Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 110354
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
754 PM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND A COOLING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WED-SAT)

IT WAS ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY...WITH SEVEN NEW RECORD HIGHS
(SEE RERLOX). ALL RECORD HIGHS OCCURRED IN VENTURA AND LA
COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING OCCURRED NEAR THE
COAST...BUT MANY INLAND AREAS WERE JUST AS WARM OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST COOLING 0CCURRED ON THE CENTRAL
COAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES COOLED 10-15 DEGREES FROM
YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF COOLING ARE LIKELY TOMORROW...AS THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT ONSHORE TREND IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AND MANY INLAND AREAS
PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE AT ALL. THE VALLEYS AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN VENTURA AND LA COUNTIES...AND THERE COULD ONCE AGAIN
BE SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS
TO COOL THE CENTRAL COAST DOWN 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED UPON THE COOLING THAT OCCURRED TODAY. FORECAST
HIGHS ON THE CENTRAL COAST TOMORROW ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

SOME CLOUDINESS AND A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOULD FEEL NOTABLY COOLER.  WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH OVERNIGHT SO THE
MORNINGS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE PASSING TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE PAST WEEK OR IT MAY BE A
FAIR BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION.  EITHER WAY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL HAVE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES.

THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT BUILD IN AS STRONGLY AS IT HAD BEEN PRIOR
TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  THIS WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR THE NEXT TROUGH
TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH AND IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST AND DEEP THE NEXT
SYSTEM GOES... OR HOW WELL IT CONNECTS WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
STREAM... BUT THERE IS A LEGITIMATE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE SOUTHLAND IN THE WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK.  IT
MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLIGHT PRECIPITATION BUT IT IS A GLIMMER
OF HOPE FOR NOW.  AND POSSIBLY A GLIMMER OF A WEAKENING RIDGE
OVERALL THAT COULD INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.  AS PHIL
CONNERS (GROUNDHOG DAY) SAYS... ANY CHANGE IS GOOD.


&&

.AVIATION...10/2325Z

AT 2300Z AT LAX...THE MARINE LAYER WAS ABOUT 400 FEET DEEP. THE TOP
OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 1200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY AT KSMX AND KSBP FROM 06-15Z.

KLAX AND KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24+
HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...10/800 PM...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...SCA WINDS MAY
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
POSSIBLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE INNER WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES PRODUCED BY SCA
WINDS...A LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ENTER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THIS LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD TO 10-13 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP/KJ
AVIATION...SUKUP
MARINE...SUKUP
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


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