Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 050500
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1004 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...WE WILL BE UPDATING THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS APPARENTLY DEVELOPING IN A REGION OF BROAD BUT VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO GRAZE THE CENTRAL
TENNESSEE VALLEY -- ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THIS CHANGE...THE
REMAINING ELEMENTS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...WITH PERHAPS A
FEW UPPER 60 DEGREE READINGS IN FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA. AREAS OF FOG
MAY BECOME A CONCERN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOCATIONS CURRENTLY
RECEIVING RAINFALL...AND THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE UPDATED
WEATHER GRIDS.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...CURRENT RADAR DATA SUGGESTS SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL
PASS SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO HSV WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS TO
WARRANT VCSH. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PCPN...LGT/VRBL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY BR/FG BTWN 05/09-14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED -- WITH SCT AC BENEATH BKN/OVC CS. MID/HIGH-LEVEL CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THICKEN/LOWER TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO ARND 5-10 KTS FROM THE WSW. THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 22Z...AS A STRONGER
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT THRU AT
LEAST END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD -- AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. SFC WINDS
TOMORROW EVENING WILL BACK TO THE SE AND DECREASE TO ARND 5 KTS OR
LESS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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