Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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600
FXUS64 KJAN 051420 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
OVERALL MAIN CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST WERE TO UPDATE THE WINDS AS
THEY SEEMED A LITTLE ON THE HIGH END...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BODIES OF
WATER. VERY NICE DAY IS IN STORE WITH CLEAR SKIES AS UPPER TROUGH
DIGS DOWN INTO THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING OUR AREA BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL A CLEAR AND NICE DAY IS IN
STORE. 1019MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SE TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS MOVE E/NE.
EFFICIENT MIXING IS EXPECTED AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20-25KTS...WHICH WILL HELP
EFFICIENTLY WARM US INTO THE 70S. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT
CURVES. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N TO NW WINDS AROUND
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE PSBL. SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PSBL AT CBM AROUND 06/00Z BUT WILL BE THIN AT MOST. /DC/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN OMEGA BLOCKING RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES AS WELL AS AN MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. THE RE-
ENFORCING SURFACE FRONT WAS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

FOR THE PERIOD THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SPIN ABOUT
NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OMEGA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES
INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. FOR TODAY HI-RES MODELS SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS
OF AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
WORTH MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. WITH THE WINDS MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL GET DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SO
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF BY THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING FOR MIXING AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ON
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S THEN RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. NIGHTLY
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO AROUND 50 WEST FOR
TONIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S
WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT QUITE REACH ANY RECORD LOWS.
/17/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
IN A STATE OF TRANSITION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. LOW/TROF SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND LOOKS TO SHEAR
OUT WHILE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST. WHILE INCREASED WARMTH WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT EACH DAY
DURING THIS PERIOD...ONLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LARGE
DIURNAL RANGES. BY SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE REGION WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE 40/50S OF THE PAST DAYS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY.

MID LEVEL SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE WILL MEAN A RETURN
TO CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ABSENCE OF
ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO NO MORE THAN SCATTERED. WHILE LAPSE RATES AT PRESENT ARE QUASI-
MOIST ADIABATIC WITH CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE 20-30 KNOTS OF LOW LEVEL AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS WOULD INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION FOR AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL NEED TO WATCH
FUTURE DATA FOR TRENDS WITH THIS POSSIBILITY./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  48  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      72  44  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     75  48  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   76  48  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       76  49  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    73  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     73  47  75  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/26/22



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