Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 081453
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...

.MORNING UPDATE...
A COLOSSAL UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S...OPENING THE DOOR TO COLD DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASSES FROM THE
NORTH. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES ARE DRIVING
THESE COLD AIRMASSES SOUTHWARD ON THE HEELS OF POWERFUL COLD
FRONTS. ONE SUCH FRONT WILL SWIFTLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN COOLER AIR...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.

THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK. SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS WERE MADE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WORDING OF
ONLY LIGHT RAIN AS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO
THE EXISTING HAZARDS...OPTING FOR AN EARLIER ONSET TIME OF GALE
CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND MAINTAINING GALE TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WE APPEAR TO BE IN FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT BUT
COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
WINDS. SUSTAINED WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS INITIALLY...AND
RAPIDLY FILL INTO THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS BY
THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR PROBABLE...WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO
BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FEET OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BY MID
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  49  58  45 /  10  20  10  10
FMY  66  56  65  48 /   0  20  10  10
GIF  66  45  59  42 /  10  20  10  10
SRQ  66  55  61  48 /  10  20  10  10
BKV  64  45  58  38 /  20  30  10  10
SPG  65  52  59  48 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...10/LAMARRE


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