Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 311734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS THE ONLY RAIN OCCURRING
AT JBR CURRENTLY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
THE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO
MVRF...POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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