Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 251130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Upper level trough/closed 500 mb low sits over the southern plains
early this morning, progged to take a somewhat slow trek northeast
into the eastern great lakes by Sunday night. The better
frontogenetic/thermodynamic forcing has shifted east, as has the
upper level jet support. The stronger low level jet/moisture
transport has also moved off to the east. All that said, still have
the upper level low and its various ripples/spokes of energy to
rotate across the region for today and Sunday. NAEFS pw anomalies
still +1 to +2. Plenty of saturation to play with. Expect the
showers to persist, especially tonight through the better part of
Sunday. Would normal expect minor additional accumulations over the
next couple days with the weak forcing, but the anomalously moist
airmass, could still result in 1/4 to 1/2 inch amounts for some.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Variable pattern at the moment for next week with the
northern/southern branches of the upper level flow both coming into
play......or not. Southern stream looks fairly active, with both the
GFS and the EC moving at least two 500 mb troughs from the desert
southwest to the oh valley/great lakes regions. They differ in
timing and placement. Latest EC more aggressive compared to some
previous runs with bringing a shortwave into the region for Thu -
resulting in a wet day. The GFS is south. On the otherhand, the GFS
would suggest more action locally from the northern branch, dropping
a shortwave trough across the northern plains-upper mississippi
river valley Fri night-Sat. The GFS...stays north. Volatile,
springish pattern which will likely swing back and forth in their
potential solutions/outcomes until we get closer to the actual day.
Will let the consensus continue to detail the pcpn chances.

As for temps, at or above normal for late March still looks on track
for next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Low stratus and periodic rain showers will persist through the
duration of the period. Expect ceilings at KRST to generally
remain IFR with periods of LIFR possible today while KLSE will be
MVFR and possibly dip into IFR at times. Showers will increase
later today, most likely to impact KLSE this afternoon. In
addition, ENE winds will gust up to 25 kts today. By tonight, as
winds begin to lighten, some fog is possible, although confidence
is not high on the degree of visibility reductions. However,
IFR/LIFR ceilings likely will persist tonight, possibly remaining
low MVFR for a time at KLSE.




LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...JM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.