Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 280200
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
900 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016
Another pleasant evening is occurring across the Mid-South. Clear
skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop into the
mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s. Current forecast looks good, no updates are expected.
.DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/
Early afternoon temperatures across the Midsouth range from the
middle 70s to the lower 80s...warmest in Northeast Mississippi and
West Tennessee along the Tennessee River and coolest in Northeast
Arkansas. Most of the region is approaching daily highs...which
will likely be within a degree or two of the 80 degree mark. Dew
points are in the low to middle 40s. As a result...afternoon
relative humidity has dropped into the middle to upper 20%.
Weak cold air advection will continue overnight...however
low level thicknesses are expected to rise slightly. Temperatures
tonight should be pretty close to what we saw this morning. The
exception will be in North Mississippi where the cooler air took
longer to arrive. Expect morning lows around 7-10 degrees cooler
in portions of North Mississippi. Most areas should drop into the
low to middle 50s.
A deep cutoff low over the Southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
will sink slowly South over the next few days...from the Southern
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...possibly as far South as
Kentucky. The Midsouth will remain on the backside of this
feature...so impact should be minimal. Expect near to slightly
below normal temperatures for most of the work week and into next
weekend. Moisture levels will remain low. A spoke of energy is
expected to rotate around the cutoff low tomorrow into tomorrow
night ushering in an associated cold front. However with the lack
of moisture we are not expecting any rainfall. West Tennessee may
see a slight increase in cloud cover. In the wake of the front,
temperatures will turn slightly cooler Thursday. Friday through
the weekend expect a gradual warming trend with some 80s returning
by Sunday afternoon.
Dry conditions...along low relative humidity and strengthening
winds aloft may result in Fire weather weather concerns tomorrow.
VFR conditions will prevail. Light winds and clear skies expected
overnight. A reinforcing dry cold front will move through on
Wednesday with winds shifting from the southwest to the northwest
and becoming gusty.