Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
256 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds and moisture will be on the increase the next 24 hours
across the area as expected. Tightening surface gradient by Friday
afternoon will results in 40 mph wind gusts in some areas,
possibly 45 mph gust in northern Kansas. We continue with above
normal temperatures for lows tonight and highs tomorrow. Some
cloud cover tomorrow will take the edge of the warmth a bit but it
will definitely have a humid feel for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The main story initially a cold front passing early Saturday.
Despite the increase in moisture, precipitation in general is
fairly sparse coverage-wise, although not non-existent. Best
chance for measurable precipitation is east along the U.S.
Highway 81 corridor, probably Saturday morning as the front taps
into some early morning instability riding north on low level
jet ahead of front. Once the front pushes an area, the rain risk
disappears and gusty northwest winds take hold through mid/late
afternoon. Temperatures will cooler for still in the normal range
Saturday. Sunday looks pretty nice with lighter, downslope winds.

The Saturday front is the first in a few fronts coming the next
few days in an evolving northwest flow. Another front slips
through Monday and then a stronger cold front roughly Wednesday
night. Both frontal passages look dry...but expect up and down
temperatures and likely increased breezes as a result. Fire
weather issues may arise with the very dry air and wind potential
next week. We may also open the door to freeze conditions across
north central Kansas, especially after the later week front.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

The main issue this forecast period is wind and wind shear. Though
light this afternoon, a strong low level jet will form by mid
evening and result in wind low level wind shear overnight and into
Friday morning. Significant 30kt+ speed shear is likely. Surface
will pick up Friday morning and gust 25 kts but so will winds just
off the surface. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.




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