Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 150925
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTHERN GULF TODAY THEN BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND WEST AS
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL
WEAKEN SOME TODAY AND BE PUSHED SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

FOR TODAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETUP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST...RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
ZONES WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING WELL INLAND...AND EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT OR DELAY CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO
INDICATING MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST WHERE SCATTERED POPS ARE INDICATED. HAVE THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS TO 20 NEAR THE COAST AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO
40 PERCENT OVER THE FAR NORTH...INTERIOR AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND A FEW OF THESE
COULD MOVE INTO LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOSTLY INTO THE 70S...BUT AN ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD COULD KEEP SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH SOME
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOME DURING THE DAY WITH THE THE FAVORED AREAS TO
SEE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND OVER THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE
50 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE...THEN
GENERALLY 30 TO 50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S NORTH
AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE AND REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE (PWATS AOA 2 INCHES). MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY WHILE UNDERCUTTING MOS TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI AS PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES IN SW FLORIDA. STILL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENINGS...HIGHEST IN SW FL.

BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
WITH SCT AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
FEEL LIKE SUMMER DESPITE THE QUICKLY APPROACHING AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THERE
COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHIFT TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD
OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS BEHIND IT SHIFTING TO
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO EASTERLY TO END THE WEEK. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  89  75 /  20  20  40  40
FMY  93  73  91  75 /  40  20  40  40
GIF  92  74  90  73 /  40  20  50  40
SRQ  91  74  89  74 /  20  20  30  40
BKV  92  71  89  69 /  30  20  50  50
SPG  90  78  89  77 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN





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