Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 291906
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
306 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AS A
 RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPORT
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA...CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT NORTH
NORTHEAST WINDS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL COME IN 8 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE HIGHS TOMORROW WILL COME CLOSER
TO AVERAGE BUT STILL 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. AVERAGE
TEMPS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
THIS FRONT HOWEVER WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL SENSIBLE
WEATHER AS THE UPPER SUPPORTING ENERGY QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION
AND THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. WE ARE LOOKING
AT PERHAPS AN ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO MAKING IT DOWN INTO
LEVY/CITRUS/SUMTER COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
DISSIPATES...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY TUESDAY
BASICALLY REGION-WIDE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE
FINAL MORNING TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...HOWEVER GOOD DIURNAL MIXING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD DIURNAL SWING IN
TEMPERATURES AS MANY SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST REACH THE LOWER
80S. THE LIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ALONG AREA BEACHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL STAY GENERALLY UNAMPLIFIED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES TO SPEAK UP. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...BUT QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE TYPICAL COOLER SPRING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THAT THESE SEA BREEZES CAN
POP A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED IN SCALE AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS WEEKEND IS
SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS TO HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM
TO PUSH A DEFINED COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL OR STRONGER STORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE BULK OF
THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT PASSING NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THE MAIN
IMPACT THIS FRONT MAY HAVE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER WOULD BE TO
ELEVATED WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO CAUTIONARY OR
EVEN LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTH
THROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCING PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH AND WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
WEEK PRODUCING WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION BRINGING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 20S TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER
LOWER ERC VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY TO
ISSUE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE RISE BY
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  75  61  79 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  52  80  58  82 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  49  78  59  82 /   0   0   0  20
SRQ  52  74  60  77 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  41  76  52  79 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  58  74  64  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA


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