Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 230527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1227 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

High pressure will build north of the area tonight. Low pressure
will intensify along the mid Atlantic coast on Monday and move
north toward the region late Monday night into Tuesday.


No significant changes made to overnight forecast.

Previous Discussion... High pressure building across
Quebec will continue to push some cooler and drier air south
across the area tonight. Skies should begin to clear from north to
south overnight. Monday will then turn out mostly sunny over
central and northern areas and partly sunny Downeast as the high
pushes into eastern Quebec. The day will be just a bit cooler and
drier than recent days with highs from the mid 20s north to the
mid 30s along the coast. High clouds will increase along Downeast
areas late in the day ahead of the big storm moving up the Mid-
Atlantic coast.


Upr system rotating acrs the southeast tda wl be our next wx-maker
for the area on Tue into Wed. Hipres located ovr Quebec Mon wl
rmn locked ovr CWA into late Tue night, lkly keeping pcpn at bay
thru most of the ovrngt. Sndgs indicate dry air wl keep most pcpn
to the south and west of the area thru 12z Tue. Airmass saturates
rapidly as strong H8 llj brings in moisture fm the ocean with pw
values incrsg to 2-4 SD abv normal.

Med range guidance is all ovr the place with respect to ptypes with
latest NAM the warmest, 12z EC the coldest and 12z GFS
the compromise. Thinking is that sleet looks to be the dominant
ptype with mix of snow/freezing rain and rain along the immediate
coast by late mrng Tue. Hv opted to issue a Winter Storm Watch
north of a Greenville to Millinocket to Mars Hill line for a
combination of snow and ice. At this time it appears sleet may
mix in as far north as the St. John Vly and Allagash Tue night
per NAM/GFS while EC and GEM keep this area all snow.

By 12z Wed expect sfc low to be located arnd Nova Scotia with
cldr air filtering in bhnd late in the aftn.


Intense low pressure is expected to move to the north of the
region Wednesday Night with colder air coming in around the back
of the system. Expect the cyclonic flow behind this system to
persist through Friday and into the weekend. This will result in
snow showers in western and mountain areas through Saturday along
with mostly cloudy conditions in the north. The southern areas are
expected to remain partly cloudy. Will use the Super Blend to
populate all grids.


NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions should improve to VFR across the north
tonight and remain VFR on Monday. VFR conditions are expected
Downeast tonight and Monday.

SHORT TERM: VFR on Mon for all terminals before lowering to MVFR
Tue morning at BHB and BGR. IFR will set in and not lift until Wed
night in mixed precipitation. VFR conditions expected KBGR and
KBHB on Thursday with MVFR elsewhere. VFR Conditions expected all
areas Friday.


NEAR TERM: An SCA will be up for the offshore waters for northeast
winds gusting up to 25 kt tonight and Monday. A few gusts up to 25
kt are possible across the intracoastal waters too.

SHORT TERM: Expect gales on intracoastal Tue morning and storm on
outer waters into early Tue afternoon. Winds will diminish to
gales after this time and drop to SCA late Tue night. Seas will
remain above SCA levels through the end of the week.


ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     morning for MEZ001>005-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.
     Storm Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.



Near Term...Duda
Short Term...
Long Term...
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