Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 161738 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1138 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to VFR ceilings will be the rule through the afternoon with
scattered light showers, especially around GLH. Scattered light
showers will continue into the evening as areas of fog begin forming.
After 17/06Z, LIFR/IFR ceiling will overspread the region while
visibilities will mostly stay MVFR. The exception will be at HBG
where calmer winds will allow LIFR ceilings and visibilities to
develop around 17/12Z once again. Conditions will begin improving
after 17/14Z./26/


Impressive cold core system lifting northward through the Plains as
seen in the water vapor imagery this morning. This has resulted in
some warm advection showers mainly over the western sections this
morning, but areas to the east will see some later with increased
heating/destablization. Not looking for any thunder though as mid
level warm layer continues the cap. Despite the cloud cover, mid 70s
still look attainable this afternoon as breaks manage to get some
warming sunshine on the ground./26/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...Mild conditions will continue across the forecast
area today with highs again warming into the low and middle 70s and
lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Clouds will also be
in abundance, with rain chances increasing throughout the period.
Winds will also be a bit more breezy as they generally become sustained
between 10-15 mph, with some gusts around 20 mph possible, especially
across the western half of the CWA.

Ridging aloft built into the region from the southeast, will cause
an upper level low to lift northeast from the Southern Plains towards
the Great Lakes region through tonight. During this time, southwest
flow aloft will increase across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
This will bring about an increase in moisture aloft over the region.

Meanwhile at the surface, a surface low will develop across the
Southern Plains and move likewise. As this surface low moves
northeast, a warm front currently oriented east to west near the
Highway 82 corridor, will lift north causing moisture at the surface
to also increase across the forecast area. This low will also drag a
cold front towards, and eventually into, the northwest portion of the
forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

While all of this will bring about an increase in rain chances over
the ArkLaMiss, today doesn`t look to be an entire washout. Shower
activity throughout much of the today period, currently looks to be
in the form of passing light warm advective showers, especially along
and east of the Interstate 55 corridor.  It doesn`t look like the
better rain chances will move in from the west until late this
afternoon and overnight, when the cold front approaches and moves
into the forecast area from the northwest. /19/

Tuesday through Sunday...A spring-like weather pattern will continue
over the ArkLaMiss through next weekend as the longwave ridge
remains parked over the southeastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary
will support showers and a few storms Tuesday, but expect the
convective activity to decrease as the ridge rebuilds.

An increasingly active southern stream will send a strong shortwave
trough through the Lower MS Valley region Thursday into Friday, with
another potentially stronger trough moving through during the
weekend. Both of these waves will increase instability, lift, and
moisture sufficiently for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall.
Guidance trends suggest an increasing potential for severe weather
given strong deep layer shear, but am not quite to the point of
including this in the HWO. In any case, the Thu-Sat period looks to
be quite active weather-wise, and heavy rainfall and flooding
potential will also need to be considered if trends continue.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain anomalously warm withlow
temperatures continuing to be above normal highs in some cases. It
looks like the earliest we might see any appreciable cooling will be
early next week. /EC/


Jackson       77  61  73  58 /  30  21  52  43
Meridian      76  59  75  58 /  19  16  31  36
Vicksburg     76  61  70  57 /  49  35  69  49
Hattiesburg   77  60  76  60 /  20  16  21  22
Natchez       75  63  72  59 /  38  28  58  38
Greenville    72  59  63  51 /  59  59  74  55
Greenwood     74  61  67  52 /  53  49  75  56




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