Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 032100
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEVADA ON THE FOURTH OF OF
JULY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY...WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -3. MOISTURE QUALITY HOLDING NICELY
TODAY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT STILL AT 50 HERE AT THE OFFICE AT
NOON, WITH PW HOVERING AROUND ONE INCH (12Z LKN SOUNDING MEASURED
0.99 INCH). LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A CERTAINTY INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT LACK OF SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED ONCE AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER TO ISOLATED
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY WARM AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE 60S,
ABOUT 12-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

4TH OF JULY...CONFIDENCE INCREASING REGARDING A SIGNIFICANT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEVADA. SHORTWAVE IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE NW AND ARRIVE IN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING, HELPING TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS, AND THE DISTURBANCE WILL FIND
A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO INTERACT WITH WHEN IT ARRIVES. GFS
FORECASTS PW OF 1-1.1 INCH, WITH ALL MODELS HOLDING SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN BE WEAK, WITH 700
MB FLOW ABOUT 5 KTS, ADDING TO HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POTENTIAL. NAM
FORECASTS IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WIDESPREAD. GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS, AND GIVEN THE HOLIDAY/OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT HUMBOLDT, NW NYE, AND SE ELKO
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, STORMS SATURDAY WILL
PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE MICROBURSTS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 50-60
MPH, AND PROLIFIC CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT WILL NOT BE
RAINING EVERYWHERE ALL THE TIME, BUT SOME OUTDOOR HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES/FIREWORKS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS. REMAIN
ALERT OF THE WEATHER AROUND YOU IF HEADING OUTSIDE FOR THE
HOLIDAY. WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS! LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY SEVERAL DEGREES GIVEN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE.

KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 5 AM SUNDAY, AGAIN GIVEN THE
HOLIDAY TIMING, AND ALLOWING FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT GFS
SUGGESTS WILL PERSIST.

SUNDAY...MOISTURE QUALITY DEGRADES SOME, DOWN TO 0.75-0.95 INCH,
BUT STILL PLENTY, COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY /CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/,
TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS
ELKO/WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STEERING FLOW IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AND
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY LESS, SO NOT AS CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, WITH HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES LOWERING. DROPPED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH MANY
VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE REFRESHING LOW TO MID 80S, ACTUALLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL!  TURNER


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD FOR ENTIRE PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
AND DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A 576DM 500MB LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
AND A NEGATIVELY TILTED 500MB RIDGE OVER NV.  ALHTOUGH THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...IT QUICKLY BREAKS DOWNS AS
THE 500MB LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THE
500MB LOW GRADUALLY FILLS AS ENTERS NV LATE THURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
NE THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY.  AS A RESULT...THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
FROM SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURDAY.  CONVECTION WISE...EACH DAY SEES A DECREASE
IN CONVECTION COVERAGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN NV
WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DIVERAGES ALOFT WILL RESIDE UNTIL
THURSDAY.  MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE OTHER
BIG STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS 500MB
HEIGHTS FALL TO 576-579DM BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS IS APPROACHING
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.  THERFORE HIGH TEMPS FALL FROM
THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY TO THE 70S AND 80S BY
FRIDAY...WHICH MEANS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR A CHANCE.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS COULD GET QUITE CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
 A FEW OF COLDER SPOTS COULD DIP INTO THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY;
THEREFORE VCTS OR VCSH IS ADDED TO ALL TAFS.  GREATEST CHANCES ARE
AT WMC...EKO...AND ELY TO SEE ONE HIT THE TERMINAL.  CAPPING ALOFT
LIMITS CHANCES AT TPH; HOWEVER OUTFLOWS COULD CHANGE THAT.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON WHEN ACITIVTY MAY END THIS EVENING...AS
WELL AS WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF OUTFLOWS.
EXPECT WIDE SPREAD TS COVERAGE TOMORROW WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING WITH LAL
OF 4. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

A DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN NEVADA FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY,
INTERACT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
LAL OF 5 FOR MANY FWZ. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH, WITH PW
NEAR OR ABOVE ONE INCH. AS SUCH, STORMS WILL BE WET, EFFICIENT
RAINERS. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT ALSO INCREASES CONFIDENCE OF WET
STORMS WITH HIGH CWR, AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRODUCE NOT
ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

99/85/85/99


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