Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 272046
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
346 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST
TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING BANDS OF
HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SNOW
OF VARYING INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL THE INTENSITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS
THE STORM WEAKENS. THE SNOW IS DRY AND POWDERY AND CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE, EVEN DURING PERIODS WHEN THE
SNOW LETS UP. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UP FOR DOWNEAST AREAS AND
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN UP ACROSS THE NORTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM CLOSE TO 2 FEET ACROSS SOME DOWNEAST AREAS TO
JUST A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPLASHOVER
DOWNEAST DURING HIGH TIDE AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
WINDS WILL DIE OFF LATER AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH
READINGS AS LOW AS FOURTEEN BELOW IN THE ALLAGASH. EVEN THE BANGOR
AREA SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE MINUS FIVE TO MINUS TEN RANGE. TRANSIENT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S AS THE STEEP EARLY MORNING INVERSION ERODES. HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY OR RISING AFTER AN INITIAL DROP OFF IN THE EVENING.

SNOW WILL BREAK OUT LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO
QUEBEC. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE INITIALLY BUT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
AND SHARPEN WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF CAPE COD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO MAINE
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
START FEEDING INTO THE DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING LOW DURING FRIDAY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT AND BECOME A CUT-OFF
DURING FRIDAY.  A STRONG JET IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL HELP ENSURE A CUT-OFF DEVELOPS. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXACT POSITION WHERE THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS.
THIS WILL DETERMINE WHICH PART OF THE STATE RECEIVES THE MOST SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENT AND WHERE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE EVENTUALLY
LAID OUT. IF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF FORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THEN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
RECEIVE THE MOST SNOWFALL. IF THE CUT-OFF DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF
MAINE...THEN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE
THE MOST SNOW. AS THIS TIME...HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS BLEND
APPROACH TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW...ITS ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AND THE QPF. THIS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES
FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO PENOBSCOT BAY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER DURING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER FOR
THIS EVENT. FRIDAY`S HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WRAPPING SNOW BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DECREASING
SNOW LATER SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND
LOCATION OF BEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING SNOW
CHANCES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW MONDAY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHETHER
ACROSS MAINE OR THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN VFR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY AND
SOME CLEARING APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IFR WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR ON FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW
AND LOW CLOUDS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATER SATURDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS COULD THEN LOWER TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 KTS AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A GALE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN AN SCA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY REMAINS UP TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SCA WILL BE
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
     010-011-031-032.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/MCW
MARINE...BLOOMER/MCW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BLOOMER


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