Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 011321
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA) OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
(PW`S IN THE 2.2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL FAVOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
TODAY...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION
EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. WITH MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWING RATHER
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS (-4.7C) AND SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH I THINK THAT THE ONSET OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DELAYED AND THE OVERALL T-STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED
TODAY (ISOLATED RANGE AT BEST) WITH MAINLY SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION VFR WILL PREVAIL. PREVAILING VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO
10 KNOTS AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO ALL
SITES AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. WIND AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. ONGOING FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS SUMMER...AND PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LAST 5 WEEKS OR SO...HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY SIX
RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD STAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS REMAIN THE CYPRESS CREEK...THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF THE PEACE RIVER AND HORSE CREEK NEAR
ARCADIA...THE HEADWATERS OF THE WITHLACOOCHEE AT TRILBY...AND THE
MYAKKA RIVER. THE ANCOTE RIVER IS RISING AND EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
NEAR ITS FLOOD STAGE ON THURSDAY.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
HYDROLOGY/UPPER AIR...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.