Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230415

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1215 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Storm Jose will remain southeast of Cape
Cod and will slowly weaken through this weekend while High
pressure both at the surface and upper atmosphere builds across
the region from the west.

12am Update...Mostly clear except for stratocumulus south of
Bangor. Also expect patchy valley fog to develop throughout the
area after midnight. Increased highs for Saturday with highs in
the lower 80s nearly everywhere except the coast and outer
islands. Increaseds lows Saturday night with the warm air
advection and clouds to the north. Removed mention of patchy fog
north of Millinocket for Saturday night.

Previous Discussion...
Strong high pressure will persist to the southwest of New
England and continue to build tonight into Saturday. Expect
clouds from Jose to persist along coastal areas until late this
evening but skies over the remainder of the forecast area are
expected to remain mostly clear. Temperatures are expected to be
much warmer Saturday as high pressure to the southwest
continues to build.

Models showed good run to run continuity from prev model runs
thru Sun erly aftn, but aftwrds, very poor continuity from late
Sun aftn into erly next week. Chgs include an earlier back door
cold front from late Sun aftn across the N to Sun eve Downeast.
Also, models indicate enough hi llvl dwpts upwards to mid to
upper 60s for possible isold to sct tstms Sun aftn and erly eve
across Nrn and Ern ptns of the Rgn as the front crosses thru, so
we added this to the fcst. Not enough confidence to mention any
enhanced wording due to relatively stable mid lvl lapse rates
and dry antecedent ground moisture that could result in more
mixing of slightly drier air from alf on Sun, lowering aftn
dwpts and the potential of cnvctn this fcst for
isold-sct tstms Sun aftn is a middle ground apch for now.

After mild ovrngt lows Sat ngt and erly morn patchy fog Sun morn
due to increasingly humid air, hi temps will apch or exceed
record hi temps at some lctns (see climate section of disc) as
fcst max aftn 925mb temps reach the the lower to mid 20s C.
With llvl cool advcn with NE to E winds Sun ngt, we removed the
mention of patchy fog late Sun ngt.

Mon will be ptly to msly sunny, but at this point, not as warm
as Sun, although still sig abv normal for this tm of season.
Temps will climb more quickly toward hi temps Mon aftn as the
front returns back toward Wrn ptns of the FA as a warm front
late in the day and Mon eve.

Longer range models are now indicating Tue to be dry and much
warmer than thought to be ystdy attm. For now, given the run to
run uncertainty of the models, we did raise hi temps
considerably for Tue, but not as much as what current dtmnstc
12z models like the ECMWF and GFS are implying. We will adjust
hi temps Tue upwards in later updates based on a stable model

Otherwise, both the dtmnstc 12z GFS and ECMWF are also faster
by 6 to 9 hrs with the next major cold frontal system and
associated upper trof for later Wed into Thu morn than shown for
ystdy attm. We did raise hi temps a few deg F for Wed aftn ahead
of the leading edge of shwrs. Speaking of shwrs, there was
enough fcst SBCAPEs to mention aftn/eve tstms across the N hlf
of the FA. Shwrs will cont late Wed ngt into Thu morn before
ending Thu aftn well behind the cold front, with Nrn ptns of
the FA potentially receiving about a half inch downwards to a
quarter inch or less Downeast. Temps will be definitely
returning to more normal values Thu ngt and Fri under mdtly
strong llvl cool advcn with SC cld cvr persisting longest across
the N.

NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours inland except for patchy valley
fog. For the terminals, mainly expect this to impact KPQI again.
Along the coast, expect MVFR ceilings at KBHB with the
potential of IFR Sat morning. Expect KBHB to improve to VFR in
the afternoon. For KBGR, tentatively think that tonight`s
ceilings will stay a bit above MVFR levels, but something to

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites with IFR vsbys and
clgs possible with fog late Tue ngt msly ovr Downeast sites and
MVFR clgs and vsbys at any TAF site with any tstm or heavier
shwrs later Wed aftn.

Cancelled the generic small craft and reissued with a small
craft for hazardous seas and put it out through Saturday
afternoon, as seas are slow to subside.

SHORT TO LONG TERM TERM: Initially no hdlns will be needed Sat
ngt thru Sun ngt, but long pd swell wv hts will increase back
into the SCA range possibly as erly as Mon and cont thru mid
week as Maria moves Nwrd into the open Atlc to E of Cape
Hatteras. Beach hi surf and rip current potential will likely
become high again by Tue aftn or so. Kept close to WW3 wv
guidance for fcst wv hts with wv pds fcst again in the 12 to 16
sec range.

Extended the high surf advisory through the rest of Friday

ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ050-051.

Near Term...Foisy/Mignone/MCW
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
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