Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER WARM
NIGHT IS IN STORE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER AFTER THE HEAT ADVISORY HAD EXPIRED.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY AND THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL ADDRESS THAT ISSUE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OR NORTHERN ARKANSAS. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BUT QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...DRIVEN BY INTENSE
HEATING...CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND...BIT OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
STORY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE ONE SHORTLY. TOMORROW AND SUNDAY HEAT
ADVISORIES LOOK EVEN MORE CERTAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS. HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS TEND TO BREAK THESE STRONG RIDGES DOWN TOO QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...THEN MAYBE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS MAY
REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND
UPWARDS MONDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THE STRONG RIDGE IS SLOWLY
REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH. MY BET IS THAT GUIDANCE IS A BIT
FAST WITH SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL KEEP ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT S-SW 6
KTS OR LESS. WINDS SATURDAY SW-W 5-9 KTS. WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT S-SW
4 KTS OR LESS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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