Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 030904
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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