Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KLKN 242100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A BREAK OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF MEMORIAL DAY...BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AND THE RAIN STILL CONTINUES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. 563 DM UPPER LOW SITTING AND SPINNING
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, BLOCKED BY
STRONG EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. AS SUCH, THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
CONVEYOR BELT HAS REACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. DID AN UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS
THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM. ONCE AGAIN TODAY, SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN
STRONG, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING QUITE COMMON. SOILS ARE GROWING
MORE SATURATED WITH WATER SEEPING INTO SOME BASEMENTS. STORM THAT
PASSED OVER ELKO THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED A CONFIRMED FUNNEL CLOUD.
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 5 PM, WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY.

TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO NEVADA, ENDING THE RAIN
AND RESULTING IN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
INCREDIBLY MOIST, SO FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO MENTION AREAS OF
RADIATION FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY MORNING.

MEMORIAL DAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK OF DRY
WEATHER FOR ALL ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS, FROM 5-11 AM, AND
KEPT THAT PERIOD DRY FOR MOST ZONES. PATTERN CHANGE STILL EXPECTED
ON MONDAY, AS COLORADO LOW FINALLY DEPARTS AWAY FROM NEVADA, AND A
NEW TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NW. FLOW OVER NEVADA BECOMES MORE
ZONAL, AS THE NEW TROUGH APPROACHES NW NEVADA BY 5 PM. LIFT FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF I-80, MONDAY AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM
FORECASTS WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY, WITH
LIFTED INDEX OF -2C TO -4C, AND CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DIFFERENCE IS, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ON MEMORIAL DAY, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80, AND IT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...UPPER LOW MEANDERS IN THE PACIFIC NW, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH
NEVADA. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS, AND GIVEN HOW
EASY IS HAS BEEN TO RAIN LATELY, INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND NEAR TONOPAH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINATION WILL ENCOURAGE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IN EASTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE
IDENTICAL, SO EXPECT NO TEMPERATURE CHANGE TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY`S READINGS.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. TROF OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NV. RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE
CWA THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. MVFR CIGS/VIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/87/87


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.