Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 231129
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
429 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather for the weekend will be quite warm. Afternoon
temperatures on Saturday will likely reach the mid 80s to low 90s.
Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with most lowland areas
reaching the 90s. A return to cooler, more average temperatures
are expected by the middle of next week, with breezy conditions
possible late Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night: A strong upper-level ridge will
amplify along the Western US Coastline over the next 48 hours
then shift inland on Sunday. The Inland Northwest will remain
quite dry with temperatures climbing well above average. Friday
will feature widespread 80s then by Sunday afternoon, expect most
locations to be in the 90s. A few locations in the lower Columbia
Basin may be reading triple digits by the end of the weekend.
Winds will be light over the next few days blowing from the
north/northeast today and Saturday then swinging around to
east/southeast Sunday. /sb

Monday through Tuesday night: By Monday, the main ridge axis has
shifted east but nonetheless it will be another hot day with 850
mb temps in the 23-25 C range yielding widespread upper 80s and
90s. By Monday evening, both the GFS and to somewhat a lesser
extent the EC advertise a wave riding up from the SW through SE WA
and the central Idaho Panhandle. The instability over this region
is mainly capped but there may be just enough forcing to get a
couple thunderstorms going during the evening and into the
overnight hours. If any storms can get going, forecast soundings
show the potential for some gusty outflow winds. Winds over the
East Slopes will also be on the increase by the evening hours
Monday.

The ridge breaks down overnight Monday and into Tuesday as a
system passes by to the north dragging its associated cold front
through the region. The GFS still wants to bring the shortwave
further south clipping the northeast portions of our forecast area
while the EC keeps the low well north in Canada. Because of this,
maintained a small shower/thunderstorm chance across far NE WA
and the N Idaho Panhandle. The main weather concern for Tuesday
will be the windy and dry conditions. The gradient tightens by
Monday night and Tuesday resulting in gusty west-southwest winds.
Bufkit and 850 mb winds suggest gusts generally in the 20-35 mph
range, perhaps higher in the usual Cascade gaps. Drier air will
also be filtering into the region, and while high temperatures
Tuesday will be around 10 F cooler than Monday, RHs will be in the
mid teens to mid 20s. This combination low RHs and gusty winds
after several days of hot/dry weather will lead to fire weather
concerns in the Monday evening through Tuesday night time frame,
particularly for the finer fuels in the Basin.

Wednesday through Friday: By Wednesday, the gradient slackens with
decreasing winds and near seasonal temperatures. From here, models
are in somewhat better agreement keeping the region in northwest
flow with the occasional passing wave. This will lead to near
seasonal temperatures and the occasional small precip chance over
the mountains of NE WA and the N ID Panhandle. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Dry northwest flow will continue VFR conditions to the
TAF sites through the period. Expect light winds through Saturday
morning. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  55  87  59  93  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  78  50  84  54  91  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        79  51  85  55  91  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       85  56  91  59  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       81  48  87  52  92  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      78  45  83  49  88  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        77  48  83  51  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     87  54  93  56  98  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      86  60  92  62  97  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           85  54  91  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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