Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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725
FXUS64 KMEG 110532 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...

High pressure will remain over the Mid South through Monday.
Southwesterly low level winds will increase on Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens further. The stronger winds combined
with dewpoints in the lower 30s and dry fuel moisture levels will
lead to elevated fire danger across areas west of the Mississippi
River on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be much warmer with
highs in the lower to middle 60s.

A cold front will move through the region Monday night. Limited
moisture should allow the front to pass through dry. Colder
temperatures will again filter back into the area with dry
conditions persisting through the end of the week. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s, with lows in
the 20s and 30s. A reinforcing front will move through Thursday
night with even cooler conditions on Friday with highs in the 40s.

The persistent upper level trough over the eastern half of the
United States will finally lift out by next weekend being replaced
by zonal flow aloft. This will allow for warmer temperatures
through next weekend. A weak upper level shortwave in the flow
aloft will bring chances for isolated to scattered showers to the
forecast area by Saturday and Saturday night, with a return to dry
conditions by next Sunday.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

VFR to prevail through the period. 05Z GOES-13 water vapor imagery
showed a compact upper level disturbance dropping south/southeast
across the US-North Dakota/Canadian border. This feature and
associated surface cold front will drop into the Midsouth shortly
after sunset Monday evening, preceded by gusty southwest surface
winds Monday afternoon.

For late Monday evening MEM ops, it appears the surface cold front
will pass through just prior to the late evening arrival push.

Latest NAM guidance suggests elevated MVFR post-frontal deck may
edge into MEM around the outbound push early Tuesday morning,
along with an increased potential of northwesterly surface wind
gusts.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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