Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 251647 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
946 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will move across the deserts today
continuing the trend of well below normal temperatures and bringing
a better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to California
and portions of central and southern Nevada. April temperatures
quickly warm to May and June levels by the weekend as the more
active weather pattern stays north of the area. Hot, early summer
like conditions are possible by the middle of next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Upper low moving into southern California this morning
with board scale ascent occurring over the Mojave Desert and
southern Great Basin. Assessment of convective conditions later
today shows greatest CAPE and lowest LI`s forecast across Inyo and
western San Bernardino Counties. Also, conditions favorable in an
area of deformation across central Nevada. Based on NamBufr sounding
for Barstow with support from the HRRR increased POP primarily
across the western Mojave Desert for later this afternoon and
evening. No changes elsewhere.

Upper low will track east across the lower Colorado River valley
into western Arizona tonight. Residual moisture and instability will
lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain Thursday afternoon.
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...216 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night.

Low pressure off the southern Cal coast will swing inland today and
move across southern California into east central Arizona. Model
instability and moisture progs favor shower/thunderstorm activity
over the higher terrain along the western half of the area during
the day shifting to the eastern mountains tonight. The low will be
east of the area Thursday however an embedded disturbance over
central Nevada will lead to a few showers/storms developing in the
northern zone areas on Thursday. There is a chance that a few of
them could develop over the Sierra and move southward into southern
Nevada later Thursday afternoon and evening. Northwest flow sets up
over the area Friday but a slight chance of showers is still
possible over the northern areas.

Winds to should be light in most areas but we could see an increase
in southerly winds over Mohave county ahead of the low. The western
Mojave desert will again see increased, gusty winds later this
afternoon into the evening hours. Mainly light winds are expected
Friday except for a late push of westerly winds into western San
Bernardino county.

Temperatures today will remain on the cool side as the low passes
across the southern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will
rebound around 5 degrees on Thursday and another 5 degrees on Friday
which will bring us closer to what should be expected for this time
of year but still on the cool side of normal.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

Longwave troughing will remain locked across the western CONUS
through the holiday weekend, providing breezy south winds and
slightly below normal temperatures. Still expect just enough remnant
moisture and destabilization each afternoon for a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada and southern
Great Basin mountains through about Monday. The pattern will then
change as the trough departs and high pressure builds over the west,
which will create a sharp warming trend. The 00Z suite of guidance
is in quite good agreement with this pattern change. Temperatures
several degrees above normal currently appear likely to end the
month of May and welcome June.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...VFR through the period. Winds will
generally favor typical diurnal trends through the period...south
overnight and east in the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Lighter winds are expected today along with a better
chance of more widespread precipitation mainly over the higher
terrain of western San Bernardino and Inyo Counties as well as
southern Nevada.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Pierce
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Salmen
LONG TERM.............Paddock

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