Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 172022
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
322 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trof approaching from the west and a weak area of low
pressure moving east of the mid atlantic region will bring some
snow to the area tonight and Sunday morning, especially across
down east areas. High pressure will build in Sunday afternoon
and then move east of the coast on Monday with a milder flow of
air to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to move off the coast through early this
evening with increasing high clouds. Clouds continue to thicken
as a weak area of low pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast
tonight and an upper level disturbance tracks east from the
great lakes region. Snow will develop from west to east after
midnight. As the mid atlantic low tracks east overnight, an
inverted trof will extend northwest of the low toward the mid
coast of Maine. This will enhance the snowfall toward the coast,
especially coastal Hancock county. Thus, will issue a Winter
Weather advisory for coastal Hancock for 3 to 5 inches of snow
beginning late tonight through Sunday morning. The soundings do
show some low level instability, as pointed out by the mid
shift, and this could result in locally higher snow amounts.
Will just need to monitor the system as it evolves later tonight
into Sunday morning to make any adjustments to snowfall amounts,
as these type of systems can be difficult to forecast until
they actually evolve. Across the rest of down east Maine,
including greater Bangor, generally expecting 2 to 3 inches by
Sunday morning. Snow amounts will drop off across far northern
Maine with only an inch or two expected.

Any morning snow Sunday will diminish by mid day, with skies
brightening in the afternoon as high pressure once again builds
toward the region. High temperatures on Sunday will actually be
above normal, with upper 20s to lower 30s north and mid to upper
30s down east.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sun ngt will begin clr...with increasing cldnss initially across
the N as deep layer warm advcn begins with milder ovrngt lows.
Cannot rule out a brief pd of very lgt snow across xtrm Nrn
ptns of the Rgn erly Mon morn, otherwise, Mon will be mcldy N
and ptly sunny Cntrl and Downeast wih a contd trend of milder hi
temps.

Lgt precip will move into the Rgn Mon ngt as a back door cold
front brings colder llvl air into Nrn ptns of the FA. This could
result in a pd of mixed precip across the N, spcly far Nrn areas
late Mon ngt into Tue morn particularly if the the colder ECMWF
model verifies, but to erly attm to say with enough certainty
as to whether a wntr wx adv will be needed, since other 12z
dtmnstc models do not bring as much cold air into Nrn areas. Hi
temps Tue will vary from the upper 30s far N to lower 50s ovr
interior Downeast areas which will likely break into very mild
air by aftn. For now, we went with conservative with 6 hrly QPF
amts on Tue until we get better agreement with tmg of heavier
pulses of rnfl, but for the tm being, this does not look like a
hvy rnfl event for any ptn of the FA, but we need to monitor
later model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The front should then begin movg nwrd again as a warm front by
Tue aftn and cont movg newrd towards the Nrn Can Maritimes Tue
ngt and Wed. This will likely result in slowly rising temps
across the Nrn ptn of the FA Tue ngt alg with additional rnfl.

Aftn erly morn rn shwrs Wed, a break in precip will allow for a
potentially record breaking hi temps across the FA as the entire
Rgn looks to be in the warm sector until mid aftn when a strong
cold front will sweep the Rgn from QB prov accompanied by
another rnd of rn shwrs ending as sn shwrs Wed eve. Following
the cold front, clrg skies is xpctd late Wed ngt with fair and
seasonably cold thu and Thu thru Fri. Clds will be on the
increase late Fri as another low pres system from the OH vly
apchs from the SW with the potential of some sn breaking out
late Fri ngt and contg into Sat as llvl Srly winds brings milder
air chgng sn to rn from S to N across the Rgn as far north as N
Cntrl ptns of the FA. Went with hi chc max PoPs with this
event. Hi temps Sat will likely be at least a few deg warmer
than Thu or Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with increasing high clouds early this evening.
Snow will start to develop from west to east across the area
after midnight with IFR expected, especially KBGR/KBHB. These
conditions persist into mid morning Sunday with a return to VFR
flight conditions all terminals Sunday afternoon.


SHORT TERM: All sites initially VFR for Sun ngt and Mon then
transitioning to MVFR Mon ngt and IFR Tue with cldnss and vsbys
with lgt precip. All sites remaining IFR Tue ngt in rn, rn
shwrs, and patchy fog, transitioning to MVFR on Wed with aftn rn
shwrs and eve rn/sn shwrs and then back to VFR late Wed ngt and
Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through Sunday, although a few wind gusts to 25 kts
are possible across the outer most waters later tonight through
early Sunday morning.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA wind and wv conditions will prevail
from Mon thru Wed eve, with no hdlns likely Sun/Sun ngt and Wed
ngt thru Thu. Went with a blend of WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv
hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Duda
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Duda/VJN
Marine...Duda/VJN



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