327
FXUS66 KOTX 091139
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
439 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the
highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures
reaching the 80s, with a few areas rising into the lower 90s. The
weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however odds
favor a cooling trend with increasing clouds, and a small chance
of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast
Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday: Dry and quiet weather is expected for the
next couple of days as an upper level ridge encompasses the Pacific
Northwest. Today, winds will be slightly breezy out of the northeast
before decreasing by Friday. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s
to mid 80s across the Inland Northwest today and warm further into
the upper 70s to low 90s for Friday and Saturday. There is a 80-90%
chance of high temperatures 90 degrees or warmer on Saturday for
Omak, Bridgeport, Entiat, and Wenatchee, which will be near record
values for these locations. For the Columbia Basin, this decreases
to about 60-70% chance. These temperatures are about 10 to 20
degrees above average for this time of the year. Those who are
sensitive to heat or not yet acclimated to this type of heat should
plan to take some extra precautions if planning to spend time
outside this weekend. Water temperatures for lakes and rivers across
the region are on average in the upper 40s and low 50s. Please be
mindful of this if planning to spend some time near or on the water.
Hypothermia and loss of muscle control happens very quickly when
swimming in water temperatures this low. /vmt

Saturday night to Wednesday: The mild ridge holds on long enough
to bring another warm day at the start of the period, before
shortwave disturbances start to moderate temperatures and bring
breezy conditions and localized shower chances. Between Saturday
night and Sunday the ridge axis starts to shift east, while the
first disturbance approaches from the west. For the most part this
will continue to mean dry, mostly clear conditions. Some clouds
will start to increase from the west later. Highs will be in the
upper 70s and 80s, with a few areas in the deeper basin
approaching 90. This will be comparable to Saturday in most
locations, save for near the Cascades as the onshore flow starts
to allow some temperatures to trend slightly cooler.

Then Sunday night into Tuesday a shortwave trough migrates across
the region, leading to increased clouds and some shower chances.
The limited shower chances will come to the Cascade crest and near
the Canadian border mountains Sunday night into Monday, expanding
to the Idaho Panhandle mountains going into Monday night and
Tuesday especially near the ID/MT border. This will also come with
breezy conditions, starting on Sunday and continuing through the
week. Right now gusts near 15-20 mph will be most common, save for
Sunday night into Monday with the passing shortwave when winds
could gust near 20-30 mph especially in unsheltered areas.

Heading into Wednesday, guidance starts to diverge some with some
models indicating a ridge over the region and others a trough.
About 30% of the guidance indicated a trough and about 70%
indicate a ridge around Wednesday afternoon. So the forecasts
leans on that. This keeps shower chances alive around the mountain
zones, along with marginally breezy conditions.

As for temperatures, Monday through Wednesday temperatures drop
back with highs in the 70s, with some areas near 80 in the deeper
basin. However we will keep an eye on guidance should models
start to trend more toward a trough, which would mean broader
shower chances and temperatures cooler than currently forecast.
/Solveig


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period as high pressure builds over the region. Surface winds will
shift to the northeast late this morning with some breeziness
through the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        75  46  79  49  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  75  45  78  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        72  45  76  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       77  50  82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       77  43  82  47  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      73  46  78  48  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        71  48  76  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     80  48  85  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      78  55  84  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           82  50  86  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$