Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 032342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
542 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016
Updated for aviation discussion
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/
Skies are cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon with
temperatures mainly in the 40s. Light rain continues to slowly
spread northward and has reached portions of northeast Arkansas
and northwest Tennessee. Light rain will continue to fall across
the forecast area tonight as moisture continues to move across the
region from the southwest. Temperatures will not fall much tonight
due to the clouds and rain as lows Sunday morning will remain in
the low to mid 40s.
By Sunday, a warm front will be along the Gulf coast with a series
of low pressure centers forming along the front. This will help
to spread more moisture over the region and allow more light rain
to fall on Sunday. Temperatures will be a little warmer than today
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Bu Sunday night, high pressure will briefly build into the region
which will push the moisture south somewhat. This will bring a
brief end to the rain over northern sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be a little cooler in areas where the rain ends
as clouds decrease somewhat. Lows Monday morning will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.
By Monday, low pressure will form over the Texas Gulf coast and
track northeast. As this low moves through Louisiana into central
Mississippi, rain will return to the entire forecast area with
mainly showers and possibly a thunderstorms or two. Temperatures
will be a little warmer on Monday with highs from the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue on
Monday night and the surface low reaches into Middle Tennessee by
Tuesday morning. As the low pulls away from the region on Tuesday
the rain threat will end in the morning. High pressure will
briefly build into the region bringing a brief period of dry
weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
On Wednesday, a cold front will move through the region with a
chance of rain just ahead and behind it. It appears at this time
that any precipitation that falls should be before temperatures
drop below freezing so little if any snow is expected. Colder air
is expected to move into the region behind the front with lows
Thursday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s. High pressure will
start to build into the region with rain ending over eastern
sections of the forecast area in the morning. Temperatures will be
well below normal on Thursday with highs in the upper 30s to mid
High pressure will remain in control of the weather for the end of
the forecast period. This will mean dry weather with well below
normal temperatures for Thursday night through next Saturday.
Rain continues to spread across the region. Lower cigs and vsbys
are working into the Delta region SW of KMEM attm. Low levels will
gradually moisten this evening with cigs deteriorating to IFR at
all TAF sites over the next 6 hours. Expect IFR cigs to continue
well into Sunday despite rain tapering off. Cigs will gradually
lift Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front shifts winds to the NW.