Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241859
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SEEN ALONG THE
COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND ANY THAT DO FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN...THOUGH AT LEAST ONE
LOCAL MODEL IS NOT HITTING IT QUITE AS HARD AS IT WAS FOR THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SLOWLY BUILDING. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CLOSE
TO THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90 INLAND...AND THEN WILL
BE EVEN A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW DEVELOPING LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING
TO THE THREAT OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND.
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20 POPS FOR EACH DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT KLAL AND KPGD...BUT
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN WHAT WE SAW
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  84  68  84 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  66  86  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  66  87  65  88 /  20  10   0  10
SRQ  63  80  64  83 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  58  85  60  86 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  68  82  69  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...69/CLOSE





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