Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 192227
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
227 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Pacific moisture will stream across northern Nevada
beginning Monday bringing valley rain and mountain snow. Valley
rain will turn to snow Tuesday night and continue into Thursday.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Upper trough off the west
coast will send abundant Pacific moisture across northern NV
Monday through Wednesday. The heaviest precipitation will be on
Monday across northwest NV due to an atmospheric river. This mild
southwest flow of moisture will keep snow levels confined to the
mountains. Colder air will start to work its way into northern NV
Tuesday night causing snow levels to drop to valley floors.
However by the time precipitation turns to snow in the valleys
moisture will be limited so only expecting an inch or less at most
locations. South winds will begin to increase on Monday becoming
breezy to windy in the afternoon, continuing through Tuesday. The
strongest winds will occur late Monday night and Tuesday with
winds in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts to 45 mph. Some higher
summits and passes will see gusts over 45 mph Tuesday, but at this
time doesn`t look widespread enough to warrant a wind advisory.
.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Monday. Beginning of the
long term has the models agreeing well that a sharp short wave
will cross the intermountain west with cold air invading
Wednesday. Precip starts as rain/snow mix but turn to all snow
late Tuesday into Wednesday. Pops lower during the long term, but
precip remains snow. From Thursday discrepancies appear and model
disagreements give low confidence for precip. Temps are another
matter as both models contain a northerly fetch (albeit a short
one) which advects cold air and maintains chilly temps. Highs
generally remain in the 30s with lows in the teens. Some slight
warming toward the very end of the term with drier air and more
Breezy conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday but mainly at
higher elevations. Winds subside for the rest of the period.
.AVIATION...Colder air and ample moisture will bring rain/snow to
the TAF fields through 00Z Tuesday. Best chances at KWMC and KEKO.
Ceilings and visibility will drop to MVFR at times at
KWMC...KEKO...and KELY with KTPH hitting IFR or LIFR in fog Monday
morning. Conditions will improve at KTPH but will have a hard time
clearing with previous rain soaked soils and low clouds keeping
the sun out. Mountain obscurations at all sites will be a problem.
Freezing temps in the morning will make asphalt slick and causing
icing on some surfaces.
.HYDROLOGY...Lower Humboldt River from Battle Mountain through
Winnemucca to the Humboldt-Pershing Count line still in flood. The
flood wave will move downstream over night and Battle Mountain and
Lander County should remain in minor flood status through about
Humboldt County will remain in flood status along the Humboldt
River for a week or more. Warm temps in the region is causing some
tributaries to the Humboldt, such as Martin Creek and Rock Creek,
to run high from more snowmelt. This new system coming in will be
largely rain in the lower elevations, wet snow up high. The rain
will enter the streams and the Humboldt channel very quickly, but
the snow will hold for a time, with temps later in the week only
in the 30s for highs and teens for lows.
Bottom line...don`t turn your back on any stream. While the
absolute worst appears to be over for most places (except for
Humboldt County which is just starting to see rises), more water
is coming. Nothing like before but it will almost certainly
prolong the floods.