Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240433
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1233 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: THE VERY COLD CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT LATE MAY
SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
AWAY TONIGHT AND A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD THIS
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE LATER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE DOWN EAST
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL UNSTABLE LAYER UP TO H600.
THE DOMINANT TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE WARMING.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
40F. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ALL NIGHT AND ALLOW QUICK
HEATING SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE OFFSHORE WIND WILL ALLOW THE WARM
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE COAST. SOME OF THE OUTER ISLANDS WILL BE
COOLER WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY LATER. LOW HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE. A WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF
STRONG WEST WINDS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTS REACHING TOWARDS 35
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER AS A WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR SETS UP AROUND THE HIGH. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE A MILD NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DOWNEAST REGION
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A STRAY SHOWER IN SOME DOWNEAST AND
CENTRAL SPOTS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
MILD. MONDAY WILL BE VERY WARM WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE INTO OUR AREA AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO MID SUMMER NORMS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION VERY LATE AT NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. SHOWERS WILL THEN BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT IS PULLED NORTH BY LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL CONVECTION MAY EVEN RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOISTURE WILL RACE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING THE REGION CLOUDY
TO PARTLY SUNNY, WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE ZONAL
BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
THE POLAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA IN GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SYSTEMS RAPIDLY
TRACK THROUGH. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL AGREE ON THE SET UP...THEY ALL DIFFER ON THE
TIMING OF SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA.

LOADED SUPERBLEND...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER
LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4
FOR SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 35 MPH RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS MOVE
IN FROM A WARM FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IFR ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MVFR WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 615 PM UPDATE...WITH WIND GUSTS BELOW 25 KTS AS
INDICATED BY LMTD BUOY CVRG AND COASTAL OBS LCTNS...WE HAVE OPTD
TO CANX THE REMAINING JUST UNDER 2 HRS PTN OF THE SCA.

ORGNL DISC...WILL MAINTAIN SCA TO 8 PM...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
FALLING BELOW CRITERIA. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH WARMER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE REACHING SCA
THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA IN GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH. SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS MAY BUILD OVER 5 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...DUDA/VJN/BLOOMER


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