Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 240731
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
231 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Temps at 230 am across the cwa were in the low/mid 70s with low 70
dewpoints. Sky cover was mainly some sct ci clouds. The early mrng wx
map shows a weak upper low centered over west central MS while a
large upper high extends across much of the swrn US. The main upper
jet is along the nrn tier of states with most sfc boundaries well
north of the TN valley.
As for heat indices today, noticed that HUN dewpoints mixed down
into the upper 60s on Saturday which will likely do about the same
this aftn. Thus will go with aftn dewpoints arnd 70 degrees and high
temps in the mid 90s. This combo will produce aftn heat indices
between 100 and 105 degrees with the highest heat indices over nw AL.
Attm it looks like most locations across the cwa should stay below
criteria for a heat advisory. Otherwise the weak upper low and
daytime heating will kick off sct shra/tsra beginning by the late
mrng hours and continuing into the aftn. Pcpn will begin to taper off
by the evening and should be over by midnight.
Monday will continue to be hot with highs in the mid 90s and heat
indices between 100 and 105 degrees, with nw AL having the highest
values. Again most locations should stay below heat advisory
criteria since models were showing a little better aftn mixing of
dewpoints. Also expect more aftn/evening sct shra/tsra.
By Tuesday models show a cdfnt trying to move south but stalls out
somewhere over KY. This may produce a few more clouds across the area
which should keep temps a few degrees cooler along with a little
better chc of shra/shra.
On Wednesday GFS shows two large upper highs, one over the wrn US and
the other over much of the sern US. This will put an upper wave over
much of the central part of the country, including the TN valley.
Thus it looks like an unsettled wx pattern is setting up by the mid
to end of next week with higher chances of pcpn and cooler temps due
to more expected cloud cover.
(Issued 1211 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: Remnant cirrus from previous convection should
gradually fade during the overnight, with dry weather expected.
Residual moisture from recent heavy rain (especially over NE Alabama
and Southern Middle Tennessee) could result in the formation of fog
late tonight. Given that neither KMSL and KHSV received much if any
rainfall during Saturday, opted to keep the TAF fog/mist free. That
being said with decreasing clouds and light winds, patchy fog cannot
be ruled out before daybreak. Fair weather cumulus should form during
mid/late Sunday morning. Somewhat drier conditions in the mid levels
should help limit convection development.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 95 73 96 74 / 30 20 30 20
Shoals 96 75 97 75 / 30 20 30 20
Vinemont 93 73 93 73 / 30 20 30 20
Fayetteville 92 70 92 72 / 30 20 30 20
Albertville 94 72 92 73 / 30 20 30 20
Fort Payne 93 72 93 72 / 30 20 30 20
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