Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 904 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/


Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thunderstorms
currently extend from extreme northwest Arkansas through southeast
Oklahoma and into north Texas. Some of these thunderstorms have
produced very large hail and possibly some tornadoes. This
activity will continue to move east overnight and reach the
forecast area before sunrise. At this point, it is expected that
these thunderstorms will decrease in strength overnight so that
severe weather is not expected when these storms move into the
forecast area but they will be monitored. Will update forecast to
remove evening wording with no big changes needed.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

Typical spring day over the Midsouth with a mix of clouds and
sun...comfortable humidities and light breezes. Temperatures this
hour ranged from the mid 60s in the the mid 70s south.

For tonight through upper level low in a series
over the next week will slide east along the KS/OK border this
period. This feature will lift a warm front through the Midsouth
tonight with short term models showing a few showers convecting on
the boundary after introduced a slight chance for
rain a bit further east before 27/12z. Off to the west MCS
expected to form later this afternoon in Oklahoma/North Texas will
follow the low into the Ozarks tonight...and all models show
activity weakening before reaching the Midsouth. Thus the
remaining mid and upper level moisture may only temporarily
damper recovery tomorrow...especially to points south of Interstate
forty. To the north more prolonged clouds and potential convection
is anticipated. Large hail is the greatest threat for any
afternoon/evening developing storms as 7.0C+ lapse rates
overspread the region. Short term model solutions are depicting
one line forming in afternoon over the eastern counties linked to
the shortwave/upper low energy...while a second line oriented more
northeast to southwest forms on the cold front across the western
counties a few hours later behind the shortwave axis. So a few
folks east of the Mississippi River may see more than one severe
storm. Portions of the region could be elevated to an Enhanced
risk. Temperatures will climb back into the 70s for highs with
lows both tonight and early Tuesday in the 50s and 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...the Midsouth will dry back out this period
with temperatures remaining above normal. The southern branch of
the PFJ remains active with next upper low moving into the Plains
Wednesday. Cloud cover and rain chances will ramp up through the
night as a new warm front lifts northeast out of the ARKLATEX.

Thursday and Friday...the aforementioned 500mb low will slowly
track across southern Missouri as the surface low becomes vertical
stacked. Still in question is recovering from convection
Wednesday night and cloud cover holding back instability. Models
indicate pockets of 1000 j/kg of CAPE reaching into the southern
counties by afternoon with backed a few rotating storms
may result producing an isolated tornado threat. The strongest
activity will exit to the east Thursday night...leaving mostly
cloudy skies and a few wrap around showers in the east for Friday
as the upper level moves up the Ohio River. Highs will lower from
the 70s Thursday to mainly 60s Friday with light northerly winds.

Next weekend...Saturday looks to be dry overall..with the last in
a series of weekly upper level lows bringing rain back on Sunday.



.AVIATION...00z Update

Winds should stay up a bit tonight limiting the development of any
fog. Wind will remain southerly generally 5-10kt tonight,
increasing again tomorrow 10-15 gusting to 25kt...then shift from
the West at JBR by 00z and 03z at MEM. TUP and MKL will likely
remain Southerly. Speeds will diminish to around 10 kt area wide
after sunset.

HRRR guidance has been fairly consistent in bringing a line of
showers and thunderstorms into the JBR area around Sunrise and MEM
around 13z. Strength of these storms is still the main question.
Id does appear more likely that JBR...MEM and MKL will see on
station thunderstorms tomorrow morning...lasting through midday.
Used the HRRR as a basis for timing. Brief periods of IFR or even
LIFR vis is likely with the heaviest thunderstorms although
prevailing conditions will likely remain MVFR. Tomorrow afternoon
thunderstorms should decrease in coverage and intensity with
showers continuing...especially east of the Mississippi River.
Most rainfall should come to an end by 2806z.




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