Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 302111
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are moving across the area this afternoon and this
will continue into the early evening when most of the activity will
diminish. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight with lows in the
low/mid 70s. Expect very similar conditions on Sunday as today, with
showers/thunderstorms developing by late morning and increasing in
coverage by mid afternoon, as a weak short wave energy moves across
the area. The models suggest slightly better mid-level lapse rates
of around 6.0-6.5 c/km on Sunday, but little flow. Cant rule out a
strong to possibly severe storm on Sunday, but will not put anything
in the HWO at this time and let the mid shift further evaluate.
Expect another quiet night Sunday into Monday with lows in the
low/mid 70s once again.

The global models increase heights slightly across the area on Monday,
but with afternoon heating and PWATS above 2 inches over most of the
area, expect another round of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.
Highs will climb into the low 90s across most of the area./15/

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Under weak but general
northerly flow aloft, ridging will subtly increase across the region
through the course of the long term period. At the surface, high
pressure will remain wedged into the forecast area front the east,
resulting in weak southerly flow and a continued humid airmass over
the CWA.

Each afternoon will remain characterized by highs warming into
the middle 90s, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This convection will quickly dissipate around sunset each evening.
A few clouds will remain present overnight, as lows fall into the
middle 70s.  Afternoon heat index values look to again creep into
the 100-105 range across much of the forecast area, with indices
across the Delta Region perhaps climbing up to around 108 Wednesday
through Friday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving
across the area this afternoon, and any direct impact from a storm
could certainly yield brief IFR flight cats and gusty winds at an
affected airport. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions through the
remainder of the afternoon, with CU bases generally from 3 to 6 kts
and west to southwest winds at 5 to 15 mph. Convection should
dissipate this evening with at least patchy MVFR flight cats, mainly
due to vis restrictions, possible by daybreak Sunday. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  74  92  74 /  35  21  47  25
Meridian      94  73  94  73 /  35  23  49  27
Vicksburg     92  74  92  74 /  37  20  46  21
Hattiesburg   93  73  90  74 /  30  22  59  26
Natchez       93  73  90  74 /  33  20  54  22
Greenville    92  74  92  74 /  38  23  40  20
Greenwood     92  74  91  73 /  37  21  40  23

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/BB


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