Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT RISE TO MORE TYPICAL MID
SUMMER WARMTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DIURNAL CUMULUS.
OTHERWISE ISOLATED FOG ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS. THE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION IS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA. HOWEVER...00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD AND FASTER WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A CONSENSUS CLIPPING AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH A LARGE
AREA OF QPF OVER AN INCH EXTENDING INTO ALLEGANY COUNTY. SUSPECT
ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE MORE IN LINE WITH NAM/RGEM
QPF DEPICTIONS. AS A RESULT WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING DECENT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BUT THESE WILL BE LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE CLOUDS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...WITH MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE AT THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE EDGING INTO A DRIER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT BRING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS FAR NORTH NOR AS FAST AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE
INDICATING...BUT WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...WITH
SOME SBCAPES VALUES NEARING 500 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. HERE WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. OTHERWISE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SOME CLEARING TO THE CLOUDS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AS WELL EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE. LOOK FOR HIGHS NEAR 80F SUNDAY...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 60S
NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A FINE END TO THE WEEKEND AND A DRY START TO THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...THE TREND FOR NEXT WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN UNSETTLED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST...GIVING WAY TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THAT WILL PLACE THE GREAT LAKES IN THE BULLSEYE FOR
SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
OPEN THE WAY TO MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...MARKING A RETURN TO A MUGGIER...MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S...PERHAPS THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE MAY.

THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SUBJECT TO THE TIMING OF THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS
THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION. AT THIS POINT WHILE THE MODELS
AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UNSETTLED TREND...TIMING ISSUES
ABOUND AND THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE THIS FAR OUT IS TO STICK WITH
BROADBRUSHED CHANCE POPS AND A WARMER TREND IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LOCAL IFR TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
SIGNIFICANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD AT JHW WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FEW-
SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED
SHOWER/ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER NEAR JHW LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES WITH
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON MOST DAYS WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS



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