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000
FXUS63 KGID 251115
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

AP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE BIG PICTURE THEME OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN STORY REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AS MONDAY-WEDNESDAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S...BEFORE A DECENT (BUT
NOT OVERLY-DRAMATIC) COOL-DOWN ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS CURRENTLY AIMED INTO THE 40S...AND THEN MAYBE A RETURN TO
MORE LEGITIMATE JANUARY-LIKE HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...LOOKING A FEW DAYS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD
INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY...THE LATEST MODELS ARE NOT
REALLY SUGGESTING A "MAJOR" SURGE OF COLD AIR AT THIS POINT.
TECHNICALLY...EVEN SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO TOP OUT JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE...SO ITS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS ONGOING
STREAK OF ABOVE-AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES THAT STARTED ON JAN.
14TH COULD REACH AT LEAST 17 DAYS AND MAYBE LONGER! ON ONE LAST
TEMP NOTE...DESPITE THE VERY MILD REGIME EXPECTED MON-WED...DAILY
RECORDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN AT GRAND
ISLAND/HASTINGS...SEE SEPARATE CLIMATE BLURB BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TURNING TO PRECIPITATION...CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE-AVERAGE THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THESE 6 DAYS WILL REMAIN DRY. IN FACT...WHAT 24
HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY HALFWAY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND HAS ALSO FADED A BIT. MAINLY PER THE
GFS MODEL...HAVE HUNG ONTO A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOW DROPPED ANY MENTIONABLE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SATURDAY. BARRING UNEXPECTED CHANGES...SITES
SUCH AS GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS (AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA) ARE STARING AT ONE OF THE TOP-10 DRIEST MONTHS OF JANUARY
ON RECORD...BUT GIVEN THAT JANUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE DRIEST
MONTHS OF THE YEAR ANYWAY THIS IS FORTUNATELY NOT NEARLY AS BIG OF
DEAL AS IT WOULD BE DURING THE SPRING/SUMMER. THAT BEING
SAID...IF THIS DRY PATTERN PERSISTS...THEN ANY PERIODS OF
WARMER/BREEZIER WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
AT LEAST BREACHING NEAR-CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. IN FACT...NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK PRODUCT (HWOGID) FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...SEE SEPARATE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

BEFORE MOVING ON...WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED
WARMTH OF MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...THESE ARE NOT NECESSARILY "CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE DAYS" EITHER...AS ESPECIALLY MON AND WED ARE LOOKING
RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

NOW TACKLING GREATER FORECAST DETAIL IN MAINLY 24-HOUR BLOCKS...

