Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 241655
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1055 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Very mild day for those chasing Black Friday deals with 925 mb temps
approaching +15c this morning and NAEFS 850 mb temp anomalies around
+2. Likely won`t mix up to 850mb, but 900mb doable per bufkit
soundings. Temperatures have been climbing early this morning - and
likely kicking the daylight hours off already in the low/mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to around 60 are expected - with record temps at a
few locations not out of the question.

Cold front slated to slide through during the afternoon, with a good
slug of colder air behind it. In addition, expecting at least some
high/mid level clouds to start filtering into the west, post the
front. A couple caveats to today`s warming. Overall though, its
shaping up to be a day 15 to 20 degrees above the late November
normal.

The aforementioned front`s parent upper level shortwave is slated to
spin across the region later this afternoon, with the trough axis
swinging east by approx 03z Sat. Decent lift with the front and the
shortwave, but pcpn chances will hinge on the saturation. North-
south running x-sections and soundings keep the deeper moisture in
the north, a consistent signal in the models. How far south they
have placed qpf has varied over the past few days - but they all
agreed the higher chances will hold north of I-90. Will keep that
trend going in the forecast. Temps will keep what falls as rain with
minimal amounts.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

November looks to round out on a mild/seasonable note as both the EC
and GFS favor building broad upper level ridging to zonal flow for
next week. Temperatures look to be at or above the seasonable
normals as a result.

The threat for pcpn looks fairly subdued (minor). A cold front is
slated to sweep across the region on Tuesday. The deeper, stronger
upper level forcing is progged to hold farther north - with
frontogenetic lift along the boundary fairly weak at this time.
Moisture is a limiting factor with the deeper saturation trending to
hold well north.

The GFS and EC then suggest an upper level shortwave could/would
lift northeast out of the desert southwest - spinning across the mid
Mississippi river valley wed night/thu. Another piece of energy in
the northern branch of the upper level flow would skim across
northern parts of the region. Both look to spark some pcpn -
although mostly just outside of the local area. On the whole, will
have some small chances for pcpn next week, but current pattern not
suggestive of a widespread, significant threat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A cold front stretched from northeast Minnesota into eastern South
Dakota late this morning. This front will progress steadily east
and move across the area during the late afternoon and early
evening. Gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will swing
around to the west/northwest behind it and remain gusty into the
evening as good low level lapse rates will be in place for a few
hours behind the front. The front will bring in a period of mid
level clouds with a VFR ceiling for both airports. There could
also be some sprinkles or a short period of light rain, but
confidence on how far south these will extend is not high enough
to include in the forecast at this time. Even if they do occur,
they will not produce a visibility restriction. Ridging will build
in behind the front to scatter out the clouds and allow the winds
to settle down overnight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04



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