Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 231928
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
228 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Saturday)...
Stacked ridging to keep near record high temps again in many
areas this afternoon in humid low level SE flow. Models
continue to indicate a slight chance of seabreeze convergence
low topped showers in coastal areas into this evening.

Overnight, the warm and humid airmass to remain in place and again
help produce areas of dense fog and low clouds over the Nature
Coast with some localized patchy fog elsewhere mainly in typical
fog prone areas.

On Saturday, warm and humid stacked ridging continues while the
W Atlantic surface high pressure area slightly weakens and sinks
southward allowing the winds to slightly veer SE-S and the gradient
to relax a little for better bay and seabreezes development
and inland movement which will keep coastal sites well above
normal but not at record levels like the last 4 days. Mean layer
moisture continues its slow increase for another slight chance
of diurnal seabreeze POPs mainly around the I-75 corridor.

.MID-LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Friday)...
GFS and ECMWF in fair agreement at 500 mb through Wednesday
with strong upper level ridge keeping local temperatures 6
to 10 degrees above normal with a 10-20% chance of afternoon
and evening showers. However, GFS a bit stronger with
convergence along a sea breeze front Saturday afternoon and
evening with scattered showers (30-40%) along the west coast
of Florida.

Both models eject and upper level short wave in the southwest U.S.
Wednesday into the Great Lakes region later on Thursday, then begin
to diverge. Both models bring a cool front through forecast area on
Friday, but the GFS is stronger with the cold air advection. The GFS
MEX is showing normal temperatures of 75 at The Villages. Will split
the difference with the ECE with high temperatures Friday forecast
to be 3-5 degrees above normal rather than the current 6-10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VRF conditions expected with a SCT-BKN 050-070 cloud
deck at TAF sites rest of the afternoon into tonight with an
isolated light shower possible near the coast. Overnight, patchy
fog with MVFR vsbys in typical fog prone areas especially
around LAL and PGD from around 10Z-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to remain in the region with light E-SE winds and
seas along with afternoon seabreezes daily. Winds and seas expected
to remain below and headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions to continue through the weekend and
into early next week with light southeast winds and seabreezes
near the coast.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  83  68  83 /  20  10  30   0
FMY  66  84  66  85 /  10  10  10  10
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  20  10
SRQ  67  81  67  80 /  10  10  20   0
BKV  63  85  64  85 /  20  10  30   0
SPG  68  83  68  83 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...72/Noah



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