Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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384
FXUS65 KVEF 232104
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
204 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms will persist through the
evening, then moisture and thunderstorm chances will decrease from
west to east on Thursday. High pressure regains control Friday, with
dry and hot weather expected through the weekend.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms approaching Las Vegas so will be brief.
High resolution and convection allowing models correctly forecast
this small area of storms. Despite the overall drying trend expected
tomorrow, the convection allowing models again depict storms from
the Clark County mountains into Mohave and Lincoln Counties. Raised
PoPs in those areas for tomorrow, but not as much as models suggest.
Drying trend should finally win out tomorrow night, with no precip
expected from Thursday night through at least Monday morning. Main
concern shifts to heat over the weekend. MOS numbers keep trending
up a degree or so with each passing day, and it appears that Sunday
and Monday should be the hottest days at this time. Heat Risk grids
are showing more coverage of 3 and 4, which suggests an Excessive
Heat Watch may be needed if trends continue.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Generally winds will be from the east-
southeast this afternoon remaining less than 10-12 kts. Winds may
shift to the south-southwest-west a bit earlier than normal today
with any associated thunderstorm outflows that may reach the
terminal between 21-02Z. There is a slight chance that VCTS could
become -TS between 21-00Z this afternoon, creating slightly lower
ceilings and variable and gusty winds. Otherwise, winds should
follow summertime diurnal trends through the forecast period. Some
FEW to SCT100 are possible this afternoon through the forecast
period, becoming BKN to OVC100 with thunderstorm development near
the terminal.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds should be typical of diurnal trends through the
forecast period but may favor a southerly direction at most
terminals. Slight to moderate chance for VCTS becoming TS at VGT,
HND and DAG this afternoon into the early evening as storms may move
over the terminals. At these terminals, variable and gusty winds
with lower ceilings may be expected with any thunderstorms that
develop. Otherwise, ceilings should remain above 10kft.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Discussion...Morgan
Aviation...Kryston

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