Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 212135
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
235 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND NW ELKO COUNTIES THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXTENDING
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT BACKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN ALONG THE
WEST COAST. CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALL
INCREASE IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES NEVADA...WITH
THICKEST CLOUDS AND STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS NW NEVADA. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW
REBUILDING BY FRIDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS NW NEVADA
BACK INTO CA AND OREGON. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN. A SLOW PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON THE FOOTHILLS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE A
DRY PERIOD. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BE UNDER A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS NEVADA BENEFITS FROM
A PULSE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EXISTING RIDGE.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE INCOMING TROUGH
AXIS WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC COASTAL AREA EASTWARD THROUGH
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF IS INDICATING A FASTER FLOW THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE CURRENT GFS. THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN EXITING RIDGE AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE STRENGTHENING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE ARE SOME DEPTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST WITH THE TROUGHS
SOUTHERN EXTENT AND THUS COLD AIR PENETRATES DEEPER INTO THE CWFA.
SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP TO AROUND 5500 FEET NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. A DEFINITE CHILL WILL BE IN THE AIR AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HELD TO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY.

SUNDAY MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD.
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL INHIBIT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MONDAY
MORNING HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO
THE MID 20S AS SOME CLEARING OCCURS. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY INTO THE 60S...NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
KWMC...KEKO...KELY...AND KTPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

96/92/92





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