Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
FXUS63 KTOP 222108

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Surface low pressure continues to exit northeast Kansas moving
northeast towards the Great Lakes region. Gusty northwest winds
have been seen through the afternoon with gusts around 40mph
observed as a tight pressure gradient is observed over the area.
Light to moderate snow/rain has been falling across north central
Kansas this afternoon making its way east as it rotates counter-
clockwise around the low pressure. The greatest snowfall totals
still look to be in north central Kansas and near the
Kansas/Nebraska border, with amounts just over two inches
expected with locally higher amounts. Advisory has been expanded a
few more hours in time and farther eastward, to capture
additional snowfall amounts in windy conditions that will likely
have some impact on school and work commutes.

Still expect hazardous road conditions and lower visibilities as
this snow falls due to the high wind speeds between 20-25 mph
sustained through midnight. As precipitation moves northeast out
of the area, a changeover to all snow will be seen as temperatures
fall below freezing. Expect all snow to come to an end after
midnight tonight. There could still be some slick spots on any
untreated, wet roads so cautious travel is advised.

Winds decrease overnight as the low departs and lows will fall into
the low to mid-20s.  Skies clear from west to east with mostly clear
skies expected shortly after sunrise. Dry conditions will persist
tomorrow with diurnal heating bringing temperatures into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Weather pattern quiets considerably for the extended period as
temperatures slowly moderate into the late week. A weak passing
shortwave trof Tuesday night shifts winds around to the west then
southwest for Wednesday. After a night of lows in the 20s, highs
rise into the upper 40s, with lows the following night holding in
the upper 20s to low 30s as southwest surface winds continue. By
Thursday and Friday, highs rise into the middle to upper 50s and
lows rise to above freezing by Thursday night. Upper trof that was
more amplified in previous runs of both the GFS and EC for Friday
has dampened, with resulting lesser impact on temperatures and
lower rain chances for late Friday.

Highs progged in the middle to upper 40s for the weekend behind the
passing upper trof, which is still above normal for this time of


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Reduced conditions are expected as a mix of rain and snow moves
across northeast Kansas.  A weakening band of mixed precipitation
will move over TOP/FOE between 18-19Z. Snow will move back into
MHK at 20Z and spread eastward towards TOP/FOE. Winds will stay
gusty from the northwest through the early morning tomorrow.
Visibilities will improve before ceilings with stratus completely
clear of the area by 11-13Z.


Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for



AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.