Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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522
FXUS64 KMEG 110529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING SNOW WORDING AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE. UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SNOW WORDING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS
A WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR 8 KTS AT ALL SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF AGAIN
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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