Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 261013
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
THE COAST AND INTO SOME VALLEYS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT AREAS FARTHER
INLAND WILL HAVE FAIR SKIES. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
INTO MIDWEEK...THEN WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIR SKIES AT THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)... THE MARINE LAYER IS 2800 FEET DEEP AND IS
CAPPED BY A DECENT INVERSION WHICH WAS THE RESULT OF WARMING ALOFT
ON MONDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH MARINE LAYER STRATUS
ACROSS THE COASTS AND INTO MANY OF THE VLYS. THE STRONGER THAN
NORMAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR SLOWER THAN USUAL CLEARING AND IN
FACT A FEW BEACHES MAY STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY TODAY. THE MARINE LAYER
IS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THE VLYS MAY ONLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SOME
STRATA CU COOK UP WITH THE SUNSHINE. THE DEEPER THAN NORMAL MARINE
LAYER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS BELOW NORMAL
WHILE RISING HGTS WILL ALLOW FOR INLAND AREAS TO REACH THEIR NORMAL
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN PATTERN TONIGHT AND WED WITH BROAD TROFFING
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SFC.
WEDNESDAYS WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WITH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CSTS AND VLY GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR. A SMALL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHRINK AND STRENGTHEN THE
INVERSION. SO WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE COASTS IT
WILL INTRUDE LESS INTO THE VLYS. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FAIRLY
QUICKLY INLAND BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO CLEAR AT MORE THAN A FEW BEACHES
DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION AND ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL JUMP TO
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE VALLEY AND INLAND AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY
WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE COASTS AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL OVERWHELM
ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE WARMING.

.LONG TERM (SAT-MON)... THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THIS WILL TRIGGER A SLOW INCREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER AND A
VERY SMALL COOLING TREND EITHER DUE TO MORE MARINE INFLUENCE
(CSTS/VLYS) OR LOWER HGTS (INLAND)

A TROF WILL ENTER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND WILL LIFT THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS DEEP INTO VLYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NOTICABLY COOLER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/1030Z

AT 1010Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 2500 FT DEEP.
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 15
DEGREES CELSIUS.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS AS WEAK MARINE LAYER WILL MAKE
THE LOW CLOUDS BEHAVE ERRATICALLY. 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES...EXCEPT IT COULD GO TO HIGH IFR
AT KPRB...KOXR THROUGH 16Z THEN INCREASE TO MVFR. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT ANY COASTAL TAF WILL HAVE AN MVFR CIG AND NO
CLEARING ALL DAY TUESDAY.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 015
AND 025 THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CLEARING AT ALL
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. CIGS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 015
AND 025 THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHC OF CLEARING DELAYED
TO 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...

26/145 AM.

OUTER WATERS...LOCAL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
SOUTH OF POINT ARGUELLO THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH
OF POINT ARGUELLO. 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
DUE TO NW WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND.

INNER WATERS...LOCAL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF PZZ650 FOR THE INNER SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS SAME AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 40 PERCENT
CHANCE.  ZONE 645 BETWEEN POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND POINT SAL WILL
HAVE A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVE. OTHERWISE...NO ISSUES.




&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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