Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261804
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
104 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNDER SCT
CIRRUS. GOING HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD BASED ON ADVECTING
5-6C PLUME ON 925MB SURFACE. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS TOWARD 20KTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. H5 TROF
TONIGHT...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE SFC LOW OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER PUSHING A
SMALLER AREA OF QPF QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A BETTER SHOT OF PCPN INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS TO LINGER PCPN
A LITTLE LONGER...SO THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. HELD ONTO PCPN
CHANCE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SE HALF.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
50S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RETURN FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST SWLY WIND
GUSTS /17KTS OR SO/ ACROSS THE TAF SITES. INCREASING MOISTURE
AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW FOR A BKN CIG TO SPREAD OVER THE
SITES...LIKELY FROM 3KFT TO 4KFT FROM EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. TOWARD SUNRISE...SOME DRYING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
WILL LIKELY LIFT CIGS INTO THE 5-6KFT RANGE. APPROACH OF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE SAT AFTN WILL BRING A
THREAT OF SHOWERS BY 18Z ESPECIALLY DAY/CVG/LUK/ILN...AND THESE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TO CMH/LCK LATER SAT AFTN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY FOLLOW.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...BINAU
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...BINAU






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