Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 282003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...595DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S...EVEN NEAR 80 ACROSS THE DELTA. THIS
IS PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110 ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH. UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

TONIGHT...VERY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT SINCE MODELS DO POINT TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND THIS FEATURE COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY NOSES INTO THE AREA A LITTLE
MORE AND 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE SLIGHTLY. MEANWHILE THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO POOL DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ALREADY VERY
HIGH ACROSS THE DELTA. ALL THESE FACTORS POINT TO A VERY HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 110 OVER A GOOD DEAL OF
THE AREA. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER EVEN EAST. SINCE THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL QUITE STRONG
WEDNESDAY ELECTED TO CUT POPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. KEPT POPS A LITTLE HIGHER THERE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO ALABAMA DURING THE DAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. AS A RESULT PRECIP CHANCES ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE. MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BREAK
THIS STREAK OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN
WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS HOWEVER...THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI COULD
HIT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
WATCH.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY CLIMB EACH DAY BACK INTO THE MID 90S EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORTUNATELY THE AIRMASS WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 60S WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH MORE PLEASANT.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

TSRA CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN RIVER. NOT
LIKELY NEAR ENOUGH TO MKL TO WARRANT VCTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.

OTHER THAN PATCHY MVFR VSBY AT MKL...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BY AROUND 15Z...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-
     CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-
     LAKE-LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
     HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$


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