Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231113
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A WEAK DISSIPATING BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DECREASED VISBYS AT ALI AND
VCT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT BEYOND THAT...JUST
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FOR VCT...ALI...LRD TAF SITES...BUT TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS INLAND HAVE
BEEN SHORT LIVED AS MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW. IN MARINE
AREAS...DEEPER MOIST LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE EXPANDED 20 POPS A BIT AS ONGOING CONVECTION
INDICATES ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. SHOULD BE DONE WITH CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST
ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCES DURING TODAY WILL BE SOUTHEAST IN THE
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE INDICATES A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CLOUDS
CREATING SCT TO BKN CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MID LEVEL DECK TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BTU WILL
LIKELY KEEP SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHES ON THE
AREA. SOME MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BUT OTHERS BRING QPF INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WITH 2
INCH PWATS. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR NOW FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 89-90 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PLACEMENT OF CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE. REGARDLESS...COMBINATION OF UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK OUT OF WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEKEND...EJECTING SYSTEM OVER TEXAS TO THE NNE. GFS
MOVES THE SYSTEM OUT QUICKER THAN THE SLOWER EUROPEAN...WHICH WILL
AFFECT RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED. BY SUNDAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE (EXCEPT OVER THE WATERS) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  73  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
VICTORIA          90  67  88  67  87  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  73  90  70  89  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             91  70  89  69  88  /  20  10  20  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  75  87  73  85  /  20  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           92  69  90  68  89  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  72  88  70  87  /  20  10  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       88  75  87  75  85  /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION





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