Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250322 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
922 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 9pm local radars showed a narrow band of showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front that stretched from Eupora to
Yazoo City to Natchez. The storms along this front were becoming
increasingly elevated but small hail will remain possible with the
strongest storms. The cold front and associated storms will shift
southeast of the Natchez Trace by midnight and continue southeast
clearing our CWA well before sunrise. Rain chances the remainder of
the night have been tailored to the latest timing. Gusty northwest
winds will usher in much colder and drier air in the wake of the
front. Morning lows still look on track to bottom out in the low
to mid 40s at most locations. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Saturday: Surface cold front moving through AR at
the moment not producing anything more than cloud cover and a few
light showers. This has been expected as the low level cap has held
strong. Some breakdown of the cap looks apparent in the models this
evening as a narrow band of convection does seem to generate right
along the frontal boundary as it moves across the river into MS.
While do not believe that full instability potential will be
realized, frontal forcing should be sufficient to overcome the cap
for a thin line of storms between sunset and midnight over mainly
western sections of MS. Still, given steep lapse rates available
ambient shear, would not be surprised to see a strong storm or two,
but not enough to outlook in the HWO.

The front will clear the forecast area after midnight, followed by
clearing skies and breezy conditions. Temperatures Saturday will be
about 20 degrees cooler than today, but closer to normal for this
time of year./26/

Saturday night through Thursday night...strong surface
high pressure ridging will continue to build in over the area
Saturday night. A cold night is on tap as the surface high moves
over the area allowing the winds to become light and strong
radiational cooling to prevail. The surface high will quickly shift
to the east of the area on Sunday and the winds will swing around
to the southeast once again. Temperatures will climb back up into
the 60s for most of the area. A series of short waves will begin
to move across the area starting late Sunday night, and this
combined with increasing moisture and instability, will kick of
showers and thunderstorms. There may be sufficient
shear/instability for some strong to possibly severe storms on
Monday and this will have to be monitored over the next couple of
days.

The showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area Monday
nigh into Tuesday, as the upper pattern will change very little and
short waves continue to move across the area. Tuesday will be very
warm once again with highs near 80 and a continued chance for
showers and thunderstorms. The GFS/ECMWF are in decent agreement
on a more substantial trough/cold front moving across the region
on Wednesday with the GFS being the faster of the models. The
ECMWF is a little deeper with the trough and also indicates more
instability and shear. This will also have to be monitored in the
coming days. Surface high pressure and cooler temps will move in
for Thursday and Thursday night./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: A cold front just nw of GLH at 2330Z will move
across the area overnight. VFR conds are expected to prevail
through Saturday but, vcty TSRA wl be psbl this evng HKS-JAN-GTR-
MEI ahead of the cold front. Gusty nw winds wl follow fropa. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  58  32  67 /  49   1   0   1
Meridian      46  60  30  66 /  50   3   0   1
Vicksburg     43  58  31  68 /  59   1   0   2
Hattiesburg   50  65  33  69 /  50   2   0   1
Natchez       45  58  33  69 /  53   1   0   2
Greenville    40  53  31  63 /   2   1   0   2
Greenwood     40  54  30  65 /  31   2   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

15/22/26



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