Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 240315
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
815 PM MST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
REGION...WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. A COOLING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 589DM ACROSS ARIZONA PER THE 00Z
PLOT DATA. IR IMAGERY AT 8 PM SHOWED GENLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. DESPITE THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND VERY HIGH
HEIGHTS RESULTED IN VERY WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY.
PHOENIX TOPPED OUT AT 94 DEGREES...8 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TOMORROW WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND MILD
OVERNIGHT TEMPS. NO UPDATES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF MID 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF ARIZONA. MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MOHAVE AND
COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SO FAR...WE HAVE ONLY
HAD 4 DAYS BELOW 90 DEGREES. OUR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY DROPPING EACH DAY OR SO AND WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S BY THE
END OF THE MONTH.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WHAT WILL
BE A WEAK TROUGH IMPACTING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO US IN ARIZONA...OUTSIDE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE EARLY START OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW 576DM EARLY MONDAY. BECAUSE
OF THIS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE NEXT
STRETCH...HOWEVER COOL MEANING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 320AM MST/PDT OCT 23/...
COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COOLEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE MONDAY AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH PASSES BY THE FOUR CORNERS. LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST OF 85 DEGREES IN PHOENIX FOR MONDAY WOULD BE THE
COOLEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 9TH. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT SUGGESTING NIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND POPS REMAIN NEAR 0 PERCENT.
THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY FOR GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AT THE TAF SITES. VERY WEAK SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS SO WIND AT THE TERMINALS WILL FAVOR LIGHT VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5KT FOR THE MOST PART...OCCASIONALLY TENDING TOWARDS NORMAL
DIURNAL SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

DATE         PHOENIX
----         -------
FRI OCT 24   96 IN 2007
SAT OCT 25   96 IN 1990

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED DAYTIME WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE
MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY/HIRSCH
CLIMATE...MO/HIRSCH
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS










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