Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KLKN 041008
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
308 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THIS WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...AND A BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PWS ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY UP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE HRRR PLACES THE BULK OF THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WHITE PINE...AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE NAM. AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD...AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET
NUDGED UPWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLICE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CA ...ERODING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN CWA...AND
USHERING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A BRIEF
DRY SPELL. HOWEVER A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND TO INTRODUCE SOME
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4
CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER GREAT BASIN
WEATHER. THE GFS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER...ADVANCING LEADING
EDGE MOISTURE QUICKER...HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING OUT
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH NEVADA...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH...PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP BEFORE ANY MOISTURE HITS THE GROUND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE LOW
SKIPS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. STABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBUILD...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...REMNANTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AND THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIALOG HAS BEGUN
ABOUT THE EVOLVING SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...WHEN THERE APPEARS TO BE
A GLIMMER OF A RED FLAG EVENT. DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH THIS
PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NCEP RMOP IS NOT IN CONFIDENT TERRITORY THE NEXT
96 HRS...SO THE MODELING ISSUES ARE VERY PRESENT.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92/97



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.