Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 232132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
332 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A stationary front continues to meander across West Tennessee and
Northwest Mississippi. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
across Northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee near
the Tennessee River east of the front while locations across
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel are in the lower to
mid 50s.

Two areas of rain are occurring the region at this time. The first
area of rain continues to affect Northeast Arkansas which will
likely continue into the evening hours. The second area of rain is
currently located across Central and Southern Mississippi and is
quickly moving northward. The rain should move into North
Mississippi over the next 1-3 hours and then will continue moving
north into West Tennessee. There will be chances for embedded
thunderstorms within the area of rain moving up from Central and
Southern Mississippi.

After midnight, expect the front to finally begin lifting
northward as a warm front as a SFC low lifts northward out of
Northeast Texas into Eastern Oklahoma. Chances for showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms will then shift north of the warm
front and will likely continue to impact areas of Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee.

There will likely be a lull in activity Saturday morning from
between sunrise to mid-morning. Thereafter, thunderstorms will
begin developing Southern Arkansas and Northeast Texas and will
quickly move northeastward into Northeast Arkansas. The chances
will increase into the afternoon hours. These storms have the
potential to become severe as temperatures will rise into 70s
across the area with some locations possibly reaching 80 degrees
across Northeast Mississippi. This will create at least a
marginally unstable airmass with adequate helicity values thanks
to the proximity of the SFC low. These storms will be capable of
producing tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. If some breaks
in the clouds occur, then it would increase instability across the
area producing even better chances for severe weather.

The clusters of storms across Central Arkansas will eventually
evolve into a line of thunderstorms. The line will begin pushing
east into Eastern Arkansas during the late afternoon into the
early evening hours. The line will push east through the rest of
the Mid-South during the evening and overnight hours with the
potential for severe storms continuing. Flash flooding and/or
additional river flooding may also occur as heavy rain is expected
with the thunderstorms. An additional 2-4 inches of rain will be
possible through Saturday Night.

High pressure will gradually build into the area Sunday into early
next week allowing for some dry conditions to occur. Temperatures
will be seasonable with highs ranging from upper 50s to the upper
60s.

Another low pressure system will affect the Mid-South Tuesday
Night through Thursday morning. There is the potential for severe
storms with this system as well. With a saturated ground and
ongoing river flooding, any additional additional rainfall may
aggravate flooding concerns. Stay tuned.

KRM


&&

.AVIATION...

Front has wavered toward the southeast a bit this morning. Light
SHRAs will move across NE AR this afternoon. Conds have improved
across the area to a mix of MVFR/VFR NW of the front, including
KMKL, KMEM and KJBR to VFR south of the front, including KTUP.
Expect a cluster of SHRAs and isolated TSRAs to move across the
area this evening into the overnight hours as the front lifts back
north as a warm front. After 24/07-24/09z expect IFR cigs to
return through the mid morning hours. TSRAs will move into the
KJBR area toward 24/18z and will start to scrape the KMEM area by
25/00z though clusters ahead of the main line of storms could
start to impact the airfield sooner.

Winds will generally be light and variable invof the front
becoming south around 10 mph by Saturday morning. Winds will
increase Saturday afternoon to 15-20 mph with higher gusts.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lawrence-Lee AR-Mississippi-
     Phillips-Poinsett-Randolph-St. Francis.

MO...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Coahoma-DeSoto-Marshall-Panola-Quitman-Tate-Tippah-Tunica.

TN...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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