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000
FXUS63 KGID 222332
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Quiet weather expected over the next 24 hours, with pattern
becoming active again by Thursday.

Water vapor imagery along with 12Z upper air analysis showing upper
ridge building into the Rockies, with trough axis now over the
midwest U.S.  Surface high pressure has built in over Neb and has
pushed the cold front well south to along the KS/OK border. Dew
point temperatures have fallen 15-20 degrees in the past 24 hrs and
were sitting in the comfortable lower to mid 50s at lunchtime.

The surface high should slide slowly southeast tonight and be
located in eastern KS by sunrise Wed. This will allow for light
winds and clear skies overnight, with winds gradually switching back
to the south and picking up a bit on Tue. Low level moisture return
will be on the slow side so Wed should once again be quite pleasant
with mainly clear skies, lower RH, and high temps just a tad below
normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Pattern transition again starting Thu and working into the
weekend as the next wave moves on to the Pac NW coast and breaks
down the western ridge. The various operational models are similar
in this basic scenario. Where they differ is in the timing and
strength of various shortwaves that are expected to move across
the central Plains. 12Z operational run of the GFS seems pretty
wet in the Thu night - Sat night time frame, while the EC not so
much. Have to think that with the pattern being similar to past
week, parts of the CWA will certainly see rain. However, I find it
hard to agree with likely PoPs on Fri and Sat that are being
generated by superblend, so will back off on those a little bit.

It does look like the ridge will then build back into the Rockies
early next week, limiting rain chances. In spite of off and on
precip chances during the next 7 days due to pattern changes, the
high temps are actually expected to be fairly steady from the low to
mid 80s, which is a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. High
pressure over the area will kept winds light in the overnight
period. The winds are expected to increase and become southerly by
mid- morning.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald