Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 200535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1235 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

High pressure and dry conditions will build into the region
through Monday. Dry weather will then continue through much of
the week with temperatures remaining below normal.


Northwest mid level flow with surface ridge over the MS VLY
building east across the region overnight. Latest IR satl
imagery shows clearing over all but the northeast counties.
As low level flow continues to transition from cyclonic to
anti-cyclonic this trend will continue with clearing taking
place. Based on temperature trends, have made minor adjustment a
little colder with temperatures overnight. Overnight lows will
be mostly in the mid 20s, with upper 20s in some urban


The surface high will shift east to off of the southeast coast
Monday into Monday night. This will lead to increasing
southwesterly low level flow across our area. With a dry airmass
in place, expect mostly clear skies Monday and Monday night.
This will also allow for temperatures to modify somewhat with
highs on Monday in the mid to upper 40s.


Models suggest a rather tranquil period featuring surface high
pressure for the most part. Stronger weather systems may stay far to
the north, with a notable lack of moisture advection to the Ohio
Valley on a west to northwest flow aloft.

After high pressure brings dry weather early Tuesday, a disturbance
crossing the Great Lakes may bring a few showers to northwestern
locations Tuesday afternoon. Brisk winds and colder temperatures
will arrive Wednesday with high pressure centered over the Central
CONUS. As this expansive area of high pressure travels across the
Ohio Valley to the East Coast, dry weather is expected to continue
Thursday and Friday. Another disturbance traversing the Great Lakes
may bring a few showers of rain and snow Friday night and Saturday.
Look for a return of high pressure and dry air for Sunday.

Temperatures will vary with respect to the disturbances, featuring
the typical warm advection ahead of the disturbances followed by
cold advection behind. Expect highs around 50 on Tuesday under warm
advection and south winds, falling to the 30s Wednesday due to cold
advection on a northwest flow. Readings are forecast to climb back
into the 40s Thursday through Saturday, before dropping back into
the 30s Sunday.


A mid level trough will move away from the region today,
bringing back a quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft. At the surface,
a ridge of high pressure will nose into the region this morning,
then its ridge axis will shift southeast through the day. Some
high clouds will move into the area as a weak disturbance
rotates east. Winds will become south, with local gusts up to
20 knots near the northern terminals between 16Z and 22Z.

For tonight, weak disturbance moves east, but more high level
clouds will approach from the northwest as a mid level
disturbance drops southeast into the upper Mississippi River
Valley/western Great Lakes. Low pressure and a cold front with
this feature will begin tightening the surface pressure gradient
overnight. Above the surface, a fairly decent low level jet will
move southeast into the region. This will bring the threat for
non-convective LLWS conditions, developing between 03Z and 06Z.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




LONG TERM...Coniglio
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