Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 200324
AFDCRP
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1024 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
FOLLOW TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS
ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE/DEVELOP WEST OF STATE ROAD
16 UNTIL AROUND 03Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...A TRANSITION FROM VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT TO A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTED. AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SERN SECTIONS 12-15Z
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE SRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN HOURS MONDAY. GENERALLY LGT
E/NE SFC WIND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LGT EAST FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED IN MEX WITH A FEW WEAK ECHOES OCCASIONALLY MOVG
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO WESTERN WEBB CO. IN ADDITION...RADAR IS
SHOWING WEAK ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THE CONVECTION IN MEX...IS SLOWLY MOVG NE AND
IS PROGD TO CONTINUE TRACKING NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE COULD STILL SEE SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
AND WEST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM EXPECTING A LULL BY LATE EVENING THEN ISOLD SHRA`S
REDVLP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL BEND TOWARD
MON MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RAIN CHCS FOR MON AS GUIDANCE
GREATLY VARIES. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR
CRP WHILE THE GFS IS PROGING 35 PERCENT. DECIDED TO GO WITH A 40
POP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ON MON AND KEPT THE 30`S FARTHER
WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING
ACROSS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND ARE SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
LIFTING N INTO THE S CWA. WILL ALSO HAVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER WITHOUT A DEFINED BDRY/FOCUS...IT IS
HARD TO SAY JUST WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CRP AREA ON SAT...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS...WILL NOT GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHCS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A
SLIGHT CHC MON EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS...WENT CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE. A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MON DUE TO THE PERSISTENT E TO NE FLOW.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MOISTURE STILL LINGERS ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST
AREAS TUESDAY (NORTHEAST CWA REMAINS DRY)...AND THEN LIMITING POPS
TO JUST THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY. DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD A SURFACE/LOW LVL LOW WILL BE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WITH AN UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING
THE PERIOD THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE GULF.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. GFS CONTINUES SHOWING BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN
OVER THE REGION...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF HAS BEGUN CUTTING OF A LOW AND SENDING IT
DOWN THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPINNING THE LOW OFF IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GFS
RATHER TAKES THIS SAME TROUGH/LOW WHILE IT IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADIAN BORDER AND ABSORBS IT INTO THE DEEP NOR`EASTER OVER NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME KEPT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS
IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND SEEMS TO BETTER HANDLE THIS SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST ABOVE TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL DROP SOME DURING THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  84  69  84  68  /  20  40  20  20  10
VICTORIA          64  84  64  85  62  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            71  87  70  85  68  /  20  30  20  20  20
ALICE             67  85  67  85  66  /  10  40  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          74  83  71  84  71  /  20  30  20  20  10
COTULLA           66  85  67  86  65  /  20  30  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        69  84  69  85  67  /  20  40  20  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  73  83  72  /  20  40  20  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM






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