057
FXUS64 KFWD 090025 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
725 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Overall evolution of the current strong to severe storms
initiation along a weak surface trough or frontal boundary is
documented well below, as is the overall trends this evening. In
addition, still appears stratus (and some fog) will be the main
story overnight through Thursday morning as we encounter synoptic
scale subsidence behind this first mid level shortwave with soupy
surface dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The current weak
surface trough/front will become semi-diffuse and just waggle back
and forth 50 miles either side of it`s current location from
between Sherman and Bonham, to DFW, to Granbury and north of
Comanche/Stephenville.

Another shortwave will move out northeast within the sub-tropical
jet stream over northeast Mexico and over the top of the weak
boundary and very steamy and unstable airmass during the afternoon
hours Thursday and continue an overall, slow shift into East
Texas later Thursday evening. This actually looks like the better
window for scattered-numerous tstorms (40-%-60%) and current
Slight-Enhanced risk area along and south of the retreating
surface trough/front looks on point with all modes of severe
weather possible, though damaging winds and very large hail look
to be the main impacts with severe storms. Though the tornado
threat will be non-zero due to weak and highly-veered 0-1km flow,
any locally back low level flow from nearby storms along with very
high instability (particularly Central Texas, could produce a
strong tornado or two.

Lastly cloud cover, the strong-severe storms and locally heavy
rainfall will combine with modest east and northeast winds for
thankfully a much cooler day across North Texas Thursday with
temperatures in the lower-mid 80s with a few areas in the Big
Country possibly only warming into the upper 70s. Central Texas
unfortunately will remain steamy and soupy in the 90s.

05/Marty


&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/Friday and Beyond/

As surface high pressure settles over North and Central Texas
behind the Thursday cold front, drier and cooler air will usher in
a pleasant start to the weekend. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s
to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s both
Friday and Saturday. As the surface ridge shifts east toward the
SE CONUS Gulf Coast, east-northeasterly winds will veer more
southeasterly by the latter half of the weekend beginning a period
of gradual moisture return. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may return to our western Central Texas and Big
Country counties as soon as late Saturday evening as isentropic
ascent increases ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level low.

More widespread rain chances are expected Sunday as the
aforementioned upper low shifts toward the Southern Plains
region. With little to no surface-based instability present,
thunderstorms will likely remain elevated through Sunday and offer
primarily a small hail and heavy rain threat. The severe weather
threat may ramp up some as we shift into Monday. Medium-range
guidance suggests the upper trough will shift over Oklahoma/Kansas
helping send a northwest-southeast moving cold front through our
forecast area Monday. Upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints and
steepening mid-level lapse rates will increase instability over
the warm sector. Deep layer shear does look sufficient for
organized storm structures capable of producing hail and damaging
wind gusts, so make sure to keep up with the forecast through the
weekend as we further refine timing and location details. More so,
the threat for localized flash flooding may increase in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe with latest guidance highlighting a 30-40%
chance that already water-logged locations across portions of
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could see an additional 2+" of
rainfall during this timeframe.

Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic
pattern increases. However, it does appear that the subtropical
jet will remain active over the Southern Plains well into the
extended period. And with sufficient moisture remaining in place
(dependent on the Monday system), that is enough to carry at least
low end rain chances through the middle of next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 640 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/00z TAFs/

The weak surface boundary or cold front was current draped along a
line from KGYI, to KFTW/KAFW, to between KSEP/KMWL as evidenced by
a WNW wind shift near 10 kts with the weak FROPA while S/SE winds
10-13 kts remain further east. Isolated TSRA were now going up
from in the soupy airmass with 70F+ dew pints from KF00/KPRX...SW
to KTKI and toward KDFW/KDAL attm.

Any VCTS/TSRA impacts should shift S-E of D10 airports with mainly
impacts to arrivals/departures occurring from the Bonham
cornerpost, EBND air traffic, through the Cedar Creek cornerpost
to the SBND traffic, though majority of TSRA impacts should
remain just E of the SBND flow.

After 09z and especially 11z-12z/through 15z, low MVFR/IFR cigs
will impact all airports, with Waco Regional Airport actually
seeing near calm winds near the stalling boundary and potential
for IFR-LIFR vsbys in BR/FG between 09z and almost 18z, before
improving. NE winds 5-8 kts will occur just behind the weak front
with TSRA re-firing near this boundary by/after 18z with NE-E
winds 8-15 kts with a few higher gusts possible at all airports.
Coverage will be higher as will impacts at DFW/DAL airports
through/past 00z Friday, with improvement occurring after 03z
Friday.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  82  63  80  62 /  30  50  20   0   5
Waco                75  87  63  77  61 /  20  50  20   5   5
Paris               66  83  60  79  56 /  60  40  30   0   0
Denton              65  82  60  79  58 /  10  40  20   0   5
McKinney            66  82  61  79  58 /  30  50  20   0   5
Dallas              70  84  63  80  61 /  30  50  20   0   5
Terrell             68  85  62  79  58 /  40  50  30   0   5
Corsicana           73  85  63  81  61 /  20  50  30   0   5
Temple              75  87  64  79  61 /  20  50  20   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  81  60  80  58 /   5  40  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$