Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 302354
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
654 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...ADJUSTED WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCEC LEVELS
OWING TO EXPECTATION OF VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM FROM
ALOFT (NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND)
NOTWITHSTANDING SLIGHTLY COOLER SST VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS (06Z SAT SPORT SST COMPOSITE.)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS S TX WITH ONLY ISOLD
PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. REDVLPMNT IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING INITIALLY ALONG THE COAST THEN SHIFTING INLAND BUT
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB
GROUP FOR TSRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CRP THEN LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR ALI AND VCT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...NE TO SW ORIENTED
INVERTED H5 TROUGH AXIS...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IS PROG TO SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. H25 TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PRIMARY FEATURES...IN ADDITION TO
PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SPEED
CONVERGENCE...WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE NIGHT/MORNING OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INLAND CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH A LULL OF PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND APPROACH/DEVELOP TOWARDS/OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES TOWARDS SUNRISE. GREATER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT /AS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW/AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
WEST. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS LOWER LEVEL SPEED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE DECREASE WITH
DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST...AND THUS GREATEST CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH MAX TEMP ON SUNDAY DEPENDENT ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS
AFTER A VERY SHORT REPRIEVE. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRETTY WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE (AND NOT MAKING IT A MAJOR TROPICAL SYSTEM)...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING AT LEAST SOME GOOD ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
FROM IT (PWATS OVER 2 INCHES). WITH WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER FLOW
STILL OVER THE AREA (AND SOME MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER
SUPPORT)...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY SINCE GFS/ECMWF GRIDDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE AS WE
HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE GETTING CONVECTION RECENTLY WITH PWATS
WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...SO AM GOING TO GO NO MORE
THAN 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY AND KEEP SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW. CONCERNING
TEMPERATURES...LOWERED DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
AREAS) WHERE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE RATHER LOW FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR SOME TIME...SO THINK
MAY NOT SEE 100 DEGREE OR MORE READINGS WESTERN AREAS AFTER
TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  92  78  95  78  /  30  30  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  93  77  97  77  /  30  50  10  20  10
LAREDO            79 100  80 102  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             76  95  76  97  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  89  80  92  80  /  50  50  10  20  20
COTULLA           75  99  76 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  77  97  78  /  20  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  80  92  80  /  50  40  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM



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