Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240226
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE
EARLY FALL WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY SHRINKING LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF CLOUD IS ALONG AN
OLD WASHING OUT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...WITH A LAYER OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ONGOING DRYING AND A LOSS OF
THE REMAINING WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEFUNCT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE REST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS MAINE LATER
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SET UP A SUBTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. DESPITE THE SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH...EXPECT TYPICAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG
ELSEWHERE...HOWEVER THE SUBTLE SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP
SUPPRESS THIS TO SOME DEGREE. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND LOW TO MID 40S IN THE COOL VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG
HILL REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH WILL SET UP MODEST DOWNSLOPING...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURE EVENTUALLY PROMPTING A LATE SEASON LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SPREADING
RAIN NORTHWARDS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE SURFACE/MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL LIKELY CLIP THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO BUMP UP LOWS A COUPLE
OF DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE 50S...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S. IN ADDITION...THE
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO RETARD FOG FORMATION IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WHILE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY HAVE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS
TO START THE DAY THURSDAY MORNING...SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA...TAKING WITH
IT ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND YIELDING STARLIT SKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO BRINGING A RETURN OF FOG TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. FAIR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ENVELOPS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH PERSISTENT
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CAPITAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH CONTINUING TO ASSERT ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FLATTENED OUT BY A 120+KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
THE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOOKING AT MONDAY...WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE EXACT
DETAILS...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS IN TURN WILL SEND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SCURRYING INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM WESTERN ONTARIO WHILE PUSHING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS...BUT
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A
CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 5-6K FEET THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT ALONG A WASHING OUT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL IFR. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW FOR A FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK SHOULD
LIMIT TIME AND INTENSITY OF FOG AT THE HILLTOP KJHW AIRFIELD.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF VFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS MAY THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIVERGENCE SPREAD NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED IFR IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING A NEUTRAL TO WEAK
ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL MONTHS. A SUITE OF
THEIR DYNAMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK EL NINO
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE MONTHS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WINTER. THIS COULD VERY WELL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON WEATHER
FOR OUR REGION.

WHILE THE PHASE OF THE ENSO EVENT (EL NINO VERSUS LA NINA) IS
IMPORTANT TO WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS FOUND A MODERATE TO STRONG CORRELATION BETWEEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE ENSO EVENT AND THE TREND IN TEMPERATURES. SOME
OF THE `WARMEST` WINTER MONTHS (AS DEFINED BY AVERAGE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE) HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT EL
NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS...WHILE THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE FOR HARSH
WINTERS.

SINCE 1950...18 OF THE TOP 20 `COLDEST` WINTERS ACROSS OUR REGION
HAVE TAKEN PLACE DURING A WEAK TO NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE TELECONNECTION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED JET STREAM
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS FREQUENT
INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR AND CAN BE REINFORCED BY A WINTER THAT
FEATURES RIDGING ACROSS GREENLAND. SUPPORTING THIS ARGUMENT IS
ANOTHER INTERESTING SET OF STATISTICS. SINCE 1950...WE HAVE HAD
THREE WINTERS WHERE ALL FIVE WINTER MONTHS (NOV-MARCH) HAVE AVERAGED
BELOW NORMAL...AND FIVE WINTERS WHERE FOUR OF THE FIVE MONTHS WERE
BELOW NORMAL...ALL OF WHICH OCCURRED DURING WEAK ENSO EVENTS.

WHILE THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY ANY MEANS FOR A
SECOND STRAIGHT HARSH WINTER...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE PATTERN DOES
FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. ONE HAS TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN USING JUST ONE HEMISPHERIC
PATTERN IN MAKING LONG RANGE FORECASTING THOUGH. FOR EXAMPLE...A
PERSISTENT ICELANDIC LOW COULD HELP TO FLATTEN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THEREBY NEGATE A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE
PACIFIC.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...RSH




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.