Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231138
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
638 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 12z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Generally weak to
moderate NE to SE flow across South Texas this morning/afternoon,
then weak/moderate generally E flow early evening, followed by
light/variable tonight in advance of a cold front tonight. Expect
moderate north wind to develop from north to south over South
Texas 06-12z Tuesday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Concur that an upper level disturbance will develop/move across
the northern/central Plains, then across the Midwest/eastern CONUS
during the period. The foregoing will contribute to another
surge/front across the CWA/MSA tonight/Tuesday. Owing to dry
conditions (per NAM deterministic PWAT values), no precipitation
expected along the front. This front will reinforce dry
atmospheric conditions over the CWA. Owing to dry conditions,
warm maximum temperatures expected today over the CWA, yet lower
maximum values Tuesday owing to the front.

MARINE (Today through Tuesday)...

Only SCEC conditions anticipated this morning over the offshore
Coastal Waters, and thus have canceled the SCA. yet, SCA
conditions expected to develop Tuesday after frontal passage.
Despite 8 second swell periods anticipated today over the Waters,
rip current risk will remain low given expected wind. Water levels
at Bob Hall pier have fallen below 2ft msl. Not confident whether
the tidal level will reach 2ft msl during the next high tide
around 00z Tuesday given TAMUCC prediction output. Thus will not
issue a CFW.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...

Sfc high pressure is prog to build south across TX Tuesday Night
with clear skies and weak wind fields across inland areas
prevailing. Stronger winds are likely to prevail across the W Gulf
waters where greater mixing is prog to prevail (thanks in part to
still warm SSTs). 1023mb sfc high center is prog to move east across
the Coastal Plains on Wed with max temps struggling to reach 80
degrees across the CWA. High pressure pulls to the east for Thursday
with WAA briefly prevailing...with max temps warming back into the
80s. Another strong cold front (strongest yet this season) is prog
to quickly push south across the area Thursday Night into Friday
(GFS is fastest and the ECMWF is the slowest). Moisture depth
along/ahead of the front will be lacking...and thus little to no
significant precip is expected with the boundary. Sfc high pressure
center is prog to move all the way south into Deep South Texas over
the weekend...with CAA continuing for the first half of the weekend.
Max temps on Saturday may fail to warm out of the 60s...with min
temps over the weekend falling well into the 40s (inland areas) with
isolated locations reaching the upper 30s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  58  81  50  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          82  53  78  44  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            85  58  81  52  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             86  55  82  48  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          80  60  79  52  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           85  55  80  48  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        86  56  83  47  78  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  64  81  57  77  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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