Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 030908
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
408 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON
BAY TO THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN EXTENDED NORTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SPRAWLED
DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REACHED FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHWEST MEXICO...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN NY/PA DOMINATED MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES
WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRETCHING FROM
QUEBEC TO SOUTHERN AZ/NM...WHILE THE YUCATAN RIDGE SLIDES
EAST-NORTHEAST...TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE AREA WITH A WARM AND STABLE AIR MASS AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.
THE NY/PA HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES
EAST...AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS FL TO THE GULF. THIS RESULTS IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. THE MID CONUS FRONT PUSHES EAST...REACHING FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH TX.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SHIFTING AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
FOG AND SEA FOG THROUGH WED. THE FOG ON LAND WILL BE PATCHY TO AREAS
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WILL AGAIN FORM LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH ARE 1 MILE OR
LESS WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE...WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 9 AM. THE SEA FOG WILL BE DISCUSSED IN
THE MARINE SECTION.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CUBA THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS RIDGING WILL SLIP EASTWARD SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT IS RIDGING WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST UNTIL THURSDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
STRATUS AND FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...OVER LAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS.
TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH VIRGINIA INTO TENNESSEE. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY...THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND THEREFORE
THE RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL OUT OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS ON FRIDAY APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOG CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY DIVERGES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
ECMWF TAKES THE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEVELOPS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
GFS DOES TRY TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE GULF COAST BY MID WEEK BUT
IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS MODEL IN
KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS THE DOMINANT FACTOR THEREFORE
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 04/06Z. LOW VSBY/CIG IN PLACE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
IFR TO LCL LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTH
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER SHAPE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME IFR BEFORE SUNRISE.
VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS WINDS TURN TO SOUTHERLY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...
PATCHY TO AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
ESPECIALLY WED WHEN WINDS FINALLY BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WILL CLEAR OUT THE FOG
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH SPEED OCCASIONALLY
AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG FROM LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TO MID-MORNING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  65  80  65 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  84  65  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  82  64  85  65 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  80  63  80  64 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  82  59  84  59 /  10  10   0  10
SPG  79  66  80  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...74/WYNN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.