Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240731
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
331 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
The pattern of light southwesterly flow continues through
the short term period. A persistent sub tropical ridge
continues to extend from the Atlantic through the southern
and central Florida Peninsula, with weak southwesterly low
level flow across much of the forecast area. Scattered
thunderstorms are already developing over the Gulf waters
and are moving into the Nature Coast, and similar to
previous days, this early convection will continue to expand
and shift onshore through the rest of the morning. Drier
mid level air has been advecting into the area, particularly
over the southern half of the forecast area, This will keep
storm coverage somewhat limited for July, although enough
low level moisture and surface heating will be available for
isolated to scattered storms. The drier air will ensure
that the convection comes to a fairly quick end through the
late afternoon and early evening as storms migrate inland.

The overall pattern will be similar on Tuesday. Once again,
dry mid level air will keep rain chances below normal for
Florida in July, with generally 20-30 percent coverage.
Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s
and low 90s, and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Upper level troughing across the southeastern states and
along the northern Gulf coast will keep the subtropical
ridge suppressed across the south-central Florida peninsula
through Friday. During next weekend a stronger amplifying
upper level trough will develop over the eastern U.S. which
will push the subtropical ridge even further south to lie
across the Florida Straits as the southern extension of the
upper level trough moves into the southeastern states and
north Florida.

With the surface ridge axis forecast to lie across the
south-central Florida peninsula through Friday, and then
across the Florida Straits during next weekend a persistent
onshore southwest to west wind flow will continue across the
entire forecast area. This flow regime will favor daily
late night and early morning scattered shower and
thunderstorm development over the adjacent Gulf waters with
this convection then pushing onshore along the coast during
the morning hours, then spreading to inland locations each
afternoon. Drier mid level air (via model cross-sections)
should keep overall convective coverage below seasonal norms
through Wednesday, then higher storm coverage and pops
should return by late in the week and into next weekend as
deep layered moisture increases across the region.

Warm and muggy conditions will continue especially along the
coast where overnight lows in the upper 70s to around 80
can be expected daily with mid 70s inland, with daytime
highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the
coast, and lower to mid 90s inland with heat indices in the
100 to 105 degree range each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the
overnight period, although brief MVFR ceilings cannot be
completely ruled out. Scattered showers and storms will form
over the eastern Gulf and will shift east into the coast
around sunrise, potentially impacting terminals through the
morning hours. Somewhat drier air aloft will bring a quick
end to the rain chances this afternoon, particularly across
southwest Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to ridge from the Atlantic
across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico
through the first half of the week, then will shift
southeast Thursday and Friday, keeping light winds in place
across the coastal waters. Winds and seas will remain light,
outside of daily thunderstorms. Storms will develop over
the waters during the late night and early morning hours,
and will shift east into the coast through the morning and
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity will stay well
above critical levels through the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  79  91  79 /  40  10  20  10
FMY  91  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  91  76  94  76 /  30  10  30  10
SRQ  88  79  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
BKV  89  75  91  74 /  50  10  20  10
SPG  89  79  91  80 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/Fleming
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael



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