Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1151 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Updated to add 06Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 928 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/


Scattered showers, and a few thunderstorms, will move east into
west TN and north MS this evening downstream of the well defined
shortwave trough near the Arklatex. Forcing aloft is aided by the
presence of the strong jet streak analyzed at the base of the
trough. Precipitation is expected to increase in coverage
overnight as this wave approaches, although waning instability
will likely limit the amount of thunder across the Mid-South.
PoPs were increased overnight in many areas, especially those
south of I-40 during the overnight hours. Otherwise, changes to
the forecast were minimal.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area tonight, as
a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. By tomorrow
morning the front should be exiting the eastern portions of the

Aloft, a closed low over the Midwest will drop down into the
midsouth region by Wednesday night, and will keep chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through that time frame.

Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals until Friday, when
warmer and more humid air begins to move back into the area. Another
front will be dropping down into the region late Friday, and with a
zonal flow pattern aloft, the front will stall out and move very
little. While moisture levels will not be prolific, the slow moving
nature of this system will create the potential for heavy rainfall
through the weekend. There are still a lot of uncertainties with
how this system will evolve and exactly where it will stall, but
in any event it will have to be closely watched.


06Z TAFs

An upper level low will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday. Shower chances will continue overnight and
especially during the day on Wednesday. VFR conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR conditions overnight into Wednesday morning
and then improve to VFR conditions towards Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Light NW winds will increase to around 8-11
kts on Wednesday with a few gusts to around 18 kts then decrease
to 6 kts or less Wednesday evening.




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