Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 041120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...COULD HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT EASTERN
TERMINALS THIS MORNING...MAINLY BEFORE 15Z BUT THEN SHOULD SEE VFR
THROUGH 05/06Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH/VCTS AT KCRP AND
KVCT...WTIH THE TEMPO TSRA AT KVCT WHERE SOME CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST AND HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING
TOWARD THAT AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP TEMPOS OUT OF KCRP SINCE EXPECTING STEERING WINDS TO KEEP IT
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN BETTER MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST
LATER IN THE DAY. ALL CONVECTION ENDS OR MOVES OUT OF AREA NO
LATER THAN 06/00Z. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS (AT LEAST
TEMPO) AFTER 05/06Z. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL ONLY PUT MVFR
CIGS IN AT KLRD WHERE THINK CIGS WILL BE THERE MOST OF THE PERIOD
BUT THINK ELSEWHERE THEY MAY BE TOO INTERMITTENT TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINALS THIS LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GOES IR SOUNDER STILL
SHOWING SOME HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THE
HIGHER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
FARTHER NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. STILL...AM EXPECTING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS UP TEMPERING DEEP
CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS IN THE GULF AND
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SEE A BIT LESS TODAY BUT STILL SOME. FARTHER
SOUTH AND WEST...LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED. COULD BE A TAD
WARMER OUT WEST TODAY OR AT LEAST BY WEDNESDAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN. HEAT INDICES 105 TO 109 TODAY MOST SOUTHERN
AREAS (NEAR 110F AGAIN AT KNQI) WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME...WHICH WILL HELP IN MAKING THINGS
A BIT LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT-WISE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL...THE HOT
DAYS OF SUMMER CONTINUE.

$$

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE/NORTHERN WATERS. LESS ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS UP A BIT MORE BUT BELOW SCA BUT COULD BE SCEC FOR
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS UPPER LVL RIDGE MAINTAINS STRONG HOLD OVER THE REGION.
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS SOME HINTING AT A WEAK VORT MAX
PASSING UNDER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WARM MID
LVL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SUPPRESS ANY DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME. THROUGH THE PERIOD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 109 CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  79  96  79  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          98  77  98  76  98  /  30  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           105  80 105  79 105  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE            100  77 101  77 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          94  82  94  82  93  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA          102  77 103  77 104  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        97  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  82  92  81  91  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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