Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 250506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS WHICH
WILL KEEP A RISK FOR STRATOCUMULUS TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GEORGIA
WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE WAS NOTED.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
INLAND WITH LOWER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY BREAKING DOWN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR TWO COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE AREA BREAKING UP THE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WHEREBY
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVERALL.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC...OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE NEARLY STEADY STATE FORECAST CONTINUES AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRIVES AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS 3-4 FT OUT TO 20 NM AND 4-6 FT BEYOND.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST KEEPING A
SOLID ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A BIT
WORSE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
PERSISTENT FETCH. WITH 6 FOOT SEAS NOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST A BIT
LONGER BEYOND 20 NM WE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH
COULD COME CLOSE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WE LEANED TOWARD
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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