Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 281208 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
408 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TODAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE BREEZES. THEN A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OFFSHORE
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
A LITTLE RIDGE IS MOVING UP AND OVER SRN CA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT
IS CARRYING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER IDAHO
HAS BROUGHT WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME
CANYON BREEZES BUT ONLY THE 15 TO 25 MPH VARIETY. THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF WHAT THEY COULD HAVE BEEN BUT STILL
IT WILL BE WARMER EVERYWHERE THAN YDY AND 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. CENTRAL COAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE TRICKY...THE NAM SHOWS QUITE
A BIT OF EAST FLOW WHICH SEEMS OVERDONE. BUT IF IT DOES COME TRUE
TODAYS FORECASTED MAX TEMPS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WILL BE A LITTLE
LOW. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ON THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ERN SAN GABRIELS THIS MORNING...BUT ACTUALLY
THIS IS LOOKING MORE AN MORE UNLIKELY. SOME LOW CLOUDS DID DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST BUT THESE ARE DIMINISHING IN THE FACE OF
THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THU AND FRI. A LONG WAVE TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT RIDING UP FROM THE SW ON THE COATTAILS OF
TODAYS RIDGE. BY FRIDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM
IN THE BASE OF THE TROF. THE EC HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING
LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN L.A. COUNTY FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS. THE EC
IS DRY BUT NOW THE NAM IS PICKING UP ON THIS RAIN CHC. THE SLGT CHC
OF RAIN WILL EXTEND TO THE L.A. COAST AND VLYS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOWS MOVES OVERHEAD. STILL IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHC
OF RAIN WILL BE TO THE EAST AND THE SOUTH OF L.A. COUNTY. IF ANY
RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL BE LIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A MAYBE A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY BREAKS. MAX TEMPS WILL
FALL A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND THE
LOWERING HGTS. THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
THAT WILL TEMPER THE COOLING TREND.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
RIDGING AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
THERE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF NORTHEAST
WINDS...JUST SOME MORNING CANYON BREEZES EACH DAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BOTH SAT AND SUN AND SUNDAY SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING. THE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME MORE COOLING.

FOR THOSE PEOPLE WHO LIKE THE FANTASY LAND FORECASTS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A RAIN SYSTEM SETTING UP ON DAY 10. HOWEVER...DAY TEN
FORECASTS SHOULD NEVER BE TRUSTED AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL
TO SEE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST FOR THE SAME TIME BY TONIGHTS
MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...

28/1200Z.

AT 1200Z...THERE WAS NO INVERSION AT KLAX.

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAFS FOR COASTAL TAFS AND KPRB. OTHERWISE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...CIGS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO VLIFR. AT COASTAL
TAFS WITH KSBP 40 PERCENT CHANCE TO GO LIFR TO IFR FROM 13Z TO 16Z.
MOST TAF SITES WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 18Z. BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR LESS
IN THE WAY OF STRATUS TONIGHT WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIFR/VLIFR
CONDS AT KSMX AND KPRB. KSBP HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REMAIN VFR OR ONLY
VLIFR VISBYS FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 10Z-13Z.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH COASTAL TAFS AND
KWJF AND KPMD THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDS FOR VALLEY TAFS. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE
AT DESERT TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VLIFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 20 PERCENT FOR MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 13Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/300 AM.

NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE ISSUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY WESTERN PORTION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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