Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 310954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
254 AM PDT TUE MAY 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building in over Nevada will result in
mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures through the weekend.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. High pressure currently
centered along the California coast will lead to warm and dry
conditions across Nevada today. May see periods of cirrus clouds
moving in from the northwest at times today and tonight as high
level moisture rotates around the ridge...otherwise clear skies.
Valley locations should warm a couple degrees from yesterday with
most valley locations in the 80s...though some lower elevation
areas such as Winnemucca should reach into the low 90s.
On Wednesday the high pressure from California will drift
eastward across Nevada. Temperatures will continue to trend higher
with continued dry conditions. Models are showing a little
instability Wednesday afternoon across Northeastern Nevada due to
a weak and dry cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest.
This results in lifted indices lowering to around zero over
Humboldt County. Not expecting more that some afternoon cu build-
ups however as the air mass is relatively dry.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday.
Pattern and Confidence: Ridge axis over California and the Desert
Southwest is suppressed from progressive waves over the Pacific
Northwest. Warm ridge amplifies on Friday and continues through
the weekend. Ensembles do not show much spread through this
weekend and confidence is high. Some question marks on Monday as
the GFS shows a closed low circulation busting over srn Nevada.
The latest ECMWF is a day later with the upper low moving into the
Silver State; this may be preferred given it is June and warm
ridges tend to be uncooperative.
Sensible Weather and Potential Impacts: Summer arrives this week!
People and animals may not be accustomed to the upcoming warmth
after extended periods of showers during the past two months.
High elevation snow melt will continue and mountain creeks (such
as Lamoille Creek) will have elevated strong flows, possibly
reaching flood stage Thursday night.
Temperatures: High temperatures may reach 14 to 18 degrees above
normal by next Sunday. Readings in the 90s will be common for
valleys at or below 5k feet. Higher valleys will be in the mid
80s. Nights will be relatively mild, mostly in the 40s to lower
Winds: Lack of gradient flow will result in light variable winds,
with mountain-valley diurnal circulations prevailing.
Precipitation and Obscurations: None expected, although isolated high
based thunderstorms may occur next Monday if the GFS scenario
pans out. A slower solution is preferred, so dry weather for the
next 7 days is a distinct possibility.
.AVIATION...VFR will prevail through the forecast period.
.HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures have escalated melting of the high-
elevation snow-pack, leading to a substantial rise in some rivers
and creeks. Lamoille Creek is showing a strong diurnal profile,
peaking in the evening and running less strong during the
overnight and daytime hours. The creek, which has been peaking
around 9 pm each evening, may rise briefly to flood stage Thursday
evening then recede for the remainder of the night.