Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 311019
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL COME TO AN
END. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE SILVER STATE TO BRING DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE
FALLEN TO FREEZING ACROSS THE LKN CWFA THIS MORNING. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE
LINCOLN/CLARK COUNTY BORDER AT THIS TIME...A PERFECT SETUP TO
YIELD A HIGH DOSE OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SNAKE RANGE
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...THE SCHELL CREEK RANGE FURTHER
WEST. SNOW LEVELS HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR 6000 FEET. KELY...HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING...IS CURRENTLY GETTING SHADOWED OUT FROM THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOIST FLOW AS PREDICTED...BUT HAVE RECEIVED
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY. CURRENTLY IN A PERFECT EAST SLOPE WRAP-AROUND POSITION TO
YIELD HIGH-QUANTITY SNOWFALL FOR THE SNAKE AND SCHELL CREEK
RANGES OF WHITE PINE COUNTY...THE UPPER LOW FEATURE WILL BE
RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AS A NARROW BUT EXTREMELY POSITIVE
TILTED RIDGE PROTRUDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE
REAL KICKER...ENERGY AROUND AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. THE MOIST FLOW WILL ABRUPTLY END FOR THE LKN CWFA SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO THE NOTION THAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DRY
ALL AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE
AXIS OF A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...EFFECTIVELY IN THE
20S. A BRIEF WARMING TREND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MAX
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 50 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING COULD HOLD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THE PERMA-LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS
WILL SPIN OFF ENOUGH ENERGY TO SEND SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WEAKENED RIDGE FEATURE...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WITH A GROWING CONCERN THAT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT.
NO ISSUES ARE FORESEEN WITH THIS DIRTY FLOW HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS
MAY DIP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARMING AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWFA...IN THE 20S AGAIN. HOWEVER FURTHER WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND FREEZING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S IN MANY LOCATIONS...AGAIN WARMER TOWARDS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION..MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
AT KWMC AFT 00Z.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/94/94


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