Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 022111
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
511 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES MORE LIMITED OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A FRONT STALLED NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS HOWEVER IN THE
STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE SFC LOW. THIS CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN
OUR NRN KY COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD NORTH.
WENT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WITH
A LITTLE LOWER POP LATER IN THE NIGHT. WENT DRY NORTH OF THE U.S.
35 CORRIDOR. WITH VERY LITTLE FLOW OVER THE REGION...THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ARE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT TO COVER THIS
THREAT.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE TYPICAL NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT
WILL BE IN PLACE. UPPER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...UP TO MID 60S
IN NRN KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW JOURNEY EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SAME PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HIGHEST POPS IN KENTUCKY WITH DECREASING POPS AS YOU
HEAD NORTH. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NRN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY...TAPERING UP TO SLIGHT CHC POP IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WITH
THE SFC LOW IN THE VICINITY PROVIDING LIFT...WILL KEEP THE FFA
GOING UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
HELP BRING SOME DRYING TO THE REGION AS IT PUSHES THE BOUNDARY A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER LINGERING CHANCES IN THE EVENING...THE
LATER HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY WILL REMAIN ON THE FRIDGE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WERE KEPT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN...VALUES
SHOULD COME BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER KENTUCKY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE EAST COAST AND THIS HAS APPARENTLY
SLOWED THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOUND TUESDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED
BEYOND THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THEY DEVELOP...IT LOOKS SIMILAR
TO THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH FREQUENT PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HAVE HIGHER CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MUTED AND GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE SAME REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KCVG/KLUK WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECT THE BETTER THUNDER
THREAT TO GENERALLY REMAIN TO THEIR SOUTH. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN THE BEST THREAT FOR THIS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. PCPN WILL BE DIURNALLY
ENHANCED SO EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME MVFR BR/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. WOULD THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES CLOSER TO
WHERE THE BETTER PCPN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089-090-
     094>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...JGL






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