Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL COLORADO...ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A LARGE BAND OF WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE DAKOTAS
THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS. ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT EAST...REACHING THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW DEPARTS...ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RUNS SEEM
TO HAVE AN ACCURATE HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO DEPENDED ON THESE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW...A PRECIPITATION LULL IS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER...BEGINS TO EJECT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION. LEANED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AS GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
SOME HESITATION ON HOW WARM TO GO OVER EAST COLORADO WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 TO HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
PRECIPITATION NEARLY OR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND A DRY FORECAST
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW
60S WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SNOWPACK IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...NAM/ECMWF BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GFS AND CURRENT 18Z NAM MUCH DRIER AND NOT GENERATING PRECIP THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A BIT
FURTHER EAST. GFS/ECMWF BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOWS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE PERHAPS INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACHING WINDY CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND HIGH
TO OUR EAST INCREASES.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IS LIMITED IN ITS MOVEMENT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...TIMING OF WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
PRESENT TIME. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT AROUND 50 FOR HILL CITY AND
NORTON. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

KGLD AND KMCK WILL START OUT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING
TO IFR THIS EVENING. FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF -RA AND IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE CIGS STAY AT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIFR CONDITIONS 06Z TO 15Z...WITH AN ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE KEEPING STRATUS OVER THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...BUT A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY CIGS WILL START TO LIFT TO
IFR THEN MVFR IN KGLD AND MVFR IN KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CLT



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