Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 030012
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
712 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area Saturday and move off to
the east Saturday night. An upper level disturbance will quickly
move across the region on Sunday. Another high will build in
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Low clouds remain across the area and extend well upstream. There
are some thin spots in northwest Ohio into southern Michigan. And
there is some potential for these to develop into breaks and move
into central Ohio. Otherwise, it appears that clouds will persist
through the night. Light echoes seen on radar have been producing
some sprinkles and expect this to continue into the evening,
possibly mixing with flurries, before ending. With expected cloud
cover, have opted to go a bit above guidance, closer to model 2 m
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build in Saturday and low level temperature
advection finally turns warm. So low clouds should finally erode.
But extensive high clouds will have already overspread the area by
the time this happens. So it appears that there will be little to
no sun.

Short wave will move out of the central Plains Saturday night and
pivot across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Sunday into
Sunday evening. This will result in the development of light
precipitation. It may start out as some very light rain/snow mix
but should change over to all rain by the time the bulk of the
precipitation moves in. It is not out of the question that it
could mix back in parts of the area before ending Sunday evening.
Precipitation amounts will average .10 inch or less with little or
no snow accumulation. Expect little variation in either highs or
lows from the past few days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be situated across the area at the start of the
long term allowing for a dry and calm start to the work week.
Multiple systems will move across the region through the week.

A large system will move up from the south late Monday night.  The
superblend and GFS seem to be a little fast with this system and the
trend in some of the models including the ECMWF has been toward a
slower solution therefore used this as a target of opportunity to
lean towards a slower solution.  With the warmer air being drawn up
into the region expect precipitation to generally be in the form of
rain through this event.

There will be lull in the precipitation on Wednesday before the next
system late Wednesday night into Thursday.  There is quite a bit of
model variation with this.  The GFS continues to be pretty dry while
the ECMWF brings more moisture into the region.  Went closer to the
wetter ECMWF solution.  The ECMWF has trended cooler therefore there
is the potential that some snow will also be possible on Thursday.

Models do agree that much colder air will then work down into the
region for the end of the long term.  With this pattern kept a
slight chance of precipitation chances in with the potential for
some lake effect snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another night of MVFR/ VFR cigs is likely this evening as an upper
level low over southeastern Canada slowly pulls east. Models have
tried to hint at some partial clearing occurring overnight near
KCMH/ KLCK terminals with low clouds redeveloping by sunrise
Saturday morning. High res models then try to develop some fog
where the clouds clear out. Looking upstream currently there is
not much clearing going on and have kept TAFs trended towards
clouds holding on. By Saturday afternoon GFS forecast soundings
are showing the SC deck eroding as the upper level low pulls east
while the NAM keeps the clouds in thick. Overall have trended TAFs
to rising CIGs Saturday evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible on Sunday
and also Monday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Haines



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