Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KPSR 052155
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
255 PM MST SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MOST OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BEING PUSHED
INTO EASTERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FORECAST NEAR NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA...NW PINAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LIGHT STEERING FLOWS ALOFT...STORMS ARE
SLOW MOVING AND PUTTING OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. RADAR ESTIMATES ON
AVERAGE AROUND 0.25IN FALLING IN MOST BASINS WITHIN THE LAST
HOUR...BUT SOME ISOLATED BASINS SHOW UPWARDS OF AN INCH WITH SOME
STORMS...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF SOME URBAN SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES.

THIS CONVECTION FINALLY PICKED UP DUE TO A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS MADE USE OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE
DESERTS... AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WITH THE BULK OF THE STORMS CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THEY TRAVEL...STORMS
WILL PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WITH PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING...
AND EVEN WITH RAIN COOLED AIR...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE 300-250MB ANTICYCLONE CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO JUST NORTH OF MAZATLAN MEXICO BY TOMORROW...THEN MOVE
WELL OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A
BREAK TO OUR MONSOON FOR SEVERAL DAYS...GENERATING A DRIER AND
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA UNTIL FRIDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHED INTO
EASTERN AZ BY TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY/ZONE 24 THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT...IN THE 100-106 RANGE...BUT
WILL BE MODERATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DECREASED 500MB HEIGHTS/IN THE
582DM RANGE/ AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERCHED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...AND THE
300/250MB HIGH CENTERS ARE FORECAST SHIFT BACK TOWARD EL PASO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS INDICATES A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM
MEXICO FIRST INTO SOUTHEAST AZ SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF AZ ON
SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS PERIOD.

$$

.AVIATION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING SW OF TERMINALS...ODDLY MODEL GUIDANCE FAILS TO MOVE THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE PHOENIX METRO THIS AFTERNOON. HELD OFF ON ANY TAF
MENTION OF AVIATION IMPACTS...THOUGH ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS FROM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY OCCUR. LOFTED DUST MAY ALSO AFFECT SLANTWISE
VISIBILITIES FOR ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY IF TSRA STARTS ERUPTING INTO THE PHOENIX METRO LATE
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 8K FT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS SHOULD STAY SWLY
THROUGH THE EVENING...SLOWLY SHIFTING TO EAST BY SUNRISE. FAR MORE
QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH STORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING WELL EAST OF
PHOENIX.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS FOR SERN CALIFORNIA SITES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN
BEING OCCASIONAL GUSTY SFC WINDS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT
THIS WEEK...PUSHING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WELL TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. EVEN THE
TYPICALLY ACTIVE REGIONS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY MAY LACK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVEL WILL RETREAT BACK INTO A 10-15 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINATE ALL WEEK...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS THAN IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.