Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 231022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
322 AM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures will persist
through the weekend with near record highs each day. High
pressure will weaken early next week bringing cooler, although
still above average temperatures.


The impressively strong upper level ridge with 500mb heights up to
595dm just to the southwest of Yuma will continue to bring record
or near record temperatures through this weekend. Highs today will
likely reach 90 degrees in the warmest desert locations while a
forecast high of 89 degrees in Phoenix would break the record of
87 degrees. Some high clouds should move in across much of the
region tonight lasting through Friday, likely keeping Friday`s
highs a degree or two cooler than today. The upper level ridge
will remain nearly stationary through the weekend with 500mb
heights ranging between 588-593dm across southern California and
southern Arizona. Very little change in temperatures is seen for
the weekend with desert highs again reaching into the middle to
upper 80s. Drier air moving in from the southwest Friday night and
Saturday will push any high clouds off to the north and east.

Record heights and temperatures will finally end early next week
as a deep upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast digs
southeastward into the Great Basin on Monday. This will quickly
lower heights aloft across the Desert Southwest and bring a cold
front through the area starting Monday afternoon. Highs Monday
will cool into the 70s across southern California, but still
likely reach into the lower 80s for much of the southern Arizona
deserts. The cold front will also bring breezy to windy conditions
starting Monday evening lasting through Tuesday, especially
across the Lower Colorado River Valley where gusts to 35 mph will
be possible. For now models are in good agreement keeping the
shortwave trough and any significant moisture to our north,
passing through the Four Corners area Monday night. However, it`s
very possible at least some mid level CU and maybe a few virga
showers will pass over south-central Arizona along and just ahead
of the cold front later Monday.

Heights aloft should temporarily rebuild a bit for next Tuesday,
but shouldn`t allow for any additional warming as at least one
shortwave trough is shown moving into California and possibly the
Desert Southwest sometime during the latter part of next week.
Temperatures should remain above normal for a good portion if not
all of next week with desert highs generally in the middle 70s,
but will depend on the potential low pressure system. If models
stick with this solution in subsequent model runs, temperatures
will trend lower and precip chances may finally return.


South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
The variable/westerly winds this afternoon have completely shifted
easterly, although wind speeds will remain light. Diurnal wind
patterns should return tomorrow with a westerly shift occurring
around 21z-23z. Otherwise, expect clear skies and no aviation
weather impacts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Very light winds following typical diurnal tendencies will
prevail for the next 24 hours although there may be periods of
variable winds. Skies will remain clear with no major aviation
weather concerns.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


Thursday through Monday: Strong high pressure aloft will persist
across the lower deserts for the rest of the week and likely into
early next week as well. This will keep high temperatures well above
seasonal normals with the warmer deserts into the mid to upper 80s
most every day this week. Sunny to mostly sunny days are on tap
through Saturday, with some increase in mid and high clouds expected
Sunday into Monday. Expect relatively dry conditions as well with
minimum RH values each day running from the teens to around 20
percent. Winds each day will be on the light side, favoring typical
diurnal tendencies especially across the south-central deserts.


Record highs for selected dates this week:

Date      Phoenix       Yuma
----      -------       ----
Nov 23    87 in 1950    87 in 1950
Nov 24    88 in 1950    89 in 1950
Nov 25    88 in 1950    90 in 1950
Nov 26    88 in 1950    87 in 1950

The Phoenix record high for any Thanksgiving is 87 on Nov 23 1950
and Nov 27 2014. The Yuma record high for any Thanksgiving is 87
on Nov 23 1950.

Most days of 80+ during November in Phoenix: 24 in 1949.
Most days of 80+ during November in Yuma: 24 in 1954, 1950, and 1949.

Latest 90+ day in Phoenix: Nov 15 (1999)
Latest 90+ day in Yuma: Nov 25 (1950)


Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.




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