Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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176
FXUS61 KCAR 082256
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
556 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening. An Arctic cold
front will move through the region Friday afternoon. The first
Arctic air mass will settle over the area for the weekend. Low
pressure will approach Sunday night into Monday with the threat
of winter weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
555 PM Update: Snow showers and squalls hitting the area this
evening. Adjusted the pops for areal coverage. Otherwise, daycrew
had this area well handled. We did receive a report of a snow
squall near Sherman along I-95. Special Weather Statements are
out to cover for the activity. Activity was moving east around 15
mph or so. Expecting the action to wind down by 7 pm w/scattered
action through late evening. Adjusted the hrly temps to fit the
current conditions.

Previous Discussion...
A low in central Quebec with an associated cold front extending
back across the great lakes. By early Friday morning the cold
front will push into northwestern Maine, then into central Maine
tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon the front will be through
the state and into the coastal waters. An early high temperature
tomorrow then falling through the day. Winds are expected to pick
up becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon and will continue into
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Arctic air will advect into the area through the night accompanied
by strong gusty winds due to a steep low level lapse rate. Wind
chills will drop below zero for the entire area by daybreak
Saturday, but no wind chill advisories are anticipated. The Arctic
front itself will likely cause some snow squalls Friday
evening...mostly towards NE Aroostook County. Accumulations will
be under an inch, but could cause hazardous driving when combined
with the strong winds. The strong winds could cause drifting
issues into Saturday morning in the open terrain of NE Aroostook.
Used a combination of NAM12 and Regional GEMs guidance to locate
the Arctic front and its southward progression during the night.
Expect temperatures to drop to the low single digits in the Crown
of Maine by Saturday morning. Bangor and the Down East coast will
drop into the 10-15 degree range for lows. Temperatures won`t make
a lot of recovery on Saturday and have dropped highs for this
forecast cycle to low teens north and upper teens to lower 20s
south. These temperatures will be accompanied by gusty NW winds
that will keep wind chills below zero in the morning and in the
single digits for most locations even into the afternoon. Did
reduce cloud cover for most of the day...just keeping flurries
towards the Saint John Valley and western mountains. Temperatures
on Saturday night will be challenging. If winds die off and
decoupling occurs, below zero readings will be commonplace. For
now...will bet on the winds. These will produce lows in the zero
to 5F range north of Millinocket and Houlton. Single digits are
forecast for Bangor while low teens are anticipated at Machias and
Bar Harbor. On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will cross the
area. This means less wind and temperatures that will rise a
couple of degrees higher. Overrunning high clouds will increase in
the afternoon ahead of the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
     Winter storm possible early next week...
With Arctic air in place Sunday night, low pressure will move out
of the Midwestern US in a fast westerly flow towards New England.
Guidance from GFS, GEFS, GEMS, and ECMWF has come into better
agreement with today`s 12Z run, but there remains questions
concerning the amplitude of the shortwave trough. The amplitude of
this trough dictates the track of low and its speed across the
region. The 08/12Z GFS took a dramatic turn towards a more
impactful storm for the forecast area and now looks like the
07/12Z ECMWF. Meanwhile, the last two ECMWF runs look more like
the 07/12Z GFS. As a result of the flip-flopping, will continue
with a consensus blend of available models over the past 24 hours.
This results in likely pops for snow for Bangor and the Down East
region and just chance pops for snow north of Millinocket and
Houlton. The pops for this system now extend from Sunday evening
when an initial burst of overrunning snow may fall towards to the
coast until Tuesday morning when the last of the wraparound
moisture leaves the forecast area. Did move the rain/snow line
further south to the outer islands along the coast.

Regardless of the model, the storm leaves the area Tuesday with
colder air, but not Arctic, and a narrow ridge of high pressure.
Another Arctic front will approach Wednesday, but there`s a lot of
uncertainty on the evolution of this frontal passage too. GFS
suggests southern stream moisture is drawn north with the prospect
of significant snow later Wednesday into Wednesday night while the
GEMS and ECMWF suggest no more than snow showers with the front.
Guidance continues to agree on some very frigid temperatures again
on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions with scattered snow showers all sites. Snow
squalls are expected across northern Maine tomorrow afternoon,
affecting FVE, CAR, PQI, HUL. The squalls will be brief but
intense, bringing VSBY and CIGS down to LIFR during the squall,
then conditions will improve rapidly after. Winds will be gusty
tomorrow, with increased gusts during squalls.

SHORT TERM: MVFR tempo LIFR in snow squalls north of HUL on Friday
evening. Strong gusty winds reaching 35 mph are possible Friday
night. All sites will be predominately VFR Saturday and Sunday
with the most likely exception being FVE in snowshowers. IFR
conditions in snow are possible for BGR and BHB by Sunday evening.
The period Sunday evening into Tuesday currently features a strong
threat of IFR to LIFR in snow south of MLT and mostly MVFR cigs
north of MLT and HUL.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: An SCA is in effect through tomorrow afternoon. A Gale watch is
also in effect through the end of the period with a Gale Warning
expected to be issued for tomorrow afternoon. A cold frontal
system will move into the Northern Gulf of Maine tomorrow
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Will maintain the Gale watch for Friday evening as
gusts will likely be just above criteria and sporadic. A small
craft advisory will follow any gale until late Saturday evening.
Light freezing spray is possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. The next big event appears set for later Monday into
early Tuesday. It`s too early to tell if it`ll be an SCA or gale.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/Norton
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Hewitt/Norton/MCW
Marine...Hewitt/Norton/MCW



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