Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 301943
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES FROM AROUND MARION COUNTY
NORTHWEST TO AROUND KGLH AND A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ALSO...STORMS ARE PUSHING NORTH FROM
LOUISIANA TOWARD THE NATCHEZ AREA.

MICROBURST PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ADDITION TO SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DESPITE EXPECTED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...LESS FAVORABLE LAPES RATES
SHOULD LEAD TO A MUCH LOWER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WILL CARRY A
LIMITED RISK INTO THIS EVENING BUT NO MENTION TOMORROW.

WITH A TROF IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY EVEN CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN SPOTS. THIS WILL MAKE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING DIFFICULT LIKE TODAY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THE
TEMPERATURE AND POP GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
/SW/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...FRIDAY WE WILL HAVE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CWA. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODIFY SOME AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN US. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SITES ARE
CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID EVENING LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-10KTS
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  88  72  92 /  34  51  29  29
MERIDIAN      69  88  70  88 /  39  54  28  44
VICKSBURG     72  89  72  92 /  24  42  25  15
HATTIESBURG   72  88  73  92 /  29  59  35  34
NATCHEZ       74  89  73  92 /  24  58  28  10
GREENVILLE    73  91  74  91 /  18  28  23  25
GREENWOOD     72  89  73  88 /  21  40  33  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$



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