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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211628
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
928 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PARK OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY AND BRING PERSISTENT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK
TODAY...DIP SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY THEN REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
&&

.UPDATE...BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A BIT
THICKER AND MORE EXTENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO I UPDATED SKY
COVER GRIDS FOR TODAY ACCORDINGLY.  -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
325 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOWED THE ANTICIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A PROLONGED
INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN AS IT PARKS OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE CLOSED LOW AND BRUSHING THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
IN TIMING OF VORT LOBES CIRCULATING AROUND IT. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20-30 MPH WINDS OVER NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDIEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD AND SETS UP A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. A FAIRLY STRONG BELT OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTIES UP ACROSS
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 40 MPH LOOK LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY THE SPRING MOUNTAINS/RED ROCK CANYON.
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THERMAL
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE THURSDAY THOUGH A VORT LOBE
MAY BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
RESULT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK TODAY THEN LOWER A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OVER MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS
A WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NON EXISTENT AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WIND AT 8 KTS OR LESS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FAVORABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN IN THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
TODAY AND THEN SPREAD AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY
DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING TIME PERIOD.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW

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