Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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882
FXUS61 KILN 240556
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1256 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to move
northeast of the region, but cold air behind the system will
keep cloudy skies in the forecast through tomorrow. Dry
conditions will return as high pressure moves into the
southeastern states on Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm up going into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper level disturbance and associated surface trof will move
east/southeast of the region by early morning. Scattered rain
and/or snow showers across the southern/southeastern CWFA
will then taper off. Little to no snow accumulation is
expected. Thereafter, in the CAA, we may see a few flurries, so
have continued with a chance of flurries overnight.

Lows tonight will bottom out in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The coldest 850mb/700mb temperatures expected this week will
move through the middle Ohio Valley on Wednesday afternoon. This
will set up Wednesday as the coolest day of the week (lower to
middle 30s), and also another very cloudy day, with RH near/at
saturation at the top of the mixed layer through the afternoon.
This RH should begin to break up by evening as temperatures
aloft begin to warm. Flurries were added to Wednesday as well,
with some weak ascent also expected in advance of yet another
shortwave moving through the area. If this shortwave continues
to trend toward being better defined and slightly stronger, as
it did in the 12Z model cycle, some PoPs and light accumulations
may need to be added in later forecasts.

On Wednesday night, heights will begin to rise quickly, as
surface high pressure makes its closest approach to the region
(though it will be centered well to the south). As is usually
the case, this position in the overall pattern supports the
coolest min temps for the period, with light surface winds and
skies beginning to clear. Forecast min temps have been lowered
by several degrees -- now ranging from the lower to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridging will push east across the region Thursday
into Friday. An associated surface high pressure will be
centered across our area Thursday morning before beginning to
shift off to the east through the day. This will help keep us
dry on Thursday with temperatures a few degrees above normal.
Dry conditions are also expected Thursday night into Friday. As
we start to get on the back side of the high, southwesterly low
level flow/WAA will be on the increase. This should help push
highs on Friday into the low to mid 50s.

Mid level short wave energy will drop down out of the upper Midwest
on Saturday and across the upper Ohio Valley through Sunday, helping
to push an associated cold front east across the region Sunday
morning. Ahead of this, there will be an increasing chance of rain
showers Friday night with pcpn then becoming more widespread
Saturday into Saturday evening. There is some uncertainty with
possible energy riding up along the front Sunday and just how long
any pcpn will linger across our area. For now, will go ahead and
trim pops back to chance category through the second half of the
weekend. Ptype will be all rain initially, but as CAA develops on
the back side of the front, there will be a mix with and then
possible transition over to snow through the day on Sunday. Highs on
Saturday will be in the low to mid 50s, with some non diurnal
temperatures then possible through Sunday as the front moves through.

A few snow showers may linger into Monday depending on just how fast
the upper level trough takes to pull out of the area. Ridging and
drier conditions will then work back into the region through mid
week.  Temperatures will remain near seasonal readings through the
later part of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak H5 s/w moving through the flow is causing an area of light
snow across the tafs. This area will move east of the tafs in
the first few hours of the period, plus continued caa will keep
the possibility of a stray shower throughout the night. Some
obs around central IN are indicting freezing rain. Will have to
keep an eye on this and see if it moves e into the tafs.
Ceilings should remain MVFR through the rest of the night.

Another s/w is forecast to move east across the region today.
Some weak low level forcing combining with caa should cause
more snow flurries or showers, so continued with a VCSH mention.
MVFR ceilings will persist through the day with heights likely
rising to around 2500 feet by 18Z.

Ceiling should rise to VFR towards 00Z as the disturbance pulls
east of the region and high pressure begins to build in.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Sites



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