Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 252145
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Thunderstorm chances will continue through this evening
over northwest Arizona and Lincoln county Nevada and will expand to
include portions of southern Nevada and eastern California Friday
and Saturday. High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions
Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures warming to above normal
levels.
&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Thursday.

An area of low pressure sagging south into Nevada has been
responsible for shower and thunderstorm development over Lincoln and
Mohave Counties as expected. The trough will continue to sag very
slowly south over the forecast area through Saturday. The models are
indicating moisture and marginal instability spread a bit farther
west into the forecast area. The overnight shift already bumped pops
up farther west and south into Clark and Nye Counties and eastern
San Bernardino County which looks pretty good. Still, the best
chances of thunderstorms will be over Lincoln and Mohave Counties.
Temperatures will drop below normal for Friday and Saturday with the
influence of the trough. By Sunday, the trough will move into
Arizona with most of the area becoming dry and stable. There will
still be a slight chance of thunderstorms in eastern Mohave County
due to the proximity of the trough. High pressure will lead to dry
conditions and warming temperatures across the entire forecast area
Monday and Tuesday. The models continue to differ with the pattern
for Wednesday and Thursday and confidence remains low. There is some
agreement that a Pacific trough moving into California will pull
moisture up from the south but timing remains an issue as does the
westward extent of the moisture. I made no changes for now and kept
a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms for portions of Mohave
County for both Wednesday and Thursday along with a dip in
temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southwest winds 15-25 kts will continue
into this evening along with just a few clouds around 12k feet.
Winds will diminish to around 10kts overnight and then increase once
again after 18z Friday out of the south to southwest winds speeds 10-
18kts.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...South breezes of 10-20 knots will be common across much
of the region into this evening with gusts to 30 knots. FEW-SCT
clouds across much of the area. Scattered thunderstorms over
northern Mohave and eastern Lincoln Counties through 05z this
evening. Isolated to scattered storms will again be possible Friday
afternoon across those same areas. South to southwest winds up to 20
kts also developing Friday afternoon.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&
$$

Discussion...Harrison
Aviation...Gorelow

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