Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 072324
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
624 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH A
HIGH ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ROUGHLY OVER
BERMUDA. AS USUAL FOR SUMMER IN THE REGION, THESE FEATURES WILL PLAY
A LARGER ROLE OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME, DRY AIR ALOFT
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
DESPITE THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, AND THE PRESENCE OF
THE NEARLY-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM DALLAS TO
INDIANAPOLIS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE DRIFTED
INTO THE AREA, BUT FEW IF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS POINT.

THAT SURFACE FRONT MIGHT STILL HELP INITIATE A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HUNTSVILLE CWFA
OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL PLAY LESS AND LESS OF A ROLE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE,
CULMINATING IN A 5940-5960M HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY. SO THE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK,
WARRANTING NO MORE THAN A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. (THE
GFS FORECASTS A STRANGELY WET PERIOD THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN.) AT THE SAME TIME,
HIGHS WILL TICK UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS LIKELY
REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS PEAKS
AROUND 96-97, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE; HEIGHTS WOULD NEED TO BUILD A
BIT MORE TO CONSIDER GOING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 GIVEN THE
INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE.

THIS HOTTER PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, AS THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RETROGRADE TO WEST TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THAT WILL ALLOW A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE, AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
MODESTLY. DESPITE THE PATTERN SHIFT, NONE OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES
PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, SO TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
ROUGHLY NORMAL FOR MID-JULY.

BCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...GENERALLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST
TO 15-20KT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT AND AGAIN FROM 15-00Z
WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO INFREQUENT TO MENTION.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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