Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251052
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
652 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north late this afternoon
adn dominate the weather into Thur morning. A pre-frontal trough
may spread showers in Thursday morning with the main cold front
moving across the state Thursday evening with showers and
possibly thunderstorms across the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 am update...
Hv boosted pops to isold showers this mrng for far wrn zones as
area of showers is mvg thru srn Maine at this hr assoc with
compact upr lvl wave. Rmvd patchy fog fm Downeast as nothing has
dvlpd. All else rmns on track so no other chgs needed.

Prev discussion blo...
1006mb sfc low south of Yarmouth Nova Scotia as of 06z and wl
continue to pull away fm the region this mrng. Pcpn has pretty
much come to an end acrs CWA and hv decreased pops for the rmndr
of tda. Showers located up ovr Adirondacks of NY mainly assoc
with inverted trof in combo with upr low spinning into northern
New England. Inverted trof axis wl weaken in place this mrng
thus hv not included isold showers ovr wrn zones for upstream
pcpn. Upr trof wl eject ovr CWA this mrng into aftn hrs but with
dry air at mid and low-lvls do not expect measurable pcpn to
fall.

Sfc hipres currently located srn Quebec and Ontario wl begin to
build into nrn Maine this aftn. This wl allow clds to bcm sunny in
the St. John Vly by mid-aftn, slowly pushing south fm there. Expect
all areas wl be moclr this evng tho a thin cirrus deck may be
present ovr Downeast until close to midnight. Given clr skies and
recent rainfall ovr srn areas, patchy fog may dvlp in Downeast late
tonight thru 12z.

Max temps tda wl be warmest acrs the north where clrng skies this
aftn wl allow diurnal htg to mix down warm H9 temps, yielding highs
in the l/m 70s. Further to the south expect clds to keep temps
cooler in the m/u 60s. Ovrngt mins settle out much blo normal with
m/u 40s acrs the north to arnd 50 for Downeast zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build south of the region on
Wednesday, leading to a dry day with increasing afternoon
clouds. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with the
coast staying a little cooler.

The focus then turns to an approaching cold front and its preceding
prefrontal trough. Flow will turn to the south southwest ahead of
these features, allowing moisture to return northward. As such,
Wednesday night will have a more humid feel as dewpoints rise
through the 50s. Showers associated with the trough will move into
northwestern maine early Thursday morning. They will then gradually
shift southeast through the day as the trough does the same.
Instability is not looking all that impressive as SB CAPEs are
progged to stay below 900 J/kg. This will still be enough to spark a
few thunderstorms though, mainly across the north. The front itself
will move into the North Woods from Quebec late in the day. Daytime
highs will be in the 70s for interior locations, while the coast
will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front will make its way across the
state Thursday night. There are still some significant
differences between the long range models thereafter. The GFS
continues to clear the front through the region by Friday
morning, allowing high pressure to build in, keeping the weather
dry Friday through Saturday. The ECMWF, meanwhile, moves the
front just offshore and moves low pressure along it, bringing
the system across central New England and along the Maine coast.
This would bring a swath of rain to the southern 2/3 of the
state Friday into Saturday. The Canadian NH is somewhat between
these two solutions, developing the low but keeping it shunted
far enough south to keep our forecast area dry. Given these
continuing differences, have stayed close to a model blend and
slight chance/low chance PoPs for the end of the week. It does
look like at least Sunday and Monday will be dry, though note
that the GFS tries to produce a few showers in Sunday afternoon
with a shortwave rotating around the back of the upper low. The
forecast has a warming trend through the weekend, though if the
ECMWF is correct, Friday and Saturday will likely be cooler than
currently indicated.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours for all terminals with exception of
BHB. At BHB expect MVFR cig this mrng before rising to MVFR
after 15z. Skies will clear at all sites after 00z with
potential IFR vsby restrictions at BHB between 06z and 10z Wed.

SHORT TERM: VFR  conditions will prevail 12z Wed to 06z Thu.
Showers associated with an approaching cold front will move from
northwest to southeast thereafter; MVFR conditions are likely
in any precipitation. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will come to an end by 06z
Fri. However, additional rain is possible Friday and friday
night, particularly for the southern terminals. Saturday should
be dry with VFR prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will flirt with SCA criteria very early this
morning, possibly gusting as high as 23kts as low pressure
passes south of Nova Scotia. Seas will remain below 5ft through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated through late week. High
pressure will cross the waters Wednesday and Wednesday night, keeping
conditions below SCA levels. Southwest winds will increase Thursday
ahead of an approaching cold front, causing seas to build to around
4 feet, but conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria.
Both winds and seas will subside Thursday night into Friday once the
front crosses the region.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...Hastings
Long Term...Hastings
Aviation...Farrar/Hastings
Marine...Farrar/Hastings



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