MONDAY DAYTIME-MONDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS WINDY/CHILLY
CONDITIONS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN A RATHER NOTABLE WARM-UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO JUMP UP 20 DEGREES.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL BIG PICTURE...THINGS TURN PRETTY BENIGN AS
A LARGE/AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EDGES EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHUNTING THE STRONG UPPER JET CORE
HUNDREDS OF MILES TO OUR EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN NO
WORSE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. DOWN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND
SURFACE...THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS TRAILING WELL SOUTHWARD
FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER RATHER
BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT NOT AS WINDY AS
TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY AVERAGING 15-20 MPH/GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THIS PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER AIR. ALTHOUGH MAY NOT EVEN BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH...LEFT
HIGHS LARGELY UNCHANGED IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHILE NUDGING MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA UP 1-2 DEGREES. THE NET RESULT
ARE HIGHS AIMED FROM LOW 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BREEZES QUICKLY SLACKEN DOWN TO NO MORE
THAN 5-10 MPH. ALTHOUGH STILL KEPT LOWS 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND
OF 00Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE...DID BRING THEM DOWN ABOUT 3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA INTO THE 28-33 RANGE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...FROM A PUBLIC PERSPECTIVE THIS MIGHT JUST
BE THE "OVERALL NICEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
AREA. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PASSING TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA WILL PROMOTE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ONLY
AVERAGING 10-15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALOFT
AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN ON
MONDAY...THIS SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW FOR
MIXING TO BE AS DEEP. AS A RESULT...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
ACTUALLY END UP QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MONDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. STILL THOUGH...HIGHS ARE AIMED BETWEEN
60-68 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AGAIN NUDGED DOWN TUES
NIGHT LOWS 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL KEPT
THEM SOLIDLY ABOVE RAW GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR MOST PLACES
BOTTOMING OUT 33-39.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LAST "TRULY
WARM" DAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS REASONABLY HIGH IN DRY
WEATHER...CANNOT 100 PERCENT DISCOUNT SOME ROGUE SPRINKLE
POTENTIAL AS BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO BRING A MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
COURSE OF THESE 24 HOURS. MUCH LIKE MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
AVERAGING 15-20 MPH. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKING A TOUCH COOLER THAN MON-TUES...AIMING FOR MID-
UPPER 50S NORTH OF I-80 TO MID- 60S IN KS ZONES. WINDS LIKELY TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY WED NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...COOLER AIR ARRIVES. WHILE ITS LOOKING
DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY DISTURBANCE...THE DAY
LOOKS TO CONTINUE RATHER BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WERE NUDGED DOWN 1-2 DEGREES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...BUT PRESENTLY
AIMED GENERALLY 42-49 FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS AGREE ON THE BIG
PICTURE THAT THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SPLIT UPPER
FLOW BETWEEN ONE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/BAJA
REGION AND ANOTHER LARGER-SCALE CANADA/GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THEY
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS BOTH TEMP AND PRECIP-WISE. IN
FACT...THE ECMWF REMAINS BONE-DRY LOCALLY...WHILE THE GFS HANGS
ONTO AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL. PER THE MULTI-MODEL BLEND USED
TO INITIALIZE THE LONG TERM FORECAST...HAVE SOMEWHAT RELUCTANTLY
HELD ONTO A LOW-CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE DAY DRY. WHILE HIGHS ARE OFFICIALLY
AIMED INTO THE LOW-MID 40S...EVEN THIS IS GETTING MORE UNCERTAIN
AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS IT COULD BE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
WARMER...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MAYBE 10 DEGREES COLDER. LOTS TO
SORT OUT HERE.

SATURDAY DAYTIME...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM BOTH
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
THE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AS WITH FRIDAY THOUGH...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
TEMPERATURES...AS ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST VERY
PRELIMINARILY AIMS FOR COLDER READINGS MAINLY 36-40...MODELS
SUGGEST THIS COULD EASILY TREND ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES COLDER OR
WARMER. EVEN IF MID-UPPER 30S DO END UP VERIFYING...ONE HAS TO
KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL NEAR-TO-JUST ABOVE AVERAGE...WHICH IS
EASY TO LOSE SIGHT OF AS WE CONTINUE TO BE "SPOILED" IN THIS
PROLONGED MILDER STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE AREA TO START THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO FINISH THE TAF PERIOD.

A BAND OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS LIKELY KGRI WILL
OBSERVE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL...THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS STRATUS AND ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...IT IS CURRENTLY BELIEVED VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AT KEAR SOONER THAN KGRI. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...SUSTAINED AT 20-25KTS
AND GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS TO START THE TAF PERIOD BUT DECREASING
TO AROUND 12KTS THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND
IS THEN EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO BREAK ANY DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES
GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS AIRPORTS. STAY TUNED AS ALWAYS FOR AT
LEAST MINOR FORECAST CHANGES...BUT THIS IS HOW THINGS CURRENTLY
STAND:

MONDAY JAN. 26:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 72 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64
- HASTINGS: RECORD 71 IN 2002...CURRENT FORECAST 64

TUESDAY JAN. 27:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 68 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 61
- HASTINGS: RECORD 67 IN 1934...CURRENT FORECAST 62

WEDNESDAY JAN. 28:
- GRAND ISLAND: RECORD 63 IN 1986...CURRENT FORECAST 58
- HASTINGS: RECORD 69 IN 1931...CURRENT FORECAST 60

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH