG/BR TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL
RECENTLY...LIKE SLK. HAVE MENTION VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
AND VIS AROUND 1/4SM THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
FOG AT MPV...WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING...BUT GIVEN DRYING ALOFT
PER WATER VAPOR...THINKING FOG/BR WILL DEVELOP BTWN 07-08Z.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MSS WITH MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR IN FOG/BR AT PBG/BTV/RUT BTWN 07-11Z. OTHERWISE...FOG/BR
WILL LIFT BTWN 11Z-13Z THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV BTWN 07-11Z SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTN...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z SUNDAY. AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY IN AND AROUND ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTN. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO
LOWER VIS BTWN 1-3SM IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF IFR
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 139 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE AUTOMATED SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM (ASOS) AT SAINT JOHNSBURY VERMONT (1V4) IS NOT CURRENTLY
REPORTING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS LINE ISSUE. NO ESTIMATE IS
AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE 1V4 ASOS COMMUNICATIONS LINE
WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...WGH



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