Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCAR 270032
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
732 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK JUST EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TO
SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
THE SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET
AT TIMES ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...PARTICULARLY NEARER THE COAST.
CURRENT STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL APPEAR ON TARGET WITH
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS
THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES
FROM ABOUT HOULTON SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF A DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
NOTHING MAJOR.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM, WITH GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH
ESPECIALLY COASTAL DOWNEAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES WITH THE WIND COUPLED WITH THE WET SNOW. DON`T THINK THE
WINDS WILL BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE UP NORTH, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW WITH ITS SOMEWHAT LOWER DENSITY UP
NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST ALONG WITH A COLDER AIR MASS. A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF AND BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE STATE SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND CAUSING
A WARM FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO MIXED THEN
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS LATER THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN SNOW...RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT AND LONG TERM...FOR WINDS: HAVE USED THE NAM12 UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM GENERATED IN EASTERN SECTOR OF EAST
COAST STORM ON 27TH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT OFF-SHORE LOCAL FETCH AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. EXPECT NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH TO
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD 6 TO 10 FEET/8-10 SECONDS IN THIS FETCH.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ002-
     004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.