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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200129
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
EVENING...BUT LINGERING POCKETS OF INSTABILITY FROM AREAS THAT
WEREN/T WORKED OVER EARLIER IN THE DAY CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY 20 POPS
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCALES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75 WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE ONGOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THAT
WITH FURTHER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END BY
MIDNIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF DENSE CIRRUS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA...SO SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE INCREASE
IN DENSE CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD REMAIN HIGHLY LOCALIZED. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION FOG
IN THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LCL
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE
AREAS OR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN EARLIER TODAY. MORE SEABREEZE
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  87  71  87 /   0  40  20  50
FMY  71  90  70  90 /  20  50  30  50
GIF  70  88  69  88 /  20  50  30  50
SRQ  70  87  69  87 /   0  30  20  50
BKV  66  88  66  88 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  74  87  72  87 /   0  30  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...DAVIS