Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290334
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1034 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL
4 AM CDT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NW CWA
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS PROG THAT THE
LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY
EXPANDING THE WATCH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS
FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE BIG BEND
OF TEXAS. ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...AND
IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS. IF CURRENT INTENSITY OF STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE AREA BUT DID NOT INCLUDE SVR IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DID BUMP UP POPS THOUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR EDITS MADE TO THE HOURLY
WX ELEMENTS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO TRANSITION TO MVFR LEVELS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF
CONVECTION TO THE SE LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD IMPACT THE LRD TAF
SITE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS REMARKS IN THE FORECAST. THOUGHT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME IFR VSBYS AT
VCT AND WILL KEEP IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG/BR SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AS GUSTY SE WINDS RETURN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALL IN PART TO A WEAKER CAP AND INCREASED MOISTURE OF
PWATS NEAR 1.8 INCHES PER THE 12Z KCRP/KBRO SOUNDINGS. CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT EXPECTED INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OUT WEST
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOCUS TRANSITIONS TO THE MCS COMPUTER MODELS ARE SPINNING UP
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE BASIN LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALOFT RESIDES
NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
WEAKENING CAP AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...EXPECTING THE LINE
TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA...AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CWA. SOME 4KM WRF MODELS DEVELOP MORE OF LINE MOVING
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WOULD BE MORE
INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE THETA-E
RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LINE
MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AS MOST MODELS CONTINUE THE
SLOWER TIMING. THE MAIN LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...DRAWING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST...HOWEVER...MAY SEE
THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE LINE BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY RESIDING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING. NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER DID COOL
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS FROM EXPECTED RAIN AND
CLOUD COVERAGE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY TROUGH THURSDAY)...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH A
CORRESPONDING SFC BNDRY ENTERING THE CWA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING/MEANDERING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY. FURTHER...AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE ERN
CWA/MSA SUNDAY/MONDAY (DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THE COMBINATION OF THE
BOUNDARY/SRN UPPER TROUGH/NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
OVER THE CWA/MSA. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AXIS OVER THE EXTREME WRN
GULF/TX COAST REGION DRG THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
SFC BNDRY WL LIKELY DISSPATE MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TUESDAY-THURSDAY
YET WITH MSTR AS THE LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  76  86  73  /  30  40  10  30  40
VICTORIA          75  86  74  86  72  /  40  40  20  40  50
LAREDO            77  92  75  90  73  /  60  20  10  30  40
ALICE             76  89  74  88  72  /  40  30  10  30  40
ROCKPORT          79  84  78  84  75  /  30  30  20  30  40
COTULLA           74  88  72  88  71  /  70  30  20  40  50
KINGSVILLE        78  89  76  88  73  /  30  40  10  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       79  84  78  84  76  /  30  30  10  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM



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