Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
787
FXUS64 KJAN 281505 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1005 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...Forecast remains on track today. Only modifications
were to tweak hourly temps this morning to follow near term trends.
Highs will top out in the mid/upper 80s with overall dry air over the
region. This will continue to support limited fire danger across the
NE and east-central portions of the forecast area as afternoon min RH
values will bottom out in the 23-30% range. Fortunately surface
winds will be on the lighter side and range from 5-8 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night,

An omega block covering most of the nation will help to maintain a
deep upper low anchored over the Ohio Valley region as we go through
the next couple of days. Cyclonic flow on the backside of the low
will continue to send cooler and drier air into the forecast area as
a result. For this afternoon, will continue to mention the limited
threat for fire weather danger in the HWO/graphicast due to low
relative humidity in the warm, well-mixed airmass.

A more significant cold front is progged to move through the
area tonight and be south of the ArkLaMiss by daybreak Thursday.
Expect temperatures to be a few degrees below climatic normal behind
the front. The fire weather danger threat shouldn`t be quite as great
given cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. /EC/

Friday through Tuesday....

Dry conditions and increasing temperatures will be the story of the
long term. By late Friday, the deep upper level closed low over the
Ohio Valley region will begin to slowly lift northward as upper level
heights begin to increase over the Plains. The resulting upper ridge
will begin to slowly move east. A warming trend will begin on
Saturday as high temperatures increase to near where they should be
on the first of October. Above average high temperatures will make a
return on Sunday and we could see temperatures approach 90 degrees by
Wednesday, nearly 10 degrees above normal. Diurnal heating due to the
lack of significant cloud cover will allow low temperatures to remain
below normal on Saturday and Sunday mornings and near to slightly
above normal early next week. The ArkLaMiss is expected to remain
rain free over the next 7 days. /JPM/

AVIATION...Aside from a few patchy areas of morning BR, VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites through Thursday. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  60  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      89  59  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     86  59  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   87  63  82  54 /   3   0   0   0
Natchez       85  60  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    88  56  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     85  54  76  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/EC/JPM/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.