Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 231749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1249 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Several issues to contend with again today, including the continued
heat and humidity and convective potential. 08z data analysis shows
the frontal boundary lying across northern IA, with satellite fog
enhancement showing mid cloud ACCAS developing along and north of
it. Some of the mesoscale models indicate that patchy light showers
may develop under these, as has occurred already 3 nights in a row.
Meanwhile, a larger complex of storms was going from SD into NE, as
well as some spotty action over western IA. RAP/HRRR and many of the
CAM solutions latch onto this and bring a band of convection through
the region this afternoon. Meanwhile, NAM/GFS/ECMWF all develop
convection along the northward moving front over our general area
this afternoon. Either way, it appears there will be a good chance
for some convection developing along this leading warm advection
wing. Previous forecasts were playing this potential, and see no
reason to deviate. This plays into the heat forecast too. We still
have very sultry dewpoints in place across the southwest 2/3 of our
forecast area, and temperatures remain pretty warm as well. There
has been a bit of a respite from the humidity from central into
northern WI. As the front edges northward today, expect the
humidity to surge back in those spots though. So with highs again
expected to get into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and dewpoints well
into the 70s, the heat index pushes the century mark once again.
This is borderline for Heat Advisory criteria, but with the
convection and associated cloud cover coming in, there is potential
to end up a bit cooler than forecast. Besides, our message for the
past week has been Hot Hot Hot, so I think people have the idea by
now. So we will not be adding any headline at this point.

Once this initial round of convection moves through, another larger
complex of storms is expected to initiate across western MN as a
potent short wave tracks along the international border toward
Winnipeg by tonight, and drags a cold front into the Gopher State.
Plenty of instability for rapid development, and as these mature
will become a wind threat as they move east into the local area
tonight. Precipitable Water will be in excess of 2" and warm cloud
depth will be 4-5Kft. So these storms will once again provide heavy
rainfall. The area has been hit with several rain complexes over
the past week, but for the most part have hit different areas, so
our flooding risk was spread out. So given that fact, and the
progressive nature of these, do not feel we need a Flood Watch at
this juncture.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Any lingering rain will exit the area Sunday morning as the short
wave trough continues east through Ontario. Surface high pressure
moves in to provide cooler and less humid conditions into Tuesday.
Several weak disturbances will ripple through the flat ridge for the
remainder of the week, each bringing some threat for convection.
Hard to pin down timing on these, so a broad brush approach has been
utilized with the PoP forecast. The strongest signal looks to be
pointing to a short wave trough moving through late Thursday into
Friday, providing perhaps the best chances for organized storms.
Temperatures look to be near or perhaps even a bit below normal for
the latter portion of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Showers and storms continue to develop along the warm front that
was in the I90 corridor early this afternoon. Based on radar
trends and guidance from the 23.16Z HRRR expect this will continue
into the middle or late afternoon hours before possibly getting a
break in the activity. Confidence in this break is not high so
have continued a VCTS at both sites into the early evening as the
HRRR shows scattered redevelopment along the warm front into the
early evening. Attention then turns to the incoming cold front and
whether there will be any activity along it that impacts the
airports. The signals in the models are strongly suggesting that
what develops along the front well to the northwest of the area
this afternoon will dissipate as it moves into a diminished CAPE
environment or stay closer to the short wave trough and remain
north of the airports. The 23.15Z CR-HRRR still suggest some
convective activity could make it with the cold front overnight so
will drop back from the categorical mention of TSRA to a VCTS.
MVFR conditions will be possible with the showers and storms with
some occasional IFR if the rain is heavy enough. The cold front
will come through Sunday morning swinging the winds around to the
west and returning VFR conditions.


.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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