Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 290742
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. KEEPING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. DURING TODAY SOME
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5
INCHES...WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO
THE COAST AND THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SOME RAIN WILL
BE NEAR THE COAST AND MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOCATED. ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE WEST
OUT INTO THE GULF DURING THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY WE SHOULD
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE REGION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES...TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER SO THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND SOME...BUT
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE IN THIS AREA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
FEATURES TO IMPACT THE REGION TO BE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND BECOMES CUT OFF LOW OVER
LOUISIANA THOUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

DEEPENING E-SE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION AS AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINES WITH SEA/BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WITH BEST COVERAGE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PERSIST...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG SO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD REACH EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...
OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND ERC AND WINDS STAY
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  73 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  71  92  72 /  30  10  50  40
GIF  90  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SRQ  89  71  90  73 /  30  20  40  40
BKV  90  67  91  69 /  20   0  50  30
SPG  88  75  89  76 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.