Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 252345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
645 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

In the wake of an upper level disturbance, high pressure will
build in the midwest and settle south of the Ohio Valley
tonight. Zonal upper level flow and southerly surface flow will
then combine to permit a moisture feed from the Gulf, and a
disturbance moving with the zonal flow aloft will initiate
showers over the region Sunday night and Monday. A weakly
inverted trough at the surface will help move these showers
northward on Monday.


H5 trough is currently over the CWA in a n-s orientation, and
will push east and out of the Ohio Valley early this evening.
Warmer air at H8 will enter from the west tonight and erode any
leftover stratus or stratocu in favor of clear skies. This will
permit low temperatures to reach the upper teens to around 20 in
the west, low to mid 20s in the east where cloud cover will
linger some.


The break in the cloud cover Sunday with seasonal temperatures
will see increased cloud cover overnight with Gulf moisture
streaming through and pooling over the Ohio Valley. A weak
shortwave in the mean westerly flow will help wring out showers
from southwest to northeast, possibly beginning overnight Sunday
but likely holding off until the daytime hours Monday. Low
chance pops will increase after midnight and spread from the
southwest to the northeast overnight. Temperatures will only
drop into the 30s with weak warm advection and southerly flow
overnight. Precipitation type should be all rain.


An upper level disturbance will move across the region on Monday.
Temperature profiles suggest that although precipitation will start
out as a rain and snow mix, as warmer air works into the region
precipitation will change over to all rain.  After this feature
moves through there will be a brief lull in the precipitation until
moisture is drawn up into the region Monday night into Tuesday. Did
not go quite as high as the superblend during this time due to lack
of substantial forcing.  Due to having less precipitation went
slightly higher on temperatures for Tuesday.

With a surge of warm air in advance of the next system, well above
normal temperatures will continue for Wednesday. Have better
precipitation chances on Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low
pressure system and associated cold front approach and move through.
 There is some instability and therefore also have some thunder
chances with this system. Temperatures will dip down into the 30s
with the passage of the cold front.  Increased winds with this
system as model soundings are indicating some higher wind gusts. Did
not go as high as some of the model outputs were suggesting, however
trended away from superblend towards some higher gusts.

Some residual precipitation will be possible on Thursday with cooler
temperatures with trough in place.  Went colder than superblend on
Friday as models are consistent with cold pattern in place.  An
upper level disturbance is expected to work down into the region on
Friday.  There are some model differences in the exact placement in
this feature however with cold air in place expect any precipitation
to be in the form of snow.

Temperatures begin to moderate for Saturday as southerly flow
develops.  Dry conditions are expected during this time with high
pressure situated southeast of the region.


Cloud deck across the region at the beginning of the period is
primarily VFR, although there are still some pockets of MVFR
ceilings, especially in central Ohio, which could linger for a
few more hours. Otherwise, expect cloud to erode generally from
west to east overnight. West winds will decrease early in the
TAF period and then persist between 5 and 10 kt through the rest
of the night. Winds wind will back to southerly early Sunday and
strengthen slightly in the afternoon. Only expect some cirrus
which may thicken up late in the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into
Wednesday and then again on Thursday. Wind gusts up to 30 kt
possible Thursday.




NEAR TERM...Franks
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