Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
539 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/


09Z SFC analysis shows a warm front extending across portions of
North Mississippi from just south of Clarksdale to Oxford, and
then eastward to Booneville, Mississippi. The front is associated
with a low pressure center that is located over Northern
Louisiana this morning. Scattered showers with a few elevated
thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front. The SFC low will
track northeastward roughly along the Mississippi River today as
the warm front surges northward into Western Kentucky. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms will blossom over the CWA this morning
as an upper trof begins to move into the region. Abnormally high
PW`s for this time of year will allow the shower and thunderstorms
to be heavy at times. As a result, WPC has issued a marginal to
slight risk for excessive rainfall for much of West Tennessee and
North Mississippi. Flash flood guidance values are fairly low so
there is the potential for isolated flash flooding to occur with
the heavier showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, there could be
some isolated breaks in the cloud cover by mid-day into the early
afternoon hours across Northeast Mississippi and areas of West
Tennessee near the Tennessee River that may provide enough
instability for a few of the storms to become strong to severe. A
marginal risk for severe storm exists across Northeast Mississippi
for this reason. Highs will range from the mid 50s across
Northeast Arkansas to the upper 60s across Northeast Mississippi.

The upper trof will swing through the Mid-South this evening. This
will push the showers and thunderstorms eastward into Middle
Tennessee by midnight. Low clouds and possibly some fog will
develop during the overnight hours. Winds will remain light from
the south as the upper flow remains out of the south west. Thus
expect low temperatures to remain mild with readings in the 50s.

The Mid-South will remain mild on Friday thanks to the light
southerly flow. Expect a lull in precipitation as the area will be
between the departing low pressure system and the next one. After
some morning low clouds, clouds should break up some in the
afternoon allowing temperatures to soar into the lower to mid 70s
across much of the area.

A shortwave moving through Central Mississippi could set off some
isolated showers and thunderstorms possibly late Friday Night into
Saturday morning across portions of Northeast Mississippi
generally southeast of Tupelo. Otherwise, expect another mild
night across the area with lows in the 50s.

By Saturday afternoon, rain chances will begin again as showers
and thunderstorms develop out ahead of the next low pressure
system. There continues to be differences in the evolution the
system amongst the models. Regardless, the SFC low and trailing
cold front will move into western portions of the CWA Saturday
evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase over
the Mid-South by Saturday evening. With the warm, moist and at
least slightly unstable airmass in place, some of these storms
have the potential to become severe. There is a marginal risk for
severe storms along and south of Interstate 40 for Saturday night
while south of a Charleston to Tupelo, Mississippi line there is a
slight risk.

The low pressure system will continue to track eastward into the
Mid-South on Sunday into Sunday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the area as a result. Expect the
only severe risk on Sunday will be the potential for large hail
as the upper low tracks directly over the CWA. The system will
move east of the CWA overnight Sunday. Although some lingering
showers from the system will occur into Monday morning for areas
near the Tennessee River.

Cooler temperatures will occur on Monday as winds turn around to
the northwest. Highs will be in the 50s.

However, a warm-up will occur again on Tuesday as an upper ridge
moves over the region. Highs will rebound into the 60s for much of
the area.

A cold front will then move through the region Tuesday Night into
Wednesday. The front will bring an end to the January thaw that
the Mid-South has been experiencing. Temperatures will return to
more winter like behind the front which continue through the
beginning of February according to the latest 8-14 day outlook
from CPC.



/12z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase across the CWA and
will be around through the morning hours, continuing into the
evening east of the Mississippi River. Thunder was included at
various times for all forecast terminals. Ceilings and
visibilities are likely to bounce around today, being heavily
influenced by convection. Prevailing IFR and tempo LIFR conditions
this morning will gradually improve after 18z, with the exception
being KJBR which is forecast to remain IFR until late afternoon.

Additional showers this evening should eventually move east, but
low clouds are expected to redevelop overnight. There may also be
periods of drizzle/fog which may lower ceilings and visibilities
into IFR/LIFR, mainly after 06z.





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