Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 301046
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
346 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. AS
A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
TIED OR BROKEN. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS DURING THE WEEK WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS
MAINLY TO NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING AS SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR. WATER
VAPOR DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TONOPAH AT THIS
TIME...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE WITH WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN...RECORDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY..ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE DECENT...IN THE MID 30S. BY TUESDAY...PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR. COULD BE
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN A FEW LOCATIONS...IN EASTERN NEVADA.
WEST WENDOVER WILL PROBABLY SEE STRONG WINDS AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS
DURING THE DAY WILL BE DECENT...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S...BUT WILL FALL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED...AND POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE BORDER WITH IDAHO.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A WEST TO EAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING HOLD AND COMING
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
ACTUALLY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTH...AND NEAR NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AN H3 100 KT JET HAS ALREADY
ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA /WHERE MUCH
OF THE ENERGY IS/ AND IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST KEEPING THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY WEAK. AS THE COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SOME CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
TO THE RUBY`S EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS INDICATING MORE AMPLITUDE TO THIS RIDGE KEEPING
A COLD NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF
SUPPORTS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE. WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLITUDE GFS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES HIGHER SATURDAY /MAINLY INTO THE 60S/ COMPARED TO FRIDAY`S
HIGHS. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION...TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF NEXT WEEKENDS TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL MOVING THE TROUGH ONSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SYSTEM
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. IF THE GFS IS ACCURATE SOME
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WHILE AN ECMWF SOLUTION
WILL FAVOR A DRY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAX SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RECORDS BEING BROKEN.

            RECORD   FORECAST
AIRPORT      TODAY     TODAY

ELKO        76/1966     75
ELY         72/1966     74
EUREKA      73/1968     77
TONOPAH     77/1966     77
WINNEMUCCA  79/1966     74

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

86/89/89


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