Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 062351
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...WARM AND DRY WITH ISOLATED GUSTY SANTA ANA
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAD A FEW SPOTS TODAY REACHING CRITERIA
BUT FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WERE BREEZY BUT BELOW CRITERIA. PROBABLY
A SIMILAR WIND SITUATION SATURDAY, THEN LESS WIND SUNDAY AS
GRADIENTS TREND ONSHORE.

THE MAIN STORY IS THE TEMPS WHICH WERE NEAR RECORD LEVELS TODAY IN
MANY AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY, BUT MOST RECORDS ARE ALSO
WARMER SO IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO REACH THEM. OVERALL, TEMPS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE. WITH THE TREND TO ONSHORE FLOW
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME COOLING, PERHAPS 5-10 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST BUT A BIT LESS INLAND. HIGHS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDS TUE WHILE GRADIENTS
TURN OFFSHORE AGAIN FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING. THEN THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN WED ALLOWING A VERY WEAK TROF TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR US WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
HAVE TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. IF THE
WEAKER TRENDS CONTINUE WE`LL LIKELY HAVE TO REDUCE POPS UP NORTH AS
WELL. THEN THE RIDGE REBUILDS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE BACK UP INTO THE 80S ONCE
AGAIN WITH DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0000Z...

THERE WAS NO MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 2345Z.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY E-NE WINDS TO THE LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. 30% CHANCE OF LLWS AT KVNY FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM 09Z-18Z.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE LLWS BETWEEN 06Z-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...06/200 PM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO PACIFIC PALISADES AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL EXIST SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
TO POINT SAL OUT 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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