Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 200850
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
IN STORE AS 1020MB SURFACE HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DIG AND DEEPEN
TODAY...SWINGING A WEAK DRY FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY BUT LIKELY ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE N/NW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONAL ON MONDAY IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S. EVEN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...CHILLY NIGHT IN
STORE TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S. MEXMOS IS
FINE FOR BOTH PERIODS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES.

THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS MORE FROM THE N/NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE H900 TEMPS
WARMING SLIGHTLY...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS
THE AREA. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS TUESDAY THAN
MEXMOS...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE EURO MOS/METMOS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE
SW TO LOW 40S IN THE NE AND PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW
0.5 INCHES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE AREA. WENT NEAR MEXMOS FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE N/NE. /DC/

.LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE 7 DAYS AS
GENERAL RIDGING WILL EXIST NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
SEASONAL TYPE CONDITIONS AS WE FINISH OUT THE WEEK (WED-FRI) WITH
OUR FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE BACK END OF A REINFORCING COOL/DRY
PUSH OF AIR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND A BIT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT (HIGHER HEIGHTS)
WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND ALLOW FOR ABV NORMAL
TYPE CONDITIONS (HIGHS/LOWS) TO DEVELOP FOR SAT-MON WITH SOME 80-85
DEGREE READINGS MAKING A RETURN. BOTH THE EURO/GFS ADVERTISE ANOTHER
COOL FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND TUE...BUT CHANCES ARE THIS FROPA
WILL BE DRY AS WELL. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH KGTR/KGLH VIS/CIG
CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE AT
KGTR/KGLH BY 20/14-16Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE ALSO PSBL AT KMEI
BETWEEN 20/11-14Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY FROM THE N/NW AROUND 4-6KTS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      77  47  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     76  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   78  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  51  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    76  52  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     75  50  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/CME





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