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000
FXUS63 KGID 261152
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
652 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Another cool surface area of high pressure will slide south
southeast today out of the Dakotas and into Iowa by tonight. The
upper flow pattern continues to be a messy northwest flow regime,
with weak mid level disturbances and moisture resulting in
generally isolated areas of light precipitation. This will again
be the case today in what will be yet another cooler than normal
late June day with isolated showers and weak thunderstorms around
the area. Most areas will see little if any rainfall, but a few
areas that can catch an actual thunderstorm may be able to pick up
0.25 to 0.50 inches today. Although no area is currently expecting
a good chance of rain, Nebraska zones will likely be the slightly
more favored area for catching a shower this morning into early
this afternoon with the better chances for rain slipping south
into north central Kansas by late afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm potential...Instability will be higher today than in
recent days, but still not overly high. MLCAPE values could climb
to around 1000 J/KG along I-80 around noon with this higher
instability axis slipping south into Kansas by late afternoon.
Deep layer 0-6 km shear values will likely be in the 45 to 50 kt
range. The instability will be the limiting factor for severe
weather for any storms that do form and most models generate at
least a few isolated storms. Given the strong shear and at least
marginal instability believe that a few marginally severe
thunderstorms are not out of the question this afternoon primarily
along and south of I-80, but not expecting anything too
widespread. The primary storm threats will be wind gusts to 60 mph
and quarter size hail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday:
The long-term forecast starts out warmer and breezy on
Tuesday as southerly flow increases ahead of the next shortwave that
is forecast to impact the area later in the evening/overnight. The
current forecast is for 20-30 MPH sustained winds with gusts to
around 35 MPH, especially along and west of Highway 281. That said,
GFS soundings indicate that some of these locations could gust to
near 40 MPH. Therefore, don`t be surprised if this forecast
increases in upcoming packages if these trends continue.

Chances for thunderstorms and beneficial rain return late Tuesday
evening into the overnight associated with a shortwave moving into
the area. My current expectation is for thunderstorms to develop
across western Nebraska during the late afternoon and evening,
eventually reaching central Nebraska and north-central Kansas around
the 9PM to 12AM timeframe. With elevated instability on the order of
1500-2000 J/kg, some of these storms could be severe. Some large
hail is possible, but the main threat may end up being damaging
winds as storms organize into bowing segments and propagate
southeastward into a 50-60kt low-level jet.

Wednesday:
Storms should clear the area Wednesday morning, but
redevelopment is possible during the afternoon and evening as high
temperatures approach 90 degrees. Most activity should remain
confined to the the vicinity of a cold front across the southeastern
third of the CWA. Again, these storms could be strong to severe,
although the highest threat appears to be centered just to our east,
stretching from central Kansas to central Iowa.

Thursday:
A warm front is expected to lift back through the area on
Thursday before another shortwave moves through the area Thursday
evening. While details are still pretty fuzzy, it appears that the
timing of this wave and the available moisture/instability will be
conducive to another round of strong to severe storms and
potentially beneficial rain.

Friday-Sunday:
Friday should remain mostly dry, and will be cooler
than the preceding couple days with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Late Friday night into Saturday morning, there is a chance for a few
showers or storms associated with an upper low dropping south
towards the area. Instability looks pretty limited, so the severe
threat is quite low. In fact, it may end up being just showers
without any thunder. That said, I`d like to see some consistency on
this trend before removing thunder from the forecast.

Slight precipitation chances and near-normal temperatures continue
through the weekend with an unsettled upper level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

There are several aviation concerns. The first centers around a
low stratus deck just to the west of KEAR with IFR ceilings in
Lexington at 630 am. Right now we keep these low clouds west of
our TAF sites, but it is not out of the question that perhaps KEAR
could see some of these lower clouds within the next few hours
this morning. The 2nd concern centers around the chance of
thunderstorms. There will be at least some potential for weak
isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of our TAF sites mainly
this morning and afternoon before shifting south this evening.
The wind will gradually shift throughout the day from westerly
this morning, to northerly this afternoon, and then easterly by
tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Wesely