Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 290830
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The combination of clear skies and light winds has resulted in
some patchy fog development across the southeastern half of the
forecast area early this morning. Fog has been mainly limited to
areas which received rain yesterday, so most locations should
remain free of any visibility restrictions this morning. Where fog
does develop, it should remain shallow and patchy in nature, which
means that it will burn off quickly around mid morning.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop again as the surface
heats up this afternoon and a moist and unstable airmass remains
in place. The system responsible for our rain chances is a weak
upper level trough currently located over the upper Texas coastal
region. Numerous thunderstorms are already occurring along the
Southeast Texas Coast in the vicinity of the trough. This activity
will spread inland across southeast Texas as temperatures climb
into the mid and upper 80s. Our best chances of rain will occur
adjacent to this region over our southern and southeast counties
where moisture levels are highest and weak ascent associated with
the upper level feature will be present. Rain chances will
generally decrease the farther north you go, though we will keep
slight chance POPs in place all the way to the Red River.

Meanwhile, the ridge that was present along the East Coast is
already shifting back to the west, and will generate subsidence
across much of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
chances during this time will be slim for all areas. This is when
we should see temperatures climbing to above-normal values with
highs topping in the mid 90s across most of the area by
Wednesday.

The upper ridge will continue to amplify as it shifts slowly west
and an upper trough digs down through the Great Lakes region. This
is the same upper trough which is expected to pick up the tropical
system in the Gulf and carry it northeastward (well away from
having any affect on our weather). By Thursday, the ridge will be
centered over West Texas but extend northward all the way through
the Dakotas. A large region of north to northwest winds aloft
between the ridge to the west and the trough to the east will send
a late Summer cold front southward through the Plains and
Mississippi Valley. It appears that the front will make it at
least partially through North and Central Texas before washing
out. Convergence along the boundary will probably be enough to
generate scattered showers and a few storms Thursday, but
subsidence from the ridge aloft should limit the overall
coverage.

Low rain chances will continue on Friday near the remnants of the
front. We have gone lower on the forecast high temperatures for
Friday due to the slightly cooler airmass behind the boundary,
with high temperatures remaining in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A
hot and dry forecast is still planned for the weekend into early
next week as the upper ridge drifts southeast and parks overhead
for several days.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
Metroplex: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z
Tuesday. Some patchy ground fog is possible in areas that received
rain Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by midday Monday across North Texas but the chances at the
TAF sites are too low to include at this time. Southeast winds
around 10 knots at TAF issuance time will become east 5 to 10
knots overnight and northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday morning.

Waco: Areas of light fog are expected across parts of Central
Texas Monday morning...but some patchy dense ground fog is
possible. For now have just placed 5SM BR BKN015 for the 12 to 16z
period. After some early morning fog/low clouds...mostly VFR
conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Monday
morning across Central Texas and continue into the early evening
hours. For now will just place VCSH starting at 18z. East winds 5
to 10 knots will become northeast by 15z Monday.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  75  92  77  95 /  20  10  20  10  10
Waco                90  73  90  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  10
Paris               92  73  94  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
Denton              92  73  92  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
McKinney            92  73  92  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  10
Dallas              93  76  93  77  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
Terrell             93  74  93  75  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
Corsicana           92  74  92  76  94 /  30  20  20  10  10
Temple              89  72  90  73  93 /  40  20  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       91  72  90  71  92 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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