Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 222139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE WINDY AS WELL ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEVADA ON TUESDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO UTAH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING OVER THE CWA. STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT
OF SMOKE THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN THE ONGOING FIRES IN CALIFORNIA.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT AREAS OF SMOKE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND NOW
EXPANDED IT OVER WESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE GFS IS QUICKER TO PUSH THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT OF THIS...GFS BRINGS THE BULK OF THE
SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING OVER EASTERN
AREAS INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF HOWEVER DOES NOT BRING MOISTURE THROUGH
NEVADA UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND QPF
AMOUNTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES MAY DRIFT UP INTO
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AT KWMC. OTHERWISE DRY AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER FRIDAY WITH FURTHER COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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