Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 030835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KTUP AND KMKL NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11
KNOTS...BECOMING LESS THAN 4 KTS AFTER 04/02Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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