Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 012204
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
304 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY CREEP BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY
NEXT MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE
COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BRINGING A
LITTLE SHOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT AT THIS TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON BUT WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWEST
TOWARD ARIZONA AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES UP THE BAJA COAST. HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO GET DEPENDS ON A TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND WHERE THE STRONGER AND DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. FOR NOW THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY IN
MOHAVE COUNTY...ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD START TO SEE A FEW MORE AFTERNOON
CLOUDS. THE MODELS REALLY START TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS NEVER REALLY PUSHES THE MOISTURE WEST
OF THE COLORADO RIVER. THIS IS ALSO DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND IF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN OVERCOME THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS OVER MOHAVE
COUNTY...BUT NOTHING WEST OF THE RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z. A PERIOD OF EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AGAIN 16Z-20Z
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTH 10-15 KTS MUCH OF TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MUCH OF TUESDAY.
LIGHTER DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...GORELOW

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