Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 241447 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
947 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
NO UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS NEEDED THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. GOING TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF
STORMS FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE NEAR
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A 2 INCH PW
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE BRINGING SOME LOWER VIS AND IFR/LIFR
CONDS TO KGWO/KGTR/KGLH/KTVR. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONDS TO IMPROVE
AFTER 15-16Z AT MOST TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN 18-22Z AT MOST TAF SITES DUE TO TSRA
DIRECT IMPACT. WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NW AROUND 5-10
KT. EXPECT MIX OF FOG/LOWER STRATUS AND MVFR CONDS PSBL AFTER 25/08Z
AT KHBG/KMEI...WITH SOME FOG AND LOWER VIS/IFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN
25/08-12Z AT KGWO/KGTR. /DC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN BUBBLING UP OFF AND ON ACROSS THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING AS
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING`S
CONVECTION. FACTOR INTO THE EQUATION DAYTIME HEATING...AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND A WEAK FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION...AND THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. ALTHOUGH THE MOST
INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 30-35 MPH...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL ACTIVITY
TODAY.

THAT SAID...GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS A BIT STINGY WITH POPS FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...FOR THE REASONS STATED ABOVE...INCREASING POPS AREAWIDE
FOR TODAY SIMPLY MADE MORE SENSE THAN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO THE SOUTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...POPS
FOR TODAY NOW RESEMBLE THOSE OF THE ECMWF THAN THOSE OF THE GFS AND
NAM.

AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT...IT`LL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NOW SLOWING FRONT.  SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN MY FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL...
PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  BEHIND THE FRONT...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NOW OVER THE REGION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS AFTERNOONS.  WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED...HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
NEAR THE STALLED FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FALL DOWN AROUND 70. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS BOTH DAYS
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.
EXPECT BOTH DAYS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  68  93  71 /  24  13   9   6
MERIDIAN      91  68  93  70 /  27  13  13   6
VICKSBURG     91  64  93  68 /  20  12   6   6
HATTIESBURG   92  71  94  73 /  34  19  27   7
NATCHEZ       91  70  92  72 /  26  19  14   5
GREENVILLE    91  65  92  70 /  15   4   3   6
GREENWOOD     91  63  92  67 /  16   5   3   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.