Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 270544
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1244 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1215 AM UPDATE: THE FCST FOR THE REST OF THE LATE NGT WAS UPDATED
TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION LATEST CLD CVR TRENDS BASED ON SAT
IMAGERY AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 11 PM-12 AM OBSVD TEMP TRENDS
FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...WIND SPEEDS WERE
LOWERED OVR BROAD VLY AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NGT INTO
ERLY MORN HRS FRI.

PREV DISCUSSION: FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD
AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A MODERATING AIR MASS. STRONG
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z SAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUN AFTERNOON.
THE CWA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HIGH WITH W/SW FLOW.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS FORMING...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL LIKELY
DROP TO 20 BELOW OR LOWER IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW
VALLEYS. ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. HIGHS SAT WILL RECOVER WITH A FULL DAY OF
SUNSHINE INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE COAST. A MILDER AIR MASS AND INCREASED W/SW FLOW
MEANS SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST VALLEYS. REALLY LIKED THE MID CREWS LOW TEMPS
AND MADE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUN WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST SUN NIGHT WITH A SFC LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND PUSH INTO THE
MARITIMES MON MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO
DOWN EAST MAINE WITH AMOUNTS TO DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. WHETHER
THERE IS LITTLE/OR NO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN...BUT FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY
MAY ONCE AGAIN BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY. THE BEST CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION. IT IS A FAST
MOVING SYSTEM IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY TO BE A WARNING LEVEL EVENT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
LOW ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THE AIR MASS IS NOT ALL THAT COLD IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED...BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION
DETAILS. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. IT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH IF ANY SNOW WILL REACH THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...BUT AT THIS TIME WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR MON
NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY A LOW INTENSIFIES AS
IT PULLS WAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...VJN/CB
MARINE...VJN/CB


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