Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290913

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
213 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected for most areas
today, tapering off to the east on Friday. Then a stronger,
cooler storm will move through the Great Basin late in the weekend
or early next week to bring another round of unsettled weather.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Looking at satellite imagery, clouds are increasing from the
south and radar is picking up on a few showers moving into White
Pine County. A Pacific trough is approaching the Great Basin
region, helping to draw up sub-tropical moisture and thunderstorms
are expected to develop today and tomorrow. A 554-556DM elongated
low center will move south along the Canadian/Washington coast.
The pressure gradient will be strengthening a bit over northern
California and extreme western Nevada. Models are in pretty good

Today through this evening. The positive-tilt orientation of the
Pacific upper low will begin swinging towards the north-south
position. The moisture surge will likely peak as this transition
will help connect with subtropical air pooled over the Baja region
and moisture will spread further northward into Nevada. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop across most of northern
and east central Nevada. Humboldt County has the least chance for
any thunderstorm activity but winds will get a little breezy
across the Black Rock Desert. Modeled precipitable water values
are generally between 0.6 and 0.75 inches today, so the general
likelihood of experiencing flooding issues will be minimal. That
being said, the Strawberry burn area within the Great Basin Park
boundary will need to be monitored closely for storms that develop
and move across that particular site due to the heightened
potential for flash flooding over the denuded terrain.

Midnight tonight through Friday. The moist flow will be kicked
east by the incoming low pressure trough. Instability will be
mainly confined to Elko County and PWs will be reduced. Winds will
be gusty across Humboldt County as the pressure gradient tightens.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday.

Shower activity from lingering moisture will exist through the
weekend across the eastern parts of Elko county east of the Rubies
and in White Pine County. There may be enough instability for
very isolated thunderstorms to form during the afternoon. The
Pacific trough approaching the great Basin region will provide cooler
temperatures with the passage of an associated cold front on
Sunday. Temperatures will generally be 15 to 20 degrees cooler
than in the past few days. Highs in the upper 40`s to the 50s
with lows in the upper 20s and 30s will be common across much the
CWA through next week. In addition, Pacific moisture accompanying
the system will bring showers and snow to the higher elevations to
the northern half of the state. Snow levels will generally be
above the valley floors but there is a chance for some lower
levels in the 6000`s feet that could bring snow to higher valleys.
The trough will tend to move quickly through the the Great Basin
region so significant rain or snow accumulations are not expected
at this time. With the passage of the trough there will be gusty
afternoon winds with Sunday and Monday having the strongest gusts.


.AVIATION...There will be cloud ceiling but conditions will remain
VFR for all terminals for the next 24 hours. Showers are possible
at KEKO, KELY, and KTPH with the passage of an upper level system.
KELY has the chance for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Gusty afternoon winds from the southwest are possible
at KWMC and KTPH.


.FIRE WEATHER...Out ahead of a Pacific low pressure feature,
clouds will continue to increase as moisture gets pulled up from
the south. The moisture will likely peak today before being
nudged east by an incoming low pressure trough. There will be a
risk for showers and thunderstorms across most zones today and
mainly northeast Nevada tomorrow. Humboldt County, as well as Fire
Zones 454 and 457, will see the strongest winds. As the Pacific
trough moves inland and crosses the Great Basin late in the
weekend or early next week, snow levels will be dipping to around
6000 feet.


Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for Central and Western Humboldt County.



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