Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221158
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TODAY AND KEEP IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLIGHTLY BY
MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE 6 MILES.

LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES AT SOME
POINT IN TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z AND 00Z. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
VCTS AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 18Z AND PREVAILING THUNDER FROM 21Z
UNTIL 00Z. AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION BUT SOME RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY SHOULD
LINGER AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...A NEAR SATURATED GROUND AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AS DRIER
AIR FINALLY BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED.

ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS. A LITTLE CLOSER TO HOME...AREA RADARS
SHOW A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A 40KT LLJ IS LOCATED ALONG WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850-700MB
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA SHOW THAT LIFTING PARCELS FROM AROUND 800MB YIELDS
ABOUT 700J/KG OF CAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A NEARLY
MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800MB WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE STORMS ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...GUSTY WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SEVERAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH.

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER TODAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW DOES ALSO LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIED CLOSELY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS DOESNT MEAN THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY OFF THE HOOK
HOWEVER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. POCKETS OF HIGHER
INSTABILITY WHERE IT IS A LITTLE WARMER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
THIS THREAT IS HIGHEST SOUTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO CENTERVILLE
LINE.

WITH STRONGER FORCING ARRIVING LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION IS PRESENT. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT AS INDICATED
BY NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. THIS IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AND WITH A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE...SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY RAIN
GAUGE REPORTS OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES
TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS AGAINST MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT ARE THE MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING A RELATIVELY FAST CLIP
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY SOAK INTO PARCHED GROUNDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THAT STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY.
CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE NAM GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  56  72  44  63 / 100  70   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  53  77  43  64 / 100  70   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             64  56  71  41  59 / 100 100  10   0   5
DENTON, TX            66  51  72  39  62 / 100  70  10   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  56  71  39  62 / 100  90  10   0   5
DALLAS, TX            68  57  73  44  62 / 100  80   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  57  74  41  62 / 100 100  10   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  56  75  45  64 / 100  90  10   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            69  54  77  43  64 / 100  60   5   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  50  72  36  62 / 100  30   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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