


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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201 FXUS63 KGID 182338 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 638 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slight risk of severe weather across a few northern portions of the area tonight and across a few western portions tomorrow is in place. The better areawide storm chances fall Saturday afternoon and night. - Temperatures are expected to continue to rise across the next several days, approaching the 100s for a few of our Kansas and far southern Nebraska areas SAT, MON, TUE and WED. - The warmest day of the week looks to fall Tuesday with highs in the 90s to low 100s and warmest towards the south. - Heat Indices above 100 degrees will be possible for a few southern areas Saturday and Sunday with widespread coverage starting Monday. _ Off and on storm chances up to 20-35% return each day Sunday through next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Tonight... A warm front jumping overhead today has lifted temperatures up to around 10-15 degrees warmer from Thursday. Southerly winds peaking near 15-20 MPH this afternoon will lighten some overnight, becoming easterly again Saturday and Sunday as higher pressure across the Great lakes region pulls away. Precipitation chances tonight remain in place across our northern portions of the area up to 25-35%. A cold front hanging to the northwest will sweep down, potentially knocking up a few storms between 8PM and 1AM. There is some question still to how broad the coverage of storms may become. Any storms that does develop will likely stay north of the Tri-Cities. It is not entirely impossible for an isolated storm to pop out further south, though the best chances realistically lie towards the north. A severe storm or two may be possible tonight, though impacts should not become widespread. An SPC slight risk clips portions of Valley, Greeley, Howard and Sherman counties. Saturday... The overall better storm environment and storm potential falls Saturday afternoon and night in which storms will likely become more widespread across the area. The BIG question yet to be well understood is where and when storms will fire. Condition wise, increasing temperatures should overall help increase buoyancy with low to mid level lapse rates projected to range between 6-8C/km. These thermal profiles point toward increased instability with CAPE values now projected to approach and in a few north areas, potentially exceed 4,000J/kg. Together these parameters are sufficient enough to support strong updrafts and hail growth. Moisture is also expected to be sufficient enough for convective development (low 70s dewpoints with 1.5-2" PWATs). A few limiting factors that leave some questions for the severe potential include the presence of a few afternoon clouds that could limit diurnal heating and the magnitude of instability as well as the general lack of deep layer shear from generally weaker flow aloft (<30kts of bulk shear). Models currently diverge into two scenarios that point towards different answers to when, where as well as how impactful storm could become. Given a broad upper level wave, storms could be able to develop anywhere across eastern Wyoming/Colorado to central Nebraska between 4 to 8PM. The closer to central Nebraska these storms develop, the overall better severe potential as well as greater overall storm impacts will be possible for the area. This scenario is currently featured well by the HRRR model. However, if storms are not successful in developing until later in the evening or further to the west, such as shown by the NAMNEST model, then the sever potential threat should diminish some, but not entirely. In this case, storms may arrive to the area much later, closer to 11PM to 3AM. The SPC outlook for Saturday features a slight risk across our west (closer to where storms would be approaching from) with a marginal risk covering the rest of the area. Large hail up to ping pong size with gusty winds up to 60 MPH would be the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall, especially given the higher than average PWAT values, can`t be ruled out as well. Sunday and Beyond... A few showers lingering Sunday morning from any Saturday night storm remnant may be followed by yet another areawide 20-30% chance of evening to nighttime storms. Though severe potential as well as storm coverage will likely be less in magnitude compared to Saturday, another passing shortwave disturbance prompts another SPC marginal risk to return to the full area. General pop up thunderstorm chances return each day through the remainder of the 7-day forecast period (chances up to 35%). The severe potential beyond Sunday is just to far out to nail down any specifics at this point in time. Besides the precipitation/storm potential, The main story next week will be the heat. The main contributor, other than the fact that we are reaching our climatologically speaking warmest part of the year, will be from a strengthening south central U.S. ridge. The weak zonal flow that has stayed fairly consistent over the area, will be pushed northward as mid to upper level heights rise over the south central U.S. This ridging pattern should stick around for several days, aiding in compressional (adiabatic) warming. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will gradually rise a few degrees each day, toping out for the week between the 90s to low 100s on Tuesday. 100 degree temperatures will be possible in a few Kansas and far southern Nebraska areas Monday through Wednesday afternoon. In addition, heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees across the full area during these days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR ceilings are expected to move out of the area this evening. Low ceilings with possible fog may return around 10z tonight and continue until around 15z/16z. Winds will generally be out of the southeast tonight until around 09z-12z when they will transition towards the east northeast. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Schuldt