Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 231602
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1102 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A LARGE SWATH OF
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL LINGER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING FORECAST. AS
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TODAY...MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER...MATCHING WELL WITH
THE QPF SIGNAL FROM THE MODEL SUITE. WITH STRONG AGREEMENT...HRRR
DATA WAS USED TO HELP REFINE POPS...PROVIDING SOME DETAIL AND
TIMING FOR THE 100-PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THERE ARE NO BIG
CHANGES FOR THE QPF AMOUNT (GENERALLY A LITTLE UNDER AN INCH) OR
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...THOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST ONLY A MINOR
ADJUSTMENT UPWARDS WAS NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 VORT MAX IS BEGINNING TO PULL
OUT TO THE N. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO S/W ENERGY THAT WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG H8
JET NOSES IN THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING FOCUS THE LIFT. MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
ACROSS S...BUT TAPERED POPS DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE STRONG WAA TODAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AREA OF CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PUSH N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THEN AS THE NOSE OF THE H8 JET PUSHES NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM S TO N.

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW THAT LIFTS THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS AFFECTS THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
GFS REMAINS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND QUICKER WITH THE FRONT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH THE LOW
AND TO PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. NAM IS SHOWING SOME SFC INSTABILITY SO
ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH FROPA MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SE INDIANA TO AROUND 60 IN THE EXTREME E. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL GET PULLED DOWN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. GUSTS
OVER 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND KEPT POPS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE MID 30 AND MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ILN/S FA BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON WED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EAST THRU ILN/S FA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL BRING
SNOW IN WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. SOME PCPN MIX WITH BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER ECMWF SOLN
AND HAVE LIMITED ANY MIX TO THE SE. BEST POPS ACRS THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE SFC WAVE. EARLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO NEAR 40 SE.

IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PSBL THURSDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY PROVIDING CONTD COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S NW TO THE UPR 30S SE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION AS MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS
WESTERLY. A QUICK RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE RETREATING HIGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WAA PCPN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TAF SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD GENERALLY DRY...BUT A
SOLID AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN MFVR
VISIBILITIES...WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN THAT
MAY LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR DURING THE RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT A GRADUAL
LOWERING SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE A SLIGHT EXCEPTION...AS THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...MAKING IFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY
RAIN A LITTLE LESS LIKELY. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
MORNING.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST...BUT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT ON MONDAY. AS
WIND FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SPEEDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. GUSTS INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY (SUNDAY)...AND WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY
MORNING...WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 KNOTS APPEAR VERY LIKELY...AND
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS





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