Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260948
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO NEVADA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS
WAY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NV TODAY REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST ELKO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINT AT ELY JUMPED FROM 14F LAST
EVENING TO 40F IN A COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATING THE MONSOON
MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY. EXPECTING MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN PORTION OF
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ELKO COUNTY FROM THE
RUBY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY REACHING THE IDAHO BORDER. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM TONOPAH TO EUREKA TO CARLIN
TO WILD HORSE. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL NV AND
ISOLATED OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. MONSOON WILL BE IN
FULL SWING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 4-CORNERS REGION ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH PW`S INCREASING SOUTH TO NORTH
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY MODELS HINT AT SOME WESTERLY FLOW
INTRUDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTH AND
EAST AND THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SO PW`S
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR .75" AND MAYBE LESS IN SOME AREAS ALONG
WITH LESS INSTABILITY SO WILL LIKELY SEE LESS CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN SURGES
NORTH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO NEAR THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A TROUGH
NEAR THE WEST COAST SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KELY
WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR THE AIRFIELD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NV
TODAY. STORMS WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
ZONES 469 AND 470. STORMS ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL
BE DRY BUT QUICKLY BECOME WET. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTH ON SUNDAY REACHING THE IDAHO BORDER WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE
OVER CENTRAL NV AND ISOLATED COVERAGE IN NORTHEAST NV. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ZONE 467, AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF 468,
454, AND 457.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/90/90/91





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