Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 262019
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SPARK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOUTH FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP A MOISTURE FEED AND HELP THE STORMS
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NWRN CWA ARE BEING FOCUSED ALONG AN INCREASING
RIDGE OF HIGH CAPE VALUES THAT INTERSECT WITH DECENT THETA-E
VALUES IN NORTHERN OHIO. THIS SOURCE REGION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO AND AWAY FROM ILN CWA...AND THE SOUTHEAST MOVING
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WILL SKIRT NORTHERN CWA AND METRO
COLUMBUS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS COVERED WELL BY THE
CONVECTIVE WATCH THAT IS OUT UNTIL 9 PM. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO PERSIST AND WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE WITH THE SETTING SUN.

OVERNIGHT ANOTHER CONVERGENT AREA IS BEING PROGGED TO SET UP
BETWEEN CINCY AND INDY WITH A SIMILAR STORM MOTION. THIS SETUP
WILL BE FURTHER BUOYED BY AN INCREASING MOISTURE FEED OVERNIGHT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER ANY PARTICULAR AREA IS
INCREASED AND SO THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA.
WOULD HAVE LIKED TO NOT INCLUDE SOME COUNTIES HERE OR THERE WITH
THIS FLOOD WATCH BUT THE MODELS ARE SUPPORTING TWO SOLUTIONS WITH
NORTHERN ENERGY AND A SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND EITHER REMAINS A VIABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
THEN GET AN ADDED KICK OF ENERGY AND UPWARD MOTION WITH A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING INTO THE AREA. TRIED TO SHOW AN EASTWARD
MOVE TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE STORMS WITH THE FLOOD
WATCH...CANCELLING SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK AND STRIPPING A
TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES LATER IN THE MORNING. IN THE EASTERN 1/2
OR SO OF CWA...STORMS THAT ARE ONGOING WILL BECOME MORE DISCRETE
AND HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ROTATION WITH THE UPPER
LOW MOVING IN. THIS WOULD ENHANCE THEIR CORES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOS DUE TO THE WIND PROFILES. THE STRONGER STORMS LATER IN
THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL SO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER IN TIME FOR THIS AREA.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THE
WINDS TURN WEST...MARKING A SHUTOFF TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
REDUCING THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO PERSIST.

THE ACTUAL AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT CROSS UNTIL OVERNIGHT
AND THE COLD AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE NORTH UNDER A PRETTY SOLID OVERCAST DECK.
TRANSITIONED THUNDERSTORMS TO SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE H5 TROF LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT IS
DROPPING INTO NORTHERN OHIO. THIS COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE AN
ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY.
SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET MONDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

NW FLOW AT H5 WILL KEEP COOL AIR ALOFT ON TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MORE H5 ENERGY
SWINGS INTO THE ERN US TROF ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PRODUCING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA.

AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS IN THE UPPER TROF...MODELS CUT OFF THE
LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS KCMH AND KLCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WORKS INTO
NORTHERN OHIO. WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL DECREASE CIGS AND VSBYS AT THE TAF
SITES AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH. EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY MID DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ034-042-051-060-061-070-071-077-078.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ026-035-043>046-052>056-062>065-072>074-
     079>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ089>096.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ097-098.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ099-100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ058-066-073>075-080.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR INZ050-059.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.