Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPSR 182135
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
235 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED EVEN THOUGH STRONG HEATING HAS
TAKEN PLACE ELEVATING MLCAPES TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS HAVE
TRIED TO GO UP ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY...BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND
THE EXITING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM ODILE IS LIKELY THE
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND
CHANCE POPS ACROSS GILA COUNTY. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME
HEATING...FEELING IS ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WON/T LAST VERY LONG INTO
THIS EVENING.

AREA PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS ARIZONA WILL REMAIN IN THE
1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER LOW DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY. MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD. BY SATURDAY...ENHANCED LIFT IN A FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WINDS ALOFT WILL TURN
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LOW BRINGING
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE PRESENT FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD...THUS WE WILL KEEP LOW END
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

TROPICAL TYPE HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SMALL TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH
THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BKN CIGS OCNLY 6 THSD AGL. CLEARING A FEW HOURS AFTER
DARK...OR AFTER 02Z FRI. FROM 02Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 06Z FRI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
FROM 06Z FRI TO 19Z FRI...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN NORMAL...IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. GOOD RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ














USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.