Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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567
FXUS63 KARX 280832
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
332 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEVERAL CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD: RAIN TODAY...TAPERING
OFF TONIGHT...ANY POSSIBLE CLEARING...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND EVEN
SOME PATCHY FROST IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STACKED LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN IA WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS/T-STORMS SPIRALING AROUND IT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
A GENERAL DECREASE IN RAIN RATES AS THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WEAKEN.
EVEN SOME REPORTS OF SNOW MIXING IN ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
EDGES WHERE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS ALLOWING EVAPORATIVE COOLING
TO ALLOW SNOW TO SURVIVE THE TRIP DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTY OF DYNAMIC LIFT TODAY...AS WELL AS
ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND SHEARS OUT AND
WEAKENS. EXPECTING ANY REMAINING RAIN TO BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT...AND
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO IF/WHEN WE WILL GET ANY CLEARING.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING CLEARING COULD BEGIN OVER
NORTHEAST WI AS DRY EASTERLY FLOW WORKED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. BUT RECENT SOLUTIONS HAVE SUGGESTED THE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD ON LONGER. IF WE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COOLER AND
THERE WOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST. BUT IF THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS
REMAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH NO FROST. HAVE OPTED
TO MOVE TOWARD THE CLOUDY/WARM THINKING...AND HAVE REMOVED THE FROST
POTENTIAL. ALSO...DESPITE PLENTY OF RECENT RAIN...THERE SHOULD
ENOUGH WIND AND ADVECTION OF DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO THE
REGION TO PRECLUDE MUCH FOG. BUT IF WINDS DO SLACKEN MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...FOG WILL BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BUT WE GET SQUISHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS FOR
SATURDAY. ONE CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO EJECT
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL. THE
PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...
BUT THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MAY HELP TO SHUNT SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS
AND FRONTONGENIC FOCUS OVER THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BOOSTED
POPS UP FOR SATURDAY...WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT TO LOWER
POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WE ARE
CAUGHT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
WILL PROBABLY NEED HIGHER CHANCES AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING JUST YET.

IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR WARMER WEATHER...IT MAY BE SHOWING UP LATER
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN ALLOW RIDING TO MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LOW PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA NEB WILL CONTINUE A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT THRU THU MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE
OH VALLEY THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE 925-700MB
LOW AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS IA TONIGHT/THU MORNING WILL SPREAD
INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MVFR/LCL IFR TOWARD MORNING AND
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THU. STRONGER LIFT IS GOING TO BE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF THU. THIS
AND MORE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB...SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...TO 18-21Z THU. PERIODS OF
MVFR VSBYS IN THE -SHRA AND BR AS WELL LATER TONIGHT/THU...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE KRST. VSBYS AT SITES
LIKE RST MAY EVEN LOWER INTO IFR FOR A TIME THU MORNING. CONFIDENCE
SO-SO ON THIS AND LEFT OUT OF THE KRST TAF FOR NOW. TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH WINDS REMAINING
EAST/NORTHEAST AND GUSTY AT TIMES TONIGHT/THU MORNING. GRADIENT
RELAXES FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

WATER LEVELS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE RISING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT CRESTS WITHIN
2-5 FEET OF FLOOD STAGE ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY.
THOSE WITH INTERESTS OR CONCERNS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD KEEP AN
EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY...MW



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