Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 250210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
An upper level low over the Carolinas will continue to slowly
pull away from the region overnight. A few light showers or
sprinkles will be possible overnight over eastern Ohio and
eastern Kentucky. Weak high pressure will build into the area
Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. A cold front will push into the region on
Thursday and then stall out across the Ohio Valley through the
weekend. This will result in a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the second half of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Upper level low over the southeast to drift slowly east to the
southeast coast overnight and then track up the eastern seaboard
Tuesday. Low level east-southeast flow and weak 8H convergence
axis was resulting in a few very light rain showers over eastern
Ohio. As these showers move into ILN/s eastern counties they are
weakening and falling apart. Will continue to mention a very low
pop for a shower in the far east tonight. Otherwise, mid and low
level moisture will result in considerable cloudiness overnight.
These clouds should mitigate the development of widespread fog
but some river valley fog is not out of the question toward
sunrise, especially across the sw portion of ILN/s FA. Clouds
will keep temperatures mild tonight with lows generally around
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A narrow surface ridge axis will push east across our area
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will lead to some developing
low level southerly flow and weak WAA through the day on
Tuesday. This will result in decreasing clouds with highs on
Tuesday into the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models point to an unsettled weather pattern featuring a
persistent frontal boundary, enhanced by several waves of low
pressure, fed by a rich supply of moisture.
Area will be in a dry southerly flow between two low pressure
systems on Wednesday, with no precip expected. That will change
starting on Thursday when a cold front is forecast to swing through
from the west, bringing the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will wash out briefly under high
pressure Thursday night, before redeveloping as a warm front and
lifting across the region Friday to Sunday. This scenario suggests a
prolonged period for showers and thunderstorms to develop, lasting
through the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to push through
Monday, accompanied by more rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period. Highs in
the 80s Wednesday will be boosted by warm advection. Readings are
forecast to slide back into the 70s Thursday and Friday due to
precip and modest cold advection associated with the weakening cold
front. Mainly 80s are expected Saturday and Sunday with the area in
the warm sector. A retreat toward the near normal upper 60s will be
possible Monday behind the stronger cold front.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low level southeasterly flow will continue to lead to an
increase in and Low and mid level moisture tonight. Will
continue VFR CIGS as low as 4000 feet through the evening.
Model solutions show the development of low level moisture
late tonight. Have continued to show MVFR CIGs developing at
all but KCMH/KLCK late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Have also a mention of MVFR VSBY restriction in river fog at
KLUK. If clouds are thinner the potential exists for a period of
IFR VSBY restrictions at KLUK.
Expect the clouds and any fog to improve with VFR conditions
returning by mid morning.
East winds at 10 to 15 kts will diminish to less than 10 kts
overnight and then become southeast around 10 kts on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday through Saturday.