Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 012216
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
315 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH AND NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY LEADING TO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER UTAH AND NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES. A
FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR AN INCH ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THE
AIR MASS REMAINS GENERALLY UNSTABLE TODAY AND CONVECTION WAS
BEGINNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH AS OF THIS WRITING. MEANWHILE THE
NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST OUT OF NORTHWEST
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP GET CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THURSDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN MOST AREAS. THE MODELS DO
AGREE THAT SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR MAY BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DO NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES APPROACHING FRIDAY BUT THE MODELS KEEP MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT BASICALLY SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. SO I WENT WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND ESMERALDA COUNTY WITH AN ENHANCED JET STREAK AND
PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OVER THOSE ZONES.

AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND FROM
THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10-12 KNOTS.
GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL LIKELY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CIGS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 KFT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY
SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM.............ADAIR


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