Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 311121
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

UPDATE...
Updated to increase morning pops.

DISCUSSION...

Radar trends show coverage expanding north and east early this
morning...with a much larger area to get rainfall amounts in
excess of a quarter of an inch. Have increased pops to likely
across Northwest Mississippi...Southwest Tennessee and Northeast
Arkansas through 18z to reflect this change.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Currently skies were cloudy across the Midsouth with a few light
showers and embedded thunderstorms to the southwest of the Memphis
Metro. Temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s...with
either calm or light and variable winds.

For today and tonight...weak upper disturbance in the mid/lower
Mississippi Valley will provide the focus for scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the west and more isolated activity in
the east. In addition a weak warm front seen across Southern
Arkansas and Central Mississippi will lift back to the north.
There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather along and west of
Interstate 55...where isolated damaging wind gusts are possible.
Overall shear is weak...and afternoon/evening cape values only
modest...so better storm organization is not expected. High
temperatures today will be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday.
The threat for nocturnal convection will remain over the western
counties with remnant cloud cover region wide.

Wednesday through Friday...rain chances will increase this period
as models show the northern branch trough in the upper plains
becoming better phased with the current upper low in the southwest
states as it moves to Texas. After which the Southern Plains low
will slowly meander...keeping a good fetch of moisture pumped into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. These impulses will drive a cold
front south out of the Midwest producing slightly better shear for
storms...so better organization/severe threat is possible late
tomorrow and on Thursday. The front will stall over the area by
Friday. Scattered Convection along with significant cloud cover
will slide high temperatures down into the 80s for most...roughly
a few degrees below normal.

Saturday through Tuesday...Long range model solutions keep the
above mentioned upper low over Texas in the start of the period...but
weakens it over time as a stronger shortwave drops into the Great
Lakes. On the surface convection with the stalled front will start
off in the Midsouth...but eventually will push south to the I-20
corridor...as the wave increases the northwest flow aloft. This
dry air push should provide for pleasant weather by early next week.

JAB


&&

.AVIATION...12z TAFS.

Looks like a wet TAF cycle...although confidence is not very high
that precipitation will last through the entire night. As
temperatures warm this morning...thunderstorms should increase in
both coverage and intensity. Temporary MVFR or IFR conditions are
likely in association with the heavier downpours....and winds will
be locally gusty and variable in association with any
thunderstorms. overall...expect south to southwesterly wind less
than 10KT. Some patchy fog/BR is possible tonight at MKL.

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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