Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 301000
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE FORMATION OF
FOG. MEANWHILE, NORTHERN MAINE IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
RIVER VALLEY FOG EVIDENT ON LOCAL WEBCAMS. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER
AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE
PINE TREE STATE TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER, SO THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE
LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE ONLY CONCERN
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY
ANYWHERE THAT GETS RAIN TODAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50 IN THE NORTH
AND THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY STRONG...NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV
ROTATING ARND A LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR CNTRL CAN...SW TO NE INTO
WRN PTNS OF THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS LATE THU INTO THU EVE. SFC
AMD ML CAPES WILL BE LMTD TO 500-1000 J/KG THU AFTN AND ERLY EVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MDTLY STRONG
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER DYNAMICS ALF AND FZLS ARND 11.5 KFT SUGGEST
MENTIONING ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...WHICH WE DO
WITH LIKELY AND GREATER POPS. BOTH CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS
SHOULD DECREASE SEWRD FROM MAX CATEGORICAL POPS OVR NW ME WITH
THIS SYSTEM...TO ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OF SHWRS ALG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. BEHIND THIS S/WV...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MCLR AS SFC WINDS
DECOUPLE OVR MOST OF THE FA LATE THU NGT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
OF PATCHY LATE NGT/ERLY MORN FOG ON FRI.

FRI LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES BY AFTN. WITH SBCAPES
OF LESS THAN 200 J/KG OVR FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA FRI AFTN...ONLY A CHC
OF SHWRS IS MENTIONED HERE...WITH THE REST OF THE FA REMAINING
MSLY DRY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE MSLY FAIR ATTM. AFTN HI TEMPS WILL
BE AOA NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS BOTH NGTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING MID AND LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE SW AS DEEP SWRLY FLOW
ALF CONTS OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AFTN/EVE SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR MSLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SAT THRU MON OF THE LONG
RANGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL POSSIBLY BEING MON AFTN AS A MORE
SIG S/WV CROSSES THE REGION. THEN BOTH THE 00Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM A MORE NRN BR OF THE UPPER
JET BRINGING A COLD FRONT ALG WITH ANOTHER CHC OF AFTN AND EVE
SHWRS/TSTMS TO MOST OF THE REGION. WE TRIED TO PLAY FOR MORE OF
A DIURNAL...AFTN HTG CYCLE OF POPS THIS UPDATE TO INDICATE A BETTER
POTENTIAL OF RAIN FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE NGT THRU MORN
HRS EACH DAY FOR THOSE WANTING TO PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. OTHERWISE...
HI AND LOW TEMPS EACH DAY WILL AGAIN BE AT OR JUST ABV AVG FOR THIS
TM OF SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OUTSIDE OF LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT-LIVED.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: MSLY VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
THRU THIS PTN OF THE FCST...WITH BRIEF PDS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTN/EVE TSTM AND HEAVIER SHWRS AND LATE NGT/ERLY
MORN PATCHY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 400 AM UPDATE..HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE AS SEAS ARE NOW BELOW 5 FEET. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WAVES ARE STICKING RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE, HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW, BUT WILL LIKELY ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE
AT 4 AM. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON OUR WATERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND WV HTS ARE XPCTD TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THRU THESE PTNS OF THE FCST. WENT WITH ABOUT 75 TO 80
PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN






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