Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 310808
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Latest trends in radar show the band of rain weakening and narrowing
as it moves to the east of the forecast area early this morning.
Surface analysis is a little messy with the outflow boundaries from
the storms, but it appears that the cold front is located somewhere
in the eastern part of the forecast area.

The main question this morning is when will the precipitation come
to an end across the forecast area. The upper level wave continues
to move through the eastern part of the forecast area and with the
front located in that area, have left some POPs in the east for
early this morning. The front lingers in the far southeast part of
the forecast area through the morning hours. There could be some
development or just showers and thunderstorms lingering in the
southeast into the afternoon hours. Most of the short term models
move the precipitation out of the area during the late morning into
the early afternoon.

Tonight there is a surface high pressure that will build into the
area. The high should bring clearing skies starting this afternoon
and continuing into the overnight hours. Winds should become light
and variable.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The mid period starts off with two upper disturbances across the
main CONUS. The first is north and slightly east over northern
Minnesota. The second is south near Baja. This leaves the Central
Plains and Nebraska mainly dry. The southern disturbance moves off
to the northeast impacting areas mainly south of the Oklahoma/Kansas
border. Surface high pressure will slide overhead and winds will be
light throughout Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Expected high temperatures on Wednesday are in the upper 70s. By
Thursday southerly flow returns at the surface with a couple weak
pulses in the upper levels moving across as energy follows the
upper wave across the northern Plains. This will bring some
scattered clouds, but overall it will be a pleasant day with highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s. Some guidance indicates the chance
for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, but right now
confidence is very low on how it will evolve and have left it dry.

In the long term a more potent wave will be moving across the
northern Plains on Friday which will cause a front to move across
the area. This front will be the focus for another chance for
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Highs will
be in the low 80s before the front moves through.

Saturday through Monday Nebraska will be on the back side of the
upper trough over the Great Lakes. This will keep the area in
northwest flow aloft and any small disturbance that dives into the
trough could bring chances for clouds and precip. Currently
guidance keeps most precipitation across eastern Nebraska, but if
the waves shift any it could impact south central Nebraska/north
central Kansas. High pressure will be building in through the
weekend and the surface high will move through on Sunday/Sunday
night. Temperatures will be near normal for the beginning of June
in the upper 70s through the weekend and the start of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The main line of thunderstorms have moved through the terminal
areas. Rain should end at KEAR soon and within the next hour or so
at KGRI. There have been a few gusty winds in the rain shield
behind the main line of storms. Clouds will clear out of the area
today and winds will be fairly light.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...JCB


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