Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 210521
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
921 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY AND MILD SUNDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...THEN A STORM SYSTEM WILL
PASS NEAR THE AREA CHRISTMAS DAY AND USHER IN A ANOTHER ROUND OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A 130 KT+ JET AS ANALYZED AT 250 MB IN THE 00Z SUNDAY
UPPER AIR PLOT WAS PUSHING INTO OREGON AND SHOOTING A BUNCH OF A
HIGH CLOUDS INTO AREA. THESE WILL NOT GO AWAY ANYWHERE TONIGHT AND
LIKELY LAST MUCH OF SUNDAY AND I ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR
TOMORROW TO SHOW A SLOWER CLEARING TREND.

OTHERWISE, A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS COLORADO CITY AND DESERT ROCK ONCE
AGAIN SHOW CLOSE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS THIS EVENING AND THE 00Z KVEF
SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER HIGH DECEMBER PWAT OF 0.63 INCH. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS AROUND TONIGHT, RADIATION FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GET
GOING BUT A FEW PATCHES OF LOWER STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AROUND
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, LOTS OF DEW AND FROST WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING (WITH THE FROST FORMING WHERE WE AT LEAST DROP TO OR
BELOW 37 DEGREES). DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO ALIGN WITH THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS IN
GREAT SHAPE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 17Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10 KTS RETURN. MAINLY
BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS 10K FEET
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARD THE FEW-SCT RANGE
AT AOA 10K FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND TREND TOWARD
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INYO, ESMERALDA, CENTRAL
NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING
CHANCES OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ON SUNDAY. CIGS AS LOW AS 6K-8K
FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OTHERWISE MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 15K FEET WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS 10K-12K FEET.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 229 PM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST AND A
DIRTY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH ONLY VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE THICKER CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS.

THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE...WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. A WEAK SYSTEM DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTH LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AND NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA INTO UTAH AND COLORADO AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND LEAD TO A COUPLE OF CHILLY
DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ON CHRISTMAS EVE OR
CHRISTMAS DAY SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONE
MOUNTAINS BUT COULD SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...SALMEN

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