Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 201801

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

A mild airmass will settle across the region today in the wake of
a warm frontal passage. The next chance for rain will then be on
Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves through the region.
Temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend.


The steady rains of last night have moved north of the fa. Radar
is still picking up some lighter echoes, which are probably some
areas of drizzle. So have transitioned from rain shower wording to
drizzle for the next few hours. The drizzle chances should end
from sw to ne.

Still looking at highs this afternoon ranging from the mid 50s in
the northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast.


Brief mid level ridging will weaken overnight with our area
remaining in broad southwesterly flow tonight into Saturday. This will
allow for developing isentropic lift across the region.
Initially, deeper moisture will be lacking tonight so think any
shower activity will be spotty. We will then moisten up through
the day on Saturday with an increasing chance of showers through
the day and then continuing into Saturday night. Some weak
instabilities will develop through the afternoon hours and this
could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. Think the best chance
for any thunder would be across our southern areas Saturday
afternoon into possibly Saturday evening. In continued WAA, highs
on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid
60s across the south. An upper level low will push east into the
Southeastern United States through the day on Sunday. Ahead of
this, some weak mid level energy will eject northward toward the
Ohio Valley so will hang on to chance pops through the rest of the
weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with highs on
Sunday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


As the low moves ENE going into Monday, and with precipitable
water values continuing to remain high for January (near or just
under an inch), an increase in rain chances will eventually occur
through Monday and Monday night -- especially in the eastern half
of the forecast area. Overall model differences with respect to
timing are small (when considering longitudinal position) but
placement of the low / forcing / precipitation remain a little
less clear.

Once the low has moved from south of the region to southeast of the
region, a switch to northerly flow will allow for a gradual drop in
temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Generally dry conditions
are expected on Tuesday, as a narrow ridge arrives into the area.
Forecast specifics become less certain by Monday night and Tuesday,
with GEFS 500mb height plots showing a wide range in both amplitude
and timing of the ridge (and the next wave following behind it).
What appears fairly certain is that warmer-than-normal conditions
will continue through Wednesday, before a cold front moves through
the area at some point on that day, helping to bring in some colder
air for the end of the week. Confidence is low with regards to
precipitation chances with this front, as GFS/ECMWF suggest it will
be lacking in deep moisture.

With broad troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Thursday, some light precipitation may develop -- and temperatures
during the low end of the diurnal cycle may be cool enough to
support some snow.


Warm front is now north of the tafs and ceiling are coming up.
Cigs across the srn tafs are a mixture of VFR and MVFR, with MVFR
across the nrn TAFS. Expect this trend to continue with all the
srn tafs VFR within the next few hours. It will be close whether
the nrn tafs reach VFR, but decided to follow the majority of the
guidance and leave them MVFR.

The region will remain warm sectored throughout the period. Low
level mositure will remain high and expect cigs to gradually lower
overnight back to MVFR and for many locations IFR. Also, MVFR fog
will be possible.

Expect a recovery of cigs and vsbys again tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible into Saturday, and then late
Sunday into Wednesday.




LONG TERM...Hatzos
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