Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 111957
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
257 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)...
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area
tonight with mostly clear skies and winds becoming light and
variable. Temperatures will fall into the 40s for lows,
except lower to mid 50s along the coast. Have a small area
of patchy frost in place across Highlands county, but
otherwise temperatures should be too warm to allow for frost
formation. A front will then move through the area Tuesday
afternoon, with winds increasing from the west for the late
morning and afternoon, and skies becoming mostly cloudy.
There may be a stray shower over the central or southern
coastal waters in the afternoon, but very limited moisture
should restrict any shower development over land. Highs are
expected to reach into the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)...
Broad mid/upper level troughing will remain over the eastern
half of the CONUS through the week with a more zonal flow
over the area during the weekend before the next deepening
trough slides across the eastern states early next week. At
the surface, a cold front will move away from the region
Tuesday night with breezy and cooler air moving in through
Wednesday as another area of high pressure builds in from
the west. This high moves across the region Thursday and out
into the Atlantic Ocean Friday as the next cold front
approaches from the northwest Thursday night and Friday with
a quick moderating trend. The global models continuing to
show some timing differences with the ECMWF still slower by
about 6 to 12 hours and a little wetter than the GFS. For
now have gone with slight chance to chance PoPs for Thursday
night and chance to likely PoPs on Friday. High pressure
will build in from the west Friday night and move across the
Florida peninsula Saturday night bringing fair dry weather
and seasonably cool temperatures. Temperatures will quickly
moderate Sunday and Monday as the high moves well out into
the Atlantic Ocean and the next cold front approaches from
the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period, with light
north winds becoming NW later this afternoon. Winds then
become light and variable overnight with mostly clear skies,
then increase and become gusty from the W/SW as VFR ceilings
move in by the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and seas through tonight with high pressure in
place. Winds and seas will then increase on Tuesday as the
pressure gradient increases with the frontal passage. SCA
conditions are expected to start developing later Tuesday
morning/early afternoon, so will hold off for now with an
SCA. Winds will then subside early Wednesday morning as high
pressure builds over the state. The next cold front will
then move into the area on Friday, with winds and seas again
increasing to SCA levels. High pressure will then be in
place over the area through the rest of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will have excellent dispersions on Tuesday afternoon with
strong and gusty winds in place, but RH values will be above
critical levels so no warning are needed. Winds will subside
for Wednesday afternoon, but RH values will be below
critical levels for a few hours. ERC values should remain
below thresholds for any warnings, but will monitor. The
rest of the period will have RHs remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  51  73  46  62 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  48  75  48  66 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  45  72  40  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  73  47  63 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  41  73  37  61 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  54  72  48  62 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



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