Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252047
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
347 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

Rather quiet short term period as cold front pushes into marine
areas this afternoon. Minor upper level ridging builds overhead
tonight before the next upper disturbances approaches on Sunday.
This disturbance will remain well to the north and with no real
moisture over the region will expect it to be mainly dry...however
some models indicate a ribbon of moisture coming up from Mexico so
did throw in some silent 10 pops Sunday in the west and Sunday
night over the Brush Country and plains. This upper disturbance
will lead to breezy conditions across the area once again Sunday
and the first part of Sunday night.

With low deep layer humidity and a warm southerly flow, will see
temperatures get rather warm on Sunday. Highs west could reach the
mid 90s with upper 80s and lower 90s in the east. Expect min temps
both nights mainly in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Friday Night)...

Progressive pattern continues across the region through the long
term period with numerous mid-level waves of various strengths
affecting the region. Start off on Monday with weak wave to our
northeast and shortwave ridging overhead. Weak cold front associated
with this wave stalls out to our north as we continue our onshore
flow and higher moisture content.

Next system continues to trend stronger and deeper to our northwest.
With the trough closing off and diving southward a somewhat slower
progression of its axis is expected which keeps a majority of
Tuesday dry. Still expecting the best dynamics, moisture convergence
(with some Pacific influence) and instability across the eastern
half of the region on Wednesday. A stronger cold front, associated
with the closed low, moves towards the region during the day. We
continue the higher chance PoPs across our northeastern zones on
Wednesday where surface forcing and instability look the strongest.
That being said there is still plenty of time for adjustments in
this scenario given some run to run inconsistencies, with the
deterministic and ensembles, with regards to the closed lows
eastward progression.

As mentioned above a deeper digging of the mid-level closed low
would allow for continued moisture advection and a slower surface
boundary progression. We keep a mention of PoPs through Thursday
mostly across the eastern third of the region and Middle Texas
coastal waters. Thereafter the front will move through helping to
dry us out some. Continuing with more mid-level energy moving
through the region, we could have another system over the weekend.

Temperatures remain warm to hot across the region throughout the
period/well above average.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    66  85  68  86  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          63  87  67  87  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            66  94  67  94  70  /   0  10  10   0  10
Alice             65  90  66  92  68  /   0  10  10  10  10
Rockport          70  80  72  83  73  /  10  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           64  94  66  93  69  /   0  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        65  89  67  91  70  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       69  82  70  83  72  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
GH/77...LONG TERM



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