Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 162152
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
152 PM PST Mon Jan 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect freezing fog to hang around through this
afternoon and possibly Tuesday without much temperature change
from day to night. A series of low pressure systems will begin to
affect the Silver State by late Tuesday and subsequently weather
will be unsettled through next weekend. Rain and snow will change
to all snow by Thursday and some places could get several inches
through the weekend. Stay tuned.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Thin deformation zone over
Nevada drifting southeast away from the forecast area. This upper
zone has kept winds light and contributed to the lack of low level
forcing which would scour out the cold air trapped in the valleys.
Hence, the freezing fog keeps on keeping on. This will continue
into Tuesday, when the next system, now located over the northern
Pacific, will move into the Great Basin. The main upper low
driving this is located over northwest Alaska but is tossing
potent short waves around the bottom into the northeast Pacific,
picking up moisture, and dragging cold air along.
Beginning later Tuesday, the winds should pick up a little and
upper clouds begin to spread into the region. By Wednesday rain
and snow mixed begin to move into Humboldt County and quickly
spread east and south. Have raised pops in line with latest models
and surrounding offices` changes. By Thursday, thicknesses drop
and the first round of cold air invades, with precip turning to
snow. Valley accumulations of snow on Thursday may reach a few
inches in the north to an inch or so in central and east. Northern
mountains several inches with central and eastern mountains four
or so. This assumes cold air in place in the valleys and upslope
flow into the ranges. If winds scour out valley cold air before
this, then the changeover to all snow will be slower and
accumulations lower, but still decent QPF amounts.
Will issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the week.
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
The weather continues to look active during the long term period
with models showing a series of troughs advancing across Nevada.
The troughs will bring ample moisture across the silver state
causing showers and cloud decks. Snow levels will reach the valley
floors across all of northern and central Nevada. This should
make the predominate mode of precipitation snow for all elevation
levels. snow would be expected to accumulate as the temperatures
should remain below freezing. Gusty winds should also be present
with the passage of each trough. Highs should be in the upper
20`s and just into the 30`s while the lows should be in the teens.
.AVIATION...Moisture continues to be trapped in the valleys
producing low cloud decks of MVFR or IFR at all terminals
excluding KTPH. These decks should range range from 1-2k ft for
KEKO and KWMC and at 500-1000ft for KELY. The cloud decks should
break out by tomorrow afternoon. Gusty winds will be present at
KTPH for today